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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Ninthace 12th Nov 2022 15:31


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11329725)

Perhaps they get a lot of duds? :ouch:

ORAC 12th Nov 2022 16:34

When you let HIMARS range dictate which town will be your regional "capital"....

“The Russian-appointed "authorities" of the Kherson region say that the "capital" of the region under their control will be Henichesk.”


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....4d7b61741.jpeg

ORAC 12th Nov 2022 19:14

:}

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to exchange 10 captured mobiks for a raccoon, which was stolen from the Kherson Zoo by the heroically retreating second army of the world.

ORAC 12th Nov 2022 20:09

FINDERS KEEPERS: RU’s hasty retreat from Kherson left hundreds of tanks, fighting vehicles, self-propelled guns, trucks, vehicles and equipment scattered in UKR fields. Each will be refurbished, re-painted in UKR colors and put to use against the Russian army….

ORAC 12th Nov 2022 20:28

Russians on TV decide how they will destroy NATO and occupy Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania.

GlobalNav 12th Nov 2022 22:44


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11329800)
And hopefully someone will fit him with cemented boots and drop him in the Black Sea

No need to take the time - one size fits all. There must a few hundred of his henchmen who should go swimming with him.

NutLoose 12th Nov 2022 22:49

Another recaptured helicopter, mi-24 this time


fdr 13th Nov 2022 06:18


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11329965)
Another recaptured helicopter, mi-24 this time



https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...DTrYzgrZYsAAAA

wish I could unsee someone hanging off a rotor blade. The 24 has an articulating head, the droop stops have what... a... 100:1 moment arm to the weight suspended off the end of the blade. the guy weights X, the force on the stop is 100 x X... hope they checki ti out thoroughly before goign aviating.

turning a blade backwards... ack.

ORAC 13th Nov 2022 07:19

With a helo abandoned seemingly intact it ma6 have been sabotaged in a myriad of ways, so I wouldn’t try an£ fly it till it had had a detailed inspection and service anyway.

ORAC 13th Nov 2022 08:35

Wagner's Prigozhyn in a Q&A admits to the execution of a captured convict Evgeniy Nuzhin and says he enjoyed the show.

Wagner's GREY ZONE channel which originally posted the video of the execution of a convict now justifies it with a long rant saying that being accused of brutality at a war is similar to getting a speeding ticket in a car race.

ORAC 13th Nov 2022 08:54

Unfortunately not in production to provide to Ukraine.

"Developed in under a year, Stryker #Leonidas was recently field demonstrated at a U.S. government testing site successfully disabling individual drone targets & swarms of drones"~ Epirus #HighPowerMicrowave #GaN


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c631ad527.jpeg


ORAC 13th Nov 2022 09:19

Doubt he made it home. Is that an Su-24?

Striking a Russian plane, Bakhmut direction.

NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 10:43

Chornobaivka aerodrome With lots of Russian scrap on it




NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 10:53

YES!! Remember those Ukrainian Special forces I mentioned crossing the Dnipro with the Russians…. PANIC MODE on :ok:


Wokkafans 13th Nov 2022 11:50


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11329847)
:}

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are ready to exchange 10 captured mobiks for a raccoon, which was stolen from the Kherson Zoo by the heroically retreating second army of the world.






NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 14:29

According to this Russia has acquired a HIMARS missile to study in their top secret facility, my garage is better equipped than their lab…



ORAC 13th Nov 2022 15:18

Modern and valuable 48Ya6-K1 “Podlet K1” low-altitude S-band surveillance radar was left behind by #Russian forces at Chornobaivka airport, Kherson.

Expected to be have been made unoperable but time will tell.


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....bd0676adb.jpeg



https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....eab33e400.jpeg

NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 15:33

More on the two helis, they will possibly be Christmas Tree’d


NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 16:08

It looks like the Russians are attempting to evacuate some from Nova Kakhovka while they hastily prepare defence’s, it has also been reported they have attacked Ukrainian vehicles in the area. Ukraine may be attempting to take it, shelling has been going on, this would give Ukraine control of the eastern end of the Dam and Crimea’s water supply.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russ...itter#Echobox=1668289603





Beamr 13th Nov 2022 17:51

Yesrerdays news on UAF offensive on west bank of Dnipr along Kinburn peninsula is evolving, Russian sources claim Ukrainians have captured the village of Herois’ke.

