Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
And their shareprice indicates the City expects a 60% fall in profitability.. Oh, and you work for a flying school.
And just because the Chavs are still booking holidays on their credit cards is no reason to believe the economy is rosy.
WWW
And just because the Chavs are still booking holidays on their credit cards is no reason to believe the economy is rosy.
WWW
This is copied from the Rumours And New forum. It illustrates what has happened in the worlds largest pilot market. The US is around 14 months ahead of us in terms of a recession but we beat the in the race to have the first bank collapse...
<snip>
Don't know, but this is probably only the beginning. (related to the past few months, copied from an US forum)
United stopped hiring
Delta stopped hiring
Continental stopped hiring
Northwest stopped hiring
Expressjet stopped hiring
Skywest stopped hiring
ASA stopped hiring
FedEx stopped hiring
UPS has stopped hiring
Expressjet is offering pilots unpaid leave of absences
United is grounding 15-20 737 aircraft
Delta is grounding 10? mainline aircraft
Northwest is grounding 24 DC-9 aircraft
Regional flying has been cut substantially
Comair, Skywest, Expressjet, ASA, Mesa, and others have had their regional contracted flying hours cut
Aloha Airlines filed for bankruptcy (again)
Skybus cut back almost 50% of their routes
Froniter sold 4 aircraft
Jetblue sold 6 aircraft
Big Sky went out of business
Skyway went out of business
Aloha went out of business
Champion Air went out of business
Edit: ATA out of business
<snip>
It will be the same in Europe next year.
WWW
<snip>
Don't know, but this is probably only the beginning. (related to the past few months, copied from an US forum)
United stopped hiring
Delta stopped hiring
Continental stopped hiring
Northwest stopped hiring
Expressjet stopped hiring
Skywest stopped hiring
ASA stopped hiring
FedEx stopped hiring
UPS has stopped hiring
Expressjet is offering pilots unpaid leave of absences
United is grounding 15-20 737 aircraft
Delta is grounding 10? mainline aircraft
Northwest is grounding 24 DC-9 aircraft
Regional flying has been cut substantially
Comair, Skywest, Expressjet, ASA, Mesa, and others have had their regional contracted flying hours cut
Aloha Airlines filed for bankruptcy (again)
Skybus cut back almost 50% of their routes
Froniter sold 4 aircraft
Jetblue sold 6 aircraft
Big Sky went out of business
Skyway went out of business
Aloha went out of business
Champion Air went out of business
Edit: ATA out of business
<snip>
It will be the same in Europe next year.
WWW
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Interesting stats ....
WWW,
What is the general state of affairs in the Europe at the moment ?
Are carriers hiring, are they going into a similar mode as the US has?
TM
What is the general state of affairs in the Europe at the moment ?
Are carriers hiring, are they going into a similar mode as the US has?
TM
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I already told you that share prices of airlines can drop as much as you want, it doesn't affect traffic figures and pilots/aircraft needed.
If less people are willing to invest into airlines, I can understand them, there are way more interesting and lucrative markets out there.
If less people want to invest, it doesn't mean that less people are going to fly.
I can already hear you scream to your wife:
"Oh my god darling, the share prices of BA have dropped 2% today, I'll have to cancel my next week's flight
"
Now remember what I'm teaching you right now, I ain't gonna say it twice:
THE REAL INDICATOR OF PILOT JOBS ARE TRAFFIC FIGURES NOT AN AIRLINE'S SHARES' RISE & FALL.
The U.S. is hit by a bad blast, but it's their own fault.
The UK will also struggle out of compassion.
Mainland Europe is doing well just look at the traffic figures of February:
http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-012.pdf
Alitalia is doing bad but it has nothing to do with the US recession, just in case WWW would try to mention it.
If less people are willing to invest into airlines, I can understand them, there are way more interesting and lucrative markets out there.
If less people want to invest, it doesn't mean that less people are going to fly.
I can already hear you scream to your wife:
"Oh my god darling, the share prices of BA have dropped 2% today, I'll have to cancel my next week's flight
"Now remember what I'm teaching you right now, I ain't gonna say it twice:
THE REAL INDICATOR OF PILOT JOBS ARE TRAFFIC FIGURES NOT AN AIRLINE'S SHARES' RISE & FALL.
The U.S. is hit by a bad blast, but it's their own fault.
The UK will also struggle out of compassion.
Mainland Europe is doing well just look at the traffic figures of February:
http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-012.pdf
The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in February 2008.
