Erm, they're stealth bombers.
They have the radar signature of a small bird. So a primary return radar won't pick them up at all.
They don't use their transponders while on a mission - so there is no squawk code on an air traffic control radar and therefore nothing to register on secondary return radar.
They don't file flight plans. They use pre-approved classified flight corridors, or military air traffic control.
They descend to refuel and when they do all you would see is the primary and/or secondary return of a tanker and it's transponder code if it chooses to squawk.
I believe the B2s cruise at around FL50 - about 10k feet above the highest civilian airliner traffic. So no diversion needed.
The only person outside the military and decision makers who saw what was going on, was the dude in Warsaw Missouri, who happened to see the package heading East, when everyone else was following the feint West.
But no-one noticed what he'd said at the time...

During GW1 there were high level discussions in the Whitehouse as to who would announce the US were going in, they were scuppered in their efforts by an airman that issued NOTAMS informing the world of the impending large scale USAF flights to Saudi.

How odd. I thought the Israelis were just limbering up, preparing for the long haul. Surely they haven't achieved their war aims already?

Israel is saying they have achieved all of their objectives. From the Times of Israel :

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...any-violation/

I am waking up to Trump's cease fire "coup" and asking myself if the Iranian missile strike on Qatar was essentially theatre rather than a serious attempt to inflict damage on US forces.

Perhaps Trump had agreed the basis of the cease fire with Tehran and Jerusalem beforehand but recognised that Iran needed to show it retaliated so "invited" them to lob six missiles at preadvised targets so that Qatar and USA could shoot them down.

He loves theatre, he loves being the centre of attention, and he'll turn up at the NATO summit like a cat with two tails. Very clever if that is what he has done.

That's good. Anyone taking bets as to how long it'll be before Bibi says "Iran is only n weeks away from having WMD"?

Law of diminishing returns.

The IAF got all their HVA targets on day one using surprise - especially the people, military leadership and nuclear scientists. Since then they've been destroying the factories and ammunition dumps for centrifuges, missile fuel etc etc. But by this stage Iran will have dispersed most of what’s left and the IAF will be flying long missions to pound rubble.

In the meantime they got whag they really wanted, the USA to bomb the deep buried factories. Whether that worked or not is a moot point which will only be discovered if and when they allow inspection - which will depend on what demands Trump makes now the ceasefire is in place in order to keep it place.

The problem for Israel was they have been exhausting their stock of David’s Sling and Arrow missiles and an increasing number of Iranian IRBM have been getting through, and they seem to have plenty left - so they need time to build and restock (to a far higher level till next time).

As far the Iranian nuclear programme it seems they have preserved their stock of HEU and either still have, or will shortly have, restored their ability to further unhandled it to weapons grade - unless, behind the scenes, the USA is making enough threats to make them agree to dismantle the programme.

The talking head consensus, however, is that the Lat 12 days will have further convinced the leadership they need their own nuclear weapons as fast as possible and, if anything, they will accelerate production as fast as possible.

If there is further angle to this I would point to the reactions of Russia and China.

The Russian connection has proved a disaster for Iran. Their Russian SAM have proved totally ineffective and the promised, and paid for, SU-57s have failed to appear as Russian production is concentrating on their own forces and Ukraine.

Meanwhile China is interested in keeping the Gulf of Hormuz open and access to their supply of Iranian oil - and Iran will have been watching the success of the Chinese J-10C and PL-10E against modern western weapons. I can see interest in China in having a greater presence in the area, even a port in Iran, and selling modern weapons to Iran in exchange for oil, and in Iran seeing them as a far more powerful partner than the fickle Putin.

Oh no, tell me it’s not true, everyone on here said I was wrong.

Possibly hardliners in the Iranian military launched it?


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn7ze4vmk2pt

Seems the cease fire didn't last that long.

The Hundred Years War lasted a hundred and sixteen years.

We can reasonably expect the Twelve Days War to last at least a hundred and twelve days. :E

Or maybe not.

Iran stated last night they haven’t agreed to a ceasefire - just to stop firing if Israel stops attacking them. A technical point perhaps _- but it means they can’t be accused of breaking a ceasefire they haven’t signed.

Meanwhile Trump continues to be in his own fantasy land…..



https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....12571cda3f.png

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....760f45ad6e.png

Doesn’t sound like Iran will be willing to talk about their nuclear programme, or much else.

BBC:

Strangely enough, I tend to believe the Iranian version of the facts more than anything Trump puts out, look at India and Pakistan sorting out internally their differences and Trump claiming he did it.

Three days ago showing the military build up of US aircraft.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5dd532239.jpeg


https://airlive.net/military/2025/06...n-middle-east/

It speaks volumes that Iranian state media is probably more truthful than Trump and his Twitter account.

Considering the amount of disruption it caused, particularly with scheduled passenger flights, I find it hard to believe. The financial cost alone is vast, especially to Qatar.

It occurs to me that the Israeli Air Force must be burning through the hours on its combat aircraft.

Wow
 

A US President just said live on air that he’s not happy with Israel. That’s one for the history books.

BV

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....59a1616548.png

Will be interesting to see whether and how far Russia's domestic production of Shahed-derived drones is impacted, eg as a result of possible continued reliance on some Iranian components...

i believe it was the engines Iran was providing.

You're right, it cost a lot to business, and aviation in particular but the cost would have been far greater to the region, including Qatar if Trump hadn't managed to defuse it. Anyway it wasn't Trump's money so I don't imagine that would have bothered him. He might have made a financial killing anyway with the sharp moves in the oil price.

Reading BBC News just now he doesn't appear best pleased with either Israel or Iran this morning. It sounds as though Israel in particular has narked him, which I for one find surprising.

