Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Panorama
If you missed it. Gordon Brown should have been on it.
WWW.
Not just GM. VW is going to the ECB for a bailout. Basically, that means every taxpayer in the Euro zone will subsidise every VW made.
If you missed it. Gordon Brown should have been on it.
WWW.
Not just GM. VW is going to the ECB for a bailout. Basically, that means every taxpayer in the Euro zone will subsidise every VW made.
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Topslide, you don't seem to be reading these posts. I don't think anyone is saying everything is OK, the opposing view to yours is only that we don't know how this will turn out, and a bit of balance is called for. All opinions are just opinions, and as valid or invalid as the next man's no matter how well founded their owners think they are.
Alex, I completely accept that extrapolating Dan and Air Europe onto todays situation is very flawed. Todays companies won't go bust for exactly the same reason and in exactly the same way.
What I was hoping to achieve is to get Wannabes to understand that the UK has seen recessions before and that in those recessions relatively big airlines did go bust. Much to the suprise of many of their pilots. For anyone much younger than me they wouldn't even be able to remember those times. For many wannabes the airline industry they have known has done nothing but expand and prosper at breakneck speed with a brief pause after Sept 11th.
That's why I like to harp on about Dan Air and Air Europe who were, I believe, two of the top four UK airlines by fleet size. Both bust within 12 month of one another.
Hundreds of pilots on the dole.
No jobs for wannabes for years and years.
That's the message and that's the history.
Its really a very scary industry from a job security point of view. Wannabes frequently don't understand this properly.
WWW
What I was hoping to achieve is to get Wannabes to understand that the UK has seen recessions before and that in those recessions relatively big airlines did go bust. Much to the suprise of many of their pilots. For anyone much younger than me they wouldn't even be able to remember those times. For many wannabes the airline industry they have known has done nothing but expand and prosper at breakneck speed with a brief pause after Sept 11th.
That's why I like to harp on about Dan Air and Air Europe who were, I believe, two of the top four UK airlines by fleet size. Both bust within 12 month of one another.
Hundreds of pilots on the dole.
No jobs for wannabes for years and years.
That's the message and that's the history.
Its really a very scary industry from a job security point of view. Wannabes frequently don't understand this properly.
WWW
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Anyone fancy a prestige sports car, have a look at the following auction which took place today: I quite fancy the Rolls Royce Phantom they were going for upwards of 350k 6 months ago.
Auction Report: Manheim Colchester Prestige Sale 11 Nov 08
Auction Report: Manheim Colchester Prestige Sale 11 Nov 08
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I don't agree that Dan Air and Air Europe are too much diferent than a number of companies that are vulnerable during this dark time. Most of our charter operators are still owned by companies that rely on income other than directly through the airline itself. Like I said in an earlier post, we will see the failures following the Xmas period.
The problem is it will be worse this time, as there are more vulnerable airlines. Two airlines going bust in the 90's has less of an impact than tens of airlines laying off pilots to save cash. If you catch my drift
Cheers
DB
The problem is it will be worse this time, as there are more vulnerable airlines. Two airlines going bust in the 90's has less of an impact than tens of airlines laying off pilots to save cash. If you catch my drift
Cheers
DB
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This recession is going to be deeper and longer than the last. The first industry to go into recession is the construction industry not caused by the usual factors but by the banks cocking it up and it is looking really bad
One of the reasons the big house builders have not gone bust is that they are still the best firms to sell houses, not the banks.
The first industry to leave the recession will be construction, it all ways is and usually because governments pump money into infrastructure. This does not happen overnight and will take a couple of years.
One of the reasons the big house builders have not gone bust is that they are still the best firms to sell houses, not the banks.
The first industry to leave the recession will be construction, it all ways is and usually because governments pump money into infrastructure. This does not happen overnight and will take a couple of years.
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More grim news from the US - DHL Express (US) is pretty much closed down:
FT - "DHL's US Express business will shrink from more than 400 stations to 100, and all 18 ground hubs will shut. The air network will handle about 100,000 daily shipments compared with capacity for 1.2m today."
