Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Good post v6g, thanks - Just love the big picture stuff, away from the world of BBC/Daily Mail! And explains the price of those barrels then!
Speaking of which, off to burn 55 tonnes to the Caribbean, must pack!!!
Speaking of which, off to burn 55 tonnes to the Caribbean, must pack!!!
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BP adds fuel to the oil price debate
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7449781.stm
European Airlines Reap Benefits of Oil Hedging
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/12/bu...l?ref=business
It's a great global debate. What has driven oil prices to their current dizzy heights? According to the oil producers' cartel Opec, the blame lies with speculators in the international markets. But Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, describes that view as "a myth".
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/12/bu...l?ref=business
PARIS — As United States airlines reel from soaring oil prices and a sinking domestic economy, most of their European rivals appear better placed to ride out the storm.
While no airline can avoid the oil price shock, analysts say, European operators are benefiting from the relatively strong euro, given that jet fuel is priced in dollars. European carriers also fly relatively newer models of Boeing and Airbus planes, which burn 30 percent less fuel than models from the 1970s and 1980s, many of which are still in use by United States airlines.
While no airline can avoid the oil price shock, analysts say, European operators are benefiting from the relatively strong euro, given that jet fuel is priced in dollars. European carriers also fly relatively newer models of Boeing and Airbus planes, which burn 30 percent less fuel than models from the 1970s and 1980s, many of which are still in use by United States airlines.
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Lurking123 I think you will find that what WWW is certainly very plausible.... people were harping on back in Jan/Feb when this thread started that WWW was over reacting.... if anything to date he is proved to be fully vindicated. You might not like what he has to say but anyone with half a brain can see we are in for a very rough 2-3 years.... maybe rather than throwing stones yourself you would like to explain why you think there will be more pilot jobs in the UK in 1-2 years time that today??
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Grass strip basher
Good post.
Late last year and into this year, I myself made a number of posts on another forum and wrote a couple of articles on the economy and the UK political situation. Broadly speaking, www comments here, follow a similar vein on my own observations about the economy. However, many of the factors that will have a profound effect on our lives, were starting to emerge late 2006 early 2007. Because I could see no corrective action from government or the Bank of England, that prompted me to investigate the economy more deeply and write about it. To begin with, I was slated, particularly when I said a major bank would fail and the financial sector would weaken. People started to listen when Northern Rock failed. To where we are now, I think its quite obvious for all to see.
My motivation to write here is because I know that there are many younger folk who are planning to invest everything they have, into an aviation career. And why not, there is something special about being a pilot and it is a career that is the envy of many. My guess is, a lot of the guys coming into aviation will not know what a recession is or how hard it bites, understandable, because they have not lived it. When you invest in a career, there is no money back guarantees, credit is getting harder, the jobs market for all is shrinking. I feel it appropriate as someone who has lived through recession, to use my past experiences, and highlight the warning signs, so that others can make a better judgement on what lays ahead for their future.
I feel sure that www is of the same mind. Doom and gloom, well for now anyway, but the reality has to be faced. People wont stop flying, people will still sell and buy houses. It's just that there will be a lot less people flying, houses are going to be considerably cheaper, and there is going to be a lot less disposable income in our pockets.
Late last year and into this year, I myself made a number of posts on another forum and wrote a couple of articles on the economy and the UK political situation. Broadly speaking, www comments here, follow a similar vein on my own observations about the economy. However, many of the factors that will have a profound effect on our lives, were starting to emerge late 2006 early 2007. Because I could see no corrective action from government or the Bank of England, that prompted me to investigate the economy more deeply and write about it. To begin with, I was slated, particularly when I said a major bank would fail and the financial sector would weaken. People started to listen when Northern Rock failed. To where we are now, I think its quite obvious for all to see.
