Artie Fufkin

If you read the threads regarding Ryanair, you hear an awful lot of modular trained pilots moaning that Ryanair seem to have a huge preference for (a) the under thirties and (b) Oxford cadets.

Still also waiting to hear about these TP operators with requirements of up to 50 cadet pilots per year.

mad_jock

Loganair, Eastern. Which I suspect will happen again this year as a fair few experienced crew are off to biz jets and Jet2. There are other operators who are take 3-4 a year as well some in the UK but most else where.

I would agree that Ryanair won't touch anyone under 30 and the majority of those going will be OAA. I am not surprised really that the modular that do apply there might be the cream of the bunch as it seems to be a last ditch effort to get a job. Also as well the modular guys are a bit more finically savy and aren't comfortable with the deal. I have heard they have started handing out tax bills to the pilots based in the UK. 21k has been the largest I have heard of so far for a FO. Unfortunately they seem to be the target for many a tax authority.

no they are not but they need there money from them for the system to continue as there isn't enough of the cadets to fund the system.

I am 100% behind people who can get on cadet schemes to go for it. The in for a punt putting on the family's assets as the bet is what I am advising against. Let the airlines pay for there own training system if that's what they want.

Artie Fufkin

Biz jets have the same difficult to breach glass ceiling as TP, so not a way into airlines (if that's what you want).

Jet2 will ask for payment for the type rating. And probably employ you as a contractor, possibly pay you 70% salary, possibly even base you in Spain. Sound much better deal that a cadet deal at Easy / Ryanair?

No one from Eastern or Loganair went to Jet2 in the last 12 months, and I can't think of any other UK airlines who took TP pilots last year. So who were these shadowy "other operators" taking 3 or 4 a year?

So the 50 throughput in the last 12 months that you claim to have observed went to biz jets?

BS!

mad_jock

No I was talking about first multicrew type rating.

Not moving onto jet. Although some must be to release the position.

As you quite rightly say the whole thing is now stitched up for cadets.

So if your not on a cadet scheme your pretty well in with the modular pilots going for all these crappy TP jobs with the And having the overhead of the full loan instead of the reduced modular debt.

There has been quite a few going to the ME as well from heavy TP's.

So the point I am making is that if your not on a cadet scheme go modular because your going to end up fighting for jobs with them. But with twice the debt to pay off.

Artie Fufkin

I do largely agree that options are limited, either way you train, certainly no arguments there. But, if you use totally made up, inaccurate arguments such as...
... you should expect someone to call BS on you. I have personally seen first hand people making poor choices based on exactly this sort of disinformation.

If 50 new multi crew type ratings occurred at Eastern/ Loganair each year, that would require throughput or expansion. One extra Saab in Aberdeen does not equal the numbers you talk of.

mad_jock

Its not BS. Between me and my mates who are all line trainers that's about the number we have put through this year. I can count on one hand the number of weeks I haven't been line training.

Not all of them are UK pilots and I am not based in the UK so had discounted my new ones apart from the Brits.

Eastern have been loosing crew all year alot of very experienced pilots including TRE's and the FOD have moved on. Its monthly that 2-3 of them post on FB that the escape tunnel has been completed and I suspect there is more that I don't see. And Loganair are starting to use the S2000's so that will be a load gone from that fleet.

There will be just as many poor choices made by people listening to the go integrated mantra.

There is another issue which is very prevalent and maybe you don't see as much as we do.

That alot of the fallout from both sets of training should never have started training in the first place due to being completely unsuited to being a professional pilot. These types the go modular recommendation is more of a damage limitation exercise than anything else.

