And in the meantime, Russia is telling the US not to get involved or else…


and Trump true to form has given it Two Weeks, just as he has been giving Russia over Ukraine for the last few months, its rather like Russias we will nuke you threat's, after repeating it so many times it just becomes background noise and the credibility is gone.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle...ys-2025-06-19/

Yes, I concur.

This got me from the Reuters news thread.

• White House says Trump's top priority is preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapon
• Iran could produce nuclear weapon in just weeks, White House claims
• Critics question Trump's two-week deadline

So, if it’s just weeks away, why give them two more to perfect / complete it.?

Another fly in the ointment, Russia says they have 200 staff building the reactors in Iran.
Strange for Putin to be worried about 200 Russians having sent 1,000,000 to their deaths of late.

Russia is already looking after the Iranian nuclear program. They supply the fuel for the Bushehr reactor and take it away when it's finished with which is not surprising considering it's a Russian design.

Iranian foreign minister:

”There is no room for negotiation with the USA until Israeli aggression ends”.

He has also stated that the Iranian missile programme is non-negotiable.

I can in a way understand Irans response, after all they are not exactly surrounded by friendly countries.

Neither are Israel....

Put a framework to the arguments.

https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15942.doc.htm

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty...uclear_Weapons

One might also look back to the six or seven UN Resolutions re Iran's Nuclear and Missile programs and the history of how it all played out in the many debates at the UN.

More for the framework
 

On 18 September 2009, the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency called on Israel to open its nuclear facilities to IAEA inspection and adhere to the non-proliferation treaty as part of a resolution on "Israeli nuclear capabilities", which passed by a narrow margin of 49–45 with 16 abstentions. The chief Israeli delegate stated that "Israel will not co-operate in any matter with this resolution."[93] However, similar resolutions were defeated in 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2015.[94][95] As with Pakistan, the NSG Guidelines currently rule out nuclear exports by all major suppliers to Israel.

For the record, I’d prefer it if Iran didn’t have nukes. I’d prefer it if many of the current holders didn’t have them and ultimately if nobody had them (but I’m a realist).

The problem is that it’s very hard to preach about it when the other belligerent (our friend) won’t be honest about theirs.

A lot of this enmity could go away if Israel just said “fair enough, we have them, come take a look”.

BV

Or arrange a small demo at Fordo. Convincing.

No, langleybaston, that's a terrible idea. (Were you joking?)
As I've said before, I am confident that Iran will join the nuclear club eventually. What the Israelis are doing currently will doubtless be a setback.
If the Ayatollah's fall, who takes over? Most likely the IRGC. I expect them to continue to pursue that aim.
If Pakistan has them, and they do, Iran having them isn't that much of a change to security in that region.

12 x F-22A have left RAF Lakenheath, UK for the CENTCOM AOR - they will be based in Jordan.

I am unsure of the significance of this, but my estimate is that IRGC will have some freedom of action.
I expect some fifth column action in Jordan in and around those air bases that RAFEngO74to09's post refers to.

I think every country in the world should have one nuclear weapon

They can be expensive to store and maintain, so some nations won't want the bother. Others won't mind.

The worrying thing, Lonewolf, is that Iran have made it abundantly clear for quite some time that they want to wipe Israel off the face of the earth. For a long time the general consensus was that if there would ever be a nuclear conflict it would be between Pakistan and India. My opinion is that would change if Iran become a nuclear power. They could well be the first to use it.....against Israel.

BRUpax, a problem with them doing that is that launching a nuke (or a number of them, Israel has ballistic missile defenses) at the Holy Land is in direct opposition to their Axis of Resistance posture.
Such a strike would render Israel (or as they see it, the rightful homeland of the Palestinian Muslims) - uninhabitable, at least for the near term.
The land would be poisoned, rather than restored to the Palestinians.
Having the weapon would be (1) a status symbol and (2) a possible deterrent to attacks on or invasion of Iran.
On the other hand, maybe they'd get to a point where they embrace the Götterdämmerung...but I never saw the Mullahs as suicidal.

A logical conclusion LW. Let us hope it is correct.

Did Iran's leadership fail to understand the situation leading up to and immediately after the October 7th attack on Israel and make some very bad decisions as a result?

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/middl.../how-iran-lost

How deep is it? First guesses were about 100 meters. Then figures like '500 meters' were floated around. And now this 800m "for the most sensitive things". Ok, nobody knows. And nobody knows how deep can one or several MOPs reach, either.