Overall, traffic, measured in passenger-km, increased by 6.0% and capacity (seat-km) by 8.6%
Overall, traffic, measured in passenger-km, increased by 6.0% and capacity (seat-km) by 8.6%
Note: If you analyse the end of the table, you see that the only figure that show a decrease are load factor figures. A capacity increase of 8.6% means that that many more pilots are needed.
Alitalia is doing bad but it has nothing to do with the US recession, just in case WWW would try to mention it.
Last edited by Nichibei Aviation; 4th Apr 2008 at 07:53.
I fear Nichiebi that the God of Economics is going to teach you a big lesson. Harshly.
Were you involved with aviation during the early 90's recession? Do you even remember the early 90's recession?
I've just opened todays Times:
British Airways hit by fall in business-class passengers
Virgin may scrap in-flight beauty service
Acacia Avenue could catch Commercial Street chill: Where commercial property goes, so goes housing.
Since June last year the average value of commercial property has fallen by 15 per cent, according to IPD. The actual prices being paid, however, are down by nearer 20 per cent. The property derivatives market is currently pricing in a fall of 18 per cent for the whole of 2008. That would mean prices would have fallen 26 per cent between June last year and the end of December this year.
My analysis is much more pessimistic than that which you find in the mainstream press reports that I refer to here and in other posts. Nevertheless such daily tallies of woe and gloom serve to show that I am not imagining this and I am not alone in my gloomy economic outlook.
European airline failures are just months away. With them will come the redundant pilot. With that the wannabe market closes. Overnight.
WWW
Were you involved with aviation during the early 90's recession? Do you even remember the early 90's recession?
I've just opened todays Times:
British Airways hit by fall in business-class passengers
Virgin may scrap in-flight beauty service
Acacia Avenue could catch Commercial Street chill: Where commercial property goes, so goes housing.
Since June last year the average value of commercial property has fallen by 15 per cent, according to IPD. The actual prices being paid, however, are down by nearer 20 per cent. The property derivatives market is currently pricing in a fall of 18 per cent for the whole of 2008. That would mean prices would have fallen 26 per cent between June last year and the end of December this year.
My analysis is much more pessimistic than that which you find in the mainstream press reports that I refer to here and in other posts. Nevertheless such daily tallies of woe and gloom serve to show that I am not imagining this and I am not alone in my gloomy economic outlook.
European airline failures are just months away. With them will come the redundant pilot. With that the wannabe market closes. Overnight.
WWW
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Share prices
Over the last 6 years I have made two serious share investments of €30k and €22k through a particular well known loco based in Europe.(HHHmmmm I wonder who that could be!!!).
All told, they were a risk at the time as loosing that type of capital would hurt most people quite badly. Thankfully I have done relatively well on one and made a Gordon Ghecko style killing on the other(greed IS good my friends). I was fortunate enough to be able to read the market over those two specific periods in time. I feel flight training is similar, you are effectively trying to predict 18-24 months ahead of the current cycle.
My point, share prices go up, share prices go down. Its how their increase/decrease is interpreted is the key to the ongoing Pilot recruitment sector.
All told, they were a risk at the time as loosing that type of capital would hurt most people quite badly. Thankfully I have done relatively well on one and made a Gordon Ghecko style killing on the other(greed IS good my friends). I was fortunate enough to be able to read the market over those two specific periods in time. I feel flight training is similar, you are effectively trying to predict 18-24 months ahead of the current cycle.
My point, share prices go up, share prices go down. Its how their increase/decrease is interpreted is the key to the ongoing Pilot recruitment sector.
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If Alitalia goes bust, 3000 pilots will be released on the market, with some being picked up by Italian airlines like Itali and Air One.
I think that this is a bigger challenge than any "European airline's failure because of dropping real estate prices".
And yet, it may slow down the market for a few months, that still doesn't mean that new students starting today will find themselves looking for a job for ages.
If Virgin Atlantic's beauty service isn't doing well, it doesn't mean that Virgin Atlantic itself is doing bad, though one would certainly expect that seen that a big part of their earnings is in USD.
If BA is not doing well, it's because the UK is hit by the same problems as the U.S. as I've already stated.
Let's inform people adequately.
I and my employer (which seems to be your greatest argument, while you allow camouflaged flight schools to post anything on here) don't gain much by saying that everything is doing fine in Europe.