ISW: https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...vening-edition

Iranian Regime Survival

There appear to be internal fissures within the Iranian regime over how to respond to the conflict with the United States and Israel.

Opposition media reported on June 21 that former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly met with senior clerics in Qom in recent days to persuade them to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to concede to key US and Israeli demands, including the suspension of uranium enrichment. The clerics included Mousa Shobeyri, Hossein Vahid Khorasani, and Nasser Makarem Shirazi. Rouhani framed the meetings as an effort to “save” the Islamic Republic. It is unclear how the clerics responded to Rouhani’s requests.

IRGC-affiliated media claimed on June 19 that a “few suspicious and disreputable” individuals within the regime were trying to convince clerics in Qom to push for a compromise with Israel. Rouhani, as well as Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have reportedly unsuccessfully tried to contact Khamenei in recent days to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States. Ali Larijani’s reported support for negotiations is notable given that he made threats to US forces in the region in a post on X on June 23.

Unspecified Iranian leaders have reportedly developed a contingency plan to govern Iran without Khamenei in the event that Khamenei is killed or informally sidelined.

The individuals developing this plan have agreed that a leadership committee would functionally replace Khamenei and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel. The individuals have considered Rouhani for a “key role” in the leadership committee. Some military officials involved in the plan have engaged Gulf countries to try to gain support for such political change in Iran.

It is very notable that senior Iranian military, political, and religious leaders are discussing a potential post-Khamenei leadership structure in Iran. Reuters reported on June 23 that there have been increased efforts to appoint a successor for Khamenei, citing five insiders with knowledge of the discussions. These efforts suggest that senior officials are highly concerned about the stability of the regime and seek to ensure regime survival in the event that Khamenei is killed or removed.

Of note Trump AF1 and back-up SAM47 flights have reverted back to a security measure that was introduced during March 2020 of empty callsign. Radio callsign takes priority and they are still AF1 and SAM47 on ATC.
After the Iranian IRGC's Quds Force commander Soleimani was killed on Trump's orders during 2020 security was tightened. Plots to assassinate Bolton and Pompeo were uncovered. Later plots were uncovered to assassinate Trump. Trump is currently on his way to the NATO summit. AF1 not displaying on flight trackers as "AF1" was also seen during Biden's term from 2021. Interesting to see if the callsign display changes to AF1 and SAM47 as they head into Europe as is sometimes the case.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/trump-warn...160447543.html

AF1 747 and SAM47 757 heading to NATO summit.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b7ecebcc95.jpg

Once again, some of you are trying again to turn this into another US Politics Hamsterwheel.
Please don't.
I've moved that bundle of posts to where they belong.

Slowly starting to get it !
Nobody pays a blind bit of notice.

Not Zelenski, not Putin and especially Netanyahu !!

What I find ironic is one simple day ago myself and Mr Mac were going against the flow and being berated for saying it isn’t over and one of the problems was Trump and now it appears that view prevails amongst you all..

Hopefully Iran and Israel can settle their differences and come to a peaceful solution free from third party influences.

.

POTUS on Air Force One on the way to the NATO Summit: "The ceasefire is VERY MUCH IN EFFECT — and I think we're going to keep it there for a long time." Audio clip >

From the BBC:

Interestingly Iran is half an hour ahead of most of the ME possibly leading to: "We ceased fire and you've still been shooting at us the last half hour!"

I'd rather hope that a ceasefire would be based on UTC.

What we have is "really, really reduced fire" rather than a cease fire.
They would say that, wouldn't they?

Let's check back in 48 hours and see if they have actually ceased fire.



Turning into a real Victorian Farce !
Anyone surprised ??

Yet still 700 years behind the west.

ORAC's post re the apparent "splintering" of the upper echelons of the Iranian Government concerning strategy raises a very important issue.

I watched a long interview of some long time CIA Analysts who spent their full career in the Iran Unit and one of the "Red Flags" they said to look for that might foreshadow either a revolt by the Iranian People or a takeover of the government by moderates would be what they described as "splintering" meaning higher ups who abandon, flee, challenge, or in a major way fall out with the Ayatollahs and their closest allies. They did not say what they thought "would" happen but merely opined that certain events were indicators of "possible" events.

Also, if one looks at how this "12 Day War" played out it very much suggests the IDF had some inside help as they had very detailed information re many people, things, and decisions.

Iran has been shown clearly far outclassed by the IDF, their Nuclear Program and ambitions have certainly been degraded if not destroyed, their proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis) have all been decimated by the IDF and cannot be trusted to act on behalf of Iran anymore, and they did not find any real support from their erstwhile allies, China made it very clear any action re the Hormuz Straits was not in the best interests of Iran, and the Ayatollah did a runner to an underground hide out which suggests he fully understands what he risks by this continued intransigence. As there was opposition to his hardline stance (as noted by ORAC's post) he understands his vulnerability from domestic sources.

Today is a brighter day all round for Iran and Israel, the Middle East, and the World in general.

How likely is it that any "splintering" would lead to a more moderate replacement government.

Sure it's more likely to be a more extreme, hard line government. They have all the levers of power - the law has already been changed to make it easier to crack down on “infiltrators and spies”

Again, from the BBC

As I suggested above, let's take another look in 48 hours, and see if the sun still shines, or if the clouds have rolled in again.
(Good to see you back).

Interesting take on the BBC tonight regarding Israel's decision to cease operations against Iran, suggesting that it may in part have been a consequence of the significant economic cost it was bearing from businesses and schools being shuttered, also hospitals only allowing emergency admissions etc. Can they only sustain a couple of weeks of operations before they have to pause to give their country chance to recover?