Bealzebub

Yes you're right, we don't see it. Why? Because the methodology of this type of cadet course screens out most of that type of applicant at the selection stage. The few remaining would be eliminated during the course (hopefully at an early stage.) The nature of these integrated training courses means that a candidates progress and their entire training history can be both monitored and mentored. There are certainly failures, but they are relatively few. Some schools operate a partial guarantee policy whereby somebody who is failing to make satisfactory progress can recover a significant proportion of their fees. The partner airlines are looking for the best candidates, not those who "drop out of the bottom" with whom you appear to be more familiar.

looking back 15-20 years when direct recruitment was almost completely ex-military and self improvers (at the 2000-3000 hour entry level,) the later group had a much higher attrition (failure) rate during training than seen today with ab-initio cadets. These programmes take what are very obviously very inexperienced pilots and put them on an extremely steep learning curve. Having seen the results of that for the last 15-20 years, it has produced some very fine captains, training captains, and management pilots. This isn't an experiment, it is an established route.
They already do in most cases. We certainly do. However, the cadets pay for the training that puts them in a position to be cadets. If they are successful there are schemes agreed with HMRC that enable their training bonds to be repaid to them as a salary sacrifice. This (albeit after the fact) enables the majority part of their training costs to be paid mostly free of income tax. These schemes last for up to 7 years. Different airlines have their own arrangements, but we (and we always have) pay for the cadets type rating and all of their advanced training. If they fail to complete that training (which would be very rare) or we couldn't offer them employment at the end of their placement period, we would eat those training costs. Likewise we pay for uniforms, car parking, training living costs, hotels, flight and duty pay, medicals, insurances, etc. Once an employment contract is offered the cadet moves on to a "cadet salary" for the first two years or (more likely) until they have 1000 hours. At this point they join the normal salary ladder at whatever would have been the normal point based on their length of service. (year 1 or 2.) The point being, that we do pay for our own training system. That is quite distinct from paying for the cadets pre-placement ab-initio training. That is their responsibility.

Our cadets (post probation) are earning a basic salary of £1000 per week. Plus flight pay, duty pay and all the normal allowances and enhancements. Of those that took out loans to fund their training (of up to 10 years) most are (quite sensibly) repaying them over a 5-7 year period.

Now before you exude your usual chant about how these are the lucky few for whom so many have to throw themselves on the bonfire to keep the schools in business, let me say that yes they are the lucky few. However other airlines (with their own terms & conditions) also take their own "lucky few". In fact most of the graduates of the schools we utilize, do find airline placements within 0-18 months of graduation. Applicants to those schools who are not selected for the fast track courses, may be offered a similar course whereby their actual performance during the course overrides the initial selection criteria, and they can qualify for airline placements on conclusion. The risk is greater (as you might expect) but the opportunity is there.

I am afraid that it is simply a fact of life that most businesses rely on turnover, volume, and profit, in order to stay in business. If you go and speak to somebody in your head office, you will almost certainly find that this applies to your company as well. Take any flying school, anywhere in the world, and you will find that those who succeed are in some part being funded by those who don't. That success is largely dependent on the luck, ability and resource of the candidate.

Artie Fufkin

Whilst we're at it

Let's look at who is expected to hire 200 hour pilots this winter. I believe Easy, Monarch and Thomson are taking non tagged integrated from CTC. Ryanair is closed to new applications but will recruit from its pool of CVs, who we've already agreed prefer Oxford. Jet2 have already selected a handful of cadets with no preference for modular or integrated. BA might take FPP or defer them.

Not sure of anyone else recruiting, other than your highly questionable 50 at Loganair/ Eastern.

So, if you were looking for work, would you be more hopeful if you had gone modular or integrated?

mad_jock

Again we come back to the wings course and we have already stated that there is no problems with that and yes you will have access to your big Jet. Or maybe you will get sent off to a heavy TP company depending who does the deal.

So yes if your going to go that route go for the wings course. If your not on that course your in the same boat as everyone else how ever you train.

And if Ryanair have stopped taking CV's that is going to start a very interesting time for the schools. Its going to mean 50-70% of the graduates next year are going to be unemployed with another batch in the system hot on there tails.

That about sums it up. The chances are your going to be doing the funding unless you are on the wings course at CTC unless on a tagged scheme.

Is your parents house really worth that risk?

