Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Wannabes Forums > Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies)
Reload this Page >

Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

Wikiposts
Search
Professional Pilot Training (includes ground studies) A forum for those on the steep path to that coveted professional licence. Whether studying for the written exams, training for the flight tests or building experience here's where you can hang out.

Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 11th Sep 2009, 20:27
  #3021 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
NetJets Eliminates More Than 300 Jobs

Still deflating.....

NetJets Inc., the unprofitable plane-leasing unit owned by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is cutting more than 300 jobs after replacing its chief executive officer.

“Severe economic conditions facing the aviation industry” have reduced demand for flights, Columbus, Ohio-based NetJets said today in an e-mailed statement. Ted Lowen, a spokesman for NetJets, said the cuts could affect as many as 350 employees.cont....
Berkshire?s NetJets Eliminates More Than 300 Jobs (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 11th Sep 2009, 21:18
  #3022 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Hallandale Beach, FL
Age: 53
Posts: 43
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Still deflating.....
There's no deflation in the price of things people actually HAVE to buy in either the UK or US. The official inflation figures are total BS based on a basket of flatscreen bluray wiigits, naff oaky chardonnay and other flim-flam. Compare your bills at Tesco (or Publix), BP (or Mobil) and your utility bills, property taxes etc. to 5 years ago and you see we've had massive inflation that hasnt been reported.

The things that have deflated are living standards and asset values. Both of them were artificially (and temporarily) inflated by unsustainably cheap credit. Now its back to earth with a bump except that the 'Tesco inflation' isnt ever going into reverse so most people will be significantly worse off than before the credit bubble.
Penguin68 is offline  
Old 11th Sep 2009, 21:48
  #3023 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
There's always incentive for the government to massage the official numbers for price "management" of inflation indexed bonds.

Both Volume of Money & Credit are still contracting and we know what that means relative to available goods...
cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 12th Sep 2009, 20:58
  #3024 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,994
Received 164 Likes on 63 Posts
We're all getting a bit too bickery. We've been in this caravan of a thread for a long time now so its hardly suprising. I doubt any of us would fall out over a pint if we were put into the same bar.. Lets pause and have a bit of a group hug..

The fact is the industry is on its knees. Look up the 18yr economic cycle theory. Note the dates. Use wikipedia to find out about the MAJOR - big ones - UK airlines that went bust in the years following the last major recession. 18 years after the present one. Note the dates. Realise it all fits..

Ignore the people who blithley claim that 'nobody knows the future'. Of course they are correct. But. They fail to say 'those that know the past have a bloody good idea of what happens next'.



Don't train now. Don't start.


Its all royally fubar'd up for several years and even then then forget about the mad growth we had for the last decade which will never ever ever ever ever ever ever happen an ever ever ever ever ever again. Its over. It happened. Its gone.




There wasn't so much a boom as a nuclear explosion.


The people who will be most horribly burned and scared are those that don't realise this and who continue to fight to be given the chance to spend £70,000 on a training course.

Stop.

Please.


WWW
Wee Weasley Welshman is offline  
Old 12th Sep 2009, 21:36
  #3025 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
One could play devils advocate with the inflationists & suggest this may be the ideal time to take on as much debt as managable for those who anticipate inflation with an eye on possable future debt "reconciliation", currency crisis or some other 6 sigma event.

Either way be it deflation or inflation the airline industry is still in for a catastrophic period at least until 2015. Learning mandarin could be a usful way to pass some time.

People know whats on the table & its upto them to play their hand accordingly.....

If the inflationist are correct , then learning to "pilot" a combine harvester will be more profitable than an ATPL.....

Last edited by cjd_a320; 13th Sep 2009 at 01:02.
cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 12th Sep 2009, 21:39
  #3026 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Yorks
Posts: 53
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
"I told you that there was going to be"

Thank you www. Being very forward thinking as you are, then your future shouldn't be that bad....Should it? Good luck.

Regards
Puky
piky is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 09:17
  #3027 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2001
Location: England
Posts: 1,904
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Clearly WWWs thinking is concerning the UK only and not even growth around Europe. His own airline has over 70 A/C to come and their rival over 100. Oh and I'm fully aware of the need to replace aging aircraft or even selling some on making a tidy profit in the case of RYR but lets not kid ourselves here. A 10 year old a/c is not old. The first A320s are coming up to 20 years old and only now are they being retired.

I would broadly agree that there cannot be significant growth in UK aviation over the next 5-10 years as UK Ltd has major issues but who cares there’s a world out there. For UK pilot jobs, retirements and medical losses will mean that the balance is going to be the same as it always was anyway. Spend some time abroad where there will be a major boom and then come back home in no great rush – if you want to.

