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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 11910814)
There's a comment from a mining engineer on underground blasting. The kinetic impact would be significant as well as the blast. Much depends on the proximity of the detonations to the facilities.
If no significant damage, the regime may decide to pretend obliteration and let Trump declare victory;) So any need for further action will be quickly obvious. |
Institute for Science and Int'l Security, David Albright and Spencer Faragasso, June 25 (excerpt published by WSJ online). Assessment includes some discussion of U.S. strikes.
https://isis-online.org/isis-reports...ear-facilities |
You would have thought they would be carrying out their work in some incongruous downtown warehouses scattered around multiple facilities, whist using the Mountain as a decoy.
Meanwhile motor mouth just cannot be trusted, he has possibly revealed Israeli secrets again about Israeli agent's operating in Iran at the nuclear facility. Some exerts from the article D9nald Trump appears to have blurted out top-secret intelligence on allied operations in enemy territory – again. Reinforcing the reputation of his entire administration as being incontinent with secrets, he twice seemed to suggest at the Nato summit in the Hague that Israel had agents on the ground in Iran assessing the damage done by America’s bombardment of Fordow and other nuclear facilities. Smarting from intelligence assessments leaked to the New York Times and CNN that cast doubt on his claim to have “obliterated” the nuclear programme with bunker-busting bombs and Tomahawk missiles, Trump used the most sensitive work of an allied nation to bolster his claims. The president then went on to reveal what is likely to be either a lie or secret information somehow gleaned by agents from Iran. Tehran has insisted that the attacks on Fordow failed. Trump said: “They went down, Iran went down to the site afterwards. They said it’s so devastated and they settled when they saw what we did to it… Two Iranians went down to see it and they called back and they said, ‘This place is gone’.” Only secret agents working inside the Iranian government would have this kind of detail – that two people did an on-the-ground survey. “It was hit brutally, and it knocked it out. The original word that I use, I guess it got us in trouble because it’s a strong word. It was obliteration. And you’ll see that. And it’s going to come out. Israel is doing a report on it now. I understand… “You know, they have guys that go in there after the hit,” said the president of the United States – risking the lives of any agents who might be on the ground or in the Iranian inner circle. He did so, he insisted, not to prove that he was right, but “I don’t want it for me. I want it for the pilots. I want it for the military. They did such a good job”. |
Further to the "Post-Attack Assessment [etc]" published by the ISIS - the Institute for Science and International Security, in its Weekend Edition just a few days ago The Wall Street Journal published an interview (the "Weekend Interview") with the Institute's president, David Albright. (WSJ, June 21-22, 2025). The interview was conducted (as many such Weekend Interviews have been conducted) by WSJ Contributor Tunku Varadarajan, who is a Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and also affiliated with the NYU Law School.
David Albright has devoted a career to tracking nuclear weapons and anti-proliferation efforts (and, please note, this cursory description of his credentials as a source in this matter is not meant other than for convenience of the reader). Even though the interview was conducted and its written output published prior to the United States armed forces' strikes against Irani nuclear sites, it is absolutely worth the time to read (and to locate first, given paywall, for non-subscribers). Incidentally, on another thread over in the realm of Accidents and Close Calls, some comments bounced back, forth and around about reliability of news outlet articles and their - often times questionable - sources. I would suggest the source for this Weekend Interview on this matter is rather similar to Coca-Cola . . . . . the real thing. |
The British, Germans, and Japanese showed how quickly you can switch from centralized to distributed manufacturing in WWII. I suspect this process was begun within a day of Israel’s first strike and completed before the B-2’s came over. Iran’s new slogan: A centrifuge in every kitchen.
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11910893)
Meanwhile motor mouth just cannot be trusted, he has possibly revealed Israeli secrets again about Israeli agent's operating in Iran at the nuclear facility. Some exerts from the article |
Originally Posted by NutLoose
(Post 11910893)
Meanwhile motor mouth just cannot be trusted, he has possibly revealed Israeli secrets again about Israeli agent's operating in Iran at the nuclear facility. Some exerts from the article
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Two agents? Or were Iranian internal communications simply intercepted?
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I'd guess the almost whole of Iran is an open book to the Israelis. Sleeping sensors put in years ago, agents the same, some people bought,sting operations like the pagers. They've been doing it for years all the way back to STUXNET. They make the Chinese look like rank amateurs.
The Ayatollah KNOWS they're reading all his mail, know exactly where he is and possibly hearing every word he utters |
Selected bits from an online article, Forbes, June 26:
25 June 1996 – Nineteen Americans were killed at a US base near Dhahran and another 105 suffered serious injuries from a truck bomb estimated at 5,000 pounds at the Khobar Towers apartment complex adjacent to King Abdul Aziz Air Base in Saudi Arabia. About 5,000 US troops served in Saudi Arabia, along with French and British whose aircraft were flying 100 missions per day over southern Iraq from Saudi Arabia to enforce the no-fly zone. Later reports said that Osama bin Laden bankrolled the bombing of the US base and that Hezbollah carried out the attack, with support from Iran. In 2000 it was reported that the Bin Laden family firm was awarded the contract to rebuild the Khobar Towers. More info in the spoiler:
Spoiler
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A very good prophetic read.
