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It does not need to be a nuke, they could use a dirty bomb in the likes of Israel etc, Ukraine has shown in the past that ingenuity can overcome such delivery hurdles. They have missiles with. 2000 mile range.
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A dirty bomb is bad but isn't on the same level as a nuclear weapon. This being why nations aren't content to simply have a dirty bomb but instead push for nukes.
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As an aside, as part of the operation a wave of KC-46 deployed west to Hawaii, Guam and Australia followed by a wave of 6 x B-2A (with the 7 on the raid that makes a total of 13, an impressive percent of the force to get airborne at the same time given their prolonged grounding and serviceability problems.).
Have they returned home or are they positioned in Guam and/or Diego Garcia? If the latter they will well positioned for any follow-up raids if required. |
Thought Trump had announced all the B2 aircraft had landed, perhaps not all in Missouri. Also, imagine the pacific wave didn't have to be fully mission capable to complete their part of the mission.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 11908981)
Thought Trump had announced all the B2 aircraft had landed, perhaps not all in Missouri. Also, imagine the pacific wave didn't have to be fully mission capable to complete their part of the mission.
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Vice President Vance: "Our view has been very clear that we don't want a regime change."
SecDef Hegseth: "This mission was not and has not been about regime change." SecState Rubio: Regime change is "certainly not the goal of what we're working on here." https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d70526cb1f.png https://www.politico.com/news/2025/0...appen-00417738 Trump floats regime change in Iran, muddying the administration’s message |
Value for money?
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities. When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards. In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland. In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure. When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat. Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons. |
Long thread with photos and analysis.
Why am I so unimpressed by these strikes? Israel and the US have failed to target significant elements of Iran's nuclear materials and production infrastructure. RISING LION and MIDNIGHT HAMMER are tactically brilliant, but may turn out to be strategic failures. Netanyahu's justification for conducting this strike was that "Iran has produced enough highly enriched uranium for nine atom bombs -- nine." He refers to Iran's stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% U-235 which, if further enriched, would be enough for 9-10 weapons. Let's consider. The 400 kg of HEU was largely stored in underground tunnels near the Isfahan Uranium Conversion Facility. Despite extensive Israeli and US attacks the facility, there does not seem to have been any effort to destroy these tunnels or the material that was in them……. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...174466551.html |
New York Times: https://archive.ph/cQnX0
Officials Concede They Don’t Know the Fate of Iran’s Uranium Stockpile A day after President Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been “completely and totally obliterated” by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, the actual state of the program seemed far more murky, with senior officials conceding they did not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium. “We are going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel and that’s one of the things that we’re going to have conversations with the Iranians about,” Vice President JD Vance told ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, referring to a batch of uranium sufficient to make nine or 10 atomic weapons. Nonetheless, he contended that the country’s potential to weaponize that fuel had been set back substantially because it no longer had the equipment to turn that fuel into operative weapons. The Iranians have made it clear they are not interested in having conversations with the United States, accusing Washington of deceiving Tehran during the last set of negotiations while planning the air attack. Moreover, that stockpile of fuel is now one of the few nuclear bargaining chips in Iranian hands…… The Israeli military’s initial analysis concluded that the site, the target of American and Israeli military planners for more than 26 years, sustained serious damage from the strike but had not been completely destroyed. But there was also evidence, according to two Israeli officials with knowledge of the intelligence, that Iran had moved equipment and uranium from the site in recent days. And there was growing evidence that the Iranians, attuned to Mr. Trump’s repeated threats to take military action, had removed 400 kilograms, or roughly 880 pounds, of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity. That is just below the 90 percent that is usually used in nuclear weapons. The 60-percent enriched fuel had been stored deep inside another nuclear complex, near the ancient capital of Isfahan. Rafael Mariano Grossi, the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said by text that the fuel had last been seen by his teams of United Nations inspectors about a week before Israel began its attacks on Iran. In an interview on CNN on Sunday he added that “Iran has made no secret that they have protected this material.” Asked by text later in the day whether he meant that the fuel stockpile — which is stored in special casks small enough to fit in the trunks of about 10 cars — had been moved, he replied, “I do.” That appeared to be the mystery about the fuel’s fate that Mr. Vance was discussing……. |
FWIW - here is how small an implosion warhead can get - the W-54 SADM.
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54 |
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11909003)
FWIW - here is how small an implosion warhead can get - the W-54 SADM.
https://x.com/engineers_feed/status/1937027826882113986/photo/1 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W54 |
He will be toast anyway.
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'He burned brightly'
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Originally Posted by EddyCurr
(Post 11908987)
Value for money?