Let’s not forget that airlines employ professionals to look at the market and analyse trends. With over 500 a/c on order by M.E airliners and roughly the same number by F.E airlines, clearly they see massive scope for growth despite the recession. RYR still have over 100 a/c to come, EZY over 70 more. Therefore, airlines can still see a requirement for supporting growth in Europe too and that is why the order book is so huge.

Let’s not let the economic troubles of UK Ltd make us doubt the imminent growth in global aviation.
Superpilot is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 09:55
  #3028 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Betwixt and between
Posts: 666
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
And recruitment is starting again in the world out there. I doubt much of that will be relevant to modular SSTR wannabes though.

Although the UK seems unlikely to be economically virile for a while yet, I would be suprised if many people saw any sense in continuing the staycation trend next year, now that even more people realise it is much cheaper to holiday abroad. Some airlines maybe facing a capacity shortfall next Summer if they plan not to recruit, crazy as it sounds.

It is doubtful that borrowing will return to prior boom levels (or anywhere near), so fleet sizess may not exceed pre-bust levels even during the next 'boom'.

Saying that trying to predict this business is futile and any opinions (especially mine) are probably no better than inane ramblings. I suspect the same extends to the afore mentioned analysts who nearly all messed up their hedging strategies. Their decisions tend to attempt to drive conditions rather than pre-emptively react.
Sciolistes is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 14:54
  #3029 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: cyberspace
Posts: 181
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Let’s not forget that airlines employ professionals to look at the market and analyse trends.
They should have all hired WWW instead...

You'd think though the airlines would be aware of the cyclical nature of the industry... you get the impression they have very short memories.

You get an uptick in the economy, and then airlines go on these massive hiring and spending sprees as if it'll last forever, and then, inevitably, the economy goes into a bust cycle and next thing you know they're parking planes and laying off.

And the funny thing is they act like "we never saw this coming", but anyone with a history book can tell you the good times never last forever...

In fact, my view is that in aviation, in any given 10 year period of time, you seem to get 1 to 2 years that are really good, and then 8 years that vary between bad to super bad.

That seems to be the way it goes...

We've just begun the 8 year bad part...
PosClimb is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 15:23
  #3030 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,994
Received 164 Likes on 63 Posts
I wonder the same thing often.

Just how could so many airline executives not seen the bubble bursting on the horizon? Why does it not even seem to be something that is any Directors job description?

Fred Harrison was in print in the summer of 2005 predicting a massive crash in 2008 and stating precisely why and how. I bet nobody will be listening to him 15 years from now when the cycle repeats..

Governments always think they can in some way control boom and bust cycles, but so far they have failed. Why? Because their economic models are overly focused on labour and capital rather than on land and property prices, the things that really drive economies. Classical economists such as Adam Smith thought that because the supply of land is one of the few things that is by nature finite, it is land that ultimately determines our economic fate. So while we talk (endlessly) about investing in “bricks and mortar”, it is in fact the plot underneath the house that really makes the difference. In fact, the price of land is the best leading indicator we have of the state of health of the economy.

Look at what has happened to prices since 1979. In the Nigel Lawson boom/bust of the late 1980s and early 1990s, the price of new houses rose by 300%, but the price of raw land rose by 1,000%. Then both turned down, ushering in a recession that hit bottom in 1992. Then from 1993 until Gordon Brown moved into the Treasury in 1997, house prices stayed on an even keel. But while house prices subsequently escalated to an annual increase of 25% at their peak, the price of land launched into the stratosphere. Land prices have risen an extraordinary 1,700% since 1979.

If Churchill had not been defeated by the House of Lords the UK would have had a Land Value Tax that would substantially have insulated us from these massive boom and bust cycles. Land value tax - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

History tells us that it is in the years following the end of recession that airlines go bust. For Wannabes this means job prospects will not turn rosy for something like 5 to 6 years from now. That's an awfully long time to be getting rusty and trying to keep an Instrument Rating current.

Remember that it is in a LOT of people interests for you to believe recovery is around the corner and that NOW is the right time to start spending your training budget.

WWW
Wee Weasley Welshman is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 15:43
  #3031 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
As the economic cycle plays out,there's a good possibility that any remaining airlines will back under state control in a highly regulated form ( not just a UK centric view)

What would that mean for any future growth prospects.....

Aviations growth has been a reflection of credit expansion.So Aviations decline reflects credit contraction.