Trump's latest stunt risks dragging the UK into warAfter decades of military campaigns framed as democracy-building, you’d think we would have learned: You can’t build democracy from bomber aircraft at 30,000 feet. And yet, here we are again. From Afghanistan to Iraq, Libya to now Iran, the pattern is depressingly familiar: Drop explosives, declare ‘mission accomplished’, then leave a political vacuum filled by chaos, extremism, or civil war. Oh – and turn away the refugees fleeing the devastation we helped create. This isn’t hindsight. It’s a loop we’ve been stuck in for a generation. Western intervention – even when dressed up as liberation – often destroys more than it stabilises. And now, with the latest US-led airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, we’re watching the same story unfold again. Donald Trump wants you to believe Operation Midnight Hammer was a show of strength. The precision. The stealth bombers. The bunker-busters. All very impressive – if you’re watching from a safe distance. But tactical success isn’t the same as strategic stability. The strikes may have damaged Iran’s infrastructure (although a leaked Pentagon report suggests to a lesser degree than Trump declared) but they’ve done nothing to resolve the deep regional grievances, power struggles, and factional violence that will only grow in the aftermath. And what’s the plan for the days after? As usual, I can’t see that there is one. I’m imagining it will go something like this: The White House declares victory. Iran’s nuclear scientists go underground. Its proxies retaliate in Yemen and Syria. And another generation of angry, disenfranchised civilians watches Western missiles fall with impunity. We know what happens next. We’ve lived it. And what about the UK? We’re being pulled in again – expected to nod along, lend diplomatic cover, open our military bases, share intelligence, and defend the moral logic of an operation we didn’t start, can’t control, and shouldn’t be part of. What’s in it for us? Security? Stability? We’ve heard that before. In truth, there’s little British interest served by this escalation. And yet here comes the familiar choreography: Downing Street treads carefully to protect the ‘special relationship’, while British voters rightly grow ever more sceptical of these endless entanglements. We’ve learned – or should have – that foreign policy done at the whim of Washington rarely ends well. Especially not when it’s being shaped by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. And let’s talk about Trump’s boasts of the ceasefire – which lasted about as long as an episode of Corrie – between Israel and Iran. He’s calling it a peace breakthrough. But if Trump really has the power to end wars with a simple phone call, why hasn’t he done it for Ukraine? The illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine is as clear-cut a conflict as any in modern history. Meanwhile, Gaza’s health ministry says at least 74 people have died and another 391 have been wounded in the last 24 hours of Israel’s bombardment. Instead, we seem doomed to double down on the mistakes of the past. Desperate to convince ourselves that this time is different, that we are not mistaking military might for moral clarity. But fear is overruling judgment again. Not just for those killed in airstrikes or families displaced, but for the thousands who flee only to be turned away at the borders of the countries that helped destroy their homes. Britain isn’t just complicit in these wars. Too often, we’re complicit in abandoning their victims. When will we learn? We’ve tried to bomb our way to democracy. It doesn’t work – because it can’t work. What we need now is not more firepower, but a foreign policy grounded in restraint, diplomacy, and realism. That means saying no when we need to. That means remembering the lessons of the last 20 years. And that means refusing to be dragged into another war we have no business being part of – especially one made in Washington, and outsourced to us. Trump's latest stunt risks dragging the UK into war |
Nutty, that looks like a bit of UK navel gazing, might that be a better fit in the UK politics thread?
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Originally Posted by Recc
(Post 11910391)
Let's assume (for the sake of argument) that US intel can track every vehicle movement in Iran with 100% accuracy. Now consider that the Iranians move all of their 400kg of HEU in 1 vehicle movement and the US know exactly which day this will occur. They observe 50 vehicle movements at the Fordow facility on that day and each of these vehicles moves to a logistics hub/ warehouse. There are a further 50 vehicle movements from each of these hubs each going to a final location. That is now 2500 possible locations for your HEU on day 1! Now consider that 50% of these secondary movements are also to hubs, and that vehicle movements follow the same pattern the next day. By the end of day 2, you have ~63k possible locations and by day 3 you are close to 1M. If you target trucks as they leave the facility, that might be doable with an airstrike. Otherwise, you will need additional sources of intelligence.