A slowdown would mean students would look for cheaper training and more flexibility meaning modular and eventually one of our (future) programs.
I think that your argument is not the right one.
Saying that people should choose for cheaper traininig because of a simulated slowdown is not the right approach. We should confront the students to the reality of expensive schools instead, who are giving the same training for twice the price and misleading students with "quality".
I think that this is a bigger challenge than any "European airline's failure because of dropping real estate prices".
And yet, it may slow down the market for a few months, that still doesn't mean that new students starting today will find themselves looking for a job for ages.
If Virgin Atlantic's beauty service isn't doing well, it doesn't mean that Virgin Atlantic itself is doing bad, though one would certainly expect that seen that a big part of their earnings is in USD.
If BA is not doing well, it's because the UK is hit by the same problems as the U.S. as I've already stated.
Let's inform people adequately.
I and my employer (which seems to be your greatest argument, while you allow camouflaged flight schools to post anything on here) don't gain much by saying that everything is doing fine in Europe.
A slowdown would mean students would look for cheaper training and more flexibility meaning modular and eventually one of our (future) programs.
I think that your argument is not the right one.
Saying that people should choose for cheaper traininig because of a simulated slowdown is not the right approach. We should confront the students to the reality of expensive schools instead, who are giving the same training for twice the price and misleading students with "quality".
Trust the Evening Standard newspaper to tell it like I think it is:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...ine/article.do
House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent
House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.
After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a devastating price collapse.
In a further blow, the Bank of England warned that the mortgage meltdown is going to get even worse.
That's it. Recession guaranteed and with every recession there has ever been airlines go bust or get smaller. The pilot hiring market freezes instantly.
WWW
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/a...ine/article.do
House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent
House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.
After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to a devastating price collapse.
In a further blow, the Bank of England warned that the mortgage meltdown is going to get even worse.
That's it. Recession guaranteed and with every recession there has ever been airlines go bust or get smaller. The pilot hiring market freezes instantly.
WWW
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Banks earn interests on loans
=banks want more people to borrow money
=banks want more people to buy homes
=banks want to force more people to sell their homes for less money
=banks diffuse rumours that people's homes are overpriced on the media
We've seen airlines going bust in the past few weeks because of the recession. Yet, we haven't seen any banks go bust...
=banks want more people to borrow money
=banks want more people to buy homes
=banks want to force more people to sell their homes for less money
=banks diffuse rumours that people's homes are overpriced on the media
We've seen airlines going bust in the past few weeks because of the recession. Yet, we haven't seen any banks go bust...
Not sure of your point there given that Northern Rock and Bear Stearns have both gone bust in the last 6 months.
Its by no means a UK only problem. Ireland is in worse shape than us as is Spain:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...-mostviewedbox
Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Madrid
Last Updated: 1:06am BST 04/04/2008
International banks are scrambling to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount, fearing that the country may be sliding into the worst economic downturn in its modern history.
Its by no means a UK only problem. Ireland is in worse shape than us as is Spain:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...-mostviewedbox
Foreign banks flee Spanish property debt
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Madrid
Last Updated: 1:06am BST 04/04/2008
International banks are scrambling to sell their holdings of Spanish mortgage debt at a steep discount, fearing that the country may be sliding into the worst economic downturn in its modern history.
Although to be fair the US is still showing us the future for Europe and the rest of the West. The IMF (THE IM conservative F!) will next week publish this:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3663457.ece
IMF to cut prospects for US growth by two-thirds
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
The American economy faces a painful recession that will be deeper than the downturn at the start of this decade and the most severe since the early Nineties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to predict next week.
Since WWII every US recession has resulted in a UK recession. Every UK recession has resulted in airline collapses. Every airline collapse results in no job for Wannabes.
That's enough joining the dots lessons for one morning I think.
WWW
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/to...cle3663457.ece
IMF to cut prospects for US growth by two-thirds
Gary Duncan, Economics Editor
The American economy faces a painful recession that will be deeper than the downturn at the start of this decade and the most severe since the early Nineties, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to predict next week.
Since WWII every US recession has resulted in a UK recession. Every UK recession has resulted in airline collapses. Every airline collapse results in no job for Wannabes.
That's enough joining the dots lessons for one morning I think.
WWW
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Dear WWW.
Can I ask what is your purpose on this forum, if it is not to try and put off wannabees as much as possible to start a career in aviation?
I do not think I have seen such pessmistic and negative opinions anywhere else.
