....................
According to the Washington Post, citing people with knowledge on the matter, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) delivered a confidential assessment to administration officials with the key judgment that Iran can weather the U.S. blockade for at least three to four months.

Additionally, the assessment reportedly says that Iran still retains significant ballistic missile stockpiles despite U.S.-Israeli strikes on underground facilities.

Per the report, and tracking with past reporting on the subject, “75 percent of its prewar inventories of mobile launchers and about 70 percent of its prewar stockpiles of missiles.”
​​​​​​​

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c9be097ae3.png
​​​​​​​
https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2ed93f0915.png
​​​​​​​

That's a lot longer than the West.

Entirely possible as there was this report earlier and the markets are showing a sudden drop in the last few hours and there are also reports that ground targets have been struck

Please tell me: who is "The West" and why can't they handle this?

....................

​​​​​​​As long as it is dead, this seems to be a good time to turn the "toll booth" into a gravel pit.

It will be interesting to see how the Egyptian Rafales get on, those crotch straps on the life preeservers don't look very comfortable...

I gather from that Photo that the Egyptians are going to offer combat air sorties in support of ops from Saudi Arabia?
Or is that a reach?

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....038f863a0.jpeg

"The dropped ever so beautifully down to the Ocean, very much like a butterfly dropping to its grave."
TR wept.
WTF? A love tap? Who is writing this script? :ugh:
*sigh* The Reality TV Show continues...

I am sure that in Iran, they are now playing this nice song by Culture Club.

You Tube

OK, fair, not likely.

Somewhere, deep in the Pentagon, someone is telling someone else
"Ya need to 86 that briefcase. Yeah, deep down below {a certain place}"

Out at sea, on the destroyers, the crusty old Chiefs are having a coffee in the Chief's Mess.

"OK, who had butterfly allusions on their Bingo card?
Nobody?
Me neither. The pot rolls over again, put up your bets for tomorrow..." :ugh:

Latest. look at the shipping situation in the strait.
Thanks to Sal.

It may be that Agent Orange is going to get his regime change... just not the one he was intending. Then again, "the teflon is strong with this one..." (a bit late, May the Force is a few days back).

I used to say "May the Fourth be With You" to my dad, since May 4 was his birthday.
He wasn't a Star Wars fan. All I got was a slight raise of the eyebrows, if that.
But my siblings enjoyed our little joke.

And by comparison, the reports a few weeks ago, suggested that approximately a third to a half of USA / Israel interceptor stocks were consumed. More in some key stocks.

Matching categories is of course more complex, and the USA at least has other world areas to pay attention to (not the least Ukraine, not that you'd tell from the behaviour of the trump administration) and so any public domain discussion is going to be very difficult.

But what does seem clear, is that future success by USA et al cannot be guaranteed in a risk free manner.

Well apart from the "love taps" and apparent exchange of fire concerning the USN (none of which is confirmed with UKMTO - military ships that experience what has been described do get included on the UKMTO lists usually)...all has been quiet overnight in the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman and Bab-el-Mandab.

One ship that had gone dark after starting her transit of the Strait of Hormuz has now come back online, Interstellar. She is currently south of Karachi and on her way to Osaka.


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....9099d9df9e.png

Unfortunately there is still no sighting of CMA CGM San Antonio, still no news or sighting of her.

As for the social media post (and the Pulp Fiction from Hegseth).....why are they behaving as if this is a video game or reality TV show....this is a real life conflict, with real people who are getting killed and injured. I do not understand the devil may care attitudes being shown on this. It is sickening.

I totally understand why the Gulf States are starting to turn their back and get angry, they are afterall in the front line of any retaliation from Iran and they all have a lot to lose. Much was said about the proverbial "walls have ears" and "loose lips sink ships"...yet we have daily commentary from the CiC via social media as to what is planned, what will happen, what is happening...might be OK on a video game but in real life conflict...not...you don't do that cos it endangers everyone on the front line (common sense to those who have it).

Perhaps Trump's game is simply to blockade the Straits for as long as possible and by any means necessary - forcing up the oil price to inflict damage on Europe and to boost Putin's oil revenues.

Trump has said this will be a quick war. That actually means it will be a long one.

Questions are being raised regarding the fire and explosion aboard HMM Namu on May 4th, 2026. Iran are still not admitting to an attack on the ship. The Koreans have confirmed no exterior damage on the hull or superstructure, which would be indicative of something external hitting it.

At the time of the incident, she was anchored off Umm Al Quwain (she still is, see attached image the port can be seen near the bottom of the image). There were several other ships around her and crews aboard those ships have said that they heard an explosion.

The Koreans are putting forward a new potential cause, that of drifting mines and the damage done to the ship's engineroom and subsequent fire was possibly a result of a shock wave from a mine. The Iranians have been quite open in regard to their mines and that they don't know where they might be. The Koreans are not accepting that the damage and fire were due to a fault onboard the ship.

The mystery of how the explosion happened followed by a fire which has left the ship completely powerless rumbles on.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4052a356df.png

Mystery Deepens Over Explosion and Fire on HMM Vessel as Iran Denies Attack (Maritime Executive - May 7, 2026)

The worrying thing about the mines explanation for what happened is that there is a significant distance from the area that the Iranians specified was mined when they initially launched their toll booth re-route and where HMM Namu was anchored at the time of the explosion. On the image below...the supposed danger area that was mined is literally on the tip of the Khasab Peninsular tween Khasab and Larak. Umm al Quwain is at the bottom left corner of the image below, a very long distance from the supposedly mined area of the Strait of Hormuz and if mines have drifted down the coast of the UAE it would have devastating consequences for all of the ships on the Ras-al-Khaimah, Umm al Quwain, Al Hamriya, Sharjah, Dubai and Jebel Ali anchorages


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3d553ed643.png

Hopefully the Iranians can find out where their mines are before another ship experiences being hit with one......and hopefully the HMM Namu's owners can finally find the actual cause of the explosion and fire once she is towed to Dubai drydocks for repairs. There are a few mysteries to solve and, as always, many lives are at risk....along with the environmental impact.

New information has come out of an Iranian tanker, Hasna, having its rudder "shot out" by and F/A-18 from the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 6, 2026. The ship is under sanction by the US, was given several warnings to stop or turn around which it failed to comply with. As a result the aircraft was launched from the carrier and its 20mm cannon was used to hit the rudder...the ship was in ballast, thus the top half of her rudder was out of the water at the time.

U.S. Navy Fighter Shoots Out the Rudder of an Iranian Tanker (Marine Executive - May 6, 2026)

Hasna is currently off Al Widayyat in Oman. No report of casualties is available.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....244e996ab3.png