Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

[volcanicash]

Has anybody asked what was in the cargo holds yet?

Yes, the Wall Street Journal. Quote:
"Malaysia Airlines confirmed Saturday [15th] that Flight 370 wasn't carrying any valuable cargo."

Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 Disappeared Through 'Deliberate Action,' Prime Minister Says - WSJ.com

[GTC58]

The B777 has a super critical wing, as such it is not really designed to have aerodynamic inherent stability. Without pilot inputs it doesn't take very long for the aircraft to depart its altitude and flight path in manual flight.

[aviator1970]

cvr

CVR would record the last two or three odd hours... the initial part is overwritten... earlier they'd use a continuous tape, nowadays they use solid state devices...In the present context the CVR wouldn't have anything from the early part of the sortie...

[JRBarrett]

Originally Posted by P-air

I guess one of the first things the co-conspirators do after landing would be to wipe the CVR and DVDR, thus we may never know what happened even if the aircraft is found if it landed safely somewhere.

While some, (though not all) CVRs can have their stored audio erased on the ground by the press of a button, this is not the case with the DFDR. The only way that the Flight Data Recorder's contents could be "wiped" would be to remove it from its mounting rack and physically destroy it, or hide it where it could not be found.

However... although there is as yet no hard evidence that one (or both) pilots went "rogue" , and deliberately engineered the disappearance of the aircraft, IF that does turn out to be the case, I'd be willing to bet a month's salary that both the CVR and DFDR were disabled very early on by pulling their respective circuit breakers - meaning that even if the aircraft is eventually found, (either intact or in small pieces), that the "black boxes" will contain absolutely no data whatsoever covering the critical stages of the final flight.

That scenario would require that the CVR and DFDR CBs be in a location readily accessible to the flight crew. I have no idea if this is the case with the 777, but on all of the business jets I maintain, (Hawkers, Gulfstreams, EMB-135 etc) the CBs for both the CVR and DFDR are located on the flight deck, within easy reach of the crew.

[aviator1970]

Quote

Lets look at some facts or evidences:

Plane was at IGARI when it lost contact
Oil rig worker saw explosion or sort off
Other 8 people heard of explosion
Oil slick found in east (But Malaysia denied that its Jet fuel)
US7 was one of the first to reach the area
Statements coming from White-house (US) and PM (Malaysia)
Selective leaks from Pentagon / White House
Chinese satellite picked-up something (one sortie by Malaysia plane - and they rule that out)
SAR stopped on east side of Malaysia
Vietnam accuses Malaysia of not sharing information
Only Malaysian primary radar has picked up the plane. Hard to believe that India, Indonesia and other neighboring countries failed to detect. Indian radars are quite capable and they deny any intrusion (statements coming from low level officers, not PM or chief of military)
No debris in Bay of Bengal or Indian ocean.

All information or data coming from Malaysia or US. So far Malaysia has been very inconsistent in revealing/sharing information. Vietnam and China says and proposes something, Malaysia quick to issue a denial to that.

Deduction

Malaysia is hiding something of great magnitude
US is party and supplementing to whatever Malaysia is saying or hiding
Something big has happened that Malaysia is trying to cover-up
All data/information related to satellite etc is false and is being deliberately fed as afterthought

Possibility
MH370 never flew west
It had a failure with its transponder (at a wrong time)
Crew trying to navigate
US7 fleet present in that area, picked up the aircraft on their radar. Edgy and trigger happy action by them or someone.

Deliberate action to cover-up and misguide everyone to look at west. While the clean-up is being done on east side.

There is certainly more to whatever is being said by Malaysia and US. It can be concluded that plane never flew west.

Explosions/catastrophic failure at 39000 or even 25000 feet would leave a debris swath which would be miles long, with a large amount of it floating debris. Putting a transponder off is very easy without even accessing the CB panels. Once the transponder is off the ac is virtually a ghost aircraft.
Almost impossible to imagine India not picking up an aircraft of this size passing through its airspace.

ADS-B usually set on auto needs to be deliberately selected off with the FMC interface.

ACARS uses SATCOM as an alternate to VHF, but pinging doesn't happen randomly. To my limited knowledge it isnt like a modem pinging the server to 'keep alive'.

Giving credibility to some deliberate actions by individuals who have some vested interest.

[D.S.]

The Ancient Geek said

The tiny amount of VERIFYABLE evidence simply tells us that something went badly wrong. Apply a good dose of Occams Razor and...

which you continue to explain as

...the simplest explanation is a catastrophic depressurisation, probably due to a structural issue. Cargo door, cockpit windshield, upper skin panel ...... many more possible. Even a birdstrike is possible - it has happened before at 37500 feet but I doubt if vultures would be flying at night.

