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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 08:58
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Folks,
Based on answers to a "Question without Notice" in the Australian Commonwealth Parliament some time in 2013 ( as I recall) Jindalee does not work H24, so it would be very lucky if its restricted operations hours coincided with this occurrence.
Jindalee would certainly have been able to track the target well into the Indian Ocean, and well towards the surface, if it was in range.
Tootle pip!!
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:03
  #4382 (permalink)  
 
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The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace. An unidentified aircraft would have been detected and intercepted very quickly, as someone trying to sneak through in a Cessna Caravan a few years ago discovered.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:13
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Misc. Thoughts

1. Malaysian politics is turbulent and corrupt, but generally not violent.

2. The trustworthiness of Malaysia's current government is not beyond doubt in light of what has emerged in connection with MH370. (See, for example, this interesting discovery by D.S.)

Given that the captain was reported to be a vocal supporter of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, "official" statements concerning the (now absent) captain should be treated with great caution and checked closely for factual backup.

Anwar Ibrahim would decidedly not wish to be associated with any criminal actions by a prominent supporter.

3. There have been many comments about the high level of flying skills exhibited by the hijackers after MH370 lost contact with ATC.

However, going through the best scenarios available at present, hard flying skills involved are minimal. The aircraft went through a few turns and changes of altitude. Indeed, some comments here appear to indicate that the only "flying" that occurred may have been achieved through step-by-step programming of the FMS.

Where the hijackers have exhibited great sophistication is in their ability to evade ATC and various radar systems based on a shrewd understanding of the practical limitations of those systems, likely acquired through extensive observation. However, such knowledge and expertise is by no means confined to professional pilots.

P.S.: There may be only a single hijacker.

Last edited by Communicator; 16th Mar 2014 at 09:31.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:18
  #4384 (permalink)  
 
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SIN

RE: The route taken by the B777 could have been carefully planned to avoid Singapore airspace.
Agreed, the SAF will scramble very quickly and are happy to show their strength. But the same goes for India, China and a few others. Also bear in mind Singapore and it's airspace is relatively small.
However I am hopeful the investigators are close to coming to a conclusion. I will hope for the best but fear a long salvage operation.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:22
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Since the pilots have now reluctantly been included as hijacking suspects, forensic computer investigators who are extracting data from the captain's flight simulator hard drive may find clues as to MH370's bizarre routing.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:26
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The New Straits Times is reporting that the Malaysians have flown a 777 on a course to re-enact the likely scenario of MH370 turning west across the Malay peninsula and to see if the same primary radar and satellite data could be reproduced. They are satisfied this is the case.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:33
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Originally Posted by barti01
any press conf today or they do not work on Sundays?
Next press conference seems to be scheduled to 17:30 MYT (9:30 GMT)

Twitter Source:

@ReutersAero
"Next press conference 1730 local #MH370"
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:34
  #4388 (permalink)  
 
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The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.
In addition to security issues, the "cagyness" of the ADF about the range of the Jindalee system is due to the fact that the range varies depending on the atmospheric conditions which dictate the frequencies being used. Throughout the day/night, many different frequencies are used just like in normal HF communications - generally higher freqs in the middle of the day and low freqs in the middle of the night.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:44
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Tscottme

The transponder, and other electronics in the aircraft, must be equipped with on/off switches and or circuit-breakers. This is not just to satisfy certification requirements of the FAA, but in event of a short-circuit and/or fire from this device. It would be like replacing one of the circuit-breakers for your home with a fuse block and a penny jammed in the fuse block. If the item short-circuits and you don't remove power a fire is guaranteed.
There isn't going to be a technological fix that prevents a pilot from hijacking or crashing his own plane. Any proposed system will far more complicated, impossible to certify, and have so many failure modes it would take decades to test.
I'm sure this question will be addressed in the eventual accident report, so a few words from an engineer.

Let's recall that the B777 and its systems design was done in the early 1990s. Electronics and communications systems design has made immense progress since then.

While the above hijack or crash prevention system may be a difficult task, a far easier goal would be to improve the communication and reporting capabilities, as well as the "tamper-proofness" of the airplane so that it would be almost impossible to go invisible the way MH370 did.

For example, it is not that difficult to design a smart circuit breaker which before actually cutting the power instructs a communication device (e.g. ACARS) to send out an alert , for example "I was manually pulled" or "I need to break now due to overcurrent" or even "I'm sensing high overtemp".

Likewise, an "Equipment bay hatch being opened" alert would be a piece-of-cake to implement.

With some careful systems design, the act of "going invisible" would then not be possible without at least an alert message with some details getting out to the outside world. In the MH370 case, it might have been the difference between scrambling primary radar or military interceptors, and the agony the world has experienced last week. Perhaps even the knowledge that "you can't go hiding without announcing it" will discourage anyone from trying.