In reality, the HEU will be widely dispersed with multiple dummy containers and a very few people who know which is which. Logistically it is much easier to store HEU out of the reach of US and Israeli weapons than it is to do the same with a processing facility. I have no doubt that Israeli intelligence capabilities in Iran are exceptionally good but I very much doubt that they (or the US) have the capability to target Iranian HEU inventory with airpower alone. Edit: This should not be a surprise to anybody who has posted a letter. Imagine claiming that because you saw me post a letter, and you could log movements of every postal truck, that you would be able to tell who I had sent it to without seeing the envelope! But if - the road/transport network has some 24x365 localisers on it that can detect a certain amount of radiological signatures, then that allows specific vehicles to be associated with the corresponding cargo. If those localisers are suitably placed on the transport network then one could keep the location-tracking live and vehicle-specific to at least city-level or tween-city level. Also it would tend to weed out quite a lot of decoy transport activity. And if - the electrical grid is similarly 24x365 monitored for all main sections then one can detect (and localise) any unusual long term loads, such as would be caused by operating a centrifuge cascade for uranium gas enrichment. But if the uranium is metallic and of the requisite enrichment (~90% minimum*) then the opportunities for electrical signature detection - and requirements for associated large cascade hall facility** become much lesser. Once at the enriched metallic stage just a small machine shop with some glove boxes etc will do in extremis. Far easier to disperse. The Iranian effort would appear to have at a comparable scale to the Korean effort in centrifuge numbers ***. Iran 20,000 vs Korea 12-15,000. From a timing perspective this does appear to have been the last possible moment to intervene whilst still viable to do so. * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Boy ** https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...086281302.html *** https://isis-online.org/isis-reports...ear-facilities |
Briefing by US SecDef and CJCS
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There's concern expressed here that Trump may have blown cover of Mossad operatives in Iran. While there is a pool of dissident Iranians to recruit from and others can be duped, I am beginning to suspect that many phones and routers have been recruited by Mossad. Remember a decade or so it was revealed that the CIA was listening to Angela Merkel's phone. Cyber infiltration capabilities have only increased since.
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying
(Post 11911317)
There's concern expressed here that Trump may have blown cover of Mossad operatives in Iran. While there is a pool of dissident Iranians to recruit from and others can be duped, I am beginning to suspect that many phones and routers have been recruited by Mossad. Remember a decade or so it was revealed that the CIA was listening to Angela Merkel's phone. Cyber infiltration capabilities have only increased since.
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Some interceptor magazine depth analysis,
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/arch...iran-conflict/ "The Israelis were racing to destroy Iranian missiles and launchers before the Iranians launched enough missile salvos to deplete the Israeli interceptor magazine. " Much the same point as I made in #2258, and others have made - it was in Israel/USA's interests to go for early escalation before they got to the bottom of the cupboard. |
The latest (on BBC) is that the Ayatollah claims that the USA didn't gain anything from the strikes. Is this a wise statement to make? Is he trying to taunt the USA into trying again?
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Do you think that his message was intended for his home audience? I do.
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Oh, absolutely as did his message of having defeated Israel. Nevertheless........
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Originally Posted by T28B
(Post 11910519)
As neither mod nor admin
An old friend of mine, now deceased, used to refer to it as the "Cable Noise Network." From our correspondent in Doha. The base being referred to is Al Udeid. |
Originally Posted by Avman
(Post 11911379)
The latest (on BBC) is that the Ayatollah claims that the USA didn't gain anything from the strikes. Is this a wise statement to make? Is he trying to taunt the USA into trying again?
Rafael Grossi, head of the United Nations’ own nuclear watchdog, put the final nail in the coffin of this media myth. “I think the Iranian nuclear program has been set back significantly, significantly," he said bluntly. Speaking to Fox News on Tuesday, Grossi elaborated, saying there was “one Iran — before June 13, nuclear Iran — and one now." The difference, he said, was “night and day.” The UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) didn’t just rely on vague assessments or anonymous sources. They confirmed “extensive damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities.” The strikes were so effective that they caused a localized radioactive and chemical release inside the affected facilities. |
Originally Posted by tdracer
(Post 11911413)
Do you believe the UN?
https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/204679/4679/ "November 9, 2011 at 10:54 amI would disagree that a gun-type system is substantially heavier than a modern implosion design, and certainly that it would be so heavy as to require ground delivery. The American W-33 was a gun-assembly uranium bomb with 5-10 kt pure fission yield, weighing ~100kg and fitting in a 20cm diameter case. This would trivially fit on any of Iran’s strategic missiles. The W-33 seems to have been a rather sophisticated double-gun design, but the TX-8 family (basically evolved Little Boys) included the ~360kg W-9 and the ~720kg Mk-10, both under 30cm diameter. South Africa’s bombs came in at ~1000kg and 60cm diameter; given the choice of aircraft delivery there was no real incentive to try for anything smaller. Building gun-assembly bombs that can fit in Iranian missiles is a straightforward technical exercise, and I would be surprised if the legacy of Iran’s pre-2004 program did not include a contingency plan for such. The major difference between gun-assembly and implosion assembly is that a gun-assembly bomb requires 50+ kg of HEU, compared to ~15 kg for an implosion bomb. Iran does not have vast quantities of HEU; if some technical inability to produce implosion devices forces them to resort to gun-assembly missile warheads, they will probably be delayed six months to a year in producing enough HEU for their first weapon and their arsenal from that point forward will be diminished by two-thirds." |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11911384)
Do you think that his message was intended for his home audience? I do.
