Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[Ian W]

Originally Posted by Speed of Sound

Certainly the most reasoned scenario so far.

All this nonsense about terrorists, robbers or suicide pilots all seem to be based on evidence that is at very best sketchy.

1. "The ACARS/Transponder/Comms were disabled deliberately."

There is no evidence for this and there won't be until the aircraft is found and even then, maybe not.

===SNIP====

This is not true. If the ACARS went through a normal log-off sequence then it was shut down deliberately. If it just stopped reporting then it could have been some other reason. As it has been said multiple times 'the ACARS was deliberately switched off' that implies that it went through a log-off sequence and tidy shut down, something it would NOT have done if the power to it was cut by the circuit breaker being tripped.

[lapp]

Anything else cannot be proven yet!!!!!

Inmarsat/SITA are far east asian? Which face are they saving? Satellite logs and Primary radar is an invention too? Is Elvis Presley still alive ?

[bono]

Radars are there to scare mainly

Pontius Navigator, GlueBall : If we are looking at a situation that national air defense radars are there to mainly scare and not do the job the taxpayers paid millions for, then it makes it a risky proposition. Now, entire world (including some very bad people) are aware that if a giant B777 can get lost without a trace over south east Asia, then their KingAirs or Gulfstreams carrying drugs, weapons etc. can get away with it as well . Two, it displays a lack of seriousness, as the Indian guy in the article said "nothing much happens at night" which made me sit up. The radars need to be constantly monitored by atleast a pair of eyes and incursions by aircraft flying incognito need to be checked out. If Malaysia had scrambled some rusty F16s at a big plane flying around with no identification, not only millions spent on this massive search could have been saved but who knows, those 239 souls might still be with us.

[FIRESYSOK]

To prevent an electrical malfunction (albeit rare) from becoming an electrical fire. Any piece of electronic equipment is a hazard to be the source of an electrical fire. Securing current removes some of the problem. That is why. (Yes, malfunctions that severe are very rare).

There is no checklist that I know of that would direct a crew to put a transponder into 'STBY', which incidentally, does not remove power from the unit.

Any electrical smoke/fire checklist has the crew de-power/isolate busses via the elec panel and/or circuit breakers, not individual components (unless it is definitively known as being the offending kit).

It's obvious we have a lot of armchair wannabes on this thread. Sit tight, the relevant (and knowledgeable) authorities are working overtime on this. They know leagues more than any one person on this site.

[PA28Viking]

I think people are forgetting the far eastern face saving culture. They have locked themselves into a spiral which is rapidly disappearing up their own fundaments.

I posted it before, there are only TWO facts:

1. Where the transponder transmitted last
2. Where the ACARS last transmitted.

Anything else cannot be proven yet!!!!!

Yes - With the transponder we would expect another signal ½ second later and we didn't get it.
But we don't know when the next ACARS message was to be expected.

[acad_l]

Are we really claiming that the only mechanism for orderly shutdown of the ACARS transmission is deliberate crew action? That the software/system does not provide for other paths (consistent with an accident or some failure scenario) leading to an orderly shutdown?

I would say it would take an in-depth knowledge of the system and its software for anyone to be able to make such a claim.

Other question: would it really come to mind to someone who wants to hide to shut down the ACARS? To shut that down first and then ten minutes later, the transponder? The opposite sequence would make so much more sense. Or both roughly at the same time.

[FIRESYSOK]

would it really come to mind to someone who wants to hide to shut down the ACARS?

What you've failed to glean from news reports is that the ACARS sent a final message indicating the active waypoint in the FMS had changed to one that gave the initial left-hand turn.

In other words, it had been programmed to turn by someone in the cockpit. This aircraft did not go into a heading mode. It was a deliberate, and premeditated turn, if the investigators' leaks to the media are to be believed.

This is why they know 'conclusively' that the airplane was hijacked/piloted on its rogue course.

[Surtchris]

If the truth is being told by the various agencies, after so long, it must be nigh impossible to:
a. keep all those people and their mobile phones quiet,
b. select somewhere to land so remote that no one sees it
c. take an aeroplane load of passengers hostage and not tell anyone.

I hear about satellites pinging, weak radar trails, mobile phone batteries etc but that doesn't really prove anything.
I think Occam's Razor comes into play and that would suggest the wreckage of the aircraft is at the bottom of the sea within a few hundred miles of where it was lost on radar. It just hasn't been found yet.




I agree Strake.