PS: It is a bit startling to realize that MH370, as it now seems, was just one circuit breaker pull away (Satcom) from full success in its go-hiding maneuver. As this reached the public domain yesterday, it becomes evident that something needs to be done to prevent further attempts.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:44
  #4390 (permalink)  
 
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Why is the Captain the only pilot under suspicion? Why has the F/Os home, hard drive etc not been searched?
They have : see 2-b in the last Malaysian government PR

Last edited by the incivil beast; 16th Mar 2014 at 09:47. Reason: correct link
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:47
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Kiwiconhead:
Staging out of Cocos Islands should give them good endurance?

http://goo.gl/maps/4cDSX
Um this is a territory of Australia. Populated with Australians.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:48
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Originally Posted by Going Boeing
The gist of Communicator's earlier #4062 is that JORN in Australia publicly admits to 1,000 - 3,000 km for their OTHR system, implying that actual range may be rather wider.
In addition to security issues, the "cagyness" of the ADF about the range of the Jindalee system is due to the fact that the range varies depending on the atmospheric conditions which dictate the frequencies being used. Throughout the day/night, many different frequencies are used just like in normal HF communications - generally higher freqs in the middle of the day and low freqs in the middle of the night.
Add to that the understanding that JORN is not manned 24/7. Whether or not the traces are available 'outside operating hours' is the classified bit
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:48
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Why has the F/Os home, hard drive etc not been searched? Why is he not stated to be under suspicion?
I believe it has been. From CBC: 'Police on Saturday went to the Kuala Lumpur homes of both the pilot and co-pilot of the missing plane, according to a guard and several local reporters. Authorities have said they will investigate the pilots as part of their probe, but have released no information about how they are progressing.'
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:54
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Originally Posted by Passagiata
Kiwiconhead:
Um this is a territory of Australia. Populated with Australians.
Just the thing for Australian P3's performing a SAR in the southern arc
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:55
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@D.S.

So that means
A) Vietnam has the plane on radar turning around, and tried to tell Malaysia that day
B) Malaysia knew they had it on their radar at 2:40 in the Straights anyway

From what I remember reading, Vietnam ATC informed Malaysian ATC about the missing a/c at 02.40L (Malaysian time). This is pretty much exactly the time when the mystery a/c disappeared from the military radar to the west of Malaysia. I imagine the news sent the Malaysians scurrying to replay their recordings of what radar operators had failed to see? So there were two instances of '02.40', which may have confused a few people.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:55
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Limitations of JORN

A further limitation of JORN, according to ADF publications, it doesn't scan like a conventional radar, but rather it is tasked to scan a particular 'tile' and either airborne or surface targets. I don't know how quickly it can be retasked, but it seems very unlikely that it would have accidentally painted MH370. If it deliberately painted that part of the sky then that's a whole other story.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 09:58
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MAS Fined in New Zealand

This was probably mentioned here earlier, but MAS was actually fined by usually mild New Zealand.

According to the report below, MAS deliberately violated an order not to allow a named passenger to leave the country. The passenger's passport details were falsified to circumvent automatic checks.

Malaysia Airlines has previous conviction for 'falsifying passport details to allow passenger on board' | South China Morning Post
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:00
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I'm thinking about the final non standard radio transmission. As this happened after the ACARS was turned off I presume that someone has done an analysis of the transmission to see if it is either of the pilots voices. The opinion of some of the comments on this site is that it is an Americanism, is it a normal term of speech for Malay pilots?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:01
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Snowfalcon,

But every crew is only ever 90 seconds from voluntarily spearing into the ground/sea, as Egyptair showed.

Circuit breaker design isn't going to stop a deranged crew, or fraction thereof, of going postal.

Legacy aircraft can't have their power systems and the location of their avionics bays redesigned as a result of a one-off freak event. If you want a permanent locator, then fit an independent transponder.

I wonder if any knee-jerking legislators might consider having arbitrary numbers of security persons with much less education, training and judgement than the crew themselves installed in the jump seats to watch the crew and each other?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:03
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Originally Posted by GlueBall
Since the pilots have now reluctantly been included as hijacking suspects, forensic computer investigators who are extracting data from the captain's flight simulator hard drive may find clues as to MH370's bizarre routing.
My thoughts exactly. What airfields has he practised landing at?

Question:

How long is passenger oxygen supposed to last? Obviously with fewer passengers it would last longer. With high anxiety it would last less.

How long will cockpit oxygen last supposing it is a different supply?

PS:

Remember the film Thunderball. Has the pilot got that at home too?
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