As Nutloose posted earlier the russkies had fortified the shores but apparently Ukrainians are taking advantage of open flanks from the peninsula direction.
waiting for confirmations but this should be good, showing Ukrainians are capable of ambhibious warfare in which russkies haven't quite succeeded (remembering their poor performance in crossing rivers earlier).



MPN11 13th Nov 2022 18:33

I see a future of outflanking and encirclement by UKR. The RU just know head-on assaults., without much battlefield agility.

NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 21:31

I wonder if this is Ukraines way of hinting at the peninsula assault, and their capabilities.



NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 21:34

She has finally woken up to the fact their capabilities are sh*t and Ukraine has the resources of the free world behind them.


NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 21:39

A Russian Prisoner recruited as a mercenary and shipped to Ukraine as cannon fodder eventually captured as a POW and released in a POW exchange returned to Russia and is then executed with a Sledge Hammer.


NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 21:44


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11330309)
Modern and valuable 48Ya6-K1 “Podlet K1” low-altitude S-band surveillance radar was left behind by #Russian forces at Chornobaivka airport, Kherson.
Expected to be have been made unoperable but time will tell.

And some, defiantly made inoperable.

fdr 13th Nov 2022 22:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11330460)
A Russian Prisoner recruited as a mercenary and shipped to Ukraine as cannon fodder eventually captured as a POW and released in a POW exchange returned to Russia and is then executed with a Sledge Hammer.
https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/...DQsZXAtpcsAAAA

That should have an interesting effect on recruitment and on prisoners wanting to be returned to the loving arms of dear mother Russia.
Now, who uses the term "satan"? Wagner needs to be classified as a Terrorist Organisation, even if only the girls of the Scandinavian, Baltic and Italy have the guts to do so.

ORAC 13th Nov 2022 22:42

The reality here is that the West is saying that they don’t wish to step up military production to any great extent because of the cost. Meanwhile, the Russians are beginning to mobilise their industry……

Like it or not, this war is now a battle of industrial systems - like previous large wars. The post Cold War ‘small, exquisite, periodic and expensive’ approach to weapons procurement in the West is over. We just haven’t fully realized that yet.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...358390272.html


Wokkafans 13th Nov 2022 22:43


Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11330470)
That should have an interesting effect on recruitment and on prisoners wanting to be returned to the loving arms of dear mother Russia.
Now, who uses the term "satan"? Wagner needs to be classified as a Terrorist Organisation, even if only the girls of the Scandinavian, Baltic and Italy have the guts to do so.

Apparently he volunteered for the exchange as Wagner were threatening to kill his family back in Russia.

Wokkafans 13th Nov 2022 22:44


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11330478)
The reality here is that the West is saying that they don’t wish to step up military production to any great extent because of the cost. Meanwhile, the Russians are beginning to mobilise their industry……

Like it or not, this war is now a battle of industrial systems - like previous large wars. The post Cold War ‘small, exquisite, periodic and expensive’ approach to weapons procurement in the West is over. We just haven’t fully realized that yet.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...358390272.html


Meanwhile Rishi plans to cut the UK defence budget.

NutLoose 13th Nov 2022 22:44

This is interesting and makes some sense to me or am I reading it wrong?

I do wonder if this is the trap everyone was worried about, Russia was never going to be able to realistically hold the far bank in any numbers as they would be subjected to accurate artillery and HIMARS strikes, so pulling back a large part of their forces to cities to preserve them makes sense.
Ukraines problem now is with Russia withdrawn across the Dnipro and having destroyed most of the crossing points, if Ukraine crosses in force to liberate cities and cut off the main supply route, they will themselves be subjected to the same issues Russia had, ie an in ability to supply the front line due to limitations of getting supplies, munitions and replacement across the river.




WB627 13th Nov 2022 23:43


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11330282)
According to this Russia has acquired a HIMARS missile to study in their top secret facility, my garage is better equipped than their lab…

https://twitter.com/MsOksanna/status...CjzZPJhpUsAAAA

DreamWorks have already signed the film rights

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....3382545d3d.png



Ninthace 14th Nov 2022 00:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11330483)
This is interesting and makes some sense to me or am I reading it wrong?