Without your money the cadetships and training method wouldn't be available. So support your local large airline training their pilots. The only way you will get a seat on the airline is by buying one in the back.

Bealzebub

Not really! I think I already mentioned that:
I am seeing new pilots in the right hand seat of A320's from CTC (IPP,) FTE and Oxford.

One less airline offering recruitment opportunities cannot be regarded as positive, that is for sure. However given that this seems to be the best hope for a jet apprenticeship for the "modular market" it would seem even more disastrous to that market.

You would be "doing the funding" in any event. Once again I already mentioned that: Only the parents would be deciding that. They have a long track record of making difficult financial decisions and are (in my experience) acutely aware that their offspring's aspirations may not mesh with their financial reality. It is also worth bearing in mind that the principal financing through this route requires a 40% equity in any "house" even after the first/second mortgage has been approved. It also requires the guarantors (parents) to satisfy affordability criteria in the event their offspring's aspirations do not result in success or a timely fulfilment. In other words the lenders strict criteria is likely to be exceeded by the parents own sense of financial acumen and survival. The applicant is not the one taking the risk on the parents house. They can't! It is the parents that would be doing that.

The training method is here to stay for the long foreseeable future I am afraid. If airlines continue to recruit cadets (and they have done so for over 50 years now,) they will source them from those sources that satisfy their requirements. Individual schools, airlines, and other companies will come and go. The demand and supply curves will fluctuate as they always do, but hand wringing and hoping it will all go away will do nothing. However if it helps.....

mad_jock

It will stay..

But with what capacity we shall wait and see.

Ryanair was never really seen in my experience as an option for most modular pilots. The economics of it never really sat well. Pay for your type rating don't get paid for a long period of time and all the things you have to pay for. So although people say they preferred certain type realistically the failure rate was more than likely similar when you look at the numbers.

The market that its really going hit is the integrated as that is the bulk of the none tagged jobs. They take nearly 40% of two of the schools outputs.

And

The funding I was referring to was funding the airline tagged schemes by keeping the numbers up in periods of drought so that there is still capacity in the system.

Like it or not they have scored a major own goal by running the tagged cadetship schemes for the bulk of the jobs they can get their hands on. If they had left the selection to after completion there would be a reason to go for the courses with the chance there after for the dream job what ever the T&C's were. Now unless your extremely lucky and after Ryanair stops that will mean under 10% of those going through, your in the same boat as everyone else.

There are enough cadetship jobs for 1 medium sized school putting out about 150-200 a year. Not the current capacity of 400-500 a year.

And we shall see what the parents think.....

And if everything was hunky dory with the numbers going through I would suspect that we wouldn't hear anything on here when its said that modular is the way to go for minimising the risk.

But I suspect all of them are hurting and it can only get worse. Fleets are needing replaced and are getting more expensive by the year. Fuel is gong through the roof. EASA is being very difficult with overseas approvals for training. There really isn't enough training aircraft available in Europe to be able to bring the SEP training back or for that matter instructors with the relevant qualifications and experience requirements.

Europe has reached its stagnation point in regards to expansion and some would say that it has over reached its market size. So it will just be retirements and medical which will being replaced. So I expect Ezy to be going the same way as Ryanair in the not so distant future.

So people get to read two different opinions on the subject and we shall see what happens. But none of the effects or policy's are going to be able to be affected by pilots. It will all be accountants and what ever is the cheapest and most profitable for the company's. The current system is a go because it is good for the accountants. As soon as its cheaper to do something else that's what they will do.

Bealzebub

For the most part they do leave the selection until the completion of the course. Of the group I monitored a year or so back, each and every one of them applied for a placement upon completion of their courses. That was and continues to be the case. The main exception is with the MPL course, because that course by its structure requires more direct involvement with the airline concerned. The vast majority of "wings" cadets have no idea where they will be placed during their course. There are a few airline specific "wings" courses where obviously pre-selection by the airline was a requisite. However even with these courses, there is no guarantee of placement or employment at the conclusion if it doesn't fit in with the partner airlines then current requirements. Similarly, those numbers can (and sometimes are) supplemented by cadets who were not pre-selected. In any event, the majority of such cadets are still not pre-selected, and usually have no idea what placements may be available to them at, or subsequent to their training course completion.

mad_jock

That's only for CTC which has already been said is different.