My motivation to write here is because I know that there are many younger folk who are planning to invest everything they have, into an aviation career. And why not, there is something special about being a pilot and it is a career that is the envy of many. My guess is, a lot of the guys coming into aviation will not know what a recession is or how hard it bites, understandable, because they have not lived it. When you invest in a career, there is no money back guarantees, credit is getting harder, the jobs market for all is shrinking. I feel it appropriate as someone who has lived through recession, to use my past experiences, and highlight the warning signs, so that others can make a better judgement on what lays ahead for their future.
I feel sure that www is of the same mind. Doom and gloom, well for now anyway, but the reality has to be faced. People wont stop flying, people will still sell and buy houses. It's just that there will be a lot less people flying, houses are going to be considerably cheaper, and there is going to be a lot less disposable income in our pockets.
My motives are simply to ensure that naive wannabes are disabused of the marketing spin about flying training and are aware of the history of Wannabeism and the economic cycle.
When the next boom comes I will once again return to telling people here that this is a great time to train, that people are walking into jobs and that prospects look magnificent. As I did repeatedly from late 2004 - late 2006.
We are currently in the phoney war phase for Wannabes. There is still some recruiting resulting from business decisions made many many months ago. Airlines have only just finished reporting last years profits. Until now and for much of this year many airlines are fuel hedged and thus not feeling the full horror of the oil price. The consumer is only just starting to tighten their belts and many have already booked holidays or journeys. The house price crash has only just gone mainstream in the media in the last 6 weeks.
What this amounts to is a Tsunami of economic pain that will hit the UK and EU airline sector this winter. There won't be any profits and there won't be so many airlines and there sure as heck won't be as many passengers in as many aircraft.
For low time job hunters in debt and getting rusty this is all you need to know.
WWW
When the next boom comes I will once again return to telling people here that this is a great time to train, that people are walking into jobs and that prospects look magnificent. As I did repeatedly from late 2004 - late 2006.
We are currently in the phoney war phase for Wannabes. There is still some recruiting resulting from business decisions made many many months ago. Airlines have only just finished reporting last years profits. Until now and for much of this year many airlines are fuel hedged and thus not feeling the full horror of the oil price. The consumer is only just starting to tighten their belts and many have already booked holidays or journeys. The house price crash has only just gone mainstream in the media in the last 6 weeks.
What this amounts to is a Tsunami of economic pain that will hit the UK and EU airline sector this winter. There won't be any profits and there won't be so many airlines and there sure as heck won't be as many passengers in as many aircraft.
For low time job hunters in debt and getting rusty this is all you need to know.
WWW
Hot on the wires right this second - Continental Airlines announce fleet reduction of 67 aircraft and 3000 job losses.
Recall if you will how last year houses crashed in the USA but hadn't yet in the UK. We are 9 to 12 months behind the USA at this stage. DO NOT remortgage your parents house to blow 90k on flying training!
WWW
Recall if you will how last year houses crashed in the USA but hadn't yet in the UK. We are 9 to 12 months behind the USA at this stage. DO NOT remortgage your parents house to blow 90k on flying training!
WWW
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Originally Posted by Boeing7117
WWW,
What would your advice be to those that have recently completed their training, just about to starting paying back loans and due to start their first airline job very soon....?
What would your advice be to those that have recently completed their training, just about to starting paying back loans and due to start their first airline job very soon....?
Your first responsibility is to yourself (and your dependent family, if you have one). Remember the back-up plan we always told you to keep up your sleeve? Well, now's the time to get it out and dust it down.
Get yourselves employed in whatever field you can. If you have professional qualifications to fall back on, use them. If you have to stack shelves at Tesco's, so be it. Make sure you can feed yourself and put some kind of a roof over your head. If you're really in it up to your neck in debt that you took out to fund your training, now would be a good time to talk to your bank or whoever lent you the money to discuss ways of reducing your monthly repayments, if you think that's going to be necessary. DON'T stick your heads in the sand and hope it'll all go away, because it won't. You'll just end up in a bigger mess. If you're not sure what you should or can pay, or you have more than one creditor, or you just don't feel you can sort it out on your own, get yourself down to the local Citizens Advice Bureau.