...yet the pilot did nothing
- then this catastrophic event leads to the the ACARS going out ... and the pilots did nothing
- then Transponder fails ... and the pilots do nothing
- alarms are going off everywhere ... and the pilots do nothing
- next the pilots make their normal handover contact with ATC ... and tell them nothing
- at this point they pretty much instantly flip the plane around 180, but in the middle of it apparently ... pass out?
- now quick ascent ... pilots stay passed out
- this leads to stall and fall ... pilots stay passed out
- now maybe they wake up to avert the stall? ... must pass out again though
- next after about 20-30 mins they wake up and turn 90 degrees before ...passing out
- another maybe 5-10 mins pass I believe it was Godzilla comes in and blows he plane onto another course ... pilots still passed out
- another 20 mins, wake up and turn, then ... pass out again
- at this point maybe the plane has a straight enough pass to fly completely straight to crash site without being pinged by any countries radars ... pilots never woke up again

that is approximately what you call your "Occams Razor/simplest solution" (and some people actually agree with you here, amazingly)

...meanwhile ...

this is what some of the best minds in the Governments of seeming all Countries involved, as well as most experts and many people here (include mine):

- People who knew what they were doing did what they knew how to do

Wow, you know what - after typing it out, I can so totally see how our theory is just sooooo dang complicated and illogical and all that while yours is just so unbelievably simple!

...

[benh57]

Wow, you know what - after typing it out, I can so totally see how our theory is just sooooo dang complicated and illogical and all that while yours is just so unbelievably simple!

Thank you. 'The Ancient Geek' seems to be ignoring any data that does not agree with his chosen 'simplest' theory.

[LASJayhawk]

JRBarrett: Can't swear on a 777 but on a NG737 all four flight recorder box breakers are in the cockpit (it gets power from both ac buses and both dc buses. CVR is in the cockpit as well. On the ACARS MU it has 2 breakers one on an ac buss and one on a dc buss. both on the flight deck as well.


It does seem like either the ACARS MU died at the worst possible time, or someone pulled the breakers.

[The Wawa Zone]

GTC58

Thanks, so therefore it's options for remaining in the air would be FMS commanded flight, or hand flying, and that it would be unable to rely on a third possibility of dynamic stability, to phugoid it's way along until fuel exhaustion or terrain impact at a low point of the amplitude.

Low roll stab will also indicate that the first divergences would occur in roll, and turning flight (or spiral flight) rather than more or less straight tracks would be the result. Would you agree ?

[Tscottme]

The transponder, and other electronics in the aircraft, must be equipped with on/off switches and or circuit-breakers. This is not just to satisfy certification requirements of the FAA, but in event of a short-circuit and/or fire from this device. It would be like replacing one of the circuit-breakers for your home with a fuse block and a penny jammed in the fuse block. If the item short-circuits and you don't remove power a fire is guaranteed.

There isn't going to be a technological fix that prevents a pilot from hijacking or crashing his own plane. Any proposed system will far more complicated, impossible to certify, and have so many failure modes it would take decades to test.

[Wannabe Flyer]

Is it possible for a skilled pilot to set a 777 down in calm waters like the hudson incident without breaking up the aircraft? If yes would the elt and the cvr activate if aircraft stayed in tact and sank?

Seems some one was intent on confusing searchers and has made every attempt successfully to do so. The undoing seems to be the immersat pings. If not for those the search would still be in the bay of bengal only maybe 5000 km away from real crash site.

This is a well thought out act of an individual with years if experience in aviation for a personal selfish reason with the sole intent to ensure it is kept a mystery and be declared unsolved. Hide the only parts that could tell the truth..... Wreckage and cvr. I do not subscribe to a theory of a 9/11 replay but a better thought out egyptair.

[MountainBear]

What if it's never found?

Given the new information and the resulting huge search area it strikes me that it has become much more likely that the plane and passengers are never going to be found, that we may never know why, of even what happened. What does the end game look like for this SAR effort? When will enough be enough? How long does it go on?

I ask such questions seriously. We are in unprecedented territory. Far from the search area being narrowed, which is typical, it has been dramatically expanded. From from knowing that the plane crashed...we do not even have any evidence of that. This is...to be blunt...extraordinary. It is one thing for Amelia's Earhart's little plane to go missing many decades ago and never be found. What are we going to do if this modern jetliner is never found? That's the worst case scenario now...not a hijacking...not a bomb...not a crash. The worst case scenario is that we never know.

[pilotrob23]

Since this investigation (at least publicly) is going down the sabotage or hijack route, did the captain and first officer know each other prior to 370? Interesting to see if they were good friends, or even bid to fly together (or swap) to fly this flight. Since proper planning and evidence of the crew "in on it", this seems like an interesting avenue. Again, like many others, I would like to know how much fuel was uplifted, what was on the cargo manifest, and what was found in their homes. Either way, a circus nonetheless.

