Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[Cows getting bigger]

WWW, you want to comeback to instructing.

[JB007]

WWW's post #3129;

Spot on, in everyword. To sum up, the flying is still awesome, this industry is pants!

[UAV689]

Yes it is an ace post, but reading it and comparing it to my current career in an office on better than average salary, with career prospects led me to below conclusions

"I know its a brilliant job against a whole host of measures. But it really, honestly, isn't what it was even in the 1990's. Managed by email, treated no different to a passenger at the airport, considered openly as a cost by the employer. No meaningful contact with the passengers half of whom clearly were dragged up without the basic principles of manners or politeness."

Above exactly the same outside of an airline i am afraid WWW, expecially the managed by email part, when i am out the office for a week, I kid you not over 500 emails on my return...And the manners of some of the people in the office makes me want to scream at them!!

"Aircraft where every switch and button is monitored. Where it automatically phones in every parameter of the flight you just Commanded to check for the tiniest error or broken parameter. " - Kinda the same in my job also, every piece of information I alter on our systems gets scrutinized and checked by a handful of people, all of whom looking to have a moan and get one up on you.

"A job where promotion or any wrinkle in economic or currency values can mean having to move country. Where a routine medical or a simple accident can cancel your entire career. Where one mistake made at the wrong time can either see you sacked or dead or dead and your estate sued." - I am lucky in that I dont have the risk of the ultimate price over my head if I do balls up though, although i guess a serious accident has the potenial to end most careers.

"I still love it. Most of it and I'm under NO illusion that a Captains salary still is a lot of money and I'd never earn half it doing something else. " I bet you still love it, I dont love mine!! bet you could ask a lot of people that want to fly do they love their current job and most would say no i imagine!

So dont go packing it all in just yet, things are not much different in a real job WWW!!

Maybe nothing is, what it was anymore...

[TheBeak]

Very true UAV.

[R T Jones]

I think we should suggest this website to anyone who is feeling remotely happy, it sure does kill off that.
Don't get me wrong, I am not having a go at anyone on here as I agree with a good amount of the posts. I'm just merely pointing out how depressing it is!
Phoned HSBC about loan deferral, joyful times.

[cjd_a320]

King Says BOE Considers Cutting Reserve Deposit Rate

Still deflating....

Kings going swedish..

Sept. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said policy makers are considering lowering the rate they pay financial institutions to hold reserves at the central bank to encourage lending. cont..

King Says BOE Considers Cutting Reserve Deposit Rate (Update3) - Bloomberg.com


What were they thinking two years ago?

King:
Britons should not expect another cut in UK interest rates for at least two years, the Bank of England indicated yesterday as it warned that inflation would rise far above its previous forecasts and persist at levels well above the government’s target until early 2010. cont..

That FT front page is hung up on quite a few walls.....


Money supply & credit ( take a look at the Feds own weekly MS figs) is still contracting and we know what that means for the airline industry..

Inflationists seem to have gone very quiet, which is a little disconcerting

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

The situation is unnerving. If we end up going down the Swedish route then we are going to be doing something that was totally unthinkable only two years ago. Something that only banking techies talked about in a hypothetical discussion.

WWW

[Penguin68]

The situation is unnerving. If we end up going down the Swedish route then we are going to be doing something that was totally unthinkable only two years ago. Something that only banking techies talked about in a hypothetical discussion.

The 'Swedish route' is entirely justifiable and typically pragmatic of them - as opposed to the dogma of the 'invisible hand fundamentalists' still clinging to their failed religion. You don't want private (or ex-private) banks to be penalised (by having negative rates) for leaving cash on deposit with the central banks instead of doing something productive with it? ... okay then, well maybe they shouldn't be able to leave it on deposit with the central bank at all - if it is inapropriate for the state to penalise, it should not reward them either by paying interest. Where would an entirely private banking system unhinderded by the intervention of dreadful socialist bureacrats be today? ... stone cold dead is where it would be, the financial system would have collapsed completely because 'real banks' and insurance companies were allowed to play in the casino, and they lost. Remind me whose idea that was? Oh, I forgot, this is all the fault of Fannie & Freddie distorting the godlike purity of the market right? ... its a well aired Rovian talking point but as usual its very far from the truth. I spent 15 years working in the casino as a risk analyst. I know what I'm talking about. Everyone knew a blowout was coming but they all thought they'd get out in time and some other idiot would be the 'greater fool'. Not many did get out, and even those that did got caught up in the downdraught: forget the retrospective spin, if it wasnt for the state even 'smarter-than-thou' Goldman Sachs would have perished despite being massively short RMBS via the ABX - their counterparties were bankrupt (e.g. AIG) and everyone knew that, so like Bear and Lehman before them Goldman's access to money market funding vanished.

