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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

t43562 1st Jul 2022 10:19

"MiG-29 multi-role fighters as part of the unit guard the air borders of Ukraine"


Usertim 1st Jul 2022 10:36

Ukraine ready to start conscripting women.
 
deleted my comments - was not happy with the dates involved (old news) but I will leave the link

https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/iakshcho-...aty-za-kordon/

NutLoose 1st Jul 2022 10:41


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11254481)
A Ka-52 isn't a transport helicopter so maybe a separate incident?

Interesting to see that the remaining Russian troops used 'small craft' to leave the island, presumably because anything big would have attracted the attention of Ukrainian ASM forces?

Several reports early on put it as a transport, but it appears it was escorting the transport helicopters in their ill fated rescue mission, fog of war I suppose.

On a side note I noticed in one of the latest US aid listings a load of boats, I did wonder if they were related to the Island as they say they can be used in close costal waters

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/us...160016510.html

film of them clobbering the island, they also took out a small boat used in the evacuation apparently


Pictures of what was hit and the 5 rescue boats used at the dock.


fitliker 1st Jul 2022 12:54

I fear I may be heading on the wrong path towards peace as recent statements from Dr. Kissinger are congruent to what I have said .
Interesting that very little of what he has said has been reported by Fleet Street papers .
Mercy unto the Merciful


dead_pan 1st Jul 2022 13:27

Not sure what we're looking at hear, or whether it relates to the Kerch bridge:

Imagegear 1st Jul 2022 14:03

This is the bridge, The Russians are using smoke producing trucks to simulate attacks by Ukraine, allowing smoke to drift across the bridge. From other sources it would appear that this is some kind of tear smoke which irritates the eyes, I would expect other non-lethal actions to compliment the exercise. Not only for retreating from Ukraine mainland but also from Crimea in the event of it being overrun.



IG

etudiant 1st Jul 2022 14:10


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11254389)
LOL what rubbish, theres 20K killed/missing from mariopole

Honestly you are dribbling ****.

The UN data is what seems most solid for civilian deaths, but no argument that the numbers could be much worse, given the estimated 6 MM refugees from the war.
These people left because of fear of death.

The Helpful Stacker 1st Jul 2022 14:15


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11254628)
Not sure what we're looking at hear, or whether it relates to the Kerch bridge:
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...SAMuec08A&s=19

Are they trying to utilise a smoke screen to hide a well-known target, in these times of GPS targeting?

etudiant 1st Jul 2022 14:18


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11254476)
Have to admit that you really are a top-level apologist - hope your remuneration reflects this. Even in this innocuous-looking sentence you seek to insert your propaganda. Where do you get the figure of 30 000 Ukrainian KIA ? Isn't it a basic military tenet that attackers are going to suffer much greater losses when attacking an enemy who has had time to prepare defences - this presumably being even more pronounced with unseasoned conscripts.? Or did you perhaps include the 600 children from the Mariupol theatre in this count ?

Senior Ukrainians have said their casualties are 100-200 deaths/day, the war has been going on for well over 100 days and in an artillery war, the defenders suffer comparably to the attackers, as shown at Verdun.

MikeSnow 1st Jul 2022 14:20


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11254647)
The UN data is what seems most solid for civilian deaths

Yes, but that's just what they can confirm with certainty. They don't have access to places like Mariupol to check each recently burried person and determine the cause of death and if they were military or civilian. For that reason, every UN report mentions that they believe the real figures are considerably higher:


OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Izium (Kharkiv region), Popasna, Lysychansk, and Sievierodonetsk (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.

NutLoose 1st Jul 2022 15:11


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11254652)
Senior Ukrainians have said their casualties are 100-200 deaths/day, the war has been going on for well over 100 days and in an artillery war, the defenders suffer comparably to the attackers, as shown at Verdun.

only in the Donbas region since the Russian push.

Tartiflette Fan 1st Jul 2022 15:21


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11254652)
Senior Ukrainians have said their casualties are 100-200 deaths/day, the war has been going on for well over 100 days and in an artillery war, the defenders suffer comparably to the attackers, as shown at Verdun.

Once again you attempt to apply a heavy slant to matters. As said by Nutty, the heavy artillery bombardment over a wide front is recent - only been happening for 25% (?) of the war: even when Mariupol was being reduced to rubble, the numbers of Ukranians killed would have been far less because of protection by the destroyed buildings.

etudiant 1st Jul 2022 16:30


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11254689)
Once again you attempt to apply a heavy slant to matters. As said by Nutty, the heavy artillery bombardment over a wide front is recent - only been happening for 25% (?) of the war: even when Mariupol was being reduced to rubble, the numbers of Ukranians killed would have been far less because of protection by the destroyed buildings.

Maybe so, but reports such as this WSJ piece (https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine...rusukrainenato) suggest that the suffering is equally distributed.
The Ukrainian prohibition on men between 18 and 60 from leaving the country also indicates that manpower is in short supply.

NutLoose 1st Jul 2022 16:34

That is just sensible. Why would you let your male population leave? It's not just military that no doubt requires them, but the whole Countries infrastructure, construction, engineering etc.

Lonewolf_50 1st Jul 2022 18:05


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11254476)
Isn't it a basic military tenet that attackers are going to suffer much greater losses when attacking an enemy who has had time to prepare defences

Depends. Saddam had a long time to prepare defenses in 1990/1991 and that axiom did not fit that situation. Mind you, it wasn't unseasoned conscripts in the attack.

NutLoose 1st Jul 2022 18:09

Air Power had a lot to do with that too. Russia has never managed to rule the air over Ukraine.

BlankBox 1st Jul 2022 18:18

https://thehill.com/opinion/national...-battlefields/

interesting read...

and...
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-puti...ma-law-1720957

gonna be a hot summer...

NutLoose 1st Jul 2022 18:34

Thanks Blankbox, a good read.

Lonewolf_50 1st Jul 2022 18:34


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11254744)
Air Power had a lot to do with that too. Russia has never managed to rule the air over Ukraine.

Yes, having air superiority/supremacy sure is an advantage.

Tartiflette Fan 1st Jul 2022 21:16

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-puti...ma-law-1720957

I know nothing about the Russian legal/military system, but needing to pass new laws to repair damaged equipment ? Even if this was legally the case I would have expected Putin to ignore it.


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