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Iran's response be like "Okay cool, could you give us like a decade or two?"
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Originally Posted by dead_pan
(Post 12074171)
To keep within the mil theme (and the mods happy), this must be taking a huge toll on all the service personnel deployed on this op, especially the USN crews. |
On the US side it will come to a head when the Pentgon tells Trump the deployed squadrons, the carriers and the MEUs need to come home because they can’t remain in theatre any more for money/suply/maintenance/morale reasons.
At whic stage it becomes put up or shut up time…. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12074176)
Desperate for an off ramp.
But with the IRGC now jn the driving seat I don’t think he’ll get one…. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....49e2744d60.png Iranians mocking the Americans waiting for talks…. |
The Dead Ship Registry How zombie tankers use the identities of scrapped ships to move sanctioned cargo through the world’s most-watched chokepoint tanker broadcasting the identity of a scrapped Japanese LNG carrier transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 20, 2026. The vessel’s IMO number belonged to the LNG Jamal, a ship that had been beached at an Indian demolition yard five months earlier. The signal was clean. The identity passed automated screening. The cargo moved. I am reminded of the technique used by people looking for a new identity (such as spies and those wanting to disappear). They would walk through cemeteries looking for a child's grave with a birth date within a few years of their own. |
ISW:
Maritime Developments: The US Navy’s interdiction of the US-sanctioned Tifani oil tanker in the Bay of Bengal on April 20 and 21 illustrates that US forces can interdict any vessel that violates the US blockade on Iranian ports far beyond the Gulf of Oman. The US Navy interdicted the US-sanctioned Botswana-flagged tanker Tifani in the US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) area of responsibility in the Bay of Bengal overnight on April 20 and 21 without incident. A US military official told the New York Times on April 21 that the White House would decide on the disposition of the sanctioned vessel and its cargo after US forces took it into custody. Commercially available shipping data shows the Tifani vessel abruptly made a sharp turn south and moved out of a popular shipping lane in the Bay of Bengal. This could indicate that US forces are escorting the Tifani to a port in order to impound the vessel. The maritime intelligence organization Tanker Trackers said on April 21 that the Tifani had traveled from Iran to China at least five times since 2023. US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on April 21 that US forces have directed 28 Iranian-linked vessels to turn around or return to port since the start of the blockade on April 13. Commercially available data shows that three vessels turned around near Chabahar Port, Sistan and Baluchistan Province, in the past two days. Two of the three vessels, the Iranian-flagged and US-sanctioned Artman and Shamim, turned back towards Chabahar after approaching the US blockade line. The third vessel, the Comoros-flagged Calista, left from Chabahar towards Karachi, Pakistan, but turned around and returned to Chabahar. Iranian media claimed on April 21 that one of its vessels, the Felicity, bypassed the US blockade with the support of the Artesh Navy. The Felicity delivered two million barrels of Iranian crude oil to India around April 12 following a US sanctions waiver, one day before the start of the blockade. Commercially available data shows that the Felicity stayed in the Gulf of Kutch, India, for about three days before heading back towards the Strait of Hormuz on April 18. It is theoretically possible for the Felicity to have turned off its transponder on April 18 and crossed the US blockade line in about four days, but there is no evidence that this occurred. https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f2c6b740b.jpeg |
Trump: Blockade until there are productive talks and “a deal”.
Iran: No talks until blockade lifted. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0d38dcdf5.jpeg Iran Ready for Talks Once US Lifts Naval Blockade, Envoy Says Iran’s UN Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani stated that Tehran is prepared to negotiate immediately after the United States ends its naval blockade, emphasizing that Washington must first halt its "ceasefire violations." |
My understanding (happy to be corrected) is that, without Congressional Approval, Trump can only maintain his 'SMO' against Iran for 60 days (potentially plus another 30 days) and that time limit must now be quite close. What happens if Trump hits the 60/90 day time limit without an outbreak of peace?
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Iranian forces appear to have attacked a pair of container ships from the European shipping giant MSC as they ran the Strait of Hormuz this morning. One vessel suffered heavy damage to its bridge, and both are now stopped off the coast of Iran. https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....8854fc76e2.png https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....40bf7d3f57.png Video MSC Francesca and Epaminondas both stopped, with another Greek-owned ship, Euphoria, possibly targeted and now stopped off Iran as well. |
That will piss Trump off bigly........
