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Lonewolf_50 21st June 2025 21:13


Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever (Post 11907929)
The ONLY reason that Iran has a nuclear program is to provide it the means to make a nuclear weapon. To say that a country swimming in oil and gas needs nuclear power for energy generation is risible. They have long term form in hiding nuclear production facilities and enriching uranium way past any possible peaceful use. As soon as Iran makes a bomb the security calculus in the area immediately and permanently changes. The options to constrain the malevolent reach of Iran's fanatical leadership is dramatically reduced. The senior leadership of Iran routinely call for "death to America and death to Israel" so I would suggest that eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons is in the national security interests of the US.

I firmly believe the right thing to do is to bomb every nuclear or nuclear related site to dust, but then follow up with a relaxation of sanctions contingent on Iran not rebuilding any of its infrastructure. This is a Middle East inflection point. The combination of the destruction of Iran's proxies along with the collapsing Iranian economy gives the US and Israel an unprecedented chance to reorder the security situation in the area. Time for the US to step up.

I think one of their reasons is as a deterrent, but some of what you posted there makes sense.

Steepclimb 21st June 2025 22:42

Turns out that the Iranian regime is a paper Tiger. This fact may not be be lost on the population as a whole.

I for one look forward to Iran becoming a stable outward looking country and probably a dominant economic power in the middle east. Certainly the Iranians I know are an impressive people.

tartare 21st June 2025 23:53

Trump's just announced they've successfully bombed Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.
All jets out of airspace and safe.

RAFEngO74to09 21st June 2025 23:54

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuAXDBLX...jpg&name=small

havoc 22nd June 2025 00:06

guess he is upping his resume for the 6 Nobel Peace prizes he feels he deserves.

Lonewolf_50 22nd June 2025 00:15

Sorry to be a cynical fkuc here, but has he not just baited Iran into trying a fifth column strike on an American nuclear site?
Their "get even" attitude isn't going away any time soon.

EddyCurr 22nd June 2025 00:17


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11908157)
Trump's just announced they've successfully bombed Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan.
All jets out of airspace and safe.

Ahhh ...

So. "Mission Accomplished ! ", right ?

jethro15 22nd June 2025 00:22


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908174)
Sorry to be a cynical fkuc here, but has he not just baited Iran into trying a fifth column strike on an American nuclear site?
Their "get even" attitude isn't going away any time soon.

The next few days are going to be VERY interesting..............

pr00ne 22nd June 2025 00:25


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908174)
Sorry to be a cynical fkuc here, but has he not just baited Iran into trying a fifth column strike on an American nuclear site?
Their "get even" attitude isn't going away any time soon.


Surely this has been a real risk since what, around 1980?

Mal Drop 22nd June 2025 00:27


Originally Posted by Steepclimb (Post 11908128)
I for one look forward to Iran becoming a stable outward looking country and probably a dominant economic power in the middle east. Certainly the Iranians I know are an impressive people.

It was, until the UK and US toppled the government because Anglo-Iranian Oil (now BP) were terrified that their democratically elected leader wanted to nationalise oil.

Operation Ajax (Wikipedia link)

tartare 22nd June 2025 00:34

I assume the recent reports of earthquakes were completely unconnected?
Latest reports saying they heard the blasts in Qom, 87 miles away.

RAFEngO74to09 22nd June 2025 00:40

President Trump will be addressing the Nation at 10pm Eastern

jethro15 22nd June 2025 00:58

Trump - 'Fordo site completely gone'

How does he know at this early stage?
Were the Iranians prepared and made alternative arrangements?
Did the Iranians want to draw the USA into this conflict? (Given Trumps attitude, have they got something else up their sleeve?)
Was Fordo a 'red herring'

So many questions non of us can answer.

Una Due Tfc 22nd June 2025 00:59

If Iran doesn't retaliate against US targets then one would hope that's the end of it as far as the US is concerned. Hopefully thats the enrichment programme reset to day zero.

The Ayotallah and his cronies are scumbags, but as we've seen in various other countries in the Arab world, toppling a scumbag usually makes things worse.

I read somewhere last week that the Shah's son wants to be an interim leader if the current regime is toppled. An awful idea IMO, his father's brutality is why the current bunch of nutbags took over when they did.

RatherBeFlying 22nd June 2025 01:03

The anti missile defenses at Dimona will be put to test.

​​

RAFEngO74to09 22nd June 2025 01:03

Fox News Hannity just got off a call with President Trump - 6 x GBU-57 MOP used on Fordow. 30 x SLCMs from USN ships used against the other 2 sites.

