I was thinking that. A S/N may tell you which factory it left and when, if the records are available, but not much beyond that unless the logistic records are better than I expect.

Aviation Content:

As a photographer who loves perfect reflections on water I think this is absolutely stunning imagery, plus those gorgeous autumnal tones.

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I would have thought the Poles would be been pretty forthright with their response if there was a strong suspicion the missile had originated from Russian territory.

Russia's strenuous denials last night were noteworthy. They're sh*t-scared of unintentionally drawing NATO into the conflict.

CNN: Ukraine tells US, allies it attempted missile interception near Poland.

Ukraine informed the U.S. and its allies that it tried to intercept a Russian missile near and in the timeframe of the missile strike on Poland on Nov. 15, CNN reported, citing a U.S. official.

It is currently unclear whether the missile that hit Poland was the same missile that Ukraine’s military attempted to intercept.

Serial numbers ? Surely there are multiples of NATO aircraft tracking all flignts/missiles .What can be more clear than that ?

Yes, but then last night it was being pinned on Russia, so either those in charge were not being briefed on the source or there were other reasons.
I would also doubt they would ever release NATO aircraft tracking data either as it will give Russia an indication of our tracking capabilities etc. so it’s who you believe, NATO, Russia or Ukraine, as it is their word only you would have to go on.
At least serial numbers can hopefully nail it down as factual.

I would have thought beyond serial numbers, the type of debris found would indicate where it came from - e.g. S-300, it's Ukranian; Iskander, it's Russian (unless it's neither and came from Belarus....)

Fairly unlikely as Ukraine is still using exclusively Soviet-built missiles in the larger categories ( S 300 etc ) which the damage seems to indicate this was.

Am I missing something fundamental here but surely it is easy to determine if the missile that hit Poland is the remains of an "offensive" one, or the remains of a "defensive" one.? Is it a missile or an anti-missile missile.

Exactly what I've been thinking. Too many reports saying 'most likely' and 'probably' etc..

For Heaven's sake, surely it was inevitable that sooner or later some ordnance wandered over the NATO border by mistake. It hit nothing of strategic importance nd all the signs are an error. By what side is irrelevant, Russian has absolutely no interest in blowing up Polish farm carts so surely best to leave out the hystrionics and assume no malice where error/blunder is far more likely.
In any case one instance of a couple of Polish farmers and a tractor most assuredly do NOT justify any escalation or retaliation unless malice can be attributed.
Sure, it may well cause alarm but NATO needs to be very calm and collected over such events lest the more hot-headed among us see this as an opportunity to do something daft.
The Ukraine is no more unable to fire an errant missile than is Russia - we would do well to remember that and act accordingly.

Thank God this time we seem to have seen sense but the potential in a more unfortunately placed error is all too clear to see.

We need very calm and pragmatic heads just now, fortunately the NATO responses adhered to that commendably in this case while the Russian answer was predictably wild and irrational.

Great care needs to be taken lest the orcs get ahead of themselves one day and are too blinded by their own bile and dogma that they can't see a way back.

Reminds me of the Belgique Mig 23 incident, an unfortunate accident no one could have predicted.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...armhouse-65521

Recently - due to shortages - Russia has sometimes been using any type of missile as an offensive weapon i.e. S 3oo which is ground - air as ground-ground.

Thank you. That seems fair judging by what else we have seen these past months.

I am not sure about any cover up conspiracy but where that missile landed is the longitude of Lviv industrial zone and the latitude of central Kyiv, which is interesting. Check Denys channel on youtube for the exact numbers.

Polish missile screwup?
 

A Ukrainian blogger and airline pilot Denys Davydov has highlighted the coincidence that the missile that landed in Poland had the same latitude as Kyiv and the same longitude as Lviv.

Cock up is always more probable than conspiracy. Zelensky is also asking for access to the fragments of the missile which currently is being refused. Most unusual. The size of the crater seems overly large for a missile that was intended as a missile interceptor. I would have presumed that a small warhead would have been desirable in a high velocity / high manoeuvrability weapon. There's little point in lugging around a large amount of explosive if you can't hit the target.