In the meantime, keep applying for jobs. there will be some, somewhere. Even while things get very tough in Europe and even more so in the USA, it's likely that the 'Tiger economies' of the Far East will continue growing. There will continue to be jobs available out there, though as experienced pilots are released into the market from failed Western airlines (and there will be plenty), the hours requirements of new hires will rise.
If you have a new licence, you'll have to decide whether or not you can afford to keep it current. If you can, do it. Perhaps you can club together with other wannabes to get a few flying hours from time to time. If that's beyond your means, then don't let it get to you. Go and earn what you can elsewhere and come back when things look better. Keep on top of what the current requirements are to reactivate your licence, and make a plan of how you're going to do that when things are more positive.
Don't give up! Whatever happens over the next year or two, whether it's the full-blown economic meltdown that WWW predicts, or simply a period of stagnation, there will still be airlines flying passengers and freight around. Eventually, they will need new pilots. Your task is to make sure you're at the head of the queue once recruiting starts again - which it will.
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Well done Scroggs, I think he summed it up by saying that our role as wannabes is to be at the front of the cue and just be sensible.
I work for the worlds 2nd largest financial institution and we have the most up to date economic/financial data available and whilst the country is in a state of recession at the moment, I don't fully agree with WWW that the economy is in as bad a state as he says.
Yes we are slowing down - oil prices basically run the country and for that matter, a considerable amount of the world - however this is a supply and demand industry - at the moment, oil prices are high worldwide, not just the UK. I appreciate that tax in the UK is high - however it is not a percentage - therefore the government are not gaining on this - in fact they are losing out. As I say - supply & demand - therefore as in the UK, other large users of oil - mainly the US, are also seeing a slowdown in use. This will mean that oil is not being bought in the same quantities as it is currently - which therefore causes them to reduce the price.
This will NOT happen overnight, due to India, China & Russia using larger quantities. The other issue is that Russia, who are the new Saudi Arabia, are not covered under the oil regulators union, therefore there is currently no cost regulation. HOWEVER - this will change in due course.
What we will see in the next 12months is a slow down in the oil industry - this will drive down costs, which will reduce our levels of spend and therefore increase our usage.
In terms of utility cost increases - all are driven in a similar manner. It will turn around!!!!
Unlike the US though, we have a stable economy and although our economy spending is driven by the US spend, our financial institutions are able to control recessions better - hence why we are not seeing the stupid interest rate increases of the 80's - and unless something really stupid/drastic happens - we wont see that - which will cause the major recession.
My advice as an economist is that to do as Scroggs says above. No, you may not walk into a shiny new aircraft on graduation, BUT, there are still jobs available - just work a damn lot harder in networking to get one. We, as wannabes need to know that 12-18months from now, the job market will improve - yes higher experienced pilots will get hired first - but in the mean time - be an FI, join the Air Cadets as a gliding instructor, back-seat in training lessions etc etc - there are lots of ways to be in the air, or low cost outlay.
I work for the worlds 2nd largest financial institution and we have the most up to date economic/financial data available and whilst the country is in a state of recession at the moment, I don't fully agree with WWW that the economy is in as bad a state as he says.
Yes we are slowing down - oil prices basically run the country and for that matter, a considerable amount of the world - however this is a supply and demand industry - at the moment, oil prices are high worldwide, not just the UK. I appreciate that tax in the UK is high - however it is not a percentage - therefore the government are not gaining on this - in fact they are losing out. As I say - supply & demand - therefore as in the UK, other large users of oil - mainly the US, are also seeing a slowdown in use. This will mean that oil is not being bought in the same quantities as it is currently - which therefore causes them to reduce the price.
This will NOT happen overnight, due to India, China & Russia using larger quantities. The other issue is that Russia, who are the new Saudi Arabia, are not covered under the oil regulators union, therefore there is currently no cost regulation. HOWEVER - this will change in due course.
What we will see in the next 12months is a slow down in the oil industry - this will drive down costs, which will reduce our levels of spend and therefore increase our usage.
In terms of utility cost increases - all are driven in a similar manner. It will turn around!!!!
