Hopefully, with working heads and full larders. :}

The NPT is the bit of paper that gives some credence to that position, and it got torn up by a vandal, when there was some measure of inspections and observing of Irans activities. Ooops.
Having removed that unilaterally, I am at a loss to understand what was expected to be the subsequent game that would play out. What was the justification for Iran remaining compliant with an agreement that had been trashed by one of the major players in its formation?

The US maintains a policy of not threatening TNWs against a signatory of the NPT that does not have TNW's. At this very time, seems that is the case, otherwise we would probably have night glow marshmallows on tik-tok. Threatening the use of TNWs is somewhere in the old wording a war crime, and yet, today, it is a yawn, just another tweet before the next one and after the one before, all combining into a level of incoherent international and defence (war) policy that seems to get curiouser and curiouser the closer we get to the rabbit hole.

To de-escalate the situation, the fundamental, "intractable" problem that arises from Israels last century and this one, needs to be put back into a semblance of order. To consider that all Iranians hate Israel or the USA is inconsistent with the evidence; Israel makes it relatively easy for any militant group to establish a cause with their state in the center of the bulls eye. We collectively are distressed by an attack on an Israeli citizen by a terrorist, yet the killing of infants and children in the response is apparently of a lesser level of evil, so a determination is made as the the value of one child vs another, which seems to be arbitrary in nature. Plinking a school full of young girls doesn't even rate an "ooops, my bad..." occurring in an undeclared war which makes that potentially a mass homicide, if the declaration of war has any meaning today.

In a world that has decided that only might has right, and is prepared to threaten TNW release more readily than it picks it's collective noses, I am not sure I can see a legal or ethical argument, in fact it seems that the whole get yourself defended against aggressor nations which have TNWs would seem to be in order. This is not the world I wish to be part of, it is where we are heading in this strange period.


The UK and Russia, and the USA didn't help the problem much. As far as Iran is concerned, Shah Reza in 1941 while being a neutral country favoured Hitler, which ended up with the UK and Russia invading in 1941, (there be some oil there) and forcing the abdication of the old guy, in favour of his son, Mohammad. Reza Shah Pahlavi. The change of the government back in 1953, was a combined MI6/CIA exercise, (operation Ajax) so the US does not get a free pass on that. Mo Mossadegh would have been better not trying to mess with the City by trying to nationalise the Anglo Iranian Oil Co.... (now, BP, previously the APOC up to 1935). The Shah's white revolution and poor economy and some liberal insults ended up being a poor career move. Iran has had a few revolutions along the way, and frequently they have had broad support. Radicalism doesn't diminish by making additional martyrs, not unless you have a lot of ammo.

They would, wouldn't they?
And their toll booth wold be rightly referred to as extortion.

Mining.

MRAF Harris, in BOMBER COMMAND states that in WWII one vessel was sunk for every 50 mines deployed. If true this is an astonishingly effective and economical of depoyment of power, in his case air power.

Only? India appears to also have an NFU (No First Use) policy.

I think he means paying people to die so the US Forces don't have to. Maybe Wagner Group would be interested.

With all this mine laying (not sweeping LW!), one assumes that if any had been found/detected it would be all over the news...?

No video's, no photo's, no DJT social truth showing us these millions of floating or any detection system showing submerged mines?

One would assume that underwater drones nowadays would be used to find chunky metal orbs chained to the bottom of the sea - pending the sea depth and the amount of chain length needed, all carefully laid under the watch of a hundred hi res sats and who knows how many surveillance aircraft...

Iran has already offered to open the Straits if the US lifts its naval blockade. Any further military action would presumably lead to its closure once again.

As for military options to force the Straits open, well good luck with that. It couldn’t realistically be achieved without boots on the ground in some numbers. Even then I doubt safe passage could be guaranteed given the Iranians could always fire ballistic missiles or launch drones from their hinterland.

In essence, the US has gotten itself into what their military call a giant clusterf*ck.

https://www.hisutton.com/Iranian-Naval-Mines.html

Guide To Iran's Naval Mines

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....25e5303d3.jpeg
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I saw a video on youtube suggesting that the United Staes had taken out an Iranian submarine/patrol boat hidden cave system in the gulf, is there any truth to this or is it just more fake news?

I would be surprised if Iran was not using fishing vessels (or craft disguised as fishing vessels) to lay mines in the strait. Very easy to disguise mine laying within typical fishing vessel tracks. Makes it much harder for the US to target them with confidence and complicates mine-sweeping based on surveillance.

:ok: I removed my inquiry, I suspected that is what you meant.
As some of my sailors used to say: We need a fresh goat, this one's fcuked out.
Yep. We ran a wargame for the Korean Peninsula (about 30 years ago) and that's one of the things that the 'white cell' (game masters) put on the table for Orange forces to have in their kit bag...

DOW Briefing 24 Apr 26

Ceasefire or basically screwed.. the US appear to be running low on weapons.

Has there been any discussion about whether the Abraham Lincoln group is being replaced by Bush, or will it remain in the area?

That's a good question.
It is not uncommon for a carrier relieving another one to spend a week or two operating with them before the one being relieved heads home.
CENTCOM will probably make an utterance about that within the next week.
Note: Lincoln's current deployment began 21 Nov 2025. (From San Diego, CA).
It will hit the 'six month' standard next month, but as I noted previously, that "six months" is not written in stone.
They may get extended.

For NutLoose:
When this began, Secretary Hegseth made some remarks about 'four to five weeks' and I made a guess a few days afterwards that this matched roughly where the ammo expenditure would start to show. With the on and off cease fires stuff for the past couple of weeks, I guess I slightly undersold the operational stamina but I'll put a notional ten-dollar bet down in Vegas that you hit the mark with this:

The drug runners in the Caribbean ,who the media like to refer to as "poor fisherman" have found out that disguising themselves by using a fishing boats does not end well for them.

Hangarless, I don't think that the US has a DEA + local government surveillance screen in Iran that is similar to what is in Venezuela and Colombia.
You are not making a valid comparison.

But I would not put it past Pete H to try that in the Persian Gulf. :p

Maritime logistics for US Naval Forces.
Sal’s latest take on the matter.

He said this morning, I do believe ,that the small fast boats in the Strait will be getting the same treatment that is given in the Caribbean.

Who really knows what surveillance ability and intelligence gathering is available to the US but my bet is that it is quite substantial.