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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:15
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radar data

Yesterday the Transport Minister mentioned that they had received further radar data but that he was not at liberty to discuss it any further. IIRC a journo asked a question about that point, and the Transport Minister just repeated himself, and then added that 'also you have to understand that this data can be sensitive to the countries involved'. Does anybody have any theories as to where this data could be from? It was not mentioned by the TM today IIRC.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:19
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Common guys get a bit of perspective.

World car accident related deaths run at about 1,3 million per year.
World commercial aviation accident deaths at under 500 per year.

Should we wish to spend some money to reduce the number of accidental deaths launching lots more satelites to stream live video from all aircaft at all times would be pretty low down the list. Even if we wished to concentrate in aviation the money would be better spent on recruitment, training and fatigue avoidance.

Legislating in the heat of the moment based on the latest media frenzy is rarely a good idea.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:20
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arearadar and Pontious ... A "guess-ident" by an experienced controller doesn't conform to established rules, of course. UKADGE operators were, in my experience, not quite as picky, but they usually got it right.

I spent much of a tour at 11Gp getting ATC and ADGE talking the same language ... But the full ident procedure of turns and/or squawk doesn't deny the fact that an experienced operator knows what he's looking at, in his own airspace, with a high degree of certainty. Regardless of whether they're talking to each other.

Last edited by MPN11; 20th Mar 2014 at 19:32. Reason: Typo
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:24
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What if this had happened in the North Sea...

It's interesting to hear how many nations now have maritime patrol aircraft in the search area or heading that way. If a B777 disappeared over the North Sea for example, the UK would be seriously embarrassed. Following the retirement of the Nimrod MR2, and the scrapping of the MRA4, the British military would not have a single properly-equipped aircraft to deploy.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:26
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See the BBC reporting earlier this evening that Imarsat gave the Malaysians the info that the 'ping's had been received two days after the disappearance....
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:29
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Daytime

Sunrise and sunset at these coordinates:
2357/ 1207 UTC
Source:
sunrisesunsetmap.com
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:32
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It's interesting to hear how many nations now have maritime patrol aircraft in the search area or heading that way. If a B777 disappeared over the North Sea for example, the UK would be seriously embarrassed. Following the retirement of the Nimrod MR2, and the scrapping of the MRA4, the British military would not have a single properly-equipped aircraft to deploy.
Was thinking the same thing last night... perhaps we could get some lads with binoculars to stand on the loading ramp of an A400M transport... I lost track whether any have been delivered to date, or am I still a few years early?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:36
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Just create a waypoint
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:41
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RE 'Live streaming of 'black-box' data


Interesting post on RAeS website suggesting not 24/7 downlinks but a datadump of FDR/CVR stuff when 'triggered' by abnormal attitudes, rapid descents, depressurisation or even a 'panic button' for crew/FAs


Royal Aeronautical Society | Insight Blog | MH370 ? implications of a ?Black Swan? aviation event
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:45
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Originally Posted by Hunter58
The Economist got it wrong. The only real reason for a live datastream would be that the TV networks can immediately get crews to the crashsite to sell better pictures.
It's just the other way around. TV outlets and yellow press filled much more prime time and pages with an un solved disappearence than they would had with a quick and efficient SAR.

BTW, what did you mention at the end of your posting, old grumpy Hunter ?

Originally Posted by Hunter58
... : the use of the brain.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:48
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I called the Washington Post. Asked about the new ping arcs.

That map the Washington Post just had with new ping arcs on it. I rang them and asked if their data was reliable or just artistic license and we had a discussion about the importance of accuracy before "a thousand geeks waste days plotting potential northern locations as well". So the lady understood what
I meant.

She said their data for the arcs, which they believe to based on an official Malaysian release, was from here..

Here?s what?s odd about that map of MH370?s final satellite ping

Unless I missed something important about that blog post, I wouldn't get too excited.

---
I can't seem to post, so I'll add it to this old message.

Guys,

I'm getting bombarded with complaints about deletions here, a statistically significant number of which are all to do with a certain subject.

If your message stays up longer than ten minutes, you are on the wrong track.

Which is bizarre as I thought that missing altitude data post was really onto something. Perhaps its potential importance was overlooked?

I heard a couple of days ago that there was significant news, and I don't mean a catamaran or a pallet, the deletions all on one subject would tend to confirm things are underway.

