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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 26th Jan 2022 08:35


Could the Irish not put something like a fishing fleet in the area of the exercise to scupper it.

Which is exactly what the fishermen have said they are going to do….


The Russian embassy in Dublin yesterday said it understood the fishing sector’s concerns about the integrity of marine resources but that there was no grounds to believe its naval drills next month would impact the biodiversity of the ocean.

“At the same time we would think that any attempts to interfere with military exercises would be [a] reckless and irresponsible act which could put in harm’s way both sailors and fishermen,” a spokesman said. “All that has been explained to the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation (ISWFPO ).”

Yestereday the head of ISWFPO said the Russian navy was “not welcome” and that fishing vessels would continue to operate in the region as part of a peaceful protest against the six-day military exercise.

Patrick Murphy, ISWFPO chief executive, confirmed he had been contacted by the Russian embassy and told that attempts to interfere with the exercise would be “reckless”.

“We’re not going out there to challenge the Russian navy or take on a warship,” he said. “We’re going fishing in our fishing zones and if they feel like we’re interfering with their activities, tough. We’re not moving and that is our right to peaceful protest.”

Leo Varadkar yesterday urged fishing vessels that plan to peacefully disrupt the Russian navy’s military drills not put themselves at risk……

“I suppose I would just say to them that these are military vessels,” the tanaiste said. “Whatever they choose to do in terms of any protests, just make sure that they don’t put themselves at risk.”

Lonewolf_50 26th Jan 2022 14:46


Originally Posted by minigundiplomat (Post 11175296)
I’m sure the EU will send a navy.

They actually did in the early 1990's, but to the Adriatic in operation SHARP FENCE.
The WEU operation was later merged with a NATO operation - Maritime Guard - to become Operation Sharp Guard.
But as this Irish concern is being presented as a fisheries issue, I doubt the EU would put together an armed force for that.
On the other hand, I will guess that the Irish Coast Guard will deploy a ship to observe or monitor?

Beamr 26th Jan 2022 15:38

There are over 500 fishing vessels of more than 10 metres in length in Ireland. That would make one congested fishing area if their catch would all head to one exercise area.

Source:
Pls type irish fishing fleet in your favorite search engine, that should do it.

Herod 26th Jan 2022 16:00

To misquote Humphrey Bogart: "Of all the places in all the oceans in all the world, they had to sail into mine"

Lonewolf_50 26th Jan 2022 16:40


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11175524)
There are over 500 fishing vessels of more than 10 metres in length in Ireland. That would make one congested fishing area if their catch would all head to one exercise area.

Maybe the fish want to watch the Russian maritime exercise. :E
(Link broke for me, are you sure a character or two didn't drop out?)

Beamr 26th Jan 2022 16:50


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11175547)
Maybe the fish want to watch the Russian maritime exercise. :E
(Link broke for me, are you sure a character or two didn't drop out?)

Thanks, I am apparently facing issues in copy/pasteing the link... however search engine should do it and reveal a document with time date 2019 and additional info of roughly 1500 fishing vessels under 10 meters length. Bit small for the high seas though.

Lonewolf_50 26th Jan 2022 16:53


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11175552)
Thanks, I am apparently facing issues in copy/pasteing the link... however search engine should do it and reveal a document with time date 2019 and additional info of roughly 1500 fishing vessels under 10 meters length. Bit small for the high seas though.

OK, no worries, I've had weird link stuff before.

Less Hair 26th Jan 2022 17:59

White House response to Russia's demands. Transscript:
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-...ence-measures/

NutLoose 26th Jan 2022 18:01

I hope they sent them it written in Welsh…Gaelic….Cherokee… etc etc etc.

fitliker 26th Jan 2022 20:02

They are just toying with them now , fly the rainbow flag from your embassy and the next week all employees are required to get hiv , tb , leprosy tests every three months .

Break a verbal promise ( not one inch eastward as promised by SoS Baker) and all responses to us must now be in writing . In ink ,not crayon .

The Russian responses may get more entertaining maybe even just as funny , another Sputnik ? Maybe they might accidentally show the Russian version of the X47 ,if they have one or two ?

cynicalint 26th Jan 2022 21:38

Quite a meaty bone for the Poseidon fleet to cut their operational teeth on! Stay safe to all involved...

Lonewolf_50 26th Jan 2022 22:58


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11175622)
They are just toying with them now , fly the rainbow flag from your embassy and the next week all employees are required to get hiv , tb , leprosy tests every three months .

Break a verbal promise ( not one inch eastward as promised by SoS Baker) and all responses to us must now be in writing . In ink ,not crayon .

Baker was not an emperor, and the change came well after the administration he was in had left office. American policy making is mercurial due to how often we change administrations (and for that matter, how often internal bickering informs policy formation and revision). (Suggest you read Special Providence to get a grasp on why that is - it's a nice primer on how internal American political forces inform foreign policy).
You may also note that the expansion of NATO was approved by 16 nations, not just one, and if you'll read up on history, that was in 1998. Baker was gone by the end of 1992. (And the Partnership for Peace structure came first, which Russia was invited to participate in, blah blah blah the mid 90's "Peace Dividend" and such).

You may want to also understand that NATO has expanded 8 times in its history since founding in 1949. (You could ask any of my Greek colleagues who the real threat was/is: it was their Eastern "ally" when I was in NATO proper a quarter of a century ago - most of them also felt (or expressed over a coffee) that NATO had intervened on the wrong side in The Former Yugoslavia!).

