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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:44
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Criminal ..... Intent? Procedure? .... or Genius?

No one is accusing the crew or others in the industry who make paper airplanes (Guilty!) of bad intent. That rejoinder misses the point.

I would have loved to spin out one or more scenarios. It could be fun. But only in some other context not one with such somber unknowns. To borrow a true aviation phrase, the trailing wake vortex of this incident is going to be dramatic and it is going to be significant and highly impactful - and that's based JUST on what we do know at this time. Some of which may need to be "revised and extended" as more, and/or more accurate, information sees the light of day.

If you are someone who reads threads on this board somewhat (or quite) routinely....have you not noticed the absence of posts to the effect of, 'yes, this might have happened or that could have occurred, but let's get the CVR and that will tell the tale and/or let's have NTSB do its work and then when report is out we'll know." Quite-stupidly-and-obviously: where is the [censored] aircraft?

My sense is that there isn't even remotely the same kind of 'playbook' for this particular fact pattern. Moreover, let us not, repeat negative, NOT, assume ANY lack of evil creativity. Pause and reflect - some or all of the horror of September the Eleventh was the quite-totally incomprehensibly "Surprise!" of it all.

So rule nothing out. Of course this applies to "things" of and in the real world. I do know that Whatever-They're-Called from a Transformers movie did not eat the aircraft for lunch. I do not know where it is, how it got there, by whom, or why.

But I'm shredding my ticket to practice Law - and it is not an e-ticket - the day I become too lazy, ethically and thinking-wise, to apply the very (legally) elementary principle of evidential relevance. Or as a famous law professor used to say, "What you don't know can hurt you, and then you'll have to eat your lunch all by yourself."
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:47
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Jet fuel is a very different cut from ship diesel fuel.
Ship diesel is a much lower volatile fraction, needing preheaters etc to burn in enormous 2 stroke diesels the size of a house. At jet altitude temperatures, ship diesel fuel is solid, not liquid.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:50
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xcitation,

Undoubtedly, number 3. If they took action, meaning intercepted and shot the plane down, there'd be plenty of evidence and no evidence of hours of flight. I'm also, baed on years of military experience, somewhat cynical about military capability everyone assumes exists.

GF
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:50
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The Inmarsat constellation has been upgraded over the last 12 months...
On this subject:

By now pretty much every spook in the Sahara knows not to use Inmarsat or Thuraya satphones for communications, as very soon after the first ringtone they will receive an air delivered parcel courtesy Uncle Sam from one of those Predators circling somewhere overhead... The In Amenas attack was planned and executed using old cellphones and local scratchcards for this reason.

So yes, signal location may be traced to within a few metre accuracy.

If this technology will actually help find the missing aircraft, it will be one of the rare proven benefits gained from the hundreds of billions spent post 9/11 on clandestine surveillance.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:51
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Originally Posted by bille1319
I doubt if all the pax were duped. I usually carry a hand held satnav which works fine by a window seat. Surely there must have been a few awake by the window seats could see that the a/c had changed course dramatically and it being a half moon that night would cast changing shadows on the wing. Therefore it would seem to me that intervention by the pax is highly likely at the later end.
Maybe. Surely most were taking a nap, as it was the midnight to dawn flight from KL to Beijing. You'd want to be rested if you had a meeting the next day, eh?
edit: thanks to threemiles for recalibrating me on the above.
Edit: For
Originally Posted by GF
I'm also, based on years of military experience, somewhat cynical about military capability everyone assumes exists.
That's at least two of us. Having an air defense system does not provide omniscience. Sad but true, given the expense of such things.

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Mar 2014 at 18:13.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:52
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xcitation

There appears to be a high probability of a 4+ hours flight in a "9-11" transponders off situation. In the US/Euro they have scrambled the interceptors for far less than this incident. How do we reconcile a hijack style flight with zero response from the military?

1. it was detected, ignored, no action taken and the military kept quiet.
2. it was detected, action was taken and military kept quiet.
3. it was not detected. The military genuinely had no awareness, military telling the truth. Therefore the region has no effective air defense monitoring.
#1 is pretty clearly what Malaysia did, at least in real time. Remember the plane stayed within normal air transport corridors.
So the question is, would other countries respond similarly.

Since then it's clear the US has known since last Sat. and has been very quiet. Very artful language coming out of Malaysia as well ("can't confirm definitively...")

Why isn't the press asking other obvious countries what they did pick up?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:55
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S. of Japan E of Philippines

Email from a friend with more than 40 yrs of airline stick time in Boeings + Airbuses + other birds as well. Also accident investigator. My translation from another language:
"Hypoxia is not to be neglected....Seems now confirmed that ACARS pinged for more than 4 hrs... one could reasonably imagine that the plane flew until fuel starvation... believe search area should be S. of Japan, East of Philippines. (FYI: if XDR code change is halted in mid-operationm, the transponder blocks and is inop.)
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 17:56
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"Whereof one cannot speak, thereof one must be silent."

Wittgenstein: Tractus Logico-Philosphicus: Proposition 7.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:00
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Rog @14th Mar 2014, 11:43:

You may persist with the idea that this is SAR only, but that is a semantic distinction only. I'll guarantee that Malaysian authorities believe and are behaving as if this is an investigation.