The T7 entered service in 1995 (United airlines) and I believe that 1178 are now in service with many more on order. The aircrafts development in the late eighties focused on the use of state of the art materials and composites to reduce the aircrafts weight and improve its economic viability. All believed at the time that these new materials would be tough and stand the test of time. It is evident that this is not the case. Last September authorities issued a global warning regarding the structural integrity of the T7 following reports of cracks and corrosion and the FAA issued a directive requiring airlines to inspect their T7 fleets. For comparison in the late eighties I wrote a prospectus for a company to purchase a BAC 1-11 in an executive jet configuration and I researched the aircraft type’s history of airframe integrity and found in its twenty years of service there was no record of any problem. I last flew on a BAC 1-11 in 2000 and the aircraft was then nearly forty years old.

Until such time as hijacking/ conspiracy theories are proved we might consider the fact that one of the T7’s that developed the cracks and corrosion had only been in service for fourteen years and there may be ongoing problems with structural integrity of the fleet. My gut instinct has never wavered that MH370 lost contact when it suffered a fatal decompression as a result of structural failure and if this is the case then this hasn’t happened since the Comets in the fifties.

The US and Malaysian agenda will be to deflect the public’s attention from the probable cause of the disappearance of the AC for obvious reasons. The radar contacts and satellite comms probably relate to other AC/drones. I hope I am proved wrong.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by FIRESYSOK

There is no checklist that I know of that would direct a crew to put a transponder into 'STBY', which incidentally, does not remove power from the unit.

I was referring to turning something OFF, NOT putting it in standby. Please read for comprehension before you criticize my post. Thanks for your point on this procedure. Criticism of my not quite understanding that point that is accepted.

Any electrical smoke/fire checklist has the crew de-power/isolate busses via the elec panel and/or circuit breakers, not individual components (unless it is definitively known as being the offending kit).

Insight is appreciated.
Surtchris

... we might consider the fact that one of the T7’s that developed the cracks and corrosion had only been in service for fourteen years and there may be ongoing problems with structural integrity of the fleet. My gut instinct has never wavered that MH370 lost contact when it suffered a fatal decompression as a result of structural failure and if this is the case then this hasn’t happened since the Comets in the fifties.

Have you considered why that is?

The US and Malaysian agenda will be to deflect the public’s attention from the probable cause of the disappearance of the AC for obvious reasons. The radar contacts and satellite comms probably relate to other AC/drones. I hope I am proved wrong. I hope I am proved wrong .

You have added quite a bit of dross to a technical assessment on risks of fatigue failure. If you had stuck to that, your PoV would be worthy of consideration. By adding the rubbish, I am not sure what to make of your assessment. Specific to the drones ... if the drones have not gone down, then the folks who run them can identify the signals from the drones and eliminate them from consideration in the signals analysis.

I'll bet a case of Guinness on your position being not the answer.

[lapp]

Other question: would it really come to mind to someone who wants to hide to shut down the ACARS? To shut that down first and then ten minutes later, the transponder? The opposite sequence would make so much more sense. Or both roughly at the same time.

Perhaps it was done surreptitiously, being an uncommon action, the other pilot did not noticed or questioned. Only after few minutes, having incapacitated or killed the other pilot, xponder was shut down and the rest of the actions took place.

[GlueBall]

I can say in my airline there a several layers to ensure the correct people are on the flight deck. Having said this, I suppose anything is possible.

It's hard to get into people's minds. No matter how wholesome, intelligent, kind, a loving parent, loyal, dedicated and competent worker can be: For whatever reasons, one day the employee can snap and come off the rails.

There was a time when big jets had Flight Engineers and when two (2) crew members would ALWAYS be in the cockpit when another visited the Lav or galley. Maybe it's time to have a 3RD pilot in the cockpit, not just for safety, but for sanity.

[Sheep Guts]

Agreed ANA. Let's hope they find it. The search area this weekend has grown way too large. In fact not searchable due to not enough assets.
They need to run live test flight as I've said before, with a B777 fly on same tracks as shown by Military radars and see what results they get with Ground radar stations and satellite reception and returns. I'm sure they are doing something like this now and verifying their data.

[Pontius Navigator]

Originally Posted by The Wawa Zone

would it not be SOP to alert active or inactive RMAF AD radar ?

It should be but does not follow that it is. As argued by Glueball it does not follow that an active radar unit is actually operating with an operational watch staring intently at the screens.

As pointed out, the track was of non-threatening nature and going the 'wrong way' for the lost aircraft.

The inactive radar units would probably be at no higher alert than 2 hours and that presupposed a highly motivated unit and it would be wrong to compare a highly advanced, and vulnerable, air defence system on a high alert posture with Malaysia or Thailand where there is no significant threat. As for driving airliners in to buildings; is that a realistic threat for a Muslim country to consider?