SASless 22nd June 2025 01:10

Well now....B-2's with GBU-57's (probably) and well within the two weeks thing....now the chattering classes will be all up in arms about Trump doing something having ranted and raved about his NOT doing something.

You cannot have it both ways folks...so which is it you support?

Heck...let's make the question simpler yet....exactly what is your solution to Iran getting nuclear weapons?

Only an Idiot would think Iran having Nukes would improve the situation in the Middle East and the World overall.

Why is it the IDF and USAF seem to be the only counter to the despotic Iranian Regime getting Nukes?

Are the Brits and the EU sitting this one out?






Mal Drop 22nd June 2025 01:15


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11908203)
Are the Brits and the EU sitting this one out?

After Afghanistan and Iraq 2003, I very much hope so.

Mal Drop 22nd June 2025 01:18

The thing that I still find staggering, was that this attack was announced on Trump's own social media site, rather than through official channels.

jolihokistix 22nd June 2025 01:19

Concerning Trump's tweet. There was a time when successful meant just that. Successful. And we could trust this meaning.

'Very' successful for me simpy adds doubt, that maybe it wasn't actually successful, or he doesn't really know, but he wants to get the first word in, and that this is political grandstanding.

And I wish he would abandon final usage of the cliche': "Thank you for your attention to this matter". This conventional phrase is used in advance, bureaucratically, when requesting a subordinate to do something that has not yet been properly addressed. It is not appropriate here, again undermining his message content.

Una Due Tfc 22nd June 2025 01:21


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11908203)

Why is it the IDF and USAF seem to be the only counter to the despotic Iranian Regime getting Nukes?

Are the Brits and the EU sitting this one out?

To be fair SAS, Bibi has been saying Iran are months away from having a bomb since 1992 and we're still waiting, your own DNI said there was no evidence they were building a bomb in March. The messaging hasn't been very clear or consistent. If the Ayotallah falls, are we looking at millions of people fleeing to Europe similar to Libra, Syria, Afghanistan etc? Does Iran fragment into various enclaves run by warlords?

jethro15 22nd June 2025 01:21


Originally Posted by SASless (Post 11908203)
Are the Brits and the EU sitting this one out?

If you think that the UK and EU had NO part in this operation....dream on!

Coupez 22nd June 2025 01:34


Originally Posted by tartare (Post 11906572)
They can clearly enrich Uranium. From my limited knowledge - the trickiest bit is not getting a stationary device to explode (a la The Gadget at the Trinity test).
It's miniaturising that device into an operational warhead, which can be successfully mated to a bus attached to the top of a missile. Said warhead and bus needs to be able to withstand the shock of launch, flight and MaxQ/heat of re-entry (up to Mach 20 and 7,000 degrees Celsius), the re-entry vehicle having ablative coatings, and then reliably compress the pit with extreme precision to generate the x-rays and trigger the secondary fusion device.

It seems some have forgotten that the Hiroshima bomb consisted of 64kg of enriched U-235 divided into two lumps, which were driven together in a gun barrel by means of a cordite charge. That's all that's needed to produce a fission (not fusion) explosion. Inefficient, yes; but it killed about 60k people and destroyed a medium sized city. There's no reason to think such a thing wouldn't work as well today as it did in 1945, and if your goal is to create terror and mass casualties, it works perfectly well.
It's not that big and heavy, so there are plenty of ways to deliver it that don't involve missiles - or even aircraft.
I suspect that is why the Powers That Be decided it was too dangerous for the present regime in Iran to possess any quantity of highly enriched U-235...

judyjudy 22nd June 2025 01:41

In fact, the Hiroshima bomb “Little Boy” was so simple in design that it wasn’t even tested.

West Coast 22nd June 2025 01:58


Originally Posted by jethro15 (Post 11908209)
If you think that the UK and EU had NO part in this operation....dream on!

The EU?

albatross 22nd June 2025 02:12

Just saw DJT’s announcement from the White House.
To quote Yosemite Sam…”Great horny toads! The critter went and done it!”

The press conference at the Pentagon. tomorrow at 0800 should be interesting.




BANANASBANANAS 22nd June 2025 02:14


Originally Posted by jethro15 (Post 11908179)
The next few days are going to be VERY interesting..............

Looking back at the way Iran responded to Israeli attacks V1.0 I think it might take a little longer for a 'response' to be tried. US defences will be heightened and Iran may want to keep US 'wondering' for a week or so before trying something. On the other hand, Iran may feel it has to demonstrate its 'strength' to its domestic audience via an immediate response. Interesting times for sure.

