Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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It's almost as though you all treat www like a voodoo doll on which you pin the blame for the current situation.
Anyone who denies what is happeneing and what lies ahead is in deep denial. The power of positive thought will not change anything, the mass of the economy has much, much too great a momementum - the outcome is inevitable and unstoppable. From here we must let nature run it's course and be realistic. If you are not realisitc you are setting your life up for a good few years of shock, disappointment and acute worry. If you are realsitic the process will be a much more measured one.
Taking the p*ss out of WWW might make you feel like you are gaining acceptance with a small but pointless, pathetic group on PPRUNE but it is an ignorant, unfair (to the more suggestable) and ultimately for yourself, futile process. The purpose of this forum is to establish facts and advice, and, structures and methods on gaining and maintaining a career in aviation - specifically for most as a pilot. Saying the depression is going to be less severe and blatantly underestimating the timescale of things is not planning for the worst (something we all do/did/hope to do in the career we have invested so much in) and is reckless. Planning for the worst leaves you something in reserve. Give the guy a break, he is offering you excellent advice and for all the right reasons.
I can not guarantee a thing as to the timescale and magnitude of things to come (though I do have my opinions) but what I can assure with some weight to anyone lucky enough not to be too far gone into the disaster that is pilot training that you will not miss a thing by putting off your training for a couple of years. There is NO ship that will have sailed. However, train now and you could very well find yourself, with out the intense currency that will see you good in an interview and sim check, without the fresh, detailed knowledge that will help answer questions confidently and, quite frankly, without a prayer.
Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands. In this career, you fly by the book and the numbers, the facts and the rules NOT by your gut and your hopes, and, denial and 'positivity'. You are where you are, do NOT try and convince yourself you are somewhere you are not.
'The book and the numbers, and, the facts and the rules' are readily available on this site in the form of articles pasted from newspaper articles, newspapers themselves and from the much more credible posters on this site.
We will all end out with what we deserve. Don't train now.
Anyone who denies what is happeneing and what lies ahead is in deep denial. The power of positive thought will not change anything, the mass of the economy has much, much too great a momementum - the outcome is inevitable and unstoppable. From here we must let nature run it's course and be realistic. If you are not realisitc you are setting your life up for a good few years of shock, disappointment and acute worry. If you are realsitic the process will be a much more measured one.
Taking the p*ss out of WWW might make you feel like you are gaining acceptance with a small but pointless, pathetic group on PPRUNE but it is an ignorant, unfair (to the more suggestable) and ultimately for yourself, futile process. The purpose of this forum is to establish facts and advice, and, structures and methods on gaining and maintaining a career in aviation - specifically for most as a pilot. Saying the depression is going to be less severe and blatantly underestimating the timescale of things is not planning for the worst (something we all do/did/hope to do in the career we have invested so much in) and is reckless. Planning for the worst leaves you something in reserve. Give the guy a break, he is offering you excellent advice and for all the right reasons.
I can not guarantee a thing as to the timescale and magnitude of things to come (though I do have my opinions) but what I can assure with some weight to anyone lucky enough not to be too far gone into the disaster that is pilot training that you will not miss a thing by putting off your training for a couple of years. There is NO ship that will have sailed. However, train now and you could very well find yourself, with out the intense currency that will see you good in an interview and sim check, without the fresh, detailed knowledge that will help answer questions confidently and, quite frankly, without a prayer.
Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands. In this career, you fly by the book and the numbers, the facts and the rules NOT by your gut and your hopes, and, denial and 'positivity'. You are where you are, do NOT try and convince yourself you are somewhere you are not.
'The book and the numbers, and, the facts and the rules' are readily available on this site in the form of articles pasted from newspaper articles, newspapers themselves and from the much more credible posters on this site.
We will all end out with what we deserve. Don't train now.
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The Beak
Quote "Anyone who starts now is an increadibly risky person and is not someone that belongs in a £40-50 million, 60 ton jet with 170 peoples lives in their hands."
What's thate statement supposed to mean?
What's thate statement supposed to mean?
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Stage 9 "loss of confidence amongst foreign investors" is the key. If things did follow the flow diagram then what you have to remember is that other parts of the world are NOT in the sh+te that the US and UK are facing. We will see the Far East, China, India etc continue with life/trading and the 'naughty boys' on the sidelines. The balance of power will change- America and the UK could become third world counties. Look at history and the rise and fall of great nations. Incidentally, Japan plodded on during the 90's producing some good stuff despite economically being in the poo.