Unlike the US though, we have a stable economy and although our economy spending is driven by the US spend, our financial institutions are able to control recessions better - hence why we are not seeing the stupid interest rate increases of the 80's - and unless something really stupid/drastic happens - we wont see that - which will cause the major recession.
My advice as an economist is that to do as Scroggs says above. No, you may not walk into a shiny new aircraft on graduation, BUT, there are still jobs available - just work a damn lot harder in networking to get one. We, as wannabes need to know that 12-18months from now, the job market will improve - yes higher experienced pilots will get hired first - but in the mean time - be an FI, join the Air Cadets as a gliding instructor, back-seat in training lessions etc etc - there are lots of ways to be in the air, or low cost outlay.
Unlike the US though, we have a stable economy and although our economy spending is driven by the US spend, our financial institutions are able to control recessions better - hence why we are not seeing the stupid interest rate increases of the 80's - and unless something really stupid/drastic happens - we wont see that - which will cause the major recession.
WHAT!?
Stable economy? Its made of two thirds consumer spending, a tiny bit of manufacture and tourism and a hefty chunk of financial services. The latter is in crisis and sacking as fast as they can before they follow Bear Sterns and Northern Rock (Lehman and Bradford and Bingley for Act II). The consumer can no longer clear their credit cards by re-mortgaging and spending is contracting and will do viciously in the months to come.
That leaves us whistling in the wind with a tiny manufacturing base, massive export deficit and two decades of ever less impressive school leavers entering the economy.
The UK current account deficit continues to mushroom. It now stands at >3.5% of GDP which is the sort of number you used to associate with Italy.
Consumer debt is reaching an all time high. Total consumer debt now stands at over £1.3 trillion. There are fears that if interest rates rise to 6% (as is likely given recent inflation figures) then many consumers will struggle to finance their debt interest payments.
Government debt continues to rise, despite strong economic growth. The government is forecast to borrow £34 billion in the financial year 07-08. This is after the years of plenty. The years of famine start now and there's nothing put aside.
The UK has a LESS stable economy than the US and exceeds both personal indebtedness and house price unaffordability. It will be worse here than in the US - just like 1990 and 1972.
We are at the point labelled "energy" on the illustration below:
.jpg)
WWW
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Craig the thought of the second biggest financial institution in the world being based in Wigan bought a smile to my face! 
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Good post scroggs, realistic and balanced. WWW has lost alot of credibility on here, after reading his first few hundred doom and gloom posts i realised hes an unbalanced pessimistic, and probably jumps for joy and runs to pprune any time a bit of bad news about the economy or the price of oil hits the headlines. I now skip through his posts because i know they can all be summarised as followed: 'yada yada recession, blah blah airlines are going to start dropping like flies etc. etc.'
Thanks alot WWW, i think we all know exactly where you stand on the aviation market and the world economy at this point, could you maybe stop posting 30 times a day about how ****** we all are now?
Thanks alot WWW, i think we all know exactly where you stand on the aviation market and the world economy at this point, could you maybe stop posting 30 times a day about how ****** we all are now?
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Mark,
I don't like what WWW has to say either, but I don't think we should shoot the messenger just because we sense a degree of over enthusism and don't like the message.
I agree it seems repetative but that don't make it wrong ! and sometimes those of us in d nile need to be refocused
I don't like what WWW has to say either, but I don't think we should shoot the messenger just because we sense a degree of over enthusism and don't like the message.
I agree it seems repetative but that don't make it wrong ! and sometimes those of us in d nile need to be refocused
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Originally Posted by MarkColeman
WWW has lost alot of credibility on here
Originally Posted by MarkColeman
could you maybe stop posting 30 times a day about how ****** we all are now?
On another note, I sometimes question whether it is prudent to back up an argument with an article from the media...after all, when discussing an aviation related incident, do we check what the Mail has to say, and hold it as gospel?
Back up an argument with The Mail?! Heaven Forfend. I regularly cite the Telegraph or Times or Economist or specialist source. The tabloids - no.