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Perhaps some air sampling downwind of the target site might be worthwhile?
Another UK capability holiday, no doubt? The FSTA bidders were somewhat askance when they were briefed about air sampling! |
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
(Post 11911384)
Do you think that his message was intended for his home audience? I do.
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With respect I think many conservatives and moderates that steer right are concerned about Gaza especially children/civilians. Not just the left. Having said that maybe we need to respect Senior Pilot's cool down of the Israel/Palestine discussion.
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Originally Posted by West Coast
(Post 11911392)
The worst thing ever to happen to civility in politics was the advent of the 24 hour news cycle which gave rise to the likes of CNN, MSNBC and FOX here in the US. Media bias and accuracy was escalated to a new level with all that air time to fill.
I thought the Generals response was most apt given what he must have been thinking - "Whaaaat? Give you all the sources of our Intel???!!!! Are you nuts????" which seemed to be what was being asked. He didn't actually say that in so many words but I bet that's what he wanted to say! That said, the advent of 24 hour TV was a boon to the military. Made Guard Duty on the Main Gate in the wee small hours pass much more quickly!!! Happy daze when that happened!!!! :ok: |
A point well made by Hegseth at the post-strike Press Brief to one of the people who asked a question when he basically accused her of being a troublemaker. |
Video..... :confused:
Q: You said China is now allowed to keep buying oil from Iran. Does this mean you’re backing off your maximum pressure campaign? Trump: "No. They just had a war. The war was fought. They fought it bravely.... They're going to need money to put that country back into shape.” |
VideoBREAKING: Bomb destroys a residential apartment in Tehran.
Three killed: two senior officers in the IRGC and a nuclear scientist. No one has claimed responsibility...... |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 11911870)
VideoBREAKING: Bomb destroys a residential apartment in Tehran.
Three killed: two senior officers in the IRGC and a nuclear scientist. No one has claimed responsibility...... |
Back to asymmetry?
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No one has claimed responsibility yet some are already trying to pin it on Israel without any evidence whatsoever.|
Ya'll might as well be that CNN Reporter who ran with the Leaked Intel Report (same Reporter that ran with other false stories) . What say you wait for someone to provide some evidence first. Reposting X posts does not necessarily equate to "evidence". Ever stop to think that perhaps there could be a domestic source behind the attack that emanates from the realization that the current Regime is very vulnerable and could be caused by the latest round of oppressive arrests and executions by the Iranian Internal Security Forces? Just to inform those who refuse to accept how utterly outclassed the Iranian government and military has become due to their failed focus upon what it takes to participate in ones defense in modern times you might take note of what the Head of the IDF has to say. https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rk11qv2tvge Sidenote: Perhaps the United States is showing its gratitude to China in its instructing the Iranians not to attempt to close the Hormuz Straits and thus rewarding China for doing the World's economies (including their own) a huge favor by taking that stand against their erstwhile ally Iran. The fact that Russia and China both took actions to not support Iran should not be overlooked. |
As neither mod nor admin:
The list of suspects is rather short. You might say that the media are "rounding up the usual suspects" narratively. The best exercise these days seems to be leaping to conclusions, here in the TwitterXFarcebookInstaspamYourube age. (See the "Must have raised the flaps rather than the gear" line for the Air India 171 crash that was smeared all over social media) |
Originally Posted by SASless
(Post 11911930)
The fact that Russia and China both took actions to not support Iran should not be overlooked.
It is my opinion that Trump and Xi will have spoken and agreed ahead of the B-2 hits.Likely with Putin also. China's economy cannot function properly if trade between them and the US is interrupted as the entire Chinese economy is a cash flow economy which is based almost entirely on selling consumer goods to the western world . I am also of the opinion that Trump will now be putting huge pressure on Putin to settle now that he has managed to put Iran in a box so to speak. |
SASless, you make an interesting point.
Perhaps the United States is showing its gratitude to China in its instructing the Iranians not to attempt to close the Hormuz Straits and thus rewarding China for doing the World's economies (including their own) a huge favor by taking that stand against their erstwhile ally Iran. The fact that Russia and China both took actions to not support Iran should not be overlooked. China takes care of Number 1 first. :) (Of course they do). |
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