Last edited by cjd_a320; 13th Sep 2009 at 15:59.
cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 16:03
  #3032 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 1,224
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Suprpilot

RYR still have over 100 a/c to come, EZY over 70 more. Therefore, airlines can still see a requirement for supporting growth in Europe too and that is why the order book is so huge.
Think you are wrong there, FR tied themselves into a cut price deal with boeing and cant get out. If they could get out they would. They are getting brand new planes virtually by the week and parking up others, to say that there is "a requirement for supporting growth" is just pure folly I'm afraid.
smith is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 16:21
  #3033 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,994
Received 164 Likes on 63 Posts
easyJets growth is now very slow by any standard of the past decade.

I think net its about 7 aircraft per year for the next 3 years with new Airbus replacing Boeings completely and some sales of older Airbuses or types like the A321 inherited from GB.

But be under no doubt that the fleet sized based in the UK is shrinking. Hell they are taking 20% of the aircraft and pilots out of Luton and sending them to more profitable bases and routes in other EU countries. So think on. When the UK's second largest airline (by a country mile) next wants pilots it would be far FAR more useful if they could speak Spanish and Italian and be happy spending their career thousands of miles away from the UK. Do you fit that bill?

The passengers on tonights Rome to Madrid EZY123 won't be much impressed by your PA announcement in broad Lancashire will they? And try explaining to Luigi the Engineer the finer points of some MEL implication in your broken Italian and his broken English.

Think your 200 hours and JAA issued license is going to cut much ice in any other part of the English speaking world?

Think any airlines in the Middle East are going to exacerbate their dependence on foreign pilots by hiring non-local FO's?


I know that plenty of Wannabes here aren't British. But most are. They need to be aware that what has been experienced over the past decade has both:

a) stopped, and

b) won't happen again


Then plan accordingly. But its in plenty of peoples interest not to mention this to them. A constant supply of Wannabes clutching a bag full of money is very much in the interests of the Government, the Flying Training Industry and the Airlines.



Its sick.


WWW
Wee Weasley Welshman is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 20:33
  #3034 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
WWW :Just how could so many airline executives not seen the bubble bursting on the horizon? Why does it not even seem to be something that is any Directors job description
Usual Janis Groupthink & Mackay Madness of Crowds.

Seen as you successfully rode the final aviation impulse wave WWW
Do you still plan to stay in aviation or will you be looking to change industry/sector to ride the next cyclical expansion phase which will not be in aviation ?

cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 20:56
  #3035 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Yorks
Posts: 53
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Quote"
And recruitment is starting again in the world out there. I doubt much of that will be relevant to modular SSTR wannabes though.

Although the UK seems unlikely to be economically virile for a while yet, I would be suprised if many people saw any sense in continuing the staycation trend next year, now that even more people realise it is much cheaper to holiday abroad. Some airlines maybe facing a capacity shortfall next Summer if they plan not to recruit, crazy as it sounds.

It is doubtful that borrowing will return to prior boom levels (or anywhere near), so fleet sizess may not exceed pre-bust levels even during the next 'boom'.

Saying that trying to predict this business is futile and any opinions (especially mine) are probably no better than inane ramblings. I suspect the same extends to the afore mentioned analysts who nearly all messed up their hedging strategies. Their decisions tend to attempt to drive conditions rather than pre-emptively react."

Think that fell on deaf ears....The two economic experts on this platform still know best!!
Yes, there are jobs out there but a bike wouldn't suffice! Ramble on boys.
piky is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 22:02
  #3036 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,994
Received 164 Likes on 63 Posts
I'll allow a brief bit of navel gazing as it might possibly be of use in giving a Wannabe some perspective...


10 years of major UK airline flying Boeing and Bus, 10,000+ hours and the seat on the left with a £100k salary is where I'm at and I'm in the lower rather than upper 30's age bracket. Been very lucky, right place and right time.

Would I persue my career if my current set up fell apart? No. I don't think I would. Which is a suprise to me as I was a bit of a AeroSexual. Air cadets, gliding, RAF sponsorships, instructing, commercial instructing, PPRuNe involvement, airlines at 25 - flying has been a big big old part of my life. But I wouldn't follow it to the ends of the earth now. Its simply not worth it.

I know its a brilliant job against a whole host of measures. But it really, honestly, isn't what it was even in the 1990's. Managed by email, treated no different to a passenger at the airport, considered openly as a cost by the employer. No meaningful contact with the passengers half of whom clearly were dragged up without the basic principles of manners or politeness.

Aircraft where every switch and button is monitored. Where it automatically phones in every parameter of the flight you just Commanded to check for the tiniest error or broken parameter.

