Latest report in The Guardian:-

Denied by CENTCOM.

CENTCOM denied Missiles. Video released by Iran looks more like a mine.

The line is increasing. Over the last few days there have been around 25 to 30 ships being anchored stern to bow on that exact same line from Khasab to Ramchah. As soon as they get to their spot in the line, the AIS is being turned off, it takes exactly 24 hours for the AIS signal to fade off the charts.

Ships entering from the Gulf of Oman side of the Strait of Hormuz will not see the line of Iranian ships until they turn into the Persian Gulf at the top of the Khasab Peninsular, they will not show up on radar or AIS systems. The Iranians perfected this tactic during the Iran vs Iraq war, they used an identical means to block the route from the Persian Gulf to Umm Qasr and Khor-al-Zubair ports with cargo ships lined up across from Shatt-al-Arab to Grand Faw / Bubyan Island.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d91d350b03.png


Someone seriously needs to stop Trump broadcasting what is being done via his social media, he is potentially endangering his own Naval personnel and the lives of those on the civilian ships. No matter how much the US denies that their ships are attacked, it stands to reason that they have to say don't they? They cannot admit openly that they have been attacked due to Trumps constant announcements that Iran has no Navy, no bombs etc. They cannot control what they cannot see til it is too late to react, USS Cole proved that.

I don't think the Houthis are doing this independently.

For ATNotts: not going to bet against your assessment.

I suspect there are various countries around the world that want nothing to do with the Straits of Hormuz situation who will nonetheless find they are able to provide naval assets, and, more importantly, have the willingness, to help tackle the issue of Somali piracy.

They do. However as has been seen before, the radar signature and the actual vessel can differ. There have already been cases of merchant ships that had been anchored close to the Khasab - Ramchah line being ordered via VHF radio by Iran to move away from that line of ships, at least one was fired upon in the last 24 hours (thankfully no-one hurt and no damage done). The skiffs have also been harrassing ships that do not move away fast enough. It appears that any vessel within sight range of the line is being shifted away. Ships that have been anchored off Ras Al Khaimah are being ordered out of that area by Iran.

The average length of the cargo ships in the line is 65m, ample space to hide skiffs in its shadow. Once AIS is turned off the ship will become invisible, hence why it is a legal obligation to leave the system switched on even at anchor. These Iranian cargo ships are going dark as soon as they have anchored, the AIS signals are showing til 24 hours pass, after that unless you actually look for them via AIS (if you know their IMO identification or name) you will be hard pressed to see them and the skiffs rarely if ever have AIS transponders.

At the same time that Iran has been building the line of ships on the Khasab-Ramchah line, the Houthi have increased their harrassment and attempted hijacking at Bab-el-Mandab. Given that the Houthi are aligned with Iran, it is more than coincidental that both major shipping route choke points are experiencing raised activity levels. All of the above is being confirmed by UKMTO.

Link to video?

A site someone sent me.
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/

There have been anti-Somali-pirate flotillas in the past, many of them multinational, but the addition of the Houthi loonies to the problem may make some of the ones with weaker spines unwilling to participate.
We'll see.
Hopefully my pessimism is ill founded.

Given that Iran seems to be lobbing missiles at UAE again and is claiming to have fired ‘warning shots’ at a US destroyer etc. is it time to take the gloves off again ?

FONOPS is necessary unless the logistics avoids the area where possible, which would be a fair impact to the global economy. small boats are a big enough tactical pain, but drones are far more problematic, if the intent is not piracy but disruption. Pirates make concentration of force more effective, convoys make sense. The drones make convoys great targets, but also concentrate anti drone capabilities.

As much fun as pushing back on the drone drivers is, that would involve de-populating Yemen, and Somalia, which would raise eyebrows. Short of that, then convoys and far more anti drone capability is necessary, and that is all well and good until Yemen plonks some mines in the sea ways on the east channel at least.

As far as coalitions are concerned, the greatest impediment to such action comes from the strategic time frame that now exists with the USA, which currently alters about 4-5 times a day, and sometime more frequently, in the same sentence. An example of why this is a problem is the latching that is occurring at present of some perceived slight by a single leader that then results in a response in retribution that can be argued as being a self harm event... such as a beef on Germany being disinclined in joining a fight in Iran that they were not consulted in before the action, and that response resulting in the withdrawal of US troops from Germany with a 5,000 man initial drawdown, and comments that they will be much greater. It is a strange season where an alliance with the US may very well then include a relationship with Putin's Russia, which is still largely distrusted and reviled as an regime that has been conducting war crimes for an extended period, arguably since 1993. When the friend of your friend is a criminal, there is a bit of reserve; alliances of that sort led to WW-1.

Epic Goat 2
 

Looks like Part Deux has got off to zippy start with yet again Iran taking it to UAE.

It is difficult to believe there is actually a plan involved in this latest US effort, unless of course torching the Middle East oil industry is the plan.

Listened to a US Gov guy on CNBC today waxing lyrical about how US and Venezuela could replace lost oil from Gulf.

Ho hum.

sorry, unable to download video from i but here is a screenshot - no belief in validity. It does not look like Missiles
https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc6bd5f6c.jpeg

Looks dubious to me - any of our resident navy experts care to weigh in on the type?

What is being reported is that the US have sunk several small boats.

On Fox

And from the Arab Times.

BillS

Looks like an Oliver Hazard Perry class, which the USN no longer use, and images look like a sinkex in 2016 (USS Thach?)?

USS Samuel B Roberts FFG-58 - Perry Class -
Damaged by Iranian mine 1988 - with no loss of life.
Repaired and decommissioned about 2015.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2a9d526f84.png​​​​​​​

USN, obliquely, confirming the Strait has been mined.......

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5c634e56d7.png