Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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to those who have seen recessions before..
Just tryin to suss something out.. what happens to the contents of the pool of pilots during a long drawn out recession?? obviously it will expand because people are being put into it due to losing jobs and those coming out of FTO's but will it shrink a bit because of people deciding to leave the profession?? If so what sort of pilot (demographic) will it be that decides to leave?? Common sense would say it would be reasonably experienced folks (read older and with wife and kids) due to the fact they have responsibilities and need an income NOW.. The inexperienced ones tend to be younger and have no or few responsibilities and can live with mom where as very very experienced pilots may still be able to get work..
Sooo; when the hiring does start who will be in the pool of available pilots?? will it be an even mix or will it be inexperienced folks because of more experienced people leaving aviation?? a seperate question would be who would the airlines be after?? Presumably when they have let people go; it would have been those who had been around less and who had less experience under their belts. Does this then leave an airline who is top heavy and now needs to hire younger or less experienced pilots in order to even out the demograhic of pilots within their company??
Just tryin to suss something out.. what happens to the contents of the pool of pilots during a long drawn out recession?? obviously it will expand because people are being put into it due to losing jobs and those coming out of FTO's but will it shrink a bit because of people deciding to leave the profession?? If so what sort of pilot (demographic) will it be that decides to leave?? Common sense would say it would be reasonably experienced folks (read older and with wife and kids) due to the fact they have responsibilities and need an income NOW.. The inexperienced ones tend to be younger and have no or few responsibilities and can live with mom where as very very experienced pilots may still be able to get work..
Sooo; when the hiring does start who will be in the pool of available pilots?? will it be an even mix or will it be inexperienced folks because of more experienced people leaving aviation?? a seperate question would be who would the airlines be after?? Presumably when they have let people go; it would have been those who had been around less and who had less experience under their belts. Does this then leave an airline who is top heavy and now needs to hire younger or less experienced pilots in order to even out the demograhic of pilots within their company??
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It is a virtual reality version of the lobster/fish tank in a posh restaurant.
Candidates who might be deemed suitable for employment are told that they will be considered again as future vacancies arise. Sometimes those that are removed from employment will be told that they will be considered again if and when new opportunities arise. It gives the company a resource to possibly draw from at short notice rather than having to re-initiate a new recruitment programme.
The pool or tank in a busy restaurant is a useful feature that lets the customer select their own choice of product, with the knowledge that it looks fresh and attractive. In a busy restaurant the pool can be added to as necessary, ensuring a ready source of supply.
Inevitably, sometimes the product will become damaged or cease to be fresh in the pool and it can then be removed, discarded and replaced with something fresher, or if the market contracts can be emptied altogether. The pool/tank is a resource for the restaurant. Not every fish or lobster will become a fine culinary presentation. The best will usually be selected first, the leftovers will be discarded or cycled into other products as their longevity and lack of freshness make them less appealing to the customer. Fresh additions will often be selected ahead of older survivors.
When the market for fresh lobster drops off, the product can be humanely thrown back in the sea. The tank can be emptied and cleaned with bleach. It may provide window dressing for a while, but if it is taking up space and/or costing money to run, it is likely to be put in a cupboard.
An airline holding pool has many of the same characteristics. It provides a resource for the company. It can pick and choose who it might want from that pool at its own whim. It can add to it at any time. It can empty the pool or discard items as it wishes. Unlike the real pool, in this virtual pool the product is only "an expression of interest" that might have moved on elsewhere. It costs little or nothing to maintain, and because it is virtual, it provides no guarantees of priority of supply, for either the candidate or the company.
Airline "holding pools" are therefore simply a group of people who have both given and received an "expression of interest," at a particular point in time. There is no particular commitment on either party. As time passes some of the denizens of the holding pool will cease to be as attractive to the company that interviewed them. Likewise some might have found employment elsewhere. A "holding pool" is not a job, or even a promise of a job. The companies expect the candidates to realise this and act accordingly. The candidates themselves should realize this and accept that as a product they have a definite shelf life in this respect.