Lonewolf_50 22nd June 2025 02:15


Originally Posted by Una Due Tfc (Post 11908208)
To be fair SAS, Bibi has been saying Iran are months away from having a bomb since 1992 and we're still waiting, your own DNI said there was no evidence they were building a bomb in March.

She did, and within the last 48 hours DJT said that she is wrong. For whatever that is worth.

If the Ayotallah falls, are we looking at millions of people fleeing to Europe similar to Libra, Syria, Afghanistan etc? Does Iran fragment into various enclaves run by warlords?
Yes to both seems a valid answer, at this point in time. The IRGC will take over, though. That's my $20 dollar bet in Vegas.

Originally Posted by Coupez (Post 11908212)
It seems some have forgotten that the Hiroshima bomb consisted of 64kg of enriched U-235 divided into two lumps, which were driven together in a gun barrel by means of a cordite charge. That's all that's needed to produce a fission (not fusion) explosion. Inefficient, yes; but it killed about 60k people and destroyed a medium sized city. There's no reason to think such a thing wouldn't work as well today as it did in 1945, and if your goal is to create terror and mass casualties, it works perfectly well.
It's not that big and heavy, so there are plenty of ways to deliver it that don't involve missiles - or even aircraft.
I suspect that is why the Powers That Be decided it was too dangerous for the present regime in Iran to possess any quantity of highly enriched U-235...

Well, when some bomb somewhere blows up, what will the reaction be?

Winemaker 22nd June 2025 02:27


Originally Posted by Una Due Tfc (Post 11908208)
To be fair SAS, Bibi has been saying Iran are months away from having a bomb since 1992 and we're still waiting, your own DNI said there was no evidence they were building a bomb in March. The messaging hasn't been very clear or consistent. If the Ayotallah falls, are we looking at millions of people fleeing to Europe similar to Libra, Syria, Afghanistan etc? Does Iran fragment into various enclaves run by warlords?

Building a gun type Uranium bomb is simple; the American bomb dropped on Nagasaki Hiroshima wasn't even tested as the numbers were so good for a successful detonation there was no need for a test. If the enriched Uranium is available and design has been done it wouldn't take long to make a weapon. An implosion type device would take longer, but so much information is floating around short cuts could be taken.

There was an exercise done years ago in the U.S. with recent physics graduates who were asked to design a Uranium bomb from public materials. It took two of them (might have been three) less than a year to come up with a working design. It's getting the Uranium (and making it small) that's the hard part.

It's considered true that South Africa actually built bombs and tested one in the south Atlantic with Israel but dismantled them. Here's a great site on nuclear weapons with technical and historic information: https://nuclearweaponarchive.org/

Coupez 22nd June 2025 02:37


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908232)
Well, when some bomb somewhere blows up, what will the reaction be?

There are an infinite number of possible scenarios, making the question rather pointless.

I do know that a bomb which was never built because the material was not available cannot explode.

Lonewolf_50 22nd June 2025 02:38


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11908237)
It's considered true that South Africa actually built bombs and tested one in the south Atlantic with Israel but dismantled them.

Weirdly, that's when swordfish began to be unpopular.
Not mercury, then? :confused:

MechEngr 22nd June 2025 02:38

“Our President will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate. He’s weak, and he’s ineffective.”
-Donald Trump 2011 talking about Obama.

Also, Iran is not an Arab country, which is a source of some of the tension. It is majority Muslim, but different sect from Saudi Arabia, making for more tension.

Lonewolf_50 22nd June 2025 02:40


Originally Posted by MechEngr (Post 11908243)
Also, Iran is not an Arab countryg, which is a source of some of the tension. It is majority Muslim, but different sect from Saudi Arabia, making for more tension.

Iran is one of the least religious populations in the Persian Gulf region, as Muslim populations go. (Which doubtless frustrates the Imams to no end)
I'll get you a link later, have a bit going on at present.

Coupez 22nd June 2025 02:41


Originally Posted by Winemaker (Post 11908237)
Building a gun type Uranium bomb is simple; the American bomb dropped on Nagasaki wasn't even tested as the numbers were so good for a successful detonation there was no need for a test.

Did you mean to say Hiroshima? The Nagasaki bomb (Fat Man) was a plutonium implosion fission device. It was tested at the Trinity site. The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) was the U-235 gun type device.

