Anybody who wishes to make a contribution here whose view is more half full than my half empty is utterly welcome.
One sided rantings are of some but limited use to Wannabes trying to form an opinion. A hotly argued debate where views are contested and contrasting opinions put are of more use and provide a better read. Therefore whilst I am happy to play Bear its a much better play if other chip in as Bulls. Its never been discouraged and never will be.
Its quite right to question anything I say. A great danger is to make one or two calls correctly and then believe infallible insight has been discovered. It ain't so. I've been right about a HPC, how bad the credit crunch would be and about a recession. I may well be completely wrong about the upturn. It doesn't really matter any further than at least the benefit that Wannabes might get from having heard the arguments from people who aren't trying to sell them anything and who understand the business.
At the moment I predict a two year recession which started in Q2 2008. Best point for Wannabes to entering the job market would be Sept 2011. That's my optimistic projection.
I actually think that things will be worse than the 1990-91 recession because this time the whole developed world is in phase. Because the scale of the financial/banking crisis is usually closely correlated with the following recession and this is the worst money crisis since 1938. Because the aviation boom of the past decade has been unprecedented. Because Cheap Oil is gone forever this time. Because the house price crash is already twice as bad as the 1990's one and I believe that to be a close proxy for the following recession. Because in the last recession the industry was massively fat and wasteful and could respond by rationalizing and by inventing LoCo's and this time there are no new inventions at hand.
Its going to be worse this time I think. I've bought my farm and if needs be I can survive on the dole, good looks and charm... <cough>
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