I think you have the answer, when is it going to be picked up by the mainstream media? How much does western intelligence actually know and are prepared to reveal, I suspect it is an acceptance that it was a Russian careless mistake and are covering it up in the short term as they don't want to invoke Nato into a war with Russia on a cockup.

If, as alleged, it is the short 90 odd km range version, how did it get there?

The most important thing is, can we form a conspiracy theory here, and how useful would that be!

Or, we’re all still alive because luckily no one pushed a button or pulled a trigger.

From Belarus? It is in range, that would then open a can of worms as to who you take action against, if it was launched from Belarus by Russians, do you take action against Belarus or Russia?
I cannot understand the reluctance in letting Ukraine see the remains of the missile, that could easily be done in Poland.

Map showing the range, assuming it was the shorter range version and not the longer one.


The question I have and no one appears to have hit on it is...

If it was launched to take down a Russian missile, where is the other missile?

The way to stop it is not to give defensive measures as some will always get through, but to give Ukraine the long range ability to strike the airfields, the bombers and the ships that are launching these missiles both in Crimea and the Black Sea.
Until you do that they will lob them over with impunity, It is rather like the artillery battles, it was only when the west provided the Himars and various accurate artillery was that threat negated, as they were able to take out the supply routes and the weapons themselves.

..

There is much talk from the NATO members that it is time for Russia to end this war and get out, so maybe pitchrollig for pressure on both sides to negotiate some kind of deal. Be that the case, then it would be inconvenient in some eyes to find that Russia lobbed a missile into Poland, even by mistake. Zelensky of course would love NATO to be drawn into the confict but NATO is trying very hard (some say too hard) not to be and this all muddies the waters around the origins of the Poland missile hit.

To me it looks uncomfortably like western powers putting personal priorities ahead of correct action.
We have seen Erdogan twice face down Putin and it was western weakness that let him think he culd stroll into Ukraine in the first place. It is about time for something sterner just so he actually believes that he could make things worse by annoying the NATO alliance.

Last time somebody fiddled with underwater pipelines and cables, somebody's bridge blew up.

Either way Russia is totally responsible for this incident. She is the only one raining missiles onto Ukraine in the first place.

If one gets bashed and dented and flies off at an angle, or if a Ukrainian missile goes astray, it makes little difference to the overall picture.

Red on Red, love it :D Serves them right for trying to destroy those boats.

There's absolutely no reason for Ukrainians to have denied responsibility to Zelenskyy if they were responsible. Poland and NATO should allow Ukraine access to be a part of the investigation. Without total transparency tensions will rise which would play straight into Putin's hands. Keep pushing Zelenskyy and eventually they will listen to you!

Appeal to soldiers of Belarus if they are forced to invade with Russia on how to surrender and the treatment they will receive.

Excellent thread, with an even better informative embedded thread by Galeev.

. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the notorious Wagner mercenary group, says that he is not currently recruiting anally raped prisoners but wants to create a separate "cock division" to ensure that other convict soldiers do not have to serve with such untouchable outcasts……

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...235807744.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...511924232.html

Spectacular footage: Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles shot down within seconds over Kyiv Oblast on Nov. 15. First is audible explosion and glow on horizon, second a clear view of interception by German Iris-T air defense system.

Snows are arriving in Lyiv

Brilliant ORAC, thanks. We need to give Ukraine more defensive systems.

Ukraine has struck an airfield in Crimea, 150KM from Kherson.

Retired Belarusian Lt Colonel calling on the military to mutiny. it is old published in March, but still, what a man.

Is he still among the living? (I hope so).
The line that really stood out to me was "This is not our war"

It appears so, lives in Poland and is a successful businessman

https://www.txtreport.com/life/2022-...HyFCn0k0c.html

Sniper at work

US allegedly running low on some weapons and ammunition to transfer to Ukraine:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/p...ine/index.html

This wouldn’t be the first time this has occurred since February.

Then again, it’s something that’s been well practiced by certain Western powers over the past eighty or so years.

I guess OPSEC is a lost cause, and our dear friends in China are checking off their pre operations check list as they read that article.