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Apart from the fact that I misspelled incredible I can't see what is difficult to understand in what I said. For those that can't see the wood for the trees, let me explain.
Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.
People beginning training now, especially on an integrated course:
1. Have no foresight.
2. Are risk takers.
3. Have no situational awareness and are suffering from environmental capture.
Of course most who undertake pilot training at any time are taking a risk. But not like this. It has never been close to this in my opinion.
Risky people don't belong in the flightdeck. People who start training now on an integrated course are risky people. You complete the equation.
Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.
People beginning training now, especially on an integrated course:
1. Have no foresight.
2. Are risk takers.
3. Have no situational awareness and are suffering from environmental capture.
Of course most who undertake pilot training at any time are taking a risk. But not like this. It has never been close to this in my opinion.
Risky people don't belong in the flightdeck. People who start training now on an integrated course are risky people. You complete the equation.
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Someone willing to spend £60K + on flight training (in the most part secured against their dearest loved ones possessions) with the facts facing us now is a risky person. When faced with marginal weather, diminshing fuel available and a full load the airline needs someone who frees themselves from subjective feelings (like being bored of their current job and being 'desperate' to be a pilot) and looks at the facts. They need someone who has the foresight and prevents the situation from occuring infact.
I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?
These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop. It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.
Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?
I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?
These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop. It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.
Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?
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FTSE.....Best month in six years
First customer this morning leave Daily Telegraph in office after I wash his car and ths is headline as I think you call it in english.
It not seem to match things said in post above, and on page 33 it say "US slump is almost over, IMF predicts.
It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.
Tonight I show this to uncle Alexander and see what he say as he also work with financal experts.
Last night I get email from Lenka and see say she work very hard and airline going flat out. Also this airline promote from crew of cabin to pilot if you get ATPL and three guys already do this.
I might go back home and try for crew of cabin job as back home this OK job and it not requirment back home to be as Trevor my boss at car supermarket say "limp of wrist"
I show Lenka's email to Uncle Alexander last night and he say it may be way to get pilot job but it defanatly not first time Lenka flat out at work.
I hope Monday wather OK as I try to fly Effvect of controls 2
It not seem to match things said in post above, and on page 33 it say "US slump is almost over, IMF predicts.
It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.
Tonight I show this to uncle Alexander and see what he say as he also work with financal experts.
Last night I get email from Lenka and see say she work very hard and airline going flat out. Also this airline promote from crew of cabin to pilot if you get ATPL and three guys already do this.
I might go back home and try for crew of cabin job as back home this OK job and it not requirment back home to be as Trevor my boss at car supermarket say "limp of wrist"
I show Lenka's email to Uncle Alexander last night and he say it may be way to get pilot job but it defanatly not first time Lenka flat out at work.
I hope Monday wather OK as I try to fly Effvect of controls 2
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Absolute nonsense, if you have the money do the training now, by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end. Sure in the mean time ALOT of Pilots will be made redundant and due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm MANY of them will never fly commercially again. If your a Pilot in your fifties and you get made redundant now the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect. Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal. If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets! Thats my 20 cents!
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Thats my 20 cents!
Numerous unproven, unfactual, assumed, pointless statements:
by the time you graduate this will all be coming to an end
due to the average age of the Pilot workforce being higher than the norm
the likelyhood is that you will call it a day and go and buy a bar in Marbella or something to that effect
Have a look at the commercial flight training schools at the moment, they seem a little quite and desperate and are willing to bargin for a cut price deal.
If you can afford to do this without prostituting yourself to a bank then get a good deal and do it now
before we get back to peak oil and the price of training sky rockets!
I am starting to think some people are endulging in schadenfreude.
Last edited by TheBeak; 1st Aug 2009 at 17:03.
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I'm sorry beak but you trained with Oxford and now (regrettably), don't have a job. Why didn't you have the foresight to prevent this from occuring?
These pompous generalisations against current wanabes must stop
It could be argued that today's wanabes might have a better chance of employment in 18-20 months time than you did when you finished training.
Why shoot down someone who is following in your footsteps?
As I have said I am not saying never train to be a pilot, just don't do it near to now. Some things are worth waiting for and if you all want to be a pilot as much as you say you do then it'll be no problem.
Take on board the advice, criticism and facts or I think you'll live to regret it.