MarkColeman - unbalanced I may be, I sold my house in April last year because I though the house market was going to crash and went into rented. But tell me I'm wrong.
Tell me I don't put my money where my mouth is. Tell me I wasn't here in Sept warning about a recession in 2008. Tell me I wasn't predicting UK airline failures last year when we've had SilverJet and EuroManx go down already this year.
Shoot the messenger mate. I really can take it and won't need my eyes drying - 10,000hrs in the logbook on Bus and Boeing and I could even go back to instructing punters such as you again if I had to. You chose to come here. You chose to click this thread. You chose to read my comments.
It annoys you? Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out - eh?
I've every sympathy for those that are going to be caught out in the coming recession. Sept11th hurt a lot of my friends and ex-student badly. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. Which perhaps explains why I am somewhat evangelical in my mission to rescue and spare those wannabes that can be rescued and spared from impending financial disaster.
I post nothing that I can't back up with either a graph, a source or an argument and I usually do. Win my respect by countering me or just carry on bitching at the messenger as shooting is not an option.
WWW
MarkColeman - unbalanced I may be, I sold my house in April last year because I though the house market was going to crash and went into rented. But tell me I'm wrong.
Tell me I don't put my money where my mouth is. Tell me I wasn't here in Sept warning about a recession in 2008. Tell me I wasn't predicting UK airline failures last year when we've had SilverJet and EuroManx go down already this year.
Shoot the messenger mate. I really can take it and won't need my eyes drying - 10,000hrs in the logbook on Bus and Boeing and I could even go back to instructing punters such as you again if I had to. You chose to come here. You chose to click this thread. You chose to read my comments.
It annoys you? Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out - eh?
I've every sympathy for those that are going to be caught out in the coming recession. Sept11th hurt a lot of my friends and ex-student badly. I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy. Which perhaps explains why I am somewhat evangelical in my mission to rescue and spare those wannabes that can be rescued and spared from impending financial disaster.
I post nothing that I can't back up with either a graph, a source or an argument and I usually do. Win my respect by countering me or just carry on bitching at the messenger as shooting is not an option.
WWW
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maybe, ...just maybe, it's 'the way you tell it' WWW thats getting people's backs up.
I don't think we need to know how safe you and your family are and that others aren't.....that your driving down the price of some poor b****rs house by submitting offers and withdrawing them etc etc.
It all just seems to be about how right you are and how wrong everyone else is.
No one is doubting how tough it is, but as sure as God made little green apples,... it will get better.
Perhaps it's time to follow the lead of your fellow moderator and offer advice and some hope that in the future, there will still be planes in the sky!
To 'slow down' training and reduce short term debt however is good advice, but it does not need the constant gloom and doom news flashes to back it up!
I don't think we need to know how safe you and your family are and that others aren't.....that your driving down the price of some poor b****rs house by submitting offers and withdrawing them etc etc.
It all just seems to be about how right you are and how wrong everyone else is.
No one is doubting how tough it is, but as sure as God made little green apples,... it will get better.
Perhaps it's time to follow the lead of your fellow moderator and offer advice and some hope that in the future, there will still be planes in the sky!
To 'slow down' training and reduce short term debt however is good advice, but it does not need the constant gloom and doom news flashes to back it up!
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Having been through the last downturn, one lesson is clear: however bad you wannabes think it will be, it will actually be worse by an order of magnitude.
If you don't like WWW's advice, or tone of, you're in the wrong game as burned you will get.
The only safe place to be right now in aviation is with a logbook containing 000's of hours on a marketable type. And even that is only relative, it just gives you more of a comfort zone if you're unlucky enough to be in a company that flops.
Keep the powder dry, there will no wannabe jobs by next winter and I predict that anyone losing their jobs with less than an a couple of grand BoeingBus hours might be in trouble too.
If you don't like WWW's advice, or tone of, you're in the wrong game as burned you will get.
