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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:24
  #4481 (permalink)  
 
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Aerobat77

Certainly the most reasoned scenario so far.

All this nonsense about terrorists, robbers or suicide pilots all seem to be based on evidence that is at very best sketchy.

1. "The ACARS/Transponder/Comms were disabled deliberately."

There is no evidence for this and there won't be until the aircraft is found and even then, maybe not.

2. "MH370 flew west at FL295 to avoid other traffic."


This altitude is a guess based on primary radar returns which must allow for a +/- 1000ft error which basically eliminates any supposition based on a '500 ft' level.


3. "The aircraft was skillfully flown from waypoint to waypoint carefully avoiding radar cover".

Again, no evidence for this. Data from a handful of 'pings' and some sketchy radar returns do not show any deliberation in the flightpath either to fly waypoints or to avoid radar. The track shown could just as easily be a random event or even wishful thinking on those trying to 'make the line fit'. Constellations don't really exist in space. They are just human attempts to join up the dots.

A catastrophic failure followed by rapid decompression is still the most likely explanation.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:25
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VinRouge

Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.
Just a moment please. Sputnik was a polar-orbiting satellite, not a geostationary one. And the Americans certainly did not have any geostationary satellites in 1957.

You can track polar orbiters from the ground using doppler shift, yes. But the geometrics of a geostationary satellite at 36 000 km listening to a comparatively slow target at 10 km altitude do not allow a significant doppler shift.

The doppler shift method (also used by COSPAS/SARSAT) is based on being able to track a continuous signal while the satellite passes the target. On the first pass you can get the latitude (point of doppler shift changing from approaching to retreating) and after the next satellite pass and a second fix you may calculate the longitude.

None of this is applicable to MH370 and geostationary satellites.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:29
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Search on hold????

News doing rounds in Indian media that search by Indian ships and aircraft is now on hold TFN due to request by Malay authorities... any more info on this?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:30
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@ Uncle Maxwell

Some aircraft are captured by satellite imagery while in flight. See Google Earth latitude 53.916501 longitude -2.789953 for a good example.
If I understand correctly, this sort of imagery comes from satellites in low earth orbit, which means that each point on the ground is captured briefly and intermittently as a satellite passes overhead, so most airborne aircraft are missed.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:31
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More and more reports coming out of Greece and now Indonesia of potential luggage debris in the Straits of Malacca that a Greek tanker has been tasked to investigate.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:36
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At this point, the probabilities are high that the U.S. government knows more than it is saying, more than it is telling the Malaysians, and probably sharing only with its Echelon partners, the UK and Australia.

There is a reason why the location of all the pings (other than the last) has not yet been publicly released.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:37
  #4487 (permalink)  
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Has anything been said about the operating culture in the airline? Or the operating culture by this pilot?

Was it normal for one pilot to have a nap either on the flight deck or in 1st Class? If the captain told the 1st pilot to go take a nap or said he was going to take a nap, would the other have said no?

PS

What were the pilots doing in their off duty period prior to the flight? Resting or active all day?

Last edited by Pontius Navigator; 16th Mar 2014 at 12:19.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:37
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Henra
That thinking has been repeated here again aind again but after a biref reality check it doesn't hold water.
which terrorists got which publicity that would support their cause?
The world has changed. Terrorists used to want specific goals. That meant they had to identify themselves (or their demands identified them).

Now it is a broader goal. The goal is to create terror.

No one claimed responsibility for 9/11, nor for various incidents since. Terrorist groups have been held responsible, but they haven't claimed responsibility themselves.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:37
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mentions nothing about debris in the Malacca straits or a greek ship
only
According to the announcement, the authorities have been in contact with the governments of countries whose territory the two runways which could be followed by flight MI370.
and a few other already well known facts
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:39
  #4490 (permalink)  
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How does the satellite link on the aircraft know to switch from the IOR to the POR satellite. Any sat wiz kids can tell me how it works? Is it signal strength from the Aircraft or is it signal strength from the Sat itself and then send a handshake change Frequency instruction? If this handshake change freq. instruction is not decoded wouldn't it keep talking to the IOR sat and not the POR one. If this is the case then the omitted 40 degree rings need to be joined again. Which incidentally is right over the airways and initial suspected area of the original search in the South China Sea. Which incidentally hasn't be totally covered by either Nation or agency. Now it is going to be cut short.
Also the other pings in between 01:07am and 08:11am have not been disclosed to us yet.