Still doesn't solve the problem that the supply of places on these courses is 2-3 times more than the market requires.

And if there isn't a significant number of people going through these courses and washing out into the market with everyone else for the none shiny jet jobs the current capacity can't be maintained. And if the capacity goes it takes years to gear up to get it back.

And if they only took what was required the cost of the courses would nearly double.

Once Ezy stop expanding which they pretty much have with all routes that can support a med Jet being supplied already by the loco's. They also have a relatively young Captains base. So then it will be dead mans shoes for job openings or reduction of flying hours as per Ryanair have been doing to be earning a pittance with the loans to fund.

Yes I can understand you want to keep the capacity up. Once gone its gone and things get very expensive very quickly. But there just isn't the demand in the market to keep the current capacity in the supply.

The gamble of the family's assets is not viable in my opinion.

So yes if they make the grade for the wings course go for it. But if they are offered anything else and the failure to progress to the shiny jet job would hamper/ cause financial grief for the family. The odds are its going to happen. If financially its just money on paper disappearing from the kids inheritance, again pay for what you like and I wish you every success.

Bealzebub

Well, that is your opinion, but it is a rather tortured logic.
Not really. They currently have a good market share, but they are no more or less immune to the market forces of supply and demand than is anybody else.

Again supply and demand. In the cadet pilot "market" these schools are the principal suppliers. They are the principal suppliers for all of the reasons I have already stated. The jobs or placements for graduating "cadets" is also a function of supply and demand in the airline market. The volatility of the latter and the roughly two year lead time for supply is invariably going to result in frequent instability. That is unfortunate, but it is a fact of commercial life. If for some reason the supply of well trained cadets were to dry up to tomorrow, then the airlines concerned wouldn't be throwing up their hands in horror. They would simply satisfy their recruitment requirements from the established experienced labour markets. Most already do this. We take roughly equal third measures of cadets, experienced type rate pilots and experienced non-type rated (including ex-military) pilots. If one supply source becomes difficult it is relatively simple to switch to another.
They don't know what is required. They can make an educated guess, but they cannot possibly know. It is basic tenet of economics, that prices usually rise when demand outstrips supply, and fall when supply outstrips demand.
Who knows? The expansion of the Lo-co's has been providing much of the "demand" in the jobs market throughout the post 2008 global recession. However it isn't the only demand. As those large companies consolidate, so other more established companies who have been taking a lean & mean approach to their own cost bases in recent years, may well increase their own recruitment.

It is of no interest to me what "capacity" is kept up. Within the presumed context, that is a matter for the training schools. That is a function of their business plan and how they see their own place within that particular market. Their capacity has no particular bearing on a partner airlines cost base. Training cadets (within an airline) is expensive. It is very expensive on scarce training resources, and any direct savings are usually limited to around 18 months. At that point (certainly as far as we are concerned) the cadet simply becomes a pilot employee on an identical cost structure as with any other pilot at their salary point. The fact that there is cadet scheme in place, provides fast track opportunities to a number of low hour pilots each year. We also offer engineering apprenticeships and administrative employment to school leavers.

