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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:41
  #4681 (permalink)  
 
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Admittedly the Malaysian military radar operators did not bring their top game to the 0 dark 30 shift -- and yes, targeting assets to the T7 when it was still in range might have shed more light on the situation.

But remember that an interceptor has limited range and would have to head back home for gas.

Something with longer range would have to be dispatched, but most maritime patrol aircraft are turboprops and at best could only hope to pick up a blip receding at max range. However an interceptor or patrol aircraft might possibly have given us a track to work from.

With that track, other countries could have been put on a timely alert along with some indication of where the T7 would be.

The SAR authorities have been doing their best with very limited information. It took several days for the engineers to develop arcs from the 8:11 ping.

Perhaps it takes that much more time to work out arcs from the earlier pings, but yes, we would like to see all of them. Once those arcs are produced, there's a bunch more work to work out possible courses. It would not surprise me if some heavily caffeinated programmers are busy developing and testing code.

On a personal note, I had once developed some code to speed up transaction rates in a pseudo-reentrant environment. The first test in a single thread environment worked and I went off on an extended weekend to hear on return from my supervisor that my new code was in production.

I immediately told him that the multi thread test had not been done. We held our breath waiting to see if Data Control found the transaction counts off at the end of the day.

They did not complain -- because the person who did the check was off work. A few days later customers began complaining that their deposits had been lost. A few seeing that their large withdrawal had not been posted helped themselves to the extra money and were not seen again

Lots of holes in the Swiss cheese anytime there's a complex human endeavor.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:41
  #4682 (permalink)  
 
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MPN11 said...

...it appears that these detected ACARS 'pings' are the definitive article, the 11th tablet of stone and thus an eternal truth? These signals to a satellite are 110% reliable data? ... and the lack of any information on previous pings should be regarded as unimportant, or potentially disturbing a pre-conceived idea?

In consequence all other possibilities are to be discarded, because these 'pings' are deemed so absolute that no other feasible options can be considered?

I earnestly hope that the subsequent investigation will be more rigorous.
The 'pings' were covered in today's (Sunday) press conference. 6 handshake signals provided by Inmarsat, data analysed by independent teams from the US and UK, both teams arrived at the same conclusion regarding the final ping location arcs which resulted in the diagram and associated information released yesterday.

Sounds pretty rigorous to me.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:49
  #4683 (permalink)  
 
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Light reaction to terror possibility

Isn't the overt response of the US and other possible target nations (India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, China etc) extremely muted to the possibility, no matter how remote, that terrorists somewhere just might have a 777 in their posession?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:52
  #4684 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dmba View Post
Actually I'm commenting on developing events instead of focusing on things that have been ruled out.

I certainly haven't created anything. I have no vested interest in either protecting pilots nor slating them without any thought.

It may be a bitter pill to swallow that 'one of your own' may be the culprit.

I apologise if this is too difficult for you to stomach and I'd be happy to sit back and watch some desperately scrounge around for technical fault reasons that will, in the end, have had nothing to do with this...
I am pretty sure that from reading air accident reports over the years there have been more mistaken judgments of pilot error that the reverse.

The last we;; known ones was the chinook that crashed enroute Ni to Scotland, it took years to clear the pilots even to the point it looked like a cover up of known technical defect/deficiencies.

Certainly was a time that rather than have unexplained accidents it was decalaed as pilot error.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:56
  #4685 (permalink)  
 
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I've been wondering if the reason we've only seen the "arc" for the supposed final ping is because a prior ping had exactly the same "arc". Suggesting the plane was on the ground for at least an hour if so.

Also I wonder if there's enough info anywhere to get doppler shift on the received signal. If not from the Inmarsat satellite then perhaps some less spoken about assets.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:57
  #4686 (permalink)  
 
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What lies behind these references to hangars on Diego Garcia?
Are people here suggesting that the US has engineered a kidnapping/hijacking and is now hiding the aircraft in a USAF base??

What are you people smoking?

