The Iranians may have come to the same conclusion with regard to those they would negotiate with.

A contrarian position would be that the next Prez will have a simpler problem to deal with, as the US will be regressing to the defensive perimeter that ICE and TSA can maintain, with no allies, other than Putin (seriously... that remains hard to even write) a Canada that is aligned with Europe, Australia aligning with Canada and Europe, and the new paradigm of FMS to... Burundi, and other similarly minded states. India is stepping out rather well in their own independent weapon system designs, although they have seen the Russian systems remain no better than the Soviet ones and so they are focused towards EUR systems. China, gets a free pass as it stands, which is only a problem if you consider that is a problem. Japan has to amend their constitution, (thanks, Don) and consider reliable allies, as will South Korea, which in spite of their historical issues, have common aims and are able to be effective allies.

This leads Israel in the business of bouncing rubble in Gaza and Lebanon, presumably a reasonable response to the begetting and begatting of violence that arises when 2 groups are sitting in the same sand box and there is no intent to remove the t1Rds from the kitty litter of 70 years of intolerance.

Is this a good thing? Depends. Taking out heads of state such as Maduro, as much as he was odious doesn't increase stability, nor does zapping fizz boats in the waters of other nations, but it is just another day ending in Y today. That the relative ease of removing a head of state from Venezuela set the expectations of a quick and gratifying removal of Irans head shed probably will look less glorious in the cold light of day.

We are getting a global reset, possibly on the order of the dinosaurs after Chicxulub, and maybe, that is what comes from the indifference that passes for civics in the west today.

What is curious is that China is not going to be happy with the changes, it forces their hands if this continues; it doesn't help India, although the consequence of famine there will certainly increase the opportunities for co-generation from funeral pyres, which seems to be a neat efficiency step. Taiwan will not be happy, but then they will be irrelevant in the biggly scheme of things, they are incidental to the problems of China other than being a political rallying point for a panda coming towards the natural end of his reversion to the gang of 4, the one thing that the CCP vowed never to repeat. Mexico will have a great opportunity to continue supporting the USA, but only as guest workers and imports. The need for guest workers will be dependent on the amount of potash that gets sent south from Canada, but DJT can always get it instead from Belarus and Russia, from the US's new allies.

All up, it seems that the opportunity for opportunity is quite large, for those that don't get planted in the dirt on the way through. The biggly, niggly bit is, Dale Carnegie would probably disagree with the strategy of making long term protagonists as a strategy.

I would suggest that Vlad the Impalers problems came from his megalomaniac tendencies mixed with paranoia. Vlad wants to be remembered as Vlad the Great... Fair enough. To achieve that, he had to have external threats that were existential, and he made that up in the caucuses, then Ukraine, to magically concentrate the public interest to other than the corruption and graft of his government. In DJTs case, he is not a megalomaniac as far as I can see, he presents generally as a sociopathic narcissist, who cannot balance a cheque book, and is adept at avoiding consequences as much as the original "teflon Don" did. Right now, John Giotti would be pretty annoyed at being left in the dust by the efforts of POTUS to extend his history of wreckage of commercial enterprises to include the USA, and much if not all of the world. That is far outside of the capacity of Vlad, so, to that end, kudos to DJT, well played.

So much for Trumps rhetoric about destroying all of Irans airforce.

The latest Shipping News
Sal comments on the efficacy of the US Blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman, the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

Is it true that the Iranian Air Force Museum are annoyed and want it back?

It now appears that ‘peace’ in Iran and restarting normal traffic through the strait is weeks /months away
So where do we ( plus the EU ) get oil to survive ?

Is it THAT critical ?? We don’t appear to panicking with rationing etc yet.

The longer the strait is closed the more cost effective / likely do overland pipelines become.

Iran had better be careful it doesn’t hold all the cards !

Question : how quickly can pipelines be built in an emergency which this now is ?

Large fire at a US commissary building on the outskirts of RAF Fairford. Sabotage?

Video

Sal Mercogliano:

To answer your question - at least partially - pipelines themselves are relatively quick and easy to construct. I once project managed an Ethylene pipeline 120 km long from concept to conclusion in 9 months. But that's a diddy little thing with low viscosity fluid compared to what is needed here. I would imagine the limiting factor is the equipment needed for the pumping stations. Pumps are powered by electrical or turbines often generating multi megawatts. This kit has multi year lead times and ain't sitting on a shelf at your local DIY store!
Many different pipeline projects have been proposed around the Middle East but almost all come up against political and geographic constraints. The market has effectively chosen the flexibility of using VLCCs to transport oil and petroleum products.

Given the geography of the region, with Iran always having the capability to close the Straits of Hormuz at will, perhaps the market needs to/will have a rethink

From a purely aviation perspective, nice to see the Phantoms still flying.

The Saudis built the East - West pipeline specifically to cover risk of the SoH closing. It has a plate capacity of 7million bbl however, the load capacity is, as I understand it, lim about 5 million. Iran attacked and damaged the pipeline but I now understand it has been repaired.

Interesting to note that they are estimated to have approximately 60 F4s in service (early 2026) of which, presumably, a number will have been destroyed. As 40 - 60 year old cabs, their serviceability is questionable, with them often referred-to as Frankenstein jets following much cannibalisation. Those that have received avionic upgrades are capable of carrying anti-ship missiles (Chinese C802?) Not sure I would fancy launching in one for an attack on shipping however!

Re the Fairford blaze, I wonder if it is just a coincidence that this was organised for yesterday? I picked up the leaflet in Green leaning
https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....234e57acfc.jpg
Stroud last week.

Based on some of my experiences in aircraft maintenance, and some with overhaul, I tip my cap to the mechanics and engineers who keep those Phantoms flying. Getting, and reverse engineering, parts for those birds takes a bit of talent.
I doubt it. (But perhaps it was an accident...)

Someone plug a US appliance into British mains power?

”What’s that smell?…… Is that smoke? …..Is that flame!?
”Fire! Fire! Fire! Help! Help! Help!”

When I was about 11, I forgot to plug one of my electronic games (electric football) into a transformer before plutting it into a 220 VAC outlet in Germany.
Smoked it, ruined it, and got a right arse chewing from my father.

Morale seems OK.....

COMSEC in the era of international commercial LEO satellite constellations with AI intelligence analysis and distribution.....

6 decimal places in digital Lat & Long is an accuracy of 0.1M (4 inches....)

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....06ebbefee9.png