Lonewolf_50 22nd June 2025 02:55


Originally Posted by Coupez (Post 11908246)
Did you mean to say Hiroshima? The Nagasaki bomb (Fat Man) was a plutonium implosion fission device. It was tested at the Trinity site. The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) was the U-235 gun type device.

Just to make everyone feel better, the state of the art has advanced considerably since those two were used.

Winemaker 22nd June 2025 03:04


Originally Posted by Coupez (Post 11908246)
Did you mean to say Hiroshima? The Nagasaki bomb (Fat Man) was a plutonium implosion fission device. It was tested at the Trinity site. The Hiroshima bomb (Little Boy) was the U-235 gun type device.

Of course you're right; brain fade! I do have a 'Fat Man' T-shirt from Los Alamos. Sorry! Correcting it.

SASless 22nd June 2025 03:07

What War ever started for the reasons given the People of the nations engaged in the War?

Fact is the Iranian Regime under the radical Islamic Clerics is bound and determined to obtain/build/buy/borrow nuclear weapons.

It has enriched nuclear materials far beyond any commercial standard and has hidden its nuclear resources behind barriers far in excess of ordinary standards.

That proves beyond the shadow of any reasonable doubt they do not have peaceful intentions, goals, or ambitions.

The Regime has a clearly demonstrable history of fomenting turmoil, funded and offered all manner of assistance to radical Islamic groups and nationalistic terror groups.

All we have to do is look at its actions and those of its proxy nations and groups.

October 7th ring a bell with you?

How about all of the missiles, rockets, drones, and other attacks upon Israel, international shipping, and other innocent persons?

Far too many talk absolutely stupid when they attempt to mitigate or minimize the evil the Iranian Regime poses to World Peace and seeks to ignore the harm it has done by its actions.

Why is it the rest of the World turns to the United States and Israel to counter the schemes and mischief of Iran and cannot bring itself to see the situation as it really is rather than some bogus depiction of what Iran really stands for and the threat it poses?

The British Aircraft Carrier is two thousand miles away supposedly at anchor a hundred miles offshore (which of course makes no sense whatsoever and the "at anchor" thing is just yet more media misinformation). Truth is the Royal Navy is too far from the operational area to be any kind of assistance to the prosecution of a military solution to this problem.

Conducting a Dhobie Day that far away from the combat action does no good whatsoever.

That one of the assigned F-35's fetches up at a civilian airfield and cannot be repaired by assigned Squadron Maintainers does not speak well of Royal Navy capabilities does it?

As is said in Texas....some folks are all Hat and no Cattle!

If the current radical Iranian government falls perhaps millions of Iranian Citizens that fled the vile regime that took control in 1979 might upon its fall begin to return home and assist in making Iran a peaceful nation state that seeks to improve the lot of its people and swear off violence and fomenting hate and discontent in the Middle East and around the World.

Admit it....one can see a glass as being half full or half empty....either way until something changes in the level of liquid in the glass...both are right. Only time and events determine which one is right.

But hey...ya'll just keep looking at the shady side of the street rather than the sunny side. Perhaps some sunshine upon Iran shall bring about some good and help bring some peace to the region.


Winemaker 22nd June 2025 03:19


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908252)
Just to make everyone feel better, the state of the art has advanced considerably since those two were used.

Yeah, 400 lbs (180 kg) with a yield of about 350 kilotons ±. Makes me feel safer....


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2f6117715b.jpg

fdr 22nd June 2025 03:29


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908242)
Weirdly, that's when swordfish began to be unpopular.
Not mercury, then? :confused:

Swordfish became unpopular when you weren't permitted to smoke a pipe on board, along with the embarrassment of being overtaken by seagulls loaded with sardines. Like Hueys though, teaching AAA guys to give lead to the target let a lot of string bags get through to their targets.

Coupez 22nd June 2025 03:29


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11908252)
Just to make everyone feel better, the state of the art has advanced considerably since those two were used.

Yes, the state of the art of organized mass murder has advanced considerably since the days of the phalanx and gladius.

That didn't save all those Tutsis who were killed by all those Hutus in 1994 - with machetes.

That didn't save all those Chinese who were killed by Japanese in the late 1930's - with bayonets.

Don't forget that one of the most effective killing machines of all time was the good ol' Brown Bess musket.

So if it's easier and quicker for a bunch of homicidal maniacs (oops, I meant to say a misunderstood "mostly peaceful" Middle Eastern regime, with "issues") to recreate WWII nuclear bombs than, erm, "proper" ones - well, it doesn't make ME feel any better...


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