With a president who talks loudly and carries a big feather
who cant even protect innocent civilians being slaughtered wholesale
you suggest that they have done something as evil as this?

Is it sheer stupidity or just abuse of hallucinogenic chemicals?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:57
  #4687 (permalink)  
 
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So much Speculation

Based on the pinging. I've read this whole thread over the days, and haven't commented because I'm not a pilot, just a retired ATC (28years).

I want to say too much weight , in my opinion , is being given to the pinging and radar track(s). A lot of room for misinterpretation of data.

None of the suicide stuff makes any sense. A coordinated takeover is improbable because of what do you do with the acft once you have it? If they're so smart to think of everything, why not just steal a plane off a ramp? It happens a lot. A smaller group of people involved for something like that and they could fly wherever, on legitimate FP and no one would know and they could use it for whatever.

On the tech side, avionics/electronics have been shown to do weird stuff when shorting out or on fire. Humans do odd things when hypoxic, especially if not aware. Confusion, smoke, who knows. I am NOT surprised at ALL that no contact with ATC was made if difficultly arose. You pilots don't do that. In my experience, I never had a ATP tell me about jack until they were way down the decision/action list.

It is natural I guess, but it is a shame this crew are being speculated about on such iffy evidence and extremely doubtful data. The Maylasian Government info is dubious. Too many factors. I think it is possible this one will be unsolved until/unless debri/bodies found. And I lean towards catastrophic inflight incident; fire, decompression, who knows.

Mods; feel free to delete. I just wanted to weigh in.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:58
  #4688 (permalink)  
 
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Last night Indian newspapers suggested not all radar units were "awake" (I posted a link). The longer this sad, sorry affair goes on the harder it feels to accept any official statement on face value. I am not usually paranoid, but there is a feeling of "positioning" about this, at a level much higher than pax and crew.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 18:59
  #4689 (permalink)  
 
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wild goose

Trick is to filter out the BS.


Don't reply or acknowledge, it only empower's them.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:00
  #4690 (permalink)  
 
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If the transponder was not accessible from the cockpit then how would the pilots enter the squawk - I had around 4 different squawks coming back from China last night and how would they ident when asked by ATC?
Would that B777 have Sat phones or internet aboard for PAX use - surely if a hijack was the case someone would have made a call. If it landed somewhere, someone would have got a phone signal. My phone often gets a signal below FL80 if i forget to turn it off.
Could a hostie have been last person alive, like the Helios 737 depresurisation, have been trying to tune a radio to request help and accidentally turned off the XPNDR? Knocked he controls and sent it off course
How much fuel was ordered? Flight Plan fuel or a load more to take it somewhere? If you were going to Hijack your own A/C then surely you'd take more fuel?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:03
  #4691 (permalink)  
 
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Codyblade

I guess,
but these bored fools who now build the foundations for their next hare brained conspiration theory,
use the adage that a lie told often enough becomes the truth
They are one of the melanomas on the skin of our modern age.
See the nonsense about 9/11...
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:03
  #4692 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by wild goose
What lies behind these references to hangars on Diego Garcia?
One could postulate a terrorist inspired crash into the flight line at DG, taking out numerous B-52s and/or KC-135s.

That would, of course, require an anti-US mindset focussed perhaps on activity in Afghanistan (or elsewhere).

Somehow I'm not quite joining up the dots on that, unless the intended act originated in the passenger cabin. But there is no evidence to date. At least it's a possible target, though.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:05
  #4693 (permalink)  
 
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Quite. If you lock the ee bay someone has to have the keys. As it is, one or more persons on the flight deck are being suspected for their involvement (whether right or wrong and I do not judge). They would have the keys anyway. A locked flight deck still lets one or more person with access to the control surfaces to do things they shouldn't do if they are so inclined. Unless you have a "drone" you will always have this risk.