After 80 years of social democracy the Swedes have left the US and UK for dead. The unemployed in Germany have a higher standard of living than tens of millions in the US who have 2 or more jobs yet Bunds are considered safer than T-Bills or Gilts and the Euro is stronger than the Greenback or Sterling. Whose model has failed? I had to laugh at the capital & labour comment ... which governments were practising Keynesian intervention until after the deregulated and in fact largely un-regulated financial markets blew up the real economy? Certainly not the ones in London or Washington. Are the public finances in a mess because (a) NHS nurses get paid too much? (b) there are too many state school teachers? (c) we had to bail the financial sector that ran wild with deregulation, in order to limit the collateral damage to the real ecomony. Socialise the risk, privatise the profit, and slag off the state. Great And no, we did not have the Iceland option, nor did the US or any major economy. Saying that the situation could be fixed or avoided by sticking to the purest of free market fundamentalist principles is like saying the dying patient just needs a few more leeches to get better. For what its worth, before I was a casino 'insider' I used to be a believer as well.

[UAV689]

I don't fully understand the in's and outs of inflation,but all I can say is that in the large succesful global retailer I work for we are getting price increases and will be passing these on! So give it 12 months and shop prices will be higher. They are also banking on a more farorable dollar rate,don't know if that will happen....

[cjd_a320]

Well written post Penguin68

And no, we did not have the Iceland option, nor did the US or any major economy.

With Bernake living in a Minskian world while perceiving it through friedmaite eyes, (as Steve keen points out) that sigma event is still on the table.



UAV689 farorable dollar rate as in a weaker US dollar ?

[Penguin68]

They are also banking on a more farorable dollar rate,don't know if that will happen....

When (maybe I shouldn't say 'when' but its pretty certain) the next stock market crunch hits (Q4?) the dollar will gain a lot of ground rapidly vs. Sterling and everything else but I doubt it will last more than a year like that. I'm looking to buy Sterling again below USD 1.30 and close it out when it reverts back to the 1.50 - 1.70 range. I'm pretty conservative and don't get greedy when I play the game so I never try to eke out the last cent. Ultimately both currencies are cursed by the aggressive QE and ought to decline vs. the Euro in the long term (note Merkel has already fired warning shots across the ECB's bow re. excessive QE) but relatively ??? You could argue that Sterling will suffer more long term as its not the global reserve currency but US consumers have more leverage to unwind and house prices are not propped up by the scarcity of land except for New York & San Fransisco. I'm neutral on cable long term.

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Penguin68, thanks for posting your knowledgeable insight.

I share your views, broadly. Though esoteric to a forum ostensibly focussed on pilot careers it is both rare and useful for Wannabes to be exposed to wider economic discussion. Their employment prospects are defined by it to a far higher degree than their basic training school, general aptitude or choice of tinted spectacles...

Bt Swedish route I was confining myself to what they've done with their central bank system and their ill-advised lending to the Eastern Europeans. Their wider economic model is another matter. I think its brilliant but can't work here because we don't have their levels of social cohesion, i.e. all white, all speaking Swedish, all third+ generation Swedes. All being >90%.

Going -0.25% is something I didn't expect to see in Europe in 2009. The Swedish Krona has yo yo'd but its like watching a theoretical experiment unfold in reality. If the Swedish bank lending is currently increasing (big if) then negative rates could be here by Christmas I reckon.

They're very desperate for a medicine that works. If one looks like it does they'll snatch its arm off. The medical books said Interest Rates at <0.5% would work and also said printing money (QE) would work and now the Doctors are starting to panic..


I've gone Chinese - I'm buying Gold on the dips.