A job where promotion or any wrinkle in economic or currency values can mean having to move country. Where a routine medical or a simple accident can cancel your entire career. Where one mistake made at the wrong time can either see you sacked or dead or dead and your estate sued.



I still love it. Most of it and I'm under NO illusion that a Captains salary still is a lot of money and I'd never earn half it doing something else.

But.

I think if you said, You've Got To Move To The Middle East or something to keep working in this profession I'd simply stop. Go and do something for a quarter of the money, for a 10th of the stress, suffering less than half the tax, being able to claim triple the benefits and see my family double the time with a quarter of the commute and none of the shifts with all of the Weekends/Christmas/Bank Holidays. Yeah. Fine.

Poke my eye out and tell me I can't fly again and it would only be another chapter. I'm the least hippy, least green, gun toting, rear wheel drive, Clarkson loving, child of Thatcher you're likely to meet but, actually, I could manage on a lot less money in exchange for losing the obligations, demands, boredom and impositions of the job of UK airline pilot.

Many Wannabes might be suprised by how common such an attitude is amongst the Ares.



There are plenty of people doing the job you dream about who regard it as a pain in the arse.



I do love it though. Secretly. The magic is still there - just. There's many many more worse things you could do. So don't give up on your dreams. I made it and I'm nothing special at all. You could do it. The problem is the industry is vicious, doesn't care and will happily gobble you up and spit you out having taken all your money and never let you sniff at a job.

So time it right. Aim at 2015.


WWW


ps cjf_a320, specifically answering your question, No I don't back providing air travel services but I do see a big future in tourism. I see a third of the world (Chindia) going from UK 1905 to UK 1975 in the next decade. They'll want to visit Imperial Britain, land of Shakespeare etc etc. Rather than fly them I think there's more profit in hosting and entertaining them when they get here. That's my bet for the future. On the sidelines.
Wee Weasley Welshman is offline  
Old 13th Sep 2009, 22:04
  #3037 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Japan Airlines to Cut 5,000 Jobs in Three Years, Mainichi Says

Still deflating......

Sept. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Japan Airlines Corp. will cut 5,000 jobs over three years under a new management plan, the Mainichi newspaper reported, without saying where it obtained the information. The move will produce more than 100 billion yen ($1.1 billion) in annual cost savings, the newspaper said.
Japan Airlines to Cut 5,000 Jobs in Three Years, Mainichi Says - Bloomberg.com
cjd_a320 is offline  
Old 14th Sep 2009, 12:55
  #3038 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: FL 350
Posts: 346
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
Europe warns recovery could be short lived

The European Commission today forecast that Europe would return to positive growth by the end of the year but that the recovery might not be sustainable in 2010.
Europe warns recovery could be short lived - Times Online 'False dawn' in UK housing market BBC NEWS | Business | 'False dawn' in UK housing market An economic forecasting group has warned that the recent rise in UK house prices is a "false dawn".
The Ernst & Young Item Club says property values will not return to their 2007 peak for at least another five years.
heli_port is offline  
Old 14th Sep 2009, 21:14
  #3039 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: England
Posts: 14,994
Received 164 Likes on 63 Posts
We are in a fifth consecutive quarter of recession.

Real GDP fell 0.8% quarter-on-quarter.

Output has fallen 5.6% year-on-year the worst since records began in 1955.

The Bank of England base rate at 0.5%, is the lowest rate since the central bank was founded in 1694.

The Old Lady has eased £125 billion of new electronic money into the economy to create a false market in government gilts.

Nevertheless, the efforts thus far have met with little success: net bank lending to individuals fell to a fresh record low in June, net lending to U.K. businesses has slipped into negative territory in recent months, as repayments exceeded new loans.


---


This is a lull. Venture out and the storm will claim yet more victims.

WWW


ps Apologies to Guido.
Wee Weasley Welshman is offline  
Old 14th Sep 2009, 21:30
  #3040 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
cjd_a320:People are still in a form of Bubble psychology... Can't blame them really.
Its become accepted behaviour over the past 30 years, that if "things" come down or pull back it must be a good time to buy into. Fine during a credit expansion but deadly in a credit contraction.

We just need to work through this mini "bailout bubble" phase before the herd reaches its "point of recognition" of true economic reality....
You have to love coverage of the 1 year anniversary of LEH collapse .... The "usual" we saved the world & things are returning to normal....

This mini bailout bubble still has some ways to go before the herd starts to move.....

As Bob Janjuah at RBS (Government bailed bank) reminds people..... The elephant in the room is who bails out Government after they have bailed out everyone else....?

Last edited by cjd_a320; 14th Sep 2009 at 21:51.
cjd_a320 is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.