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My evidence is based upon what I see not upon what I read. Seeing is believing in this day and age. What I see as someone that works in Aviation is an awful lot of the bold and old calling it a day, and there are many.
I have just visited many modular FTO's recently and I have been offered a discount at several that would not have been possible even a year ago. This is without paying upfront, just simply based on the acknowledgement that I will complete both my CPL and IR at these schools.
I don't need 60K since I'm not integrated, its called years of hard graft and it works!
I have just visited many modular FTO's recently and I have been offered a discount at several that would not have been possible even a year ago. This is without paying upfront, just simply based on the acknowledgement that I will complete both my CPL and IR at these schools.
I don't need 60K since I'm not integrated, its called years of hard graft and it works!
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It seem that financal commisar WWW and IMF not agree.
"Britain will have the biggest debt of any major economy next year, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The Government budget deficit will soar to £191billion, the Washington-based organisation has warned. "
Re the IMF vs Me:
Whilst being guilty of blowing my own trumpet here I think you'll find my predictions of a debt and banking crisis and a very large recession were made much earlier and much more accurately than the IMF's.
I also advised following my jump out of the stock market at FTSE 6,300 in Spring 2007 and selling my house and renting from April 2007 (4 months before Northern Rock) in anticipation of a house price crash (now down 25%). I also mentioned buying gold at $820...
You're only as good as your next prediction but I'm happy to put my record up against the IMF or BoE or anyone else (other than Goldman Sachs maybe..).
We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one. <rant off>
<rant on> And another thing, is it ever ever going to stop bloody raining in this country?! Height of summer - cruel joke more like it, I've been towing cars stuck in mud and water this morning in what felt like a monsoon at the Somme.. <rant off>
WWW
Whilst being guilty of blowing my own trumpet here I think you'll find my predictions of a debt and banking crisis and a very large recession were made much earlier and much more accurately than the IMF's.
I also advised following my jump out of the stock market at FTSE 6,300 in Spring 2007 and selling my house and renting from April 2007 (4 months before Northern Rock) in anticipation of a house price crash (now down 25%). I also mentioned buying gold at $820...
You're only as good as your next prediction but I'm happy to put my record up against the IMF or BoE or anyone else (other than Goldman Sachs maybe..).
We are in a horrible mess. Paying off this debt will be a task still shackled around the neck of my newborn son on his retirement day. History will judge the UK economic management of the last decade as a reckless disgrace. And whilst I'm having a rant why the hell did I spend yesterday morning at the funeral of an 18 year old boy killed in Afghanistan? This government has managed the trick of beggaring us financially whilst spilling our brave servicemans blood pointlessly. The country is a bloody shambles and I feel sorry for any youngster trying to get any career off the ground never mind an aviation one. <rant off>
<rant on> And another thing, is it ever ever going to stop bloody raining in this country?! Height of summer - cruel joke more like it, I've been towing cars stuck in mud and water this morning in what felt like a monsoon at the Somme.. <rant off>
WWW
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Sleepless nights, WWW? 
I think you are right regarding government. History will show that the late 80s, 90s and early millennium was a pitiful time as far as leadership of this country was concerned.
I think you are right regarding government. History will show that the late 80s, 90s and early millennium was a pitiful time as far as leadership of this country was concerned.
A few - yeah
In October 1991, in the depths of the last major recession in the UK, then chancellor Norman Lamont seized upon a couple of business surveys showing a little more optimism about the future to suggest that the economy was finally turning around:
It took another 2 years for unemployment to peak and 5 years until house prices rose above general inflation. I expect to hear Darling make a similar speech within the next 9 months. Bear in mind though that it was 5 years before pilot recruitment recovered last time.
WWW
In October 1991, in the depths of the last major recession in the UK, then chancellor Norman Lamont seized upon a couple of business surveys showing a little more optimism about the future to suggest that the economy was finally turning around:
‘what we are seeing is the return of that vital ingredient - confidence. The green shoots of economic spring are appearing once again.’
It took another 2 years for unemployment to peak and 5 years until house prices rose above general inflation. I expect to hear Darling make a similar speech within the next 9 months. Bear in mind though that it was 5 years before pilot recruitment recovered last time.
WWW
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Not wanting to offer an opinion on where we are right now, I can state with absolute certainty that my particular side of aviation (standard PPL flying school/club) has yet to see any fall off in business. Indeed, our stats are well up on last year. That said, I 'm not burying my head in the sand. 