There will always be a need for airlines, even in times of a downturn, if for no other reason than to fly administrators and liquidators around the world.
RB311
Can I ask what is your purpose on this forum, if it is not to try and put off wannabees as much as possible to start a career in aviation?
I do not think I have seen such pessmistic and negative opinions anywhere else.
There will always be a need for airlines, even in times of a downturn, if for no other reason than to fly administrators and liquidators around the world.
RB311
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Take WWW's advice on board as he is talking a lot of sense. That's not to say you shouldn't go forward with flight training if you have done the proper research but just be aware of the very possible outcome and make sure you have a back-up plan in place.
Oh, and make sure you take off the rose tinted spectacles.
PPPPPP
Oh, and make sure you take off the rose tinted spectacles.
PPPPPP
You may well not have heard such cautionary words elsewhere. Whom do you suppose would write them? The CAA? The Flying Schools? The airlines?
This place, this forum, exists as a somewhat unique resource for Wannabe where they may learn and exchange information about their desired career. If the information is that their desires may be thwarted by imminent and unfolding economic recession then whilst this is disheartening, saddening, and woeful, it is ultimately, useful information to have at hand.
I completed my basic training in a previous decade. I stopped being a commercial flying instructor early in this millenium. I am now a Captain in a growing EU airline with a fairly secure career. I have no Vested Interest in talking down the airline jobs market.
I serve only to provide a warning sign. A note of caution. To act as augury in a bid to protect a flock of Wannabes.
You are quite right. There is always a need for airlines. But with no growth there is little requirement for new pilots.. Splurging £80k on a dream right now might put you and your family in a nightmare tomorrow.
Please try to avoid the mistake of shooting the messenger..
WWW
This place, this forum, exists as a somewhat unique resource for Wannabe where they may learn and exchange information about their desired career. If the information is that their desires may be thwarted by imminent and unfolding economic recession then whilst this is disheartening, saddening, and woeful, it is ultimately, useful information to have at hand.
I completed my basic training in a previous decade. I stopped being a commercial flying instructor early in this millenium. I am now a Captain in a growing EU airline with a fairly secure career. I have no Vested Interest in talking down the airline jobs market.
I serve only to provide a warning sign. A note of caution. To act as augury in a bid to protect a flock of Wannabes.
You are quite right. There is always a need for airlines. But with no growth there is little requirement for new pilots.. Splurging £80k on a dream right now might put you and your family in a nightmare tomorrow.
Please try to avoid the mistake of shooting the messenger..
WWW
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Doom and Gloom
All this doom and gloom sells newpapers
Next month they'll be saying house prices due to double in the next year.
I dont believe any of it...
1. High employment
2. Low interest rates
3. Shortage of housing
Although
Shortage of credit but I know someone who easily got a mortgage; that said if your unemployed in Cleveland Ohio you might not get a mortgage anymore..
Is easyjet getting good load figures?
Next month they'll be saying house prices due to double in the next year.
I dont believe any of it...
1. High employment
2. Low interest rates
3. Shortage of housing
Although
Shortage of credit but I know someone who easily got a mortgage; that said if your unemployed in Cleveland Ohio you might not get a mortgage anymore..
Is easyjet getting good load figures?
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An interesting discussion. As someone has mentioned, I think it's important to draw a distinction between who this will affect. If you are half way through your training or are due to finish training in about 6 months, then the outlook may well be bad. You have a lot of debt, airlines go into hibernation mode to protect themselves from the future storm and in turn worsens the effect.
However, all that said, for the wannabe that is applying in 2 months, going on a course 2 months after that for the best part of two years, can you really apply the same negative forecast? Surely, 2 years and 6 months later, things should be picking up?
WWW, I part agree with you, although as a lot of it comes out of the media, it attracts some scepticism from me. They want to sell newspapers. What is the one thing that, without fail, will attract one's attention? Money.
Having said that, I'll be saving this page in my favourites, checking on what was said a few months down the line and suggesting WWW goes to work for Mervyn
However, all that said, for the wannabe that is applying in 2 months, going on a course 2 months after that for the best part of two years, can you really apply the same negative forecast? Surely, 2 years and 6 months later, things should be picking up?
WWW, I part agree with you, although as a lot of it comes out of the media, it attracts some scepticism from me. They want to sell newspapers. What is the one thing that, without fail, will attract one's attention? Money.