Candidates who might be deemed suitable for employment are told that they will be considered again as future vacancies arise. Sometimes those that are removed from employment will be told that they will be considered again if and when new opportunities arise. It gives the company a resource to possibly draw from at short notice rather than having to re-initiate a new recruitment programme.
The pool or tank in a busy restaurant is a useful feature that lets the customer select their own choice of product, with the knowledge that it looks fresh and attractive. In a busy restaurant the pool can be added to as necessary, ensuring a ready source of supply.
Inevitably, sometimes the product will become damaged or cease to be fresh in the pool and it can then be removed, discarded and replaced with something fresher, or if the market contracts can be emptied altogether. The pool/tank is a resource for the restaurant. Not every fish or lobster will become a fine culinary presentation. The best will usually be selected first, the leftovers will be discarded or cycled into other products as their longevity and lack of freshness make them less appealing to the customer. Fresh additions will often be selected ahead of older survivors.
When the market for fresh lobster drops off, the product can be humanely thrown back in the sea. The tank can be emptied and cleaned with bleach. It may provide window dressing for a while, but if it is taking up space and/or costing money to run, it is likely to be put in a cupboard.
An airline holding pool has many of the same characteristics. It provides a resource for the company. It can pick and choose who it might want from that pool at its own whim. It can add to it at any time. It can empty the pool or discard items as it wishes. Unlike the real pool, in this virtual pool the product is only "an expression of interest" that might have moved on elsewhere. It costs little or nothing to maintain, and because it is virtual, it provides no guarantees of priority of supply, for either the candidate or the company.
Airline "holding pools" are therefore simply a group of people who have both given and received an "expression of interest," at a particular point in time. There is no particular commitment on either party. As time passes some of the denizens of the holding pool will cease to be as attractive to the company that interviewed them. Likewise some might have found employment elsewhere. A "holding pool" is not a job, or even a promise of a job. The companies expect the candidates to realise this and act accordingly. The candidates themselves should realize this and accept that as a product they have a definite shelf life in this respect.
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Enjoyed the Tank Fish analogy Bealzebub.... 
To add to Quant's point....
There was a note doing the rounds last month or so put out by GS's Jim O'neill. It pointed out, if we have a "robust" growth of 3% per year, it will take over 21 years just to get back to 2007 asset wealth levels, such as been the destruction.
Wait until next year, when it will be the UK's Public Sector turn to deflate.
To add to Quant's point....
There was a note doing the rounds last month or so put out by GS's Jim O'neill. It pointed out, if we have a "robust" growth of 3% per year, it will take over 21 years just to get back to 2007 asset wealth levels, such as been the destruction.
Wait until next year, when it will be the UK's Public Sector turn to deflate.
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After Delta Airlines reports a $257 million 2Q loss...
The eight biggest carriers, according to Michael Linenberg (BOA) will be on course for quarterly losses that may total $1.2 billion....
Still deflating....
The eight biggest carriers, according to Michael Linenberg (BOA) will be on course for quarterly losses that may total $1.2 billion....
Still deflating....
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"It's The Real Economy, Stupid"
Eric Sprott and David Franklin
sprot asset magament
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Marketsat.../July_2009.pdf
We are now in the early stages of depression. The economic indicators we follow to track economic activity are all signaling a slowdown of massive proportions. You woundn't know it reading the mainstream papers of course..........This month we're keeping it simple by focusing on the real economy....... cont on below
sprot asset magament
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/Marketsat.../July_2009.pdf
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U.K. Economy Shrank by 0.8% in the Second Quarter
July 24 (Bloomberg) -- The U.K. economy shrank more than twice as much as economists forecast in the second quarter as a record annual slump in construction, banking and business services kept Britain mired in recession
Gross domestic product contracted 0.8 percent from the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.3 percent drop, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 5.6 percent, the most since records began in 1955.
Gross domestic product contracted 0.8 percent from the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said today in London. Economists predicted a 0.3 percent drop, according to the median of 32 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, the economy shrank 5.6 percent, the most since records began in 1955.