I don't know about the rest of you, but having studied "before" and "after" images of the three Iranian nuclear sites targeted by the US, I simply do not see anything like what I would describe as "Obliteration" at any of the three facilities. When SpaceX blows up yet another Starship, they obliterate it. Every event is spectacular to watch. There is little that remains of each vehicle afterwards. In 2020 when a stockpile of ammonium nitrate blew up in Beirut harbor, infrastructure in the immediate vicinity was obliterated. Satellite viewable damage extended well inland. In 2015 the explosions at the Port of Tianjin obliterated an extensive portion of the harbor's infrastructure. When I heard that the Iranian sites had been obliterated, I expected to see that Isfahan had been wiped off the map. Nothing left but ash and debris (especially since the Israelis had already pounded Isfahan in earlier attacks.) I expected to see the elevations of the Fordo site significantly recontoured - displaying signs of a major seismic event, not just a few new ventilation shafts and a bit of dirt spilled at tunnel entrances. Ditto with Natanz - I expected to see a large concave bowl formation where the surface had previously been flat. Time will eventually reveal just how efficacious the US mission has actually been. I certainly hope that the reality is greater than the underwhelming present appearance. For a whole host of reasons. Before the US attack, Israeli sources were considering a Special Forces* raid on Fordo. Times of Israel, June 22: Israeli strike on Fordo increasingly likely. Publicly, Netanyahu has not ruled out Israel attacking Fordo alone, though officials have not provided any details on how that would be achieved. Of all of Iran’s key nuclear weapons-related sites, Fordo is believed to be the only one untouched by war. Channel 12 reported, citing a senior Israeli diplomatic source, that the Isfahan nuclear site was “destroyed” on Saturday. As the Natanz facility and other targets were heavily damaged or destroyed earlier in Israel’s campaign, the diplomat said that “only Fordo remains.” To destroy the threat posed by Fordo, four sources said it is now increasingly likely that Israel will launch a solo military operation. Israeli air superiority over much of Iran makes an operation more feasible, though still risky, said two of the sources. I think it's quite likely that the Israelis are planning raids on sites at which enriched Uranium and equipment are now stored. *I have seen a quote from an Israeli spokesperson that a raid could be carried out 'with people, not planes'. |
Originally Posted by John Marsh
(Post 11909108)
I think it's quite likely that the Israelis are planning raids on sites at which enriched Uranium and equipment are now stored.
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Also don’t discount signint and other communication intercepts to corroborate BDA.
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- if the Iranians were not motivated to have nuclear devices before, they certainly will be now (imho);
Originally Posted by tartare
(Post 11908900)
Even if the centrifuge halls themselves weren't breached, I wonder what sort of damage would have been done to the centrifuges themselves purely from shockwaves?
These are precision pieces of machinery after all. - ditto it is thought that the bulk of the enriched uranium (~400 kg of 60% U-235) is at the Isfahan storage tunnels; - setting up a centrifuge cascade in a new location is fairly simple, but the set-up activity and the operational activity will be observable; - following the people is surely within the capabailities of the intel assets; - observing the electrical consumption is a key indicator for the cascade train operation, hard to hide that - many previous strikes have been on the elecltrical supplies, especially the longer lead lumps; - (earth fill in Fordow tunnel entrances most likely was an attempt by Iran to create better post-strike situation, i.e. reduced collapse); >>> so the Fordow strike may be intended to flush the assets (human and machinery) into the open where they can be more easily targetted in the next iteration - (~400 kg of 60% U-235) enough for say 10 devices if further enriched - Khoramshahr (Kheibar) ballistic missile[2] offers a range of 2,000 km and can carry a 1,500-kilogram warhead.[3][4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khorramshahr_(missile) "Let's say Iran decides to rush a bomb. Iran can install ~1.5 cascades a week. In six weeks, it could have 9 cascades of IR-6 machines. It would take those machines about 60 days to enrich all 400 kg to WGU. Altogether that's about five months" >>> but to do that would mean running all the HEU through the centrifuges. Surely anyone with sense would only run batches through, and would keep the remainder well dispersed at other sites with plenty of bait-and-switch going on. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy Take a read of the Little Boy specs and you can see that it would not take much ingenuity and access to modern technology to fit such a basic device - so basic it did not even require testing pre-Hiroshima - on to a Khorramshahr-4 - Israel is currently taking out Irania missile TEUs pre-launch in 15-minute cycles - at ~30/day the leakage rate was about 10%, hence the hits in Tel Aviv etc - at 2 interceptors each it was quite likely the Iranian magazine (~3000 IRBMs) was deeper than the available Israeli/USA ABM interceptor magazine (unknown size) >>> so if this had been a game of patience, Iran was holding the deeper cards, hence the desire by Israel to push things along and change the game; - now Israel and/or USA needs to keep armed overwatch* 24x7 on Iran to a) further degrade IRBM launch capability (and win time to rebuild interceptor magazine (regrettable for Ukraine**)); b) flush out those enrichment assets, prevent next cycle of enrichment for n viable devices; c) try to change the nature of the game once again. >>> hence all the talk about regime change ( * I wonder how good on-orbit radiation detection is these days, and how much shielding is required to defeat that. Human intel seems more plausible to me. Not a good time to be a spook in Iran). (** Industrial production capabilities of interceptors really does need to ramp up to support Ukraine as well as Israel, ideally not just of the Patriot flavour) |
Apparently the Reds were at Mildenhall yesterday and could not get out in order to perform their display at Duxford. Presumably they based themselves there for the weekend. Says something about RAF/USAF co-ordination. But obviously operational needs come first...
