777 driver in LA
You too are sitting in the deck chair and coming up with your "opinion" , your in no better position than anybody (WWW) to know. Nobody can know for sure there can only be a broad expectation. We manage a large fund here from Spain in Stocks , i can tell you that we made ( and will continue to ) a packet shorting airline stocks , homebuilders , banks and buying oil. A While back people laughed when i predicted oil to continue to climb ( it was about 90 dollars then ). We have a target of 175 USD a barrell with a stronger dollar than we are seeing now. 160 Dollars we think within 20 days.
The reason we made a packet is because now things are drifting in a less paniced fashion than was seen in Feb / March ) to new lows ( Dow , Eurostox, Transportation Average , SPX , Nasdaq etc. as the people who do know ( both the retail investors and fund managers ) come to assess the picture and arrive at the conclusion that there are huge problems ahead. These lows are not even being created by panic ( we probably get to see that next week with lots of volatility )
I can tell you that in the team of economists at our own firm there is no hurry to " cover " , were expecting the market to lose another 20% before year end. Panic next week , short term bounce , retail investors give smart money another chance again. People much smarter than me ( on of our guys is the director of risk Management in a large Iberian bank ) tell me we have only had a taste of the mess the US sub prime crisis has gotten us into.
When you dont see new lows in the airline stocks over a 5 month period thats the time to think about it. BMI is a recent example of an airline thats cancelled its intake , im sure there are tons more. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are recruiting right now. Name 4 airlines in Europe that are about to go pop ... a lot easier...
If this thread serves to prevent one poor sod from mortgaging a ( parents ) house that wont sell to end up stacking shelves in ASDA then its a great job . If its closed it should be made a sticky so it doesnt drift off into the ether.
No wonder pilots cant form a decent union if this thread serves anything to go by, the old timers are getting bitten by the new dogs.
Last edited by thirtysomething; 6th Jul 2008 at 00:09.