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At least the reduction is less than before and we're through the worst and things are starting to improve everywhere. 
... this doesn't mean that some ill sheep won't be slaughtered though.
It's best to make progress than none at all.
We're going in the right direction and that's what's important! "Up" ... quite literally for me anyhow.
... this doesn't mean that some ill sheep won't be slaughtered though.It's best to make progress than none at all.
We're going in the right direction and that's what's important! "Up" ... quite literally for me anyhow.
The only two things sure to go UP this year and next are interest rates and unemployment.
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Fish tanks
I showz thees thread to my uncle alexander and he say that how the airlines know who in the pool?
Pilot not stupid and go for a lot of jobs and may be in lots of pools, if get a job then not in any pool. So when things get better airlines go to pool and find they all had the same fish and they all gone!
Any way Yesterday I get letter from home and my mother say that Lenka a girl I go to scool with give up her job in Prauge bar and now work as crew in the cabin for airline.
Mother say Lenka very pleased to no longer have to dance with pole but she still put on enough make up to paint two boats.
May be I go back east things not so bad coz eastern banks full of money from russan mafia.
Pilot not stupid and go for a lot of jobs and may be in lots of pools, if get a job then not in any pool. So when things get better airlines go to pool and find they all had the same fish and they all gone!
Any way Yesterday I get letter from home and my mother say that Lenka a girl I go to scool with give up her job in Prauge bar and now work as crew in the cabin for airline.
Mother say Lenka very pleased to no longer have to dance with pole but she still put on enough make up to paint two boats.
May be I go back east things not so bad coz eastern banks full of money from russan mafia.
The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system.
Jobs for cabin crew are much more plentiful than for pilots as many cabin crew view their job as not a lifetime profession.
The nasty phase of the worst recession since World Way Two has yet to be seen in Western Europe. Just two headline today:
Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online
or, try
British economic collapse rivals Great Depression - Telegraph
History suggest to us that the large airline collapses come after the technical recession has passed..
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Jobs for cabin crew are much more plentiful than for pilots as many cabin crew view their job as not a lifetime profession.
The nasty phase of the worst recession since World Way Two has yet to be seen in Western Europe. Just two headline today:
Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online
Recession twice as deep as 1990s and 'worst since height of the Depression'
Hard hit: Canary Wharf in London, where many workers have lost their jobs. The UK economy shrank by 0.8 per cent between April and June
Hopes of a swift recovery from the recession were dashed yesterday as it emerged the economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the Great Depression.
Over the last year, gross domestic product has slumped by 5.6 per cent, the steepest crash since quarterly records began in 1955.
Read more: Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online
Hard hit: Canary Wharf in London, where many workers have lost their jobs. The UK economy shrank by 0.8 per cent between April and June
Hopes of a swift recovery from the recession were dashed yesterday as it emerged the economy is shrinking at its fastest rate since the Great Depression.
Over the last year, gross domestic product has slumped by 5.6 per cent, the steepest crash since quarterly records began in 1955.
Read more: Fresh blow for recession recovery as UK economy shrinks by 0.8% | Mail Online
or, try
British economic collapse rivals Great Depression
The collapse in Britain's economy now rivals the worst days of the Great Depression, it has emerged.
Economic output shrank by 5.6pc in the 12 months to the middle of the year, according to official figures which shattered hopes that the recovery has already begun.
The Office for National Statistics said that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.8pc in the second quarter, following the unprecedented 2.4pc fall in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected GDP – the broadest measure of the country's economic performance – to shrink by 0.3pc.
According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.
The collapse in Britain's economy now rivals the worst days of the Great Depression, it has emerged.
Economic output shrank by 5.6pc in the 12 months to the middle of the year, according to official figures which shattered hopes that the recovery has already begun.
The Office for National Statistics said that Britain's gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.8pc in the second quarter, following the unprecedented 2.4pc fall in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected GDP – the broadest measure of the country's economic performance – to shrink by 0.3pc.
According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain's output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.
History suggest to us that the large airline collapses come after the technical recession has passed..
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Oh the joys of Euroland banks..... 