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The USAF readiness level might have been elevated or more with high security level and no room for aerobatic formations operating in between.
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Like I said earlier the consequences of these actions will be far reaching, yes I agree Iran shouldn’t have nukes and it has surely put a dent in those plans, but the ramifications are massive, if they shut the gulf then oil will become a massive problem.
The world was ticking along nicely with only the Ukraine war to cause concern, but since the changes since the new president was elected it has turned into a quagmire: Oil prices will go through the roof We now have a war in the Middle East and regardless of what the WhiteHouse says about peace, this is not going to go away anytime soon, go to war with a country and you have to accept the consequences just as Russia is finding out. The markets and world economy is in free fall and the rise in oil prices will just exacerbate that. Rising oil prices will see more black market energy from Russia, higher prices will make their oil economically viable to produce and increased revenues will build their military sustainability to process the War in Ukraine. i cannot really see any win win situations in this, except they have put back Iran possibly for a decade. I just pray Iran does not revert to the likes of 911 attacks, though I wouldn’t put it passed them. |
If Iran "shuts off" the Gulf, how will China get its Iranian oil?
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A quick Google search (so accuracy may be an issue) indicates that 45% of China's oil currently passes through the Straits of Hormuz - so China will have a vested interest in the Straits staying open.
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Originally Posted by Biggus
(Post 11909168)
A quick Google search (so accuracy may be an issue) indicates that 45% of China's oil currently passes through the Straits of Hormuz - so China will have a vested interest in the Straits staying open.
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Russia has pipelines to China for both gas and oil.
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Russia will be eager to push oil prices higher.
So if Iran scratches Russia's back even by threatening to close the Straits, what will they ask for in return? |
And if Israel sends in a follow-up team, let’s hope there’s no unexploded US ordnance left in there.
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If you are going to protest in a foreign language, get a native speaker to help you spell, FFS.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5738a48ed.jpeg https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/...584&s=116&d=98 I had to laugh at the excerpt of a social media statement made after the bombing. MIGA. Make Iran Great Again. Coming right after an air attack, it's an odd variation on the old "We had to destroy the village to save it" meme from the Viet Nam era. But for me, the whole MIGA thing is unintentional humor. Here in Texas, migas are a common Tex-Mex breakfast dish. What are migas? ...a dish traditionally made from stale bread and other ingredients in Spanish and Portuguese cuisines, in different areas of Mexico, migas is a traditional breakfast dish consisting of crispy crumbled corn tortilla chips, to which scrambled eggs are mixed in. This preparation makes use of hardened corn tortillas left over from previous meals. I prefer the breakfast taquito with coffee, however. |
Has there been any more discussion about the 747 freighters from China? Where did they go after they left Iran? Did they take anything with them when they left?
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Yeah, that's a good question. Time will tell.
Looks like the Israelis are delivering more presents.
Originally Posted by CBS News
Tel Aviv — Israel said it carried out more strikes on Iran on Monday, targeting missile, satellite and radar sites two days after the President Trump ordered American warplanes to join Israel in attacking the Islamic Republic's nuclear facilities, fueling concern around the world of an escalating conflict in the heart of the Middle East with the potential to draw in major world powers.