https://www.thetimes.com/article/86f...a-58e7b7503473 Ukraine ready to send ships from UK to help reopen Strait of Hormuz Four Ukrainian minehunters docked in Portsmouth could form part of a British and French-led mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz once the conflict has calmed, it is understood. Ukrainian naval officers will attend a multinational military planning summit on Wednesday at Permanent Joint Headquarters (PJHQ) in Northwood, northwest London. They will say they are “ready” to send any of the ships, two of which Ukraine bought from Britain to de-mine the Black Sea when the war ends, a Ukrainian military source disclosed...... Kyiv wants to help its allies as much as possible in the Middle East. It fears President Trump could turn against Ukraine and carve out a deal with Russia, which has been accused of helping Iran. Other ways Ukraine could help include sending maritime drones or counter-drone equipment to help allied nations protecting shipping from Iranian drone and missile attacks. The source said: “We are ready to offer everything. There are four minehunters, all in Portsmouth. They can’t go to Ukraine because first of all they would be target number one, and secondly because of the Montreux convention.” He was referring to a 1936 agreement that restricts passage of military vessels through the Bosporus Strait in times of war. The convention means that the former HMS Shoreham and HMS Grimsby — the two Royal Navy Sandown-class minehunters transferred to Ukraine’s armed forces in 2023 to strengthen its ability to operate at sea — have remained in British waters because they cannot transit to the Black Sea. Longer term, Ukraine hopes they will form a critical capability for its defence of its coastlines by detecting and disabling sea mines and therefore protecting commercial shipping. The minehunters UNS Mariupol and Melitopol are also at Portsmouth naval base. They were handed to Ukraine after serving in the Belgian and Dutch navies. Formerly the BNS Narcis and HNLMS Vlaardingen, the ships are training with the Royal Navy with Ukrainian crew while they wait for an end to the war. HMS Shoreham carried out a three-year deployment to the Middle East from 2018, securing sea lanes for merchant ships. The vessel was in charge of handling mines placed in deep waters because its sonar detaches from the hull and can be lowered. It could be a long time before the British and French-led force in the Strait of Hormuz takes shape and some vessels would take weeks to reach the region if it is decided they are required. How the multi-national force would work with the US also remains unclear. Trump said on Friday that Nato should stay away from the strait, accusing the alliance of being “useless when needed” and calling it a “paper tiger”........ |
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BREAKING: The United States Air Force is deploying three more AC-130J Ghostrider gunships to United States Central Command areas of responsibility. With their arrival in the Middle East, the total number of these gunships in theater will increase to six. The aircraft are expected to arrive in Saudi Arabia within the next 48 to 72 hours. They are set to take part in the second phase of Operation Epic Fury against Iran. |
The airborne boys are getting busy again in the region.KC-135R's are arriving on station, KC-46A's are prowling, and civilian traffic appears to be reducing around DXB, AUH, and DOH. The next 48 hours will be pivotal.
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It appears the two ships, at 5476 above, attacked by the Ianiand have now been boarded and captured - at least according to Iran.
Iran's IRGC Navy says that it captured a pair of container ships that attempted to sail through the Strait of Hormuz this morning. The ships were attacked and then seized by Iranian forces. |
Originally Posted by ORAC
(Post 12074489)
It appears the two ships, at 5476 above, attacked by the Ianiand have now been boarded and captured - at least according to Iran.
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Who is going to provide the defence forces? these ships are registered in places like the Solomons or some other cheap spot. Logically people don't see why they should risk the lives of their forces to protect people who don't pay taxes to them and actually go out of their way to avoid any oversight by larger countries.
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Don't tell the Don......