Bono said If we are looking at a situation that national air defense radars are there to mainly scare and not do the job the taxpayers paid millions for, then it makes it a risky proposition.

No, I would argue that the majority of developing world 'air defence systems' are vanity forces and not first rate units such as you would expect in countries that face a significant threat.

Now, entire world (including some very bad people) are aware that if a giant B777 can get lost without a trace over south east Asia,

and you are surprised?

as the Indian guy in the article said "nothing much happens at night" which made me sit up.

Smugglers, yes, military threat, no as not many forces have a 24 hour capability.

The radars need to be constantly monitored by at least a pair of eyes and incursions by aircraft flying incognito need to be checked out.

Can't argue with that, but it presupposes the political will to maintain a highly effective and fully operational 24 hour air policing operation.

[Tourist]

To all those who declare that there is never a reason to turn off a transponder in flight.

I have turned of my transponder in a civil transport type in flight.
It had stopped working and I happened to have both an engineer on board and a spare box on board.

We asked ATC if we could take up a PPOS hold rather than land back on. We turned it off, swapped it out and turned it back on.

Now this is an unlikely situation in a civvy airliner, but if there is one reason to do it, there are likely many more.

[FE Hoppy]

FIRESYSOK

Quote:
To prevent an electrical malfunction (albeit rare) from becoming an electrical fire. Any piece of electronic equipment is a hazard to be the source of an electrical fire. Securing current removes some of the problem. That is why. (Yes, malfunctions that severe are very rare).
There is no checklist that I know of that would direct a crew to put a transponder into 'STBY', which incidentally, does not remove power from the unit.

Any electrical smoke/fire checklist has the crew de-power/isolate busses via the elec panel and/or circuit breakers, not individual components (unless it is definitively known as being the offending kit).

It's obvious we have a lot of armchair wannabes on this thread. Sit tight, the relevant (and knowledgeable) authorities are working overtime on this. They know leagues more than any one person on this site.
FIRESYSOK is online now Report Post

NOT TRUE. All the aircraft I am familiar with have wording equivalent to:

If smoke/fumes/fire source known:
ELECTRICAL POWER (Affected equipment) . . . .REMOVE
If practical, remove power from affected equipment by
switch or circuit breaker in flight deck or cabin.

so busbars are only de-powered when source is unknown and an immediate landing is not available.

[DCrefugee]

Why ACARS first?

would it really come to mind to someone who wants to hide to shut down the ACARS? To shut that down first and then ten minutes later, the transponder? The opposite sequence would make so much more sense. Or both roughly at the same time.

Sure:

-- You're the bad guy. The a/c is at TOC, so it's time to get to work hiding.
-- After the TOC message is sent, shut down ACARS first, since you're still in Malaysian ATC radar coverage.
-- A few minutes later, once the handoff to Vietnam's ATC is attempted by Malaysian ATC, you go further dark by turning off the transponder(s).
-- You're now invisible to ATC secondary radar, the handoff was never completed, and you've bought yourself some extra time since neither Malaysia nor Vietnam can see the a/c (except for a primary target).
-- Do whatever voodoo it is you need to do.

[FIRESYSOK]

Here's what I wrote:

Any electrical smoke/fire checklist has the crew de-power/isolate busses via the elec panel and/or circuit breakers, not individual components (unless it is definitively known as being the offending kit).

Here's what you wrote:

If smoke/fumes/fire source known:
ELECTRICAL POWER (Affected equipment) . . . .REMOVE
If practical, remove power from affected equipment by
switch or circuit breaker in flight deck or cabin.

What is the difference.

[The Wawa Zone]

DC, if Vietnamese ATS gets no reply, it will eventually start a SAR phase, as it probably did. If being voodoo, it would be far better to wait until after contact with Vietnamese ATS, that way you would only be missed after the next reporting point, not immediately.

[EngineeringPilot]

-- You're the bad guy. The a/c is at TOC, so it's time to get to work hiding.
-- After the TOC message is sent, shut down ACARS first, since you're still in Malaysian ATC radar coverage.
-- A few minutes later, once the handoff to Vietnam's ATC is attempted by Malaysian ATC, you go further dark by turning off the transponder(s).
-- You're now invisible to ATC secondary radar, the handoff was never completed, and you've bought yourself some extra time since neither Malaysia nor Vietnam can see the a/c (except for a primary target).
-- Do whatever voodoo it is you need to do.

Imo, this is a genius strategic planning!

[The Wawa Zone]

AMSA is waiting ?

According to Aust media, AMSA has received no request from Malaysia as of Sunday, to start searching the southern Indian Ocean 'arc'. Tony Abbott is offering to help (with RAAF P3's).