Those concerns may continue to mount, as both Mr. Trump and Israeli officials hint at hopes that the military operations could result in the fall of Iran's theocratic rulers, and as Iran's top diplomat visits Russia looking for support from a key ally. Israel is also expanding its list of targets in Iran to hit sites linked directly to the ruling theocracy's grip on power domestically. The office of Israel's defense minister said Monday that the military was "attacking with unprecedented force regime targets and government repression entities in the heart of Iran." It was the first time Israel has acknowledged striking targets linked to the Iranian regime's domestic authority, rather than its military or nuclear assets. The defense minister's office said the new targets included the notorious Evin Prison, where political prisoners are held, a clock in Tehran's Palestine Square that symbolically displays a countdown to the destruction of the state of Israel, and the headquarters of Iran's Basij paramilitary forces, which among other things acts as a morality police force for the Islamic rulers. It is arguable that a state of co belligerency has been on going between Iran and Israel since at least the formation of Hezbollah in the early 1980's. Iran's very public support for the Axis of Resistance fits into Fifth Generation Warfare (see William Lind) and since the Korean War, hardly anyone declares war anymore. (Credit to Iran and Iraq for having done that in their war in the 1980's). What Israel is doing at the moment is engaging in Asymmetric Warfare with Iran - from the other direction. For once in my life I agree with Steve Bannon (whom I generally hold in very low esteem): there was no need for the Americans to strike Iran. The following comes from the magazine Rolling Stone...their biases are well known. After President Donald Trump's decision to strike three Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, administration officials are barely bothering to pretend the unprecedented - and potentially calamitous - attacks were motivated by new intelligence suggesting Iran was on the brink of having nuclear weapons. Just months ago, Trump's Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified to Congress, in her opening statement, that the U.S. intel community "continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon" and had not reauthorized its nuclear weapons program. While Trump recently publicly disputed Gabbard's testimony, according to two administration officials with knowledge of internal deliberations in recent weeks, the president's decision to strike was not driven by any new U.S. intelligence on Iran."There is no intel," says one of the officials, who were granted anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. "Nothing new, that I'm aware of… The president is protecting the United States and our interests, [but] the intelligence assessments have not really changed from what they were before." Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, confirmed Saturday night that American intelligence assessments on Iran have not changed. "I was briefed on the intelligence last week. Iran posed no imminent threat of attack to the United States," he wrote on social media. "Iran was not close to building a deliverable nuclear weapon." |
Originally Posted by CLUTTER
(Post 11909212)
Has there been any more discussion about the 747 freighters from China? Where did they go after they left Iran? Did they take anything with them when they left?
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…………..
China warns Iran after its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz: “The Persian Gulf and surrounding waters are critical trade routes and must remain stable and open.” |
Iran claiming that they are the victim, at the UN yesterday is about as rich as it gets.
For years now the world has been kicking the can down the road on the matter of Iranian sponsored terrorism and doing nothing about it. The US and Israel now finally take action against the playground bully and give them a good hiding and the bully then claims that it is unfair. As Marco Rubio pointed out, the only reason that the US Military has such a large presence in the Middle East is because of the threat that Iran has presented to the region and Europe for so long. |
Nothing new that the aggressor claims to be the victim is it. Iran probably borrowed the script from the Kremlin!
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Originally Posted by Hangarless
(Post 11909248)
p
The US and Israel now finally take action against the playground bully and give them a good hiding and the bully then claims that it is unfair. As Marco Rubio pointed out, the only reason that the US Military has such a large presence in the Middle East is because of the threat that Iran has presented to the region and Europe for so long. sticks and stones, an attack on America results in a response, are they so naïve to think they will not get a similar response. Peace under Americas terms is never going to happen. |
The day when Iran 'gets the malky' is rapidly getting closer.:D
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11909211)
If you are going to protest in a foreign language, get a native speaker to help you spell, FFS.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5738a48ed.jpeg. Lonewolf, perhaps the eastern sides of London have not fallen into your recent travel plans, but I know areas where if I were to properly say "Down with" I might be met with a quizzical look and a raised eyebrow. :) This is in no way a slight against the many hard-working folk we have here who hale from foreign shores and for whom English is a second language. Sadly it is all too often folk who know better and do this on purpose. 😥 Bruv, innit, etc. I'm sure you have heard those annoying utterances. |
Well the response to the, yeah we bombed you, but let’s be friends is in, no surprises there.
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Is there any indication as to what Iranian air assets are now left flyable? Has the IDF taken out any of their civilian passenger/ cargo aircraft?
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Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 11909291)
For a General whose country cannot defend itself against air attack to suggest his side is winning and going to prevail reminds us of the last days of WWII. How did it turn out for the Axis Powers back then and why should we think it to be any different today? |
"How did it turn out for the Axis Powers back then and why should we think it to be any different today?"
But there was NO regime change in Germany - they fought to the bitter end. There was a collapse but it took forever. And not a single German unit changed sides IIRC And it required a million men invading them to achieve even that. Hope you're not suggesting a repeat performance in Iran? |
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