FT - "DHL's US Express business will shrink from more than 400 stations to 100, and all 18 ground hubs will shut. The air network will handle about 100,000 daily shipments compared with capacity for 1.2m today."
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I've been following this story for the past few days. ABX Air flies around 250 aircraft for DHL. I think Astar flies another 50 odd. By closing the Ohio base which is home to ABX will cause a staggering amount of flight crew layoffs. Do the math with a MINIMUM of 4 crews per aircraft.
Although not confirmed yet, I feel we are seeing the beginnings of MAJOR pilot layoffs. Brace yourself ladies and gents!
Good luck DHL guys,
Cheers
DB
Although not confirmed yet, I feel we are seeing the beginnings of MAJOR pilot layoffs. Brace yourself ladies and gents!
Good luck DHL guys,
Cheers
DB
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Unrelentless, it goes on.
Unemployment up.
BT cut 10,000 jobs
GM on the brink
VW cap in hand to the ECB
Paulson reverses the $700b bailout. Apparently too much 'Toxic' debt ( I must check back on what I said about the global debt). Looks like the US taxpayer could be financing new car sales.
The Bank of England now says that not only is there a real prospect of undershooting the 2% inflation target but that deflation a real possibility. One prediction that I hoped, and still do, I would get wrong. Even Robert Peston is now using the 'D' word. That all a big turnaround from a month ago.
BT cut 10,000 jobs
GM on the brink
VW cap in hand to the ECB
Paulson reverses the $700b bailout. Apparently too much 'Toxic' debt ( I must check back on what I said about the global debt). Looks like the US taxpayer could be financing new car sales.
The Bank of England now says that not only is there a real prospect of undershooting the 2% inflation target but that deflation a real possibility. One prediction that I hoped, and still do, I would get wrong. Even Robert Peston is now using the 'D' word. That all a big turnaround from a month ago.
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What a negative spin, again.
Do you mean this VW? VW defies the economic slowdown
The FT seems to think that VW is using the ECB for liquidity only because the ECB offers 'generous conditions' not available elsewhere. Hardly 'cap in hand'. FT.com
Do you mean this VW? VW defies the economic slowdown
The FT seems to think that VW is using the ECB for liquidity only because the ECB offers 'generous conditions' not available elsewhere. Hardly 'cap in hand'. FT.com
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Originally Posted by Spinnaker
Paulson reverses the $700b bailout. Apparently too much 'Toxic' debt ( I must check back on what I said about the global debt). Looks like the US taxpayer could be financing new car sales.
This is no supprise and was already predicted. It's probably a better solution anyway and certainly better deal for tax payers.
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...and what did you think was going to happen to the RPI when they cut the base rate by 1.5% at a time when the price of oil was dropping so fast? It's a weighted index that gives greater emphasis to the areas where people spend a lot of money. Of course it's going to go down and, given those two big effects, why shouldn't it go negative for a short time? All it shows is that the cost of living fell. Sustained deflation is something else.
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It's a weighted index that gives greater emphasis to the areas where people spend a lot of money.
RPI fell through the floor as the mortgage repayment component has fallen to -2% next year; fuel is flat, but food inflation remains high.
RPI is not forecast to hit zero until the middle of next year. Going negative at all is a very serious issue - it is not the same as GDP contraction!
re TARP (US):
This is no supprise and was already predicted.
re VW:
Problem is that it is financed by shorter-term debt that is due and needs to be refinanced. Regardless of profits, it needs the cash asap to continue operations, and with the ECB handing it out (through VW's consumer credit arm) at better rates than the market, then they have taken this option.
Finally, if you take another look at today's FT - see this from Germany:
Germany’s recession is now set in black and white, confirmed by a 0.5 per cent fall in third-quarter gross domestic product. This was far worse than expected, with the real shocker being how badly exports have been hit as demand slumps worldwide. It is now fanciful to hope for any offsetting pick-up from emerging markets. Export growth, which was powering ahead strongly, could come to a complete halt next year.
Last edited by Re-Heat; 13th Nov 2008 at 18:39.
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..and, for a bit of schadenfruede re the greedy idiots that contributed to this mess Hegde funds lose £18 billion