[Communicator]

Malaysians Knew about Primary Radar on Day 1

D.S. pertinently reminded us that the Malaysian government must have instantly recognized the primary radar track as MH370 since the “last contact” time of 2.40 am initially disclosed by Malaysia only makes sense on this basis. This makes all the intervening kerfuffle all the more surprising, to say the least.

Despite this clear track record (pardon the pun), the Malaysian PM’s remarks are still crafted around the concept that “we [Malaysia] had no reason to suspect that the aircraft that we tracked flying across our peninsula was MH370”.

Communicator said

Quote:

[Malaysian PM, paraphrased:] The primary radar track was only connected with MH370 when the relevance of Satcom ping information was appreciated some days later.

[D.S.]That is not correct. The Malaysia Government instantly recognized it as the plane, hence "last contact was 2:40" and "evidence to suggest the plane turned around" being relayed to the media on day 1 (remember, the initial thought by absolutely everyone everywhere was the plane was lost after 2 hours, not 1)

...

[Hogger60]

JRBarrett: Can't swear on a 777 but on a NG737 all four flight recorder box breakers are in the cockpit (it gets power from both ac buses and both dc buses. CVR is in the cockpit as well. On the ACARS MU it has 2 breakers one on an ac buss and one on a dc buss. both on the flight deck as well.

The 777 unlike the 737, does not have a lot of CB's in the cockpit. Neither the CVR nor the FDR CB's are accessible on the flight deck.

[GarageYears]

I haven't seen this mentioned in the thread, but since there are perhaps 100's of posts per hour apologies in advance if this is a repeat:

Given the 8.11AM time-stamp is valid for the last 'ping', this would put the flight in the air some 7.5 hours or so... this would put it about 2 hours past expected landing time - if the passengers were still alive, I'm pretty sure that more than one or two would have become mighty suspicious at least 2 hours previously...

Unfortunately, that fact alone would suggest that (a) they were incapacitated (likely through some cockpit induced hypoxic event earlier in the flight) or (b) there were a significant number of 'accomplices throughout the cabin keeping everyone under control.

I just can't imagine in this post 9-11 world a cabin full of people sitting around good as gold no matter what they were told. If nothing else, surely the cabin crew would also get suspicious?

Thoughts?

[simon001]

Adding value to this thread

By virtue of the fact that almost 7 million people have viewed this thread, it is fair to say that this forum is recognized by a lot of people as a place where professional pilots give their input.

I expect amongst these people, are families of the victims in KL.

Can you imagine for a moment their angst reading the mass of wild theories?

Everybody wants more information. But what is known is already out there.

It is true that the absence of more facts is perplexing. But it seems to be feeding wild speculation.

Many contributors to this thread are convinced they know more than all the governments of the world who are working on this problem, which of course is just silly.

I come back to the thread once a day in the hope of finding some investigative gem from an industry expert, but in over 4,000 postings, knowledgeable posts are few and far between.

I think every possibility has been suggested. Then the follow on is criticism from someone with another theory. Not helpful.

Most of this comes from the fact that we don't have a lot to go on as to what happened, where the plane went, much less a motive or a strategy.

But in the absence of all these things just comes noise.

I imagine I am not alone as a reader who would appreciate far fewer postings in exchange for more informative input.

If you know something, post it. Otherwise in the absence of facts on the flight, speculation doesn't add any value.

[buttrick]

There would be no posts at all then!

Look at the title of the website!!
Professional Pilots RUMOUR Network

[Earl]

It seems the 777 may have some breakers in the E and E.
For some reporting ones to RR.
Transponder easy one in the center console.
ACARS once shut down would be useless also,
I listened to this for days also.
I hope then Mods dont delete this.
Seems they are suspecting the crew now.
Look at the backgrounds closely.
Captain was a pillar in his community.
F/o well maybe he did invite females to the cockpit.
Now tell me how many of us did that when young and the results?
Want me to post here?
Think we all know.
Why would a respected captain do something like this?, never.
Why would a young F/O do the same when he is having the time of his live with the girls.
We have all been there, if you say not you are a liar.
reality check here.

[slats11]

Agreed Garage.

Other clues would have been
1. Pilots not wanting cabin crew up front. No coffee. No meals. Not even a chat.
2. Sky show on IFE. This could have been turned off.
3. Failure of the sun to rise in front of them.
4. SMS on their phones as they crossed land. Been a bit of a surprise for a telco to welcome them to Malaysia or Thailand when they should have been over water.

Expect pax were out of the picture fairly early on.