You may further want to look into in what direction the expansion came from: it was "demand pull" from some states to the east, which received a negative reaction initially (early 90's) when it was initially voiced. Also at the time there was a lot of noise from the European Nations on forming an Independent European Defense Identity, Eurocorps, and so on. A goodly portion of the desire to 'join in' was economic, and the parallel "we want to join the EU" political sentiment tracked a bit with desires for mutual defense assurances.

Your hanging your hat on Baker's verbal remarks is bizarre. (I don't disagree, though, on your point about getting a treaty/protocol agreed in writing if it's something you really want/need).

For Cynicalint: nope, the nukes aren't gonna fly. I'll take that bet to Vegas.
(As an afterthought: if for some reason the shooting starts, the only winners will be in China)

fitliker 27th Jan 2022 03:51

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Sorry for the link , but it does show that not everyone sees the same game . Hence the need for someone to keep score . Even the ancient Babylonians keep accurate notes on clay tablets . Hard to believe they re-negotiated the re-unification of Germany without notes . The Russians have released some scribbles from part of the discussions on re-unification . A Re-unification that Margaret Thatcher warned against . Almost frightening thinking about what she said about the threat to peace such re-unification would bring . They even refused to call it a re-unification as the German neighbours might get nervous .
Almost the definition of prescient.
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

minigundiplomat 27th Jan 2022 05:20


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11175354)
Riiight. Anything meaningful to contribute?

As a neutral nation without formal NATO membership Irish defence needs are an issue for the EU. I’m sorry my post didn’t titillate or entertain you to your perceived level of satisfaction.

ORAC 27th Jan 2022 07:53

Politico article saying experts think Russia will seize Ukraine up to the Dneiper river.

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukra...vasion-europe/

AndySmith 27th Jan 2022 09:04


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11175743)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-matters-today

Sorry for the link , but it does show that not everyone sees the same game . Hence the need for someone to keep score . Even the ancient Babylonians keep accurate notes on clay tablets . Hard to believe they re-negotiated the re-unification of Germany without notes . The Russians have released some scribbles from part of the discussions on re-unification . A Re-unification that Margaret Thatcher warned against . Almost frightening thinking about what she said about the threat to peace such re-unification would bring . They even refused to call it a re-unification as the German neighbours might get nervous .
Almost the definition of prescient.
https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300259933/not-one-inch

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

There was a very good podcast on this subject last month with the author of the book you linked:
https://www.historyextra.com/period/...-mary-sarotte/

dead_pan 27th Jan 2022 10:52


Even the ancient Babylonians keep accurate notes on clay tablets
Its a bit rich the Russians bleating on about some verbal promise when they've comprehensively sh@t on an actual paper agreement they signed in 1994, regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine. I reckon the Yanks and Europeans should point this out at every available opportunity, if they don't already.


Just This Once... 27th Jan 2022 18:27

Baker's verbal sometime in '92 is it?

By '93 the Russian Army tanks were in Moscow shelling their own parliament. Not exactly a glorious period of stability for mother Russia.

Lonewolf_50 27th Jan 2022 18:43


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11175869)
Its a bit rich the Russians bleating on about some verbal promise when they've comprehensively sh@t on an actual paper agreement they signed in 1994, regarding the territorial integrity of Ukraine. I reckon the Yanks and Europeans should point this out at every available opportunity, if they don't already.

Yep, there's more than one angle to look at this from.
While the Ukraine Smoke Screen is up, here's what else is going on: (source is 27 Jan FP situation report, behind a paywall, shared by a friend)

North Korea conducted another missile launch on Thursday, South Korea’s military said in an alert, the sixth round of tests conducted by Pyongyang in this month alone. South Korea said the projectiles are believed to be two short-range ballistic missiles from near the coastal city of Hamhung, North Korea’s second-largest city, on Thursday morning. Experts see the move as North Korea’s effort to gain leverage at the negotiating table if it begins renewed nuclear talks with the Biden administration. The move also comes as North Korea has begun reopening its borders after a harsh two-year coronavirus lockdown.
The crush of tourists and cruise ships descending on North Korea will be a sight to behold

Friday, Feb. 4: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin are set to hold a summit in Beijing.
That's 8 days from today.


Quote of the Week

“What kind of support will Germany send next? Pillows?”

Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko after learning of Germany’s announcement it will send 5,000 military helmets to the Ukrainian armed forces to help defend against a potential Russian invasion
Wait a sec, wasn't he once a heavyweight boxing champ? Now mayor of Kiev? Nice job in your post-sports career, champ! :)

NutLoose 27th Jan 2022 21:16

It’s a live fire exercise.. dangers of

https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/n...tes-wwii-bombs




12pm: The Royal Navy has been criticised for causing damage to the hearing of dolphins, porpoises and whales by detonating explosives.

Scientists say Navy divers have set off submerged bombs that may affect up to 60 animals each time – despite having access to more environmentally friendly methods of neutralising the explosives.

Royal Navy divers have carried out 107 detonations of submerged bombs in the UK over the past decade.

Scientists claim that the vibrations can cause permanent damage to the hearing of animals within one mile of the explosion.

Animals such as dolphins and whales rely heavily on their hearing for navigation and communication, campaigners say.

Jeremy Quin, the defence procurement minister, has said that over the past decade the Ministry of Defence has bought more than 600 disposal systems that can remove submerged explosives from the sea floor without explosions.

The Times reported that none of these disposal systems have been used to detonate bombs in UK waters.

The seabed bombs were dumped by German bombers during the Second World War.

When planning a detonation, divers will ensure that there are no marine mammals in the surrounding area that risk being blown up during the explosion. However, this precaution fails to take into account the fact that the sound of the explosion can damage the hearing of animals within an 18-mile radius.


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