WWW


WWW

[Penguin68]

WWW - apologies if I sound a bit over feisty today

Cards on the table - I now work in IT and I'm doing my PPL with a local FBO and I will very likely do my IR and ME eventually (there are other weekend distractions here ... affordable golf and sailing spring to mind) but I seriously doubt that I will ever bother with a CPL now. This is not at all what I had in mind when I quit the casino - I was scheduled to start with an integrated UK FTO in May but pulled the plug at the last minute as I watched the clusterf getting worse and worse. As you can guess I'm pretty peeved with that but I like what I do now a whole lot better than before and I have a 15 minute commute instead of 2 hours into London. Seriously I think anyone who did not pull the plug this year or last is King Stupid, but most of them aren't old enough to realise it yet. I didn't have to borrow a cent but it would still have been a terrible call to go through with it.

[cjd_a320]

Those old poorly written economic "medical" text books by Samuelson need to be binned and replaced with Minsky.

[piky]

Quote."I've gone Chinese - I'm buying Gold on the dips."

So have I....Can't sell enough scrap metal to the far east, (China & lately Turkey..by the 100's of tonnes) thats why I packed in flying Jumbo's

regards
Piky(Barred again Piky no doubt)

[Wee Weasley Welshman]

Don't get me started on Minsky. I love the guy. He was and is SO right and the text books of the future will put him above Keynes if there is any justice.

Give me a financial market endogenous speculative investment bubble any day of the week.

Minsky claimed that in prosperous times, when corporate cash flow rises beyond what is needed to pay off debt, a speculative euphoria develops, and soon thereafter debts exceed what borrowers can pay off from their incoming revenues, which in turn produces a financial crisis. As a result of such speculative borrowing bubbles, banks and lenders tighten credit availability, even to companies that can afford loans, and the economy subsequently contracts.

I'm sad. Quite sad.


Economics - its like drugs, just never ever start.


WWW

[Penguin68]

Those old poorly written economic "medical" text books by Samuelson need to be binned and replaced with Minsky

or Mystic Meg.

Most people who work in the city (and presumably WS too) become extremely cynical in time - you take your bonus and you look the other way - I did. Now I'm like the anti-smoking zealot who used to do 40-a-day ... and I left voluntarily (with over a year's pay for nowt). Only the interns or the people who really have no idea what is going on around them (back office, HR, IT) can stay 'true believers'. The casino is a pyramid scheme that works (most of the time) because of the supply of 'greater fools'. The quants applying gobbledigook maths to price structured deals have totally missed the point: something is only ever worth the price someone else is prepared to pay for it. So basically mark-to-model (aka mark-to-make-believe) businesses are intrinsically worthless. The other problem with the casino is that the interns and grad recruits are for the most part the most incredible puffed up bullsh*tters you will ever meet ... they are typically so arrogant that they assume everyone else already there doesn't know they're sh*tting ... its like they don't have the slightest idea what they don't know but they're strutting around like they're big swinging dicks.

I've also become extremely cynical about economics - or at least what it has become. Chasing non-existant holy grail equations that will reveal a generalised universal truth describing an intrinsically chaotic system that revolves around mass psychology is a waste of time and strikes me as being like theology: they'll both have gotten exactly nowhere 1000 years from now.

[spider_man]

IATA raises global airline loss forecast to $11 Billion in 2009

The global airline industry faces $11 billion of losses this year, greater than previously forecast, as business travel remains in a slump and fuel prices are rising, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday. The group expects airlines to lose $3.8 billion world-wide in 2010, as carriers struggle to generate revenue from their best customers, who either aren't flying or are buying cheaper tickets.
IATA sees premium passenger traffic falling 20% in 2009, compared with a 5% drop in traffic from the back of the cabin. The low demand for high-priced seats is expected to push yields, or revenue per passenger, down 12%.
Historically, it has been difficult to rebuild yields once they fall, Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's chief executive, said during a conference call with reporters. Following the last airline downturn, after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, it took the industry more than three years to claw back to 2000 revenue levels.
Now, the airline industry needs to make structural changes to regain its footing, Mr. Bisignani said. That includes more consolidation in the U.S. and Europe. Airlines also need to cut costs by using their hub airports more efficiently and investing in fuel-efficient aircraft, he said, adding that Airlines should keep pressing government officials for expanded "open skies" agreements to get past regulations that hamper global airlines' growth plans.
Near-term, Mr. Bisignani sees more airline bankruptcies, on top of nearly 50 resulting from the current recession. "In the last year-and-a-half, medium-sized airlines from all parts of the world" have fallen victim to the downturn, he said. IATA is now monitoring some 20 airlines with financial problems.