Is there someone out there who can tell me how Immersat works?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:40
  #4491 (permalink)  
 
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I feel like the people still posting about the possibility of technical failures causing this incident are clutching at straws. Given the comms going off at seperate times and the waypoint flying, surely there has to have been a non-hypoxic human being at the controls.

Also, can't see the motivation for a terrorist group to hijack this particular flight unless they were targetting KL, and from direction plane went, that doesn't seem likely. The theories like the aircraft being hijacked and used to fly into the Hague or another target at a later date make no sense. Why complicate matters by hijacking a plane in KL to commit an act of terror thousands of miles away? It's the equivalent of the 9/11 terrorists hijacking planes in Brazil to eventually attack NYC.

Inside job by member of crew seems to fit the facts so far, but still has plenty of flaws.
If suicide, why not crash the plane immediately? If trying to hide the suicide by crashing in deep ocean, why fly waypoints? An experienced pilot would know that would lead to suspicion falling on crew.
If politically motivated, say Captain Shah hijacking over Anwar Ibrahim verdict, why has there been no note or message explaining actions? If someone was motivated by anger over the trial, they would want the media/public to know the reasons for their actions. One possible explanation for the confusion and red herrings over the past week would be that a document taking responsibility and explaining political motivation was in fact found early on. The Malaysians could have attempted to cover it up to avoid political embarassment and been foiled by pressure from US and others. Wild speculation, I know, but something about the Malaysian government response seems a little strange, more than just garden variety government incompetence.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:40
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Originally Posted by SaturnV
There is a reason why the location of all the pings (other than the last) has not yet been publicly released.
Indeed, that would tell us if the aircraft was flying in circles or a roughly straight line.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:43
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Originally Posted by James7
I believe the aircraft 'landed' in the ocean and is now resting on the sea floor.
Well, can you give us the coordinates then? It will sure make things a lot easier for the Search And Recovery teams because at the moment they don't have a clue. And what's the condition of the FDR and CVR? Is it in good nick?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:48
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@ p.j.m - don't give up the day job. You won't cut it as a super sleuth.

"reportedly the Greek ship "Elka Athina 'interests shipowner Karnezi took position on the existence of objects at sea in the Straits of Malacca!

Specifically, a few hours ago got a message from a coastal station of Indonesia with*position: width 0551 length 09657.5 northern and eastern that found in suitcases belonging to passengers probably fatal flight of Malaysia Airlines.

Master of Elka Athina is Dimitris Zampelis and second officer Dimitris Karagiannis.

Department news defencenet.gr"
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:48
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p.j.m. states that a previous posting mentions nothing about debris in the Malacca straits or a greek ship

True, but if you look at the google translation of the referenced page:
Google Translate
under related news it contains a link:
To ship "Elka Athina" received Stigma suitcases belonging to passengers of Boeing 777

Regards, Peter
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:54
  #4496 (permalink)  
 
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To me, this is looking more and more like a Helios event, where the aircraft entered a hold for hours on a waypoint above the Malacca strait with no one conscious at the controls... My guess is the satellite ping "arcs" are miscalculated and a bit of a red herring.

Last edited by meekmok; 16th Mar 2014 at 12:20.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:56
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XPDR SWITCH

"I can think of no reason you would EVER want to turn off the transponder once in flight, and I think that we will find this option is rapidly removed from the flight deck.. "

The time mine started squawking 7600, despite what it was set for, in the YYZ control zone comes to mind
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:59
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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

As ve3id said. You need the option to turn it off for spurious transmissions/failure. Your transponders are also covered by the MEL (both if the route doesn't require it or coordinated with prior notice)
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:59
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So ... bottom line.
The daylight has gone in the area now...another full day of searching and nothing we are being told about... officially.
There is talk of a Greek freighter picking up debris in the Malacca Strait.
It will be a random discovery that will finalise the location.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 12:00
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Greek news sites posted that :

The greek oil tanker " ELKA Athina " received orders from indonesian station to investigate at Latitude 0551N and Longtidude 09657,5 Ε (malaca straits) suspect things that they look like suitcases. The ship is 3 to 4 hours away from the indicated point.

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