Wanabees coming to these forums (however realistic or serious they may or may not be,) are frequently looking for the fast track routes into major airlines. Those routes are few, fiercely competitive, and extremely difficult on so many levels. Nevertheless, they do exist and there are often specific criteria that need to be met, to even be in with a chance for one of them. I would be astonished if even 1% of anybody who expresses an opinion here or reads these threads were to embark on this route. Of those that do embark upon substantive training towards the goal of a CPL, I would be just as surprised if more than 5% embarked (by choice or selection) to an airline orientated integrated CPL/IR course with one of the major players in this market. However, some will, and it is from this group that the fast track opportunities (however few or many there are at any given point in time,) are likely to be found.
Yes, then don't do it. However for many people it will not be an insurmountable problem. It will nearly always be a risk. Raising large sums of finance for many things can be just as much of a risk or a speculative venture.
Indeed if you are going to argue that it is unwise to risk £90K at the roulette wheel playing red or black, then it is even more unwise to risk £50K on the numbers when the odds of winning are exponentially even more unlikely and the potential reward sums exactly the same (although particularly in the case of the latter there may be a £30K charge to collect!)
I think I would broadly agree with this. However there are opportunities within some of these schools to assume a greater element of risk and follow the same course. In other words prove their initial assessment wrong, or prove yourself during the course. For those that are successful (and many are) the placement and subsequent job opportunities may well be offered upon or after completion. If you are borrowing sums of money that would ruin you, then yes don't do it. Don't do it for a "wings" course. Don't do it to play the stock market. Don't do it for any non essential reason.
On the other hand, if after a great deal of your own research, deliberation, risk awareness, and honesty, you decide that it is a viable option and you are committed to it, then make sure you understand exactly what it is that you want, and the realistic costs and practicalities of just how you might get there.

mad_jock

Its only tortured logic because you want it to be and it goes against your opinion.

Yep the demand for the product is reducing and I am advising the supply to see through the marketing.

Yes you will take the one the business manager tells you to. This could happen on Friday this week or whenever.

That only works up to a certain point with a clean market which doesn't require skill sets and capital items. Once you need to retain skill sets and require capital items your fixed costs are the price controller so when supply drops you have less units to spread your fixed costs over so the price has to rise otherwise you close the doors. Basic Engineering economics as taught to all 1st year degree Engineers.

If you can get the money together.
IF you don't fall out of favour by the school.
IF you do well in your exams.
IF you have above average ability.
IF the market has some requirement
IF the operator is one you would actually work for.

You may get to get some benefit from the additional cost of the integrated course.

IF you drop an exam
IF an instructor takes a dislike to you
IF you have a bad day on a flight test
IF the market doesn't need you
If they want to send you to Lion Air or similar.

You will have paid all that extra cash for nothing. Well actually less than nothing because a lot of us won't touch integrated with a stick in the scrappy end of the market which doesn't fly anything shiny.

But hey its got wings and a couple of engines and they pay us to fly them not as much as the shiny jets but we have a good quality of life which is helped a lot by not having huge loans hanging over us.

So for the majority

Bealzebub

I am afraid that despite some evidence of the gentle clicking of back peddling that I was detecting in some of your recent posts, it hasn't quite reversed through your basic dogma.

I am not sure (other than by way of lazy retort) where you think my logic is tortured. From this tall tree on the other side of the raging river there is a very good view. Pointing out how to cross the bridge is fairly straightforward. If people cant afford the toll, or decide to risk their way across that raging river, that is a matter for them. Of course I fully appreciate and understand that for many people there simply isn't a choice. Those stepping stones are small, infrequent and very slippery. They are also very crowded. If they are lucky they will meet you on one of those stepping stones, because (and pointing out the obvious) you haven't journeyed to the green and pleasant fields on the other side of the riverbank either.

Well I am not sure who the "lot of us" are, but it is wonderful that you are so altruistic. It is excellent news for those aspiring wannabes that rely on traversing their passage via this route. For the lucky few who can gain a foothold on these stepping stones, they might look forward to (and excuse the fact that PPJN is my particular window on the world to this information,) circa £21K a year basic, eventually rising to the giddy heights of circa £35K, and as a top tier Captain maybe £48K! For the lucky few who succeed as a cadet entry pilot those figure are circa £40K at entry, rising to £81K, and eventually £121K as a top tier Captain. All of these figures exclude duty pay, flying pay, and additional emoluments, which are also likely to be three times higher.