Remember the Telegraph who were "Politely" advised to censor (now
underestimated) figure of £16.3 trillion of toxic assets they're sitting on.....
Uncensored....
Censored...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ent-warns.html
Remember the Telegraph who were "Politely" advised to censor (now
underestimated) figure of £16.3 trillion of toxic assets they're sitting on.....
Uncensored....
A secret 17-page paper discussed by finance ministers, including the Chancellor Alistair Darling on Tuesday, also warned that government attempts to buy up or underwrite such assets could plunge the European Union into a deeper crisis.
National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.
“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. “
"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”
European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.
In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.
Banks account for their assets in different ways. Assets put into the “trading book” have to be marked to current market values, while those in the “banking book” are loans and other assets which the institution believes it can hold to maturity. Other assets are classified as “available for sale”, which are also marked to market values.
The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.
In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.
“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.
National leaders and EU officials share fears that a second bank bail-out in Europe will raise government borrowing at a time when investors - particularly those who lend money to European governments - have growing doubts over the ability of countries such as Spain, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Britain to pay it back.
“Estimates of total expected asset write-downs suggest that the budgetary costs – actual and contingent - of asset relief could be very large both in absolute terms and relative to GDP in member states,” the EC document, seen by The Daily Telegraph, cautioned. “
"It is essential that government support through asset relief should not be on a scale that raises concern about over-indebtedness or financing problems.”
European Commission officials have estimated that “impaired assets” may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the ‘trading book’ total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.
In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion.
Banks account for their assets in different ways. Assets put into the “trading book” have to be marked to current market values, while those in the “banking book” are loans and other assets which the institution believes it can hold to maturity. Other assets are classified as “available for sale”, which are also marked to market values.
The Commission figure is significant because of the role EU officials will play in devising rules to evaluate “toxic” bank assets later this month. New moves to bail out banks will be discussed at an emergency EU summit at the end of February. The EU is deeply worried at widening spreads on bonds sold by different European countries.
In line with the risk, and the weak performance of some EU economies compared to others, investors are demanding increasingly higher interest to lend to countries such as Italy instead of Germany. Ministers and officials fear that the process could lead to vicious spiral that threatens to tear both the euro and the EU apart.
“Such considerations are particularly important in the current context of widening budget deficits, rising public debt levels and challenges in sovereign bond issuance,” the EC paper warned.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...ent-warns.html
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It will be a while yet (years) before central banks even consider to rise rates....
They know that "paper" is being vaporized as soon as its coming off the press. Its takes time for central banks to work through 60 Trillon !( if they ever do)
Ex MPC member David Blanchflower even highlighted the great "unmentionable" truth in public...
Blanchflower Says BOE Risks Choking Off Recovery (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
They know that "paper" is being vaporized as soon as its coming off the press. Its takes time for central banks to work through 60 Trillon !( if they ever do)
Ex MPC member David Blanchflower even highlighted the great "unmentionable" truth in public...
Blanchflower
It’s very early days to say that you know the endgame is even in sight,
The bank should consider spending as much as 300 billion pounds in newly printed money, twice as much as the current total authorized by the government.
It’s very early days to say that you know the endgame is even in sight,
The bank should consider spending as much as 300 billion pounds in newly printed money, twice as much as the current total authorized by the government.
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Well if the Euroland banks are sitting on 16.3 trillion of toxic waste they should try the same accounting wheeze as the US banks just did and turn them into Phantom record profits then pay themselves huge bonuses for doing so. As long as everyone agrees that banks are allowed to use mark-to-make-believe or accrual accouting the day of reckoning will be pushed far far into the future - ABS/MBS typically have notional maturity dates way off in the future (decades, often 50+ years).
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"The looming collapse of the emerging Eastern European countries is likely to cripple the Austrian and Swedish banking system."
You've been reading Ambrose Cassandra-Malthus' column in the Torygraph again haven't you?! Not a good idea unless you want to end it all
You've been reading Ambrose Cassandra-Malthus' column in the Torygraph again haven't you?! Not a good idea unless you want to end it all