Some of the initial reports wondered if a drone could have had a mid-air with mh370. I know nothing about drones - are they so big/can access that Fl and really create a total loss?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:11
  #4694 (permalink)  
 
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Passenger O2 supply endurance

For those who consider hypoxia in their theory.
According to google:
Some 777s have chemical O2 generators.
Chemical Oxygen generators on 777 last 22 minutes once they are activated.
There are approx 170 generators on 777. (3 generators per seat row?)
The chemical reaction commences when passengers pull down on the masks after the masks have been deployed from the ceiling. So one generator does a few masks. Supply is not regulated and will be exhausted after 22 minutes even if only one mask is in use.
There are at least 10 sets of portable oxygen cylinders with 15 min endurance, for cabin crew use.
Flight crew oxygen is independent and has 2 hour endurance.


Therefore in theory it is possible for cabin crew or passengers to survive for an extended period by moving from an expired supply to one that has not been activated and so on. With luck there would be a few spare in business and first class. In economy where passengers tend to spread-out into empty rows. it is probable that all generators would be activated shortly after being deployed.

However if the O2 supply for the flight crew is as stated it is unlikely anyone in the back would have the fortune to successfully swing from one supply to the next for two hours.

Confirmation that the above applies to MH370 anyone..?

Whilst on the subject, do all newer aircraft have bottled air supply for passengers? If so is it regulated somehow, lasting longer if in use by fewer passengers?
Do the loos in 777s each have a individual generator?



Mickjoebill

Last edited by mickjoebill; 16th Mar 2014 at 19:46. Reason: Added that not all 777s have chemical generators
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:12
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Can a Drone Bring down a Jetliner

Some drones are the size of light aircraft and yes several jets have been brought down by light aircraft collisions in the past

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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:13
  #4696 (permalink)  
 
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They would have the keys anyway.
Yes, but then the perpetrator(s) wouldn't have planned it that way...they'd have found some other way to meet their objective (assuming they have the information and skills, which is what we are being told). If you block one avenue, the bad guys go down another. Same with tax, burglary, vote-rigging,.....
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:13
  #4697 (permalink)  
 
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Diego Garcia hangars not big enough for 777-200.

I guess the theory there is that there was something on the aircraft that the USA did not want to fall into Chinese hands and somehow, aircraft was redirected to the one place nobody would monitor or track it, aside from the US Navy themselves.

Unfortunately, if you can't hide the aircraft, that does fall apart fairly quickly.

It's 'James Bond' plot stuff, nevertheless, one wonders to what lengths USA would go to stop certain technology going to Chinese superpower?

The Chinese deny it entered their airspace, but you would if you were hiding the aircraft at a Chinese airbase, having arrived at night, for whatever reason.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:14
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Funding

Now that it appears that Boeing itself is not at fault, does it imply that there will be less funding to retrieve wreckage / boxes ?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:23
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The 'pings' were covered in today's (Sunday) press conference. 6 handshake signals provided by Inmarsat, data analysed by independent teams from the US and UK, both teams arrived at the same conclusion regarding the final ping location arcs which resulted in the diagram and associated information released yesterday.
I wonder why earlier pings don't deserve much attention. They could at least tell us whether it is the northern arc or the southern one which should be taken into consideration.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 19:23
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Isn't the overt response of the US and other possible target nations (India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, China etc) extremely muted to the possibility, no matter how remote, that terrorists somewhere just might have a 777 in their posession?
Not really, or?
From all the countries in your list, only China is the one where the aircraft could have actually gone to. What would you expect China to do? Admit that they saw no unidentified AC on their radar? Or say that they saw one, but didn't care? (How long are military radar tracks stored anyway? Days? weeks?)
Just imagine a terror attempt gone bad. Instead of putting a plane down with 280 dead bodies (of whom 150 are chinese) at the end of the runway in Urumqi, the terrorist didn't make it and crashed somewhere in the Xinjiang. Would China ever announce that they found the plane if the would find it there?
And use the 777 later? what do you do with the dead bodies? If not removed, you don't want to go near that plane after the 8 missing days now.

Last edited by num1; 16th Mar 2014 at 19:26. Reason: And just imagine the AC would have been shot down. You cant admit something like that 8 days later. You have to keep quiet.
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