I am genuinely pleased that you "won't touch integrated with a stick " because God knows there are fields and fields full of hopefuls relying on those stepping stones to reach their eventual goal, and they certainly need all the help they can get. Of course, as these forums bear witness, most of them soon discover that the route is thin and precarious. It may be cheaper, but that doesn't really help if you fall into the raging torrent. Progress across the stones is often glacial, and getting a foothold on the first one impeded by the thousands of others queuing to cross. Once on the other side, those lucky ones often discover (read the T&E forum,) that their progress to the riches that await, is further hampered by the cadets that crossed the bridge ahead of them. That, or a leprechaun demanding a £30K joining tax tells them they might to have sit it out until the climate improves.

It is a tough life, and whichever route you embark on there are simply never going to be any guarantees. I understand your animosity and I understand those stepping stones are cold, windy and bleak (but very character building!) I understand why you chant your mantra and encourage the crowds to throw stones at the bridge, and warn those thinking of paying the toll of the perils of crossing. I am just not sure that your precarious perch in the middle of the river is really the place to be doing it from.

But, if it keeps you warm.......

mad_jock

Absolutely no back pedalling I am afraid. You can dream.

Well you wouldn't would you, it those of us that pick and choose through the CV's in the end of the market you obviously have zero clue about which is normally cruising 10-20,000 ft below you on a different frequency.


Shouldn't that be the very very lucky very few.

And earning 30k with no debt and living near a regional airport will give you loads more disposable income than paying the tax man loads of cash and paying through the nose for accommodation etc.

There is no animosity just I am replying to your one sided outlook. Yes you get the cream. Good for you. I get the poor sods who don't have anything else to fall back on knocking at the door begging for a job.

And there are hundreds if not into thousands out there integrated trained that dream about earning 21k a year flying a multicrew turboprop. At least its flying.

Yes you see the success, you choose to ignore the distress and finical ruin that your advice reaps. And now the Ryanair have stopped taking folk that will be with the majority of the output.

What to do with 300-400 trained up pilots who's currency is up in 12 months when the next batch come out. Who cares some might say its 25 Million plus into the training system.

fwjc

It's certainly interesting to see both sides of the argument for/against integrated discussed so articulately by strong advocates of each side.

I think it's horses for courses. You need to look past the shiny advertising and "promises" made by integrated schools. But similarly not all modular routes are optimal.

I interviewed at a big integrated school and was offered a place on their high level scheme since I passed all their tests with no problem. There was no way on Earth that I could afford their course, not now, not ever. I went modular, while maintaining a full time job. Three years later, I had completed everything and had £30k worth of debt and a job and i still had my own house by the skin of my teeth. This is a lot better than £100k worth of debt, with or without a job. I am now paid to fly, and am nurturing further opportunities. [Edited to add that even if I had £100k handy, I would not have gone integrated, although I would have considered doing ground school full time.]

I have several friends who have travelled both routes in recent times. Four modular people are now in full time flying jobs; one in freight, one in regional, one with a large national carrier, and one with varied ops including air-taxi etc. None of my friends who went integrated have flying jobs. Two integrated friends who went with the same big school I interviewed with don't have flying jobs, although one did start out with some part time work. I've another friend who is with that school now. I have no doubt he will find a job, but this is because he's a natural leader, hard worker, multilingual and mature in his outlook. Another modular student also failed to get any decent flying work and is now doing something else entirely.

This is a small sample size so not a huge amount can be taken from it regarding relative "success". But what it does show is that modular does not preclude you from getting a job, and integrated does not guarantee you a job. Your personal skills, life experience, and flying skills all play a part, and both routes only teach a portion of these skills and not always to a high standard. I've flown with a big school graduate who actually couldn't judge a glide approach or the flare. And I'm the first to admit my theoretical knowledge isn't as deep as I'd like - the downside of not being spoon-fed and relying on distance learning. More work to do there for me.

Really, there are more than two sides to this story, but the fact is it isn't a one size fits all. The main thing is to do your research, and go in with your eyes open.