WSJ, 15 Sept-09

And...

IATA director general and CEO Giovanni Bisignani in a call with reporters today said, "We are in intensive care, and the crisis for us is not over."

Though IATA noted some improvement in passenger volumes as the year wore on—from a low of negative 11 percent is March—the airline association projected that overall passenger traffic this year would decline 4 percent. However, deeply discounted fares and depressed premium demand put airline yields on pace to fall 12 percent. As such, airline revenue is expected to fall 15 percent, or $80 billion, IATA projected.

"Even with better volume, we don't see industry revenue returning to 2008 levels until 2012 or 2013 at the earliest," Bisignani said. He noted that the industry, after its last major crisis following Sept. 11, 2001, "took roughly three-and-a-half years to recover those revenues," he said, "and let's remember that Sept. 11 was not a global crisis, it was a shock."

Weathering the storm, Bisignani said, comes down to airlines' ability to cut costs, improve efficiencies, cut capacity and preserve cash.

"Larger airlines have built up cash reserves of $15 billion in the past 10 months," Bisignani said. Of that, he said, $12 billion is in debt and $3 billion is in equity. "This is similar to a war chest to fight the crisis." Still, Bisignani noted that "some airlines have not been able to build up their reserves. They've relied on banks and banks are not lending," adding that means "we could see some more casualties in the coming months."

Bisignani was quick to note that the cost of fuel, though lower than it was a year ago, "is rising, and this could come back to bite us," stressing the importance for airlines to make strategic investments, chief among them more fuel-efficient aircraft. In the forecast, IATA projects oil to average $61 per barrel this year, up from the expected $56 per barrel in IATA's June outlook.

This is going to be one ugly winter!

[Grass strip basher]

I think it is bizarre that I now live in a communist country with a 16% tax rate and no potential for caps on how much I can earn in my profession.

Where as in the "land of the free" and the UK you are looking at 50% tax and caps on bonuses..... what a joke the UK has become after 10 years of Brown and his numpties..... and now China is accusing the US of unfair trade tariffs... the world has turned totally on its head!!!

As for sorting out the banking crisis almost all of the politicians STILL don't have a clue.... they are now just using it for political leverage rather than suggesting sensible solutions..... politicians = self-serving parasites..... you should not be allowed to be a career politician till you have been successful in another field first.... although I guess it is easier to blame all the mess on bankers than a society that is now morally and financially bankrupt.

Ooops gone off on one again... it just makes me made what a mess the UK is in and how little responsibility Brown has taken for his own roll in the financial crisis (eeerheeemm a decade as in No. 11!!)

P.S. the crisis is not just about bankers.... it is about certain parts of the global community that have borrowed to much and now can't repay what it owes.... the bankers have played a role but anyone who borrowed too much and can't repay it is MORE responsible for what has happened.

[Penguin68]

P.S. the crisis is not just about bankers.... it is about certain parts of the global community that have borrowed to much and now can't repay what it owes

thats a common republican talking point. blame the junkie - the pusher is just an honest enterprising capitalist. the mortgage brokers knew the loans could not be repayed, and told their clients how to lie on the application forms. the banks that securitised those mortgages knew and ignored it and took their cut. the investors (usually other banks) who bought the MBS ... well I can speak from personal experience that some of the traders involved were muppets not fit to run a tuck shop, the rest were pretty cynical and figured they could find a greater fool to unload them on at the top of the market - that'd be the aforementioned muppets. Problem was that the market was totally illiquid at the best of times - in fact the secondary market for non-agency MBS was virtually non-existent. But go ahead and blame the financially illiterate poor who had 'something for nothing' dangled in front of them by the mortgage brokers and realtors who told them they could get rich by flipping property with zero money down.