I do wonder if this is the trap everyone was worried about, Russia was never going to be able to realistically hold the far bank in any numbers as they would be subjected to accurate artillery and HIMARS strikes, so pulling back a large part of their forces to cities to preserve them makes sense.
Ukraines problem now is with Russia withdrawn across the Dnipro and having destroyed most of the crossing points, if Ukraine crosses in force to liberate cities and cut off the main supply route, they will themselves be subjected to the same issues Russia had, ie an in ability to supply the front line due to limitations of getting supplies, munitions and replacement across the river.





https://twitter.com/Conquerors1011/s...36023558168576

Depenfs on the timing and place of the crossing surely, and the size of the bridgehead and the rate of advance. For example, a crossing in winter when the rive freezes would give many more possibilities of crossing. Cross higher or lower and outflank the Russian defences. A rapid advance on a relatively narrow front could cut the Russian supply lines forcing them to rely on re supply through Crimea. The world is the Ukrainian’s mollusc if they can maintain the initiative and rely on manoeuvre.

rattman 14th Nov 2022 04:32

Ukrainian sources are saying they have taken control of a Geroiskoe and russian sources are reporting heavy gunfire around Hola Prystan (night when typing so only have the sound to go on), both on east side of Dnipro

Beamr 14th Nov 2022 06:15


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11330536)
Ukrainian sources are saying they have taken control of a Geroiskoe and russian sources are reporting heavy gunfire around Hola Prystan (night when typing so only have the sound to go on), both on east side of Dnipro

To fit this into the situation, Geroiskoe (in Ukrainian Herois'ke) is in the Kinburn peninsula. Hola Prustan is on the Dnipr delta, distance in between these villages is roughly 50km demanding the Russkies to react on a threat from left flank. There goes the Russian natural defence line of Dniepr...

fdr 14th Nov 2022 06:35


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11330548)
To fit this into the situation, Geroiskoe (in Ukrainian Herois'ke) is in the Kinburn peninsula. Hola Prustan is on the Dnipr delta, distance in between these villages is roughly 50km demanding the Russkies to react on a threat from left flank. There goes the Russian natural defence line of Dniepr...


The good news though is that the RuZZians have excellent defensive lines available at low risk, around Rostov. They actually speak the same language there, like the same god king master strategist, and could do with the economic boost of having the RuZZian forces buying hamburgers there instead of being turned into hamburger.

Tartiflette Fan 14th Nov 2022 08:09


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11330478)
The reality here is that the West is saying that they don’t wish to step up military production to any great extent because of the cost. Meanwhile, the Russians are beginning to mobilise their industry……

Like it or not, this war is now a battle of industrial systems - like previous large wars. The post Cold War ‘small, exquisite, periodic and expensive’ approach to weapons procurement in the West is over. We just haven’t fully realized that yet.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...358390272.html

I'm not sure how informed and in context Ryan's quote is, and how much just generalisation. I recall reading that Himars production was going to be increased considerably- although taking over 12 months (?) to implement. There is not only the question of replacing US stocks, but considerable new orders from all over have been received. The same applied to NLAW's and probably Javelin as well. You can then add to this the intentions (?) of many states to increase their defence expenditure as a regular budgetary item, plus the existing pre-conflict agreements that numerous states not fulfilling the 2% NATO contribution would implement plans to do so.

Having never been involved in military procurement, I don't know how you overcome the problem that after the initial orders - unlike supermarket-biscuits - you cannot rely on any new orders for perhaps years, which gives big problems about ordering parts with long lead-times, keeping skills up-to-date and having expensive factory space taken up by assembly-lines for non-moving product.

ORAC 14th Nov 2022 08:17

General Staff: Russia amasses troops near Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Russian forces are bringing more troops and building fortifications around Melitopol in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the General Staff reported on Nov. 13.

ORAC 14th Nov 2022 08:33

Rybar by now isn't even particularly shy of showing exactly where Ukraine might strike next, which is the Zaporizhzhia direction. What's funny is zero mention of what Russia might do to counter this move.

Almost as if it is game over.

NutLoose 14th Nov 2022 09:09

More on the Nuclear power plant region.





Ninthace 14th Nov 2022 09:16


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11330606)
Rybar by now isn't even particularly shy of showing exactly where Ukraine might strike next, which is the Zaporizhzhia direction. What's funny is zero mention of what Russia might do to counter this move.

Almost as if it is game over.

In the context of isolating Crimea, there appears to be only overland 3 supply routes. One is already very restricted and all of them look very vulnerable on the map at least.
Dominating Melitopol would block the remaining 2.


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