Bealzebub

yes! I thought that point was clear when I stated:When you say: is why I suggest that your logic may require a little help from Amnesty International. Where does this "no debt" come from? Are you seriously suggesting that all of these pilots struggling to raise funding for their training, and selecting modular training courses as a result, have no debt? Do you think that the majority of wannabes (with any serious intent) are looking for an income that avoids "paying the taxman loads of cash"? The vast majority of people would be happy with anything that does indeed keep them flying, and keeps the wolves at bay. I would be very surprised and disappointed if all but a tiny minority wouldn't welcome any "stepping stone" opportunity with arms open wide. However, if you think this is the end goal for most people borrowing £50K or £90K and looking for a rewarding career in aviation, I think you might be barking up the wrong tree.

I don't doubt there are a few people who would be perfectly happy (initially at least) regarding a job in small regional airlines as a career. For them I would say ignore everything I have written, because you probably would be wasting your money in some cases. I don't doubt there are many more pilots who would be delighted to receive a stepping stone opportunity with a view to jumping on the next (better) stepping stone at the first opportunity. May the "stepping stones" be large, vacant and plentiful, would be my wish, (sadly they aren't.)

Then there are those looking for the fast track opportunities. Whether this be because they are particularly ambitious, the perceived kudos, or because it is the only direct route to the best levels of remuneration in the industry, or indeed any combination of the above, the choices are simply much more limited. Telling them otherwise is simply untrue. Telling these people to save themselves some "cash" by taking a route that will largely preclude them from this option, simply serves to hide the reality.

I have said it so many times, but will say it again. This is not a career for the fainthearted. It is an extremely expensive, frustrating and difficult career to break into. The paths to the top are littered with bodies. The pitfalls and traps are many, and a lot of people fall into them. If you are determined, resourceful and have the ability, then research....research....and keep researching, until you are satisfied with the risk that you may be assuming. There are routes to the pinnacle, and there are a few fast track rides to get there as well. In the case of the latter (and certainly the former) they come with no guarantees, and an enormous amount of risk.

Mad_Jock states that:
From his journey up the pole for the last few years, he might mistakenly think that, but I have been there and done that. Many times I have described the history of the last 30 odd years that has led to the current marketplace for ab-initio and low hour pilots. The history is there for anybody who wants to read it. Strangely (or perhaps not) that history is never challenged. Todays integrated (CPL/IR) course is comparable to that (approved CPL/IR syllabus) in existence 30 years ago. Todays modular CPL/IR requires about a third of the experience levels of yesterdays (non-approved) CPL/IR course. These changes were brought about in order to align the Uk's licencing system with that in most other ICAO member states, where the CPL was more of an "aerial work" ticket, than an "Airline pilot" passport. Obviously this opened the floodgates to thousands of new pilots aspiring to a Commercial Pilots Licence, but still labouring under the idea that it would be their ticket to a first tier airline seat.

It wasn't 30 years ago, and it generally isn't now either!

mad_jock

The fact is which you admit yourself the vast majority of the people who pay for the expensive course are not going to get any benefit from it.

So although not quite in the league of National lottery levels of risk the gamble of putting your family's and your own finical being onto a single number on the roulette wheel isn't a good bet.

If you get preselected and tagged the level of risk is reduced to an acceptable level.

But I know for a fact if any of the lower tier of the market airlines approached with a request for FO's or a cadetship they would get there arm bitten off to get some of the product placed. We could send a request to any of the schools even with salary's lower then you quoted which they aren't I might add, significantly more. And we would get the positions filled.

There is a colossal over supply of low hour's pilots in the market. And the taking of any premier course doesn't actually effect your risk level. Yes there are opportunities which you might get access to. But realistically the student has to be realistic about there chances. Are they going to be the lucky ones out of 300-400 that the gamble is going to pay off for. Or are they going to be the ones left on the street with a huge debt to service no flying job of any kind and watching the next batch coming out at which point they are immediately forgotten about by an organisation which has been their life for the previous 2 years.