https://archive.is/20260422102737/ht...ay-2026-04-22/ Exclusive: US turns to Ukrainian counter-drone tech after Iran attacks, sources say NEW YORK, April 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. military has introduced Ukrainian counter-drone technology in recent weeks at a key U.S. air base in Saudi Arabia, according to five people with knowledge of the matter, as it seeks to stem attacks that have destroyed aircraft and buildings, and killed at least one service member. The deployment of a Ukrainian command-and-control platform called !Sky Map at Prince Sultan Air Base, which has not previously been reported, is a sign of how Ukraine’s military has surged ahead in drone and counter-drone technologies that have been battle-hardened in its four-year war with Russia. Ukrainian military officials arrived at the base in recent weeks to train U.S. warfighters with Sky Map, which is used widely by the Ukrainian military to detect incoming drone threats – including Iranian-developed Shahed drones – and launch counter-attacks with interceptor drones. As cheap, mass-produced drones play a large role in Russia's war in Ukraine, the Pentagon has ramped up investments in counter-drone technology. But the use of Ukrainian technology at Prince Sultan, which is about 400 miles (640 kilometers) from Iran and has endured waves of drones and missiles since the war began, highlights vulnerabilities in U.S. air and missile defense, analysts say. “There's been longstanding gaps in U.S. air missile defense coverage around the world,” said Timothy Walton, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Hudson Institute think tank. “This has been well understood. However, it hasn't been addressed.” The development comes a month after President Donald Trump publicly rejected an offer from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to provide help in combating Iranian drone strikes. “We don't need their help in drone defense,” Trump told Fox News on March 6. The White House and the Pentagon directed questions to U.S. Central Command, which oversees Prince Sultan. Central Command declined to comment. Sky Fortress, the Ukrainian company that owns Sky Map, declined to comment. Zelenskiy’s office did not respond to a comment request........ |
USAF United States Air Force - Iran War 2026 Operation Lions Roar / Epic Fury - D+52 21 April - 2100z T otal number of flights now stand at 1,135, up 34 from the 18th of April. Of these 34, 15 are from Pope Army Airfield. In addition to the 32 new flights, there are another 35 in-progress flights with 8 of those being from Pope Army Airfield. While most of the Army-related flights are currently from Pope AAF, there has been another flight from Campbell AAF, and a first flight from Wheeler-Sack Army Airfield. Wheeler-Sack AAF is home to the U.S. Army 10th Mountain Division, Combat Aviation Brigade. There have been 80 C-17s from Pope Army Airfield* since the start of April. |
Sentinel-2 satellite image today shows what looks like a flotilla of IRGCN fast attack crafts sailing north of strait of Hormuz near Kargan coast. At least 33 boats can be seen in what looks like a show of force enforcing the strait closure by Iran. Geo-location: 26.899,56.824 https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....d4e6c76d70.png If I was a betting man, I'd say the IRGC is laying mines in the middle of the Hormuz transit channel today with dozens and dozens of speedboats...... Their wake indicated that they are returning from the middle of the strait / Omani waters. |
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𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗣𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗲𝘀? BLUF (TL;DR) | Congress is investigating whether Airbus satellite imagery, published openly by Chinese AI firm MizarVision, helped Iran target U.S. assets at Prince Sultan Air Base. The more damaging finding is that Iran didn't need a covert intelligence pipeline. The images were public. U.S. aircraft, moveable air defense systems and other high-value assets apparently sat in fixed positions for weeks while their coordinates were freely available online. The failure wasn't in the imagery supply chain. It was in CENTCOM's posture. Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on China, has sent a letter to Defense Secretary Hegseth alleging that Airbus satellite imagery was passed to MizarVision, a Hangzhou-based Chinese AI firm, which published annotated, high-resolution images of U.S. aircraft positions at Prince Sultan Air Base on open platforms for weeks before the March 27 strike. Moolenaar wrote that publishing such imagery "in near real-time provides direct intelligence to Iranian military forces, enabling them to target, launch, and strike American positions." MizarVision is worth understanding. Formally registered as Mishang Technology (Hangzhou) Co., Ltd., founded 2021, fewer than 200 employees. It owns no satellites and operates as an AI processing layer, ingesting imagery from China's Jilin-1 constellation and purchasing commercial data from Western providers. Its founding team carries backgrounds from Huawei and the Chinese Academy of Sciences. It joined X in January 2026 and made its first post on February 24, four days before Operation Epic Fury began. Like all Chinese firms, it operates under CCP authority. The Airbus-to-MizarVision targeting chain has a latency problem. A Shahed-136 navigates to pre-programmed GPS coordinates and doesn't update in flight. For a hardened fixed facility, stale imagery is sufficient. For aircraft on a flight line or a mobile SAM system, it only works if the targets are still there when the drone arrives. On March 27, they were. The same failure extended to THAAD and Patriot air defense systems. Trailer-mounted and repositionable by design, they were set up in static positions long enough to be acquired, targeted, and destroyed. A Ukrainian officer cited in open-source reporting flagged this directly: UAE battery crews were firing as many as eight Patriot interceptors at single Shahed targets while leaving their radar systems in fixed positions visible to commercial satellites. Ukraine built a counter-Shahed doctrine from four years of absorbing Russian strikes: constant dispersal, repositioning, and deception. Aircraft move after missions, radar and launcher positions rotate, and high-value assets don't cluster in the open. Moolenaar is asking Hegseth what Airbus knew and when. Hegseth should be answering what CENTCOM did, after weeks of publicly available targeting-quality imagery of its own bases, to move its assets. Latency and Iran’s targeting successes against repositionable high-value assets like THAAD radars and an E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft, indicate they were left static. Satellite imagery of the tarmac at Prince Sultan clearly shows that aircraft were left clustered. The imagery was open source so both sides had the advantage of foreknowledge. But it appears only one side acted on it. |
Post 5488 above. If it was a civilian operation you'd think it was an insurance job.
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