If the pilot's home simulator hasn't been looked-at, it's only because the authorities don't at the moment believe it to be relevant. (And at the moment I don't believe it to be relevant.)

Last edited by BobT; 14th Mar 2014 at 18:12.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:00
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'Tracking Planes' BBC Inside Science

On Thursday 13th March, the first interview in BBC's 'Inside Science' programme on Radio 4 was with Dr Matt Greaves, a Lecturer in Accident Investigation at Cranfield University, UK. The subject was "Tracking Planes" and provides a good overall assessment of what is and is not currently available. It's only 5 minutes long and is available as a podcast too.
BBC Radio 4 - Inside Science, Tracking planes; Peer review; Mega-virus; Astronaut
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:06
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Perhaps this has been discussed prior; if so my apologies. But I'm still hearing that the Malaysians are saying they'll enter the Captain's home "if necessary".

As a retired Captain I'm not casting aspersion, but with so little known here and so many lives involved, I would think that the appropriate authorities would have searched his home long ago - to include the computer(s) used to run his home simulator.

When you're totally responsible for hundreds of lives you give up a certain amount of privacy in a case such as this. It just goes with the job.

Despite cultural politeness, respect, and abhorrence for loss of face, the circumstances demand that everything possible needs to be examined ASAP.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:10
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it is quite sad that a popular senior pilot with a passion and love of his job is being character assassinated on here - not cricket guys sorry
he's one of you

i can see why the witch hunt though as sadly there have been a number of pilot induced crashes with modern jets and turbo props in recent years

i do not think the MAS crew are implicated with what we (don't) know so far

all we do know is that it is a ruddy nightmare
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:11
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Lonewolf,

I posted it a few pages earlier but probably got lost in the backscatter:

Local Moonset in KL was 00:40am, coinciding with takeoff time. As the aircraft was initially eastbound, it is safe to say the entire flight was conducted in darkness, only stars could have provided some directional info to the initiated.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:14
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My opinion is that the Captain is very much a 'professional'. However..
So was the Captain of the AF crashing a good ship in the ocean near Brasil.
So was the Captain crashing in Buffalo a perfectly good A/C.
So was the Captain crashing a perfectly good A/C in AMS (except a little fault with a RA)
So was the Asiana captain crashing a T7 in SFO....

etc etc

Last edited by testpanel; 14th Mar 2014 at 18:16. Reason: forgot to paste....
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:15
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Of course the homes of both pilots should be searched for any clues. At the moment there isn't anything to go on. Why hasn't it been done already?

It is not to cast aspersions on the flight crew, but solely to eliminate them from blame.

Who knows, the home flight simulator of the Captain may show he practised flying a route to the Andaman Islands or some other manoeuvre?
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:20
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Originally Posted by Count Niemantznarr
Of course the homes of both pilots should be searched for any clues. At the moment there isn't anything to go on. Why hasn't it been done already?
How do you know it has not been?
The Malaysians are not obliged to tell the world every little thing they are doing.
Edit:
Sorry, I missed seeing this bit.
Police would search the pilot's home if necessary

Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 14th Mar 2014 at 20:47.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:22
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searching crew homes - good grief

as i said before there is NO single country handling an aircraft accident investigation nor is flight MH370 a criminal investigation

you all harp on about this should be done that should be down - his home should be searched -
but you cannot legally do that until such measures are in force....
imagine in the UK if those actions were taken by the CAA or an airline?
the AAIB would not even be on the case yet...

you are all getting hysterical

even in Malaysia a protocol will be followed in due course - wait and see
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:34
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I've used Inmarsat in the marine environment.

The antenna needs to be kept "pointing" at the satellite during use.

to do this, the Inmarsat antenna contains a GPS receiver/antenna - if it knows where it is, and it knows where the satellite is, it can keep the antenna pointed at the satellite.

On a boat, the antenna is also stabilized, to account for the roll and yaw of the boat, but maybe this isn't needed on an aircraft.
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:43
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You may persist with the idea that this is SAR only, but that is a semantic distinction only
Not at all. The three would be led by very differing government bodies (with potentially differing levels of competence, and perhaps hidden agendas)

SAR is usually under the command and responsibility of the organization owning the principal SAR assets used (in this case primarily Malaysian armed forces).

Air accident investigation is conducted by the responsible (and supposedly independent) transportation accident investigation body, and a part of this investigation is to assess the quality of SAR activities. It is launched immediately after an accident becomes known (and may in fact run parallel to SAR).

A criminal investigation is run by the judicial system, triggered by the 'discovery' of a criminal act.

Not quite semantics here...

Potentially the biggest dilemma if the aircraft is not found is whether this should be treated as an accident investigation or criminal investigation. Depending on the path chosen, some evidence may be easier to gather, but some more difficult. (Eg. in a criminal investigation any request for evidence from another country must pass through judicial and diplomatic channels, while in an air accident investigation various foreign investigation bodies may be invited to form a part of the investigation team).
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Old 14th Mar 2014, 18:45
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Hi,

as i said before there is NO single country handling an aircraft accident investigation nor is flight MH370 a criminal investigation
If France is take as reference country .. check the AF447 case
As soon the disparition was know .. a criminal investigation was launched
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