The only safe place to be right now in aviation is with a logbook containing 000's of hours on a marketable type. And even that is only relative, it just gives you more of a comfort zone if you're unlucky enough to be in a company that flops.
Keep the powder dry, there will no wannabe jobs by next winter and I predict that anyone losing their jobs with less than an a couple of grand BoeingBus hours might be in trouble too.
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Beyond the looking glass.
This is a fascinating thread. If, as some are predicting, the price of oil heads towards $250 a barrel, I suspect that we will be in a place beyond even senor Welshman's experience - for example, not only airlines, but major regional airfields going bust as well.
Assuming for the moment that we experience the kind of recession that we have come to know in the last thirty years, say of three years duration, at what point in that recession would a wannabe be wise to start his training? my guess would be at the nadir of that recession - if you can judge it.
Assuming for the moment that we experience the kind of recession that we have come to know in the last thirty years, say of three years duration, at what point in that recession would a wannabe be wise to start his training? my guess would be at the nadir of that recession - if you can judge it.
Look - I'm not bigging up myself but people repeatedly insinuate that I must be some sort of suicidal pessimist needing an extra-strong Prozac prescription. When I refute that by saying I believed what I was saying and acted upon that last year people get jealous and displace their anger on me because I chose to be a buyer in a buyers market. Tough **** - life is a call and there usually isn't a safety net.
Many wannabes are TOTALLY ignorant of what happened 18 years ago and what is happening now.
If they read my words they are at least slightly better informed. They probably will press on regardless. At that point my job is done. I will look forward to spending most of 2009/10 in moderating posts about how few jobs there are and how onerous the debts are. Just like 2002/03.
I'm not here to be popular - its an important thing to understand, when you do it clicks into place.
WWW
Many wannabes are TOTALLY ignorant of what happened 18 years ago and what is happening now.
If they read my words they are at least slightly better informed. They probably will press on regardless. At that point my job is done. I will look forward to spending most of 2009/10 in moderating posts about how few jobs there are and how onerous the debts are. Just like 2002/03.
I'm not here to be popular - its an important thing to understand, when you do it clicks into place.
WWW
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If they read my words they are at least slightly better informed. They probably will press on regardless. At that point my job is done. I will look forward to spending most of 2009/10 in moderating posts about how few jobs there are and how onerous the debts are. Just like 2002/03.
My message to wannabe's:
Let's be reasonable, people, and work hard to get there. It's a job for life!!
My message to rich rgonabe's:
If you can easily afford it and you think that it's more convenient, go integrated. Don't get bored after 2 years, though.
Voilà, no need to debate further.
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WWW, im not shooting the messenger, this isnt the 18th century, we can all read the newspapers and turn on bloomberg. I'm shooting the sneering, holier than thou wannabe economist grim reaper of pprune.
The main reason that i personally find your ramblings to be nauseating is that im not, as you labelled me, a 'punter' that you could go back to instructing. I recently finished line training and an RHS on a major carrier. HOWEVER, when i had just started my cpl i read a typical post of yours warning that it was exactly the wrong time to be training, and spending a fortune doing multi engine cpl and ir training. And you know what? it really shook me up, and i considered taking a break from training. If i had listened to you i would now be back at my old crappy job and not flying for a living.
There are opportunities out there, and there will continue to be opportunities out there, whether here or abroad. Yes the current economic climate is dire, but it will not last forever.
So please, a bit of realistic optimism with your misery would go a long way
The main reason that i personally find your ramblings to be nauseating is that im not, as you labelled me, a 'punter' that you could go back to instructing. I recently finished line training and an RHS on a major carrier. HOWEVER, when i had just started my cpl i read a typical post of yours warning that it was exactly the wrong time to be training, and spending a fortune doing multi engine cpl and ir training. And you know what? it really shook me up, and i considered taking a break from training. If i had listened to you i would now be back at my old crappy job and not flying for a living.
There are opportunities out there, and there will continue to be opportunities out there, whether here or abroad. Yes the current economic climate is dire, but it will not last forever.
So please, a bit of realistic optimism with your misery would go a long way