Mods? You know how the drug industry suppresses unfavorable trials and how this can be mathematically detected? If your deletions are for operational reasons, they are way too specific and giving the game away. Mix it up a bit. The bad guys can add up as well.

Last edited by Intelshare; 24th Mar 2014 at 04:22.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:56
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The Australian Find

The Australian Government has described the sat image as credible and that the object yet unidentified appears to bear signs of it being awash or semi submerged. Some weight must be attached to such a statement given the gravity of the situation as a whole. There is much speculation as to an object of this size, reported as 24m, remaining on or close to the surface after such a long lapse of time, in the event it may previously have formed part of the aircraft structure.

The following link details the materials and technology applied in the design and construction of the B777 and may give a usefull insight as to the likelihood of wreckage that may be discovered.

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/~jps7/A...0materials.pdf
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 19:56
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Hunter 58,

Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:03
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Originally Posted by papershuffler
Could someone point me to the discussion about the last verbal communication being under the influence of hypoxia? Google and the PPRuNe search engines aren't finding the one I'm thinking of. Something about pilots doing sums in a chamber, the guy next to him in the chamber was continuing 'as normal' chatting and doing sums (which didn't add up) and 'Alright, goodnight' possibly being an automatic reflex?
Thank you.
PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.

I was usually one of the first back on oxygen and saw some trying ineffectually to stop the doctor putting their mask back on. You see their pencil 'scribbling' but in reality just doing nothing.

Automatic reflexes no chance.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:05
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Originally Posted by Elephant and Castle
Common guys get a bit of perspective.

World car accident related deaths run at about 1,3 million per year.
World commercial aviation accident deaths at under 500 per year.
To get a meaningful comparaison from a statistical point of view, one should compare the number of casualties per leg on a trip (i.e. the number of travel occurrences), either by car or by plane, instead of compairing those means of transportation on a time frame or distance basis.

Sorry folks, I'm also getting old and pedantic.

Last edited by ettore; 20th Mar 2014 at 21:55.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:13
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Early in this blog, I made a post concerning radar tracking by naval vessels that may have been close to the flight path of the aircraft. I did not receive a reply from anyone at the time and maybe you could answer the question: would naval vessels be able to track the aircraft using primary returns and, if so, what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?

I was assuming that there would have been some naval vessels, from various countries, operating somewhere in the area believed to have been overflown by the aircraft.
Staggerwing

I absolutely don't know. But I am sure there are some people here who have experience with naval radar ops. However, the radar ist the same, the differences are in the analysis behind. Due to mountaineous terrain our assets were actually adapted navel equipment.

I am sure they could have tracked the aircraft, the problem is more how they could have identified it positively or communicated with someone about it without reveiling their identity.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:16
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Just reported on UK BBC News, Inmarsat apparently gone public with the view that:
(a) they are surprised that the search continued in the S China Sea after last Wednesday, 8 days ago, when they sent the satellite data to Malaysia, as the pings clearly pointed to the two well-known arcs we've seen as the likely location of MAS370
(b) they can't understand why the concentration on two corridors following the two arcs because in their view the aircraft was at one end or the other, not somewhere along the arc, "according to the laws of physics", and most likely to be south as the northern route would have likely been picked up by radar as it crossed several countries.
Up until this point I'd been willing to give the search management the benefit of the doubt but this latest fiasco is pretty much proof that they're muppets.

One question I had was on knowing the turn was entered in the FMC.... was this deduced because the next waypoint was seen in ADS data received before shutdown? Has anything specific (lat/long) been divulged?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:19
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PS, there were two of us talking about it. The 'as normal chatting' would have been as perceived by the subject. Trust me when I say they would have been talking scribble as well as writing it.
I remember it was as if everyone was very drunk. Many even had a headache afterwards. I'd imagine any voice transmissions would be noticeably slurred once judgement was impaired, but maybe it depends on the person.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:24
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VHF vs HF

Does any Aircraft radio station maintain a watch on any of the international HF distress frequencies anymore or has this been overlooked that they work very well especially during this high sun spot cycle? Perhaps VHF was disabled but no one was listening on HF for her.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 20:24
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Radar Line of Sight Range

@Staggerwing you asked "what would be the range if the aircraft remained at a FL greater than FL200?"

Not sure of ship dimensions, so based on a guess, radar antenna 20m high, the line of sight range to a target at FL200 would be about 184 NM. An antenna 10m higher only adds 2 NM.
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