Having said that, I'll be saving this page in my favourites, checking on what was said a few months down the line and suggesting WWW goes to work for Mervyn
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Dear WWW,
I am coming at this from the inside, as I am already working for, like you, an expanding airline, which has an active recruitment process as well.
It just seems that a lot of your posts appear to paint such a un rosy like picture that it would be small wonder if any one embarked on a new aviation career.
But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.
You are right to highlight the potential downsides, I agree, but perhaps not to focus on them too much!
RB311
I am coming at this from the inside, as I am already working for, like you, an expanding airline, which has an active recruitment process as well.
It just seems that a lot of your posts appear to paint such a un rosy like picture that it would be small wonder if any one embarked on a new aviation career.
But like all industries there is a constant turnover of staff, whether it be retirement, illness or just plain pissed off with their job, and so there will be a need to attract new, keen, un-bloodied guns to take up the mantle.
You are right to highlight the potential downsides, I agree, but perhaps not to focus on them too much!
RB311
"All this comes from the media" is a difficult criticism to counter. The fact that the media is reporting what my own analysis of the data suggests means that I am able to illustrate my sentiments by pointing to media articles that share it. In by so doing I hope that my sentiment gains greater weight by fact of being shared by others.
I could quite happily post about the M3 money supply, house price affordability graphs, economic cycle theory and the BaselII banking regulatory reforms resulting in a money-as-debt economy that is doomed to collapse. But it doesn't lend itself to readable debate and I'd be dismissed as an internet Nostradamus lunatic.
High Employment is false. Unemployment is hidden by the Disability claimant count. Already redundancies in the thousands are happening in the world of finance, insurance, construction and engineering. The US employment figures show steady and accelerating rates of unemployement and the backward looking UK statistics will follow.
Low Interest Rates are false. At least a third of those looking to remortgage and all those looking for a first mortgage face interest rates of 6.7% after fees are included. Thats IF you can get a mortgage with your credit rating and LTV ratio. Those that are forced on to SVR will be paying North of 7.2%. When this is on a negative equity loan equalling 5 times joint houshold income then we are already way past the early 1990's boiling point of 15% interest rates on 3.5 times main income earners lending prevalent at the time. Don't even get me started on the Buy To Regret disaster and Liar Loans..
Shortage Of Housing is also a myth. Nearly one million houses are held as second homes or holiday residences which are entirely discretionary. All major housebuilders have stopped buying land and are slowing all sites work rate as they have a glut of unsold new build properties. We build between 160,000 and 180,000 homes in the UK every year and this is more than enough to account for population growth and the rise of single living. Immigration puts pressure on housing stock it is true. However, as the economy freezes over Harry the Pole and his million mates are gone in the blink of an easyJet booking...
Its not different this time. Its worse.
Research the 1991 - 1993 recession and what it did to airlines and pilots jobs.
WWW
I could quite happily post about the M3 money supply, house price affordability graphs, economic cycle theory and the BaselII banking regulatory reforms resulting in a money-as-debt economy that is doomed to collapse. But it doesn't lend itself to readable debate and I'd be dismissed as an internet Nostradamus lunatic.
High Employment is false. Unemployment is hidden by the Disability claimant count. Already redundancies in the thousands are happening in the world of finance, insurance, construction and engineering. The US employment figures show steady and accelerating rates of unemployement and the backward looking UK statistics will follow.
Low Interest Rates are false. At least a third of those looking to remortgage and all those looking for a first mortgage face interest rates of 6.7% after fees are included. Thats IF you can get a mortgage with your credit rating and LTV ratio. Those that are forced on to SVR will be paying North of 7.2%. When this is on a negative equity loan equalling 5 times joint houshold income then we are already way past the early 1990's boiling point of 15% interest rates on 3.5 times main income earners lending prevalent at the time. Don't even get me started on the Buy To Regret disaster and Liar Loans..
Shortage Of Housing is also a myth. Nearly one million houses are held as second homes or holiday residences which are entirely discretionary. All major housebuilders have stopped buying land and are slowing all sites work rate as they have a glut of unsold new build properties. We build between 160,000 and 180,000 homes in the UK every year and this is more than enough to account for population growth and the rise of single living. Immigration puts pressure on housing stock it is true. However, as the economy freezes over Harry the Pole and his million mates are gone in the blink of an easyJet booking...
Its not different this time. Its worse.
Research the 1991 - 1993 recession and what it did to airlines and pilots jobs.
WWW