I'm curious, how hot is it down there? The average geothermal gradient is 3 K/100 m below the surface in Europe (Wikipedia). Therefore about ISA+24 at 800 meters. Could be different under this mountain, a geologist would know. And you have a big plant with hundreds centrifuges, each requiring tens of kW of electricity. Where goes all this heat? And where does all the electricity come from? Maybe it's easier to target the nearest powerplant and/or the numerous huge exhaust stacks?

IMO it can't be this deep and this big at the same time...

I don't think temperature increase with depth it's as straight forward as you state; there can be a negative temperature gradient. From Wikipedia:

Forgive me if I'm talking out of my proverbial but I understand that as they have enriched to a level beyond that required for power generation maybe they're running the centrifuges from a small underground reactor?

Edit: No, how would they cool such a reactor?

If they did have a reactor it's much easier to produce Pu-239 than separate U-235 from U-238.

Good point, I warned I was talking out of my proverbial!

Well they are Shiite fundamentalists who believe the 12th Imam is here, hidden, and the destruction of Israel is the signal for his return - and they did build the countdown clock in Palestine Square…..

Everything you say makes sense - if you think logically! When you are driven by religious ideology though, logic isn't always on display.

Apart from logic,, they have no real capabilities to make nuclear attack..
Especially successfull one.
Logic is direct cause of education and learning.
Countries where religion is so important- have no chance to educate their own people at required level because they simply do not courage question why? How?

Iran only could do:
1.Lost a lot of their people, capital and infrastructure
2.Make a lot of money to their enemies- USA,KSA, Israel, although you may bet that other arabs, chinese/ japanse will lip honey too...
3. Risk of breakdiwn of Iran ( with civil war ) is real threat- that will rise with every further rocket to Israel/ USA interests...
4. Make arab countries happy

Buckle up, the big boys are on the move

something took off whitman, immediately refueled in flight from 4 tanker, so have a full bomb load. Another flight of 4 tankers are tracking west with the flight of unknown planes

You can go to pretty much what ever twitter source you want

They could have moved unseen if they had wanted.

Instead of trying to put a bomb into the centre of the tunnel complex, where the centrifuges etc are.
Surely it would be easier to destroy the area just on inner side of the entrance doors?

The overpressure inside would render anyone inside useless or dead and the collapse would seal the tunnel (s) for a very long time.
Entombing the scientists as well.
The Iranians won't be able to get any heavy equipment into the area as the Israelis have air dominance and they could take out electrical infrastructure etc making the whole area a slow creeping morgue.

Iran
 

I would say the Iranian nuclear scientists are some of the most brave (foolish) people on the planet right now.

Assuming they are not shackled to their work stations they have to leave their homes and drive to work every day. I’m pretty sure I’d rapidly develop a good non-specific symptom requiring home rest for a good few days/weeks. Or maybe treatment at a foreign clinic.

BV

Doesn't that sound spookily similar to the GW Bush claims of WMD in Iraq? If they want to bomb, they will always be able to manufacture a threat that justifies the response.

As neither mod nor admin:
crab, and for that matter any of you: if you'd like a laugh, have a look at what charliegolf posted in Friday Memes.

6 x B-2A en route to Guam

KC-135R/T and KC-46A currently at: PSAB, Saudi Arabia 22 / Moron AB, Spain 18 / Lajes AB, Portugal 12

A wave of KC-46 deployed west out of California to Hawaii, Guam and Australia about 36 hours ago to support their deployment. Presumably en-route to Diego Garcia.

"Sir, we have lost all intel".
"Don't worry soldier we have access to PPRuNe" ;)

Several B-2 Spirit bombers have recently departed Whiteman AFB heading west. 30-hour round trip to/from central Iran. I should not like to be on the receiving end.

- Ed

The ONLY reason that Iran has a nuclear program is to provide it the means to make a nuclear weapon. To say that a country swimming in oil and gas needs nuclear power for energy generation is risible. They have long term form in hiding nuclear production facilities and enriching uranium way past any possible peaceful use. As soon as Iran makes a bomb the security calculus in the area immediately and permanently changes. The options to constrain the malevolent reach of Iran's fanatical leadership is dramatically reduced. The senior leadership of Iran routinely call for "death to America and death to Israel" so I would suggest that eliminating Iran's nuclear weapons is in the national security interests of the US.

I firmly believe the right thing to do is to bomb every nuclear or nuclear related site to dust, but then follow up with a relaxation of sanctions contingent on Iran not rebuilding any of its infrastructure. This is a Middle East inflection point. The combination of the destruction of Iran's proxies along with the collapsing Iranian economy gives the US and Israel an unprecedented chance to reorder the security situation in the area. Time for the US to step up.

"Not helping, sir!" :}
(Posted as neither mod nor admin, but with a song in my heart)

I think the regime in Iran will understand the message. Unless it's another Trump TACO situation.