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-   -   Iran (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/586655-iran.html)

Professor Plum 21st April 2026 00:09


Originally Posted by West Coast (Post 12073602)
You’re welcome to ask the WSJ why they reported it as such. Not sure why you’d guess it was Fox.


Do you have a link to the WSJ story please?

BBadanov 21st April 2026 00:29


Originally Posted by Professor Plum (Post 12073657)
Do you have a link to the WSJ story please?

Hope this comes through...
Seized Iranian-Flagged Ship Was Part of Fleet That Frequented China - WSJ

Hot 'n' High 21st April 2026 09:52

Meanwhile, anyone with any news on HMS Dragon? The last news I can find is here, dated 14 Apr 2026. Slightly worrying is the line "..........At the time of writing, HMS Dragon has been docked for around a week and no indication as to when it will return to its patrol. The vessel is not currently at sea. .......". Maybe we can't afford the fuel budget? Spent 3 months alongside once as we'd burned through our fuel allowance for the year. Still, the trip to the Far East using the fuel up made up for the enforced time along side when we got home! :ok: Anyway, just wondering.

The other rather odd comment was at the end of the above article - ".......Nevertheless, the novel concept of having a warship forward deployed – albeit temporarily – to the region serves to reduce reaction time to a matter of days, rather than weeks."!!!!!!!! What? How long a memory do "Naval Technology" have? That must be tongue-in-cheek - I hope so given the fate of HMSs Lancaster and Middleton! You know, they had me going there for a second!!!!!! :E

Thinking about all of this, given the timing of the decisions, it almost smacks of "Military Insider Trading"........

"Erm, Admiral, a mate told me it's all about to kick off in the Gulf. Best we bring the guys and gals home! No, just scrap Lancaster out there. We don't have any fuel spare to bring her home...........". :}

Nelson would be ....................! Me? I'm just assuming that they are filming a new series of a MoD-based "Yes Minister" in a fly-on-the-wall documentary style!!!!!! :ok:

Lonewolf_50 21st April 2026 11:54

Bonkey makes a good point about negotiations...and the approach to date (which would hopefully end this current mess) has been" we make a deal I can live with or I bomb you." Not quite a "win-win" philosophy.
But there's another wrinkle that indicates an extension of the current mess: the IRGC is apparently accelerating a trend that's been present over the past few years: they are taking an increasing role in Iran's government...and they for sure are not going to want to have to look "soft" if theirs is the face that increasingly is associated with the government.
For albatross: "disabling fire" was in our kit bag in the maritime embargo operations that I was involved with. It's a standard part of the op. Not sure why you are losing your chili over that.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, has blocked President Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential appointments and erected what sources described as a security cordon around Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, a report published Tuesday by Iran International said. The IRGC effectively has assumed control over key state functions, the report claimed.

"It was always a matter of when, not if, the IRGC was going to step forward even more than it has in the last three decades," Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Fox News Digital.

Pezeshkian has reached a "complete political deadlock" as tensions between his administration and the military leadership deepen, according to the report.

Analysts say a more powerful IRGC likely would mean a more confrontational Iran, less willing to compromise in talks with Washington and more inclined to continue military escalation across the region. With U.S.-Iran negotiations already faltering and uncertainty growing over whether Tehran will even send negotiators to the next round of talks, the rise of the Revolutionary Guard raises fresh doubts about who actually is making decisions in Iran and whether any civilian official can still speak for the regime.

"But it’s a mistake to assume this is some sort of coup," Ben Taleblu said. "This has been the process in Iran for years now, as the regime has chosen conflict over cooperation and emboldened its security forces at every juncture."

Pezeshkian’s recent effort to appoint a new intelligence minister collapsed after direct pressure from IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi, sources told Iran International, arguing that all proposed candidates, including former Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan, were rejected.

Vahidi reportedly insisted that under wartime conditions, all critical and sensitive positions must be chosen and managed directly by the Revolutionary Guard until further notice.

"By any standard, Vahidi is considered a radical even within the regime’s hardline elite, and his rise is a warning that Tehran’s war machine now calls the shots," Lisa Daftari, foreign policy analyst and journalist, told Fox News Digital.

Under Iran’s system, the president traditionally nominates an intelligence minister only after securing approval from the supreme leader. But with the condition and whereabouts of Mojtaba Khamenei unclear in recent weeks, the IRGC appears to be increasingly acting without civilian oversight.
This one comes form Fox news, so if you want to cross check that against other sources, by all means do so.

dead_pan 21st April 2026 13:43


Originally Posted by BBadanov (Post 12073662)

Part of a fleet which frequents China?! OMG let's go to DEFCON 4! Seriously though (sorry mods), surely that must be a cast of thousands?

Also its not quite as definitive about the role of this specific vessel as some are making out (from the paragraph and a half I'm allowed to read).

ORAC 21st April 2026 13:50

US Navy Aircraft Carrier Fleet Status Update

Deployed:

-USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) is northbound off the coast of Madagascar and will enter the US 5th Fleet/CENTCOM AOR by this weekend.

-USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) reentered the Red Sea breaking the record for deployment length since the Vietnam War.

-USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) is conducting operations in the Northern Arabian Sea.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....f0c59f18da.png

Lonewolf_50 21st April 2026 13:54

Why did you choose to mix LHD/LHA with CV?
Not the same thing.

ORAC 21st April 2026 14:02

I didn't. I posted the current position of the 3 relevant CVNs and a map of their current locations.

The current locations of the remaining CVNs and LHDs on the USNI map are irrelevant.

ORAC 21st April 2026 14:05

Video

​​​​​​​Overnight, U.S. forces conducted a right-of-visit, maritime interdiction and boarding of the stateless sanctioned M/T Tifani without incident in the INDOPACOM area of responsibility.



As we have made clear, we will pursue global maritime enforcement efforts to disrupt illicit networks and interdict sanctioned vessels providing material support to Iran—anywhere they operate.

International waters are not a refuge for sanctioned vessels.

The Department of War will continue to deny illicit actors and their vessels freedom of maneuver in the maritime domain.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....77c5b9518a.png
​​​​​​​

albatross 21st April 2026 14:37

Maritime situation in the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf
Sal’s recap of Week Seven.


tdracer 21st April 2026 17:40

Seeing multiple reports that the seized vessel was indeed carrying the stuff to make rocket fuel...
Not seen anything 'offical' though.

Lonewolf_50 21st April 2026 17:46


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 12074087)
Seeing multiple reports that the seized vessel was indeed carrying the stuff to make rocket fuel...
Not seen anything 'offical' though.

Might be worth the old "48 hour rule" as early reports are often incomplete, and sometimes even wrong.

Wait, did we get a METAR? :}

ORAC 21st April 2026 17:54

ISW:……

NEW | An Iranian delegation, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, will likely go to Islamabad, Pakistan, for negotiations with the United States on April 22.

Ghalibaf seems to prefer negotiations and has publicly defended the negotiations against Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) backlash. He may nonetheless reject direct negotiations until the United States meets Iranian preconditions, in part because of the fractious nature of the Iranian political establishment at this time.

More Key Takeaways:

Ghalibaf and those defending negotiations remain under significant pressure because the IRGC continues to reject negotiations with the United States and several stated US demands. An unnamed source told Axios that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued formal approval on April 20 for Iran’s participation in a second round of talks despite the IRGC pressure on the negotiating team to reject such talks.

The Iranian delegation may attempt to secure a ceasefire extension. The ceasefire is set to expire in the evening Washington time on April 22, according to US President Donald Trump. Trump has repeatedly stated that he does not want to extend the ceasefire.


langleybaston 21st April 2026 17:59


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12074093)
Might be worth the old "48 hour rule" as early reports are often incomplete, and sometimes even wrong.

Wait, did we get a METAR? :}

METAR? That woke me

Mr Mac 21st April 2026 18:49


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12074093)
Might be worth the old "48 hour rule" as early reports are often incomplete, and sometimes even wrong.

Wait, did we get a METAR? :}

I would agree re 48hrs rule. The Metar comment made me chuckle 🙂
Cheers
Mr Mac

Lonewolf_50 21st April 2026 20:12

ORAC, thanks for that item regarding the trip to Pakistan by some Iranian officials.

Ghalibaf and those defending negotiations remain under significant pressure because the IRGC continues to reject negotiations with the United States and several stated US demands. An unnamed source told Axios that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued formal approval on April 20 for Iran’s participation in a second round of talks despite the IRGC pressure on the negotiating team to reject such talks.
If the talks start, I don't think they'll be easy, nor short.

dead_pan 21st April 2026 20:57


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 12074151)
If the talks start, I don't think they'll be easy, nor short.

Err, they did start, and they were very short...

Annd to cap it all Trump has reportedly "indefinitely" extended the ceasefire, just like he said he wouldn't.

To keep within the mil theme (and the mods happy), this must be taking a huge toll on all the service personnel deployed on this op, especially the USN crews.

ORAC 21st April 2026 21:04

Desperate for an off ramp.

But with the IRGC now jn the driving seat I don’t think he’ll get one….

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....49e2744d60.png

Iranians mocking the Americans waiting for talks….

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5d0fca7589.png

ORAC 21st April 2026 21:11

https://www.globalrecon.net/analysis...1cgld7c7arh751


The Dead Ship Registry

How zombie tankers use the identities of scrapped ships to move sanctioned cargo through the world’s most-watched chokepoint

tanker broadcasting the identity of a scrapped Japanese LNG carrier transited the Strait of Hormuz on March 20, 2026. The vessel’s IMO number belonged to the LNG Jamal, a ship that had been beached at an Indian demolition yard five months earlier. The signal was clean. The identity passed automated screening. The cargo moved.

This is the zombie tanker problem. Vessels are now transiting the world’s most contested chokepoint under the names, IMO numbers, and call signs of ships confirmed destroyed. The technique exploits a structural gap in maritime compliance: screening systems verify IMO numbers against sanctions lists, but they do not cross-reference against demolition records in real time. A vessel broadcasting a dead ship’s credentials will pass most automated checks without triggering manual review.

The zombie is not a one-off. It is a shuttle.….

Lonewolf_50 21st April 2026 21:12

OK, the IRGC is calling the shots in Iran, no talks for the time being. Stay tuned for the next installment.


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