I'm genuinely missing something here. Has there been a slow down of arms transfers to Ukraine or a weakening of sanctions?

Confusious : More regarding our lack of response to what occurred on Polish territory. That was an opportunity missed to send a very strong message!

Thanks. :ok:

It would be interesting to know how close Putin's regime is to being in serious trouble. As far as I can work out, a sizeable proportion of Russian warstock has been expended, and their manufacturing capability has something like a 3 to 5 year lead time to replenish it. There are growing signs that many young men, perhaps the most capable and able, are leaving Russia and moving to countries like Georgia and Uzbekistan. The prices for rented apartments in Tbilisi, for example, have risen by around 200% to 300% over the past few months, driven by the influx of Russians escaping the draft, or persecution for their views.

We're also seeing evidence that a significant amount of Russian materiel is defective, from poor storage, poor maintenance and even indications of large scale manufacturing fraud. Russian troops seem to be generally poorly equipped, especially the most recent batch of conscripts, and I doubt they have been well-trained either - we've already seen how poor the operational capability was of supposedly top notch Russian troops, at places like Hostomel, earlier in this war. Conditions are now getting to be pretty grim as winter sets in, and everything I've seen seems to show that Ukrainian troops are better equipped, better trained, have a much greater committent to their cause, than Russian troops.

What is not in the public domain, as far as I'm aware, is any reliable assessment of the ability of Putin to stay in power. There must be a fair level of dissent within Russia already, so how long can Putin keep a lid on that, I wonder?

I read an article where they said the lack of equipment for the mobilised was down to fraud, the person in charge of it all had purchased enough for a warehouse full and pocketed the rest, at inspection time everything tallied, next warehouse inspection the contents of the first had already been shipped to it, so again everything tallied, and so it went on.. ship inspect ship..

Very intriguing, in both senses of the word, if true…

A pro-Russian channel with decent authority, Obraz Budushego, suggests Kremlin is getting worked up about the possibility of a Ukrainian advance on Crimea in spring. Critics of the war are being suppressed to prepare for more "difficult decisions" in the near future.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....572197534d.png
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What concerns me is a repeat of the GW1 to GW2 scenario, where an initial failure to remove a despot following the invasion of another sovereign state led to another major conflict a few years later. As long as Putin and his cronies remain in power, Russia will remain a rogue state. It seems possible, perhaps even likely, that Russia could de-escalate the war with Ukraine, simply as a means to allow them to build up their forces ready for another go in few years time.

That strategic pause to rearm was the talking heads comment recently... How he assumed that would be acceptable to anyone else outside of the crimilin is odd.

The only way that Russia gets let off the leash would be if reliable security guarantees were provided to Ukraine to assure their sovereignty, which is what every other former CIS state needs as big brother is a bit of a bully, and rather loose with the truth. Ukraine was after such a guarantee, which is all that NATO is in the end, and that was used as one of the excuses by Russia to go and behave badly once more, as they did in Grozny, multiple times, and multiple other cities and states. So, the peace to rearm only arises by Ukraine getting the guarantee that was a trigger for Russias paranoid psycho brutality, and this is agreeable, how exactly? Ukraine has every reason to be cautious of assertions of integrity by the rest of the world; to our shame, we provided a guarantee to facilitate the removal of nuclear weapons, and then reneged on that parsing words in a manner last seen from Clinton; "well, that depends on what the "the" means in that context..." Shame on us all, and to those that consider that their inconvenience is insufferable, our own leaders led to this by their own lack of moral fibre in keeping their word. Ukraine relying on words is a dangerous assumption of any integrity remaining in our tic-toe, Facebook self centred, egocentric society. Ukraine needs munitions and systems to do what we collectively failed to do, as our collective leaders had yellow streaks circling inside their bodies trying to locate a spine.:mad:

The more I think about this, the more I think that any viable peace deal has to include an acceptance from Russia that Ukraine may join NATO. That's the only meaningful reassurance any Russian administration could give that there won't be a rematch. Without that (and I'm not sure it's achievable) I think we're heading for another uneasy standoff...

I do not think there is any comparison between the current situation and the two Gulf Wars. GW1 was a clear case of agression agaist a sovereign country and the US did a good job in welding together an international coalition to expel Saddam. Bush senior was very careful not to exceed the mandate of UN Resolution 678. In doing so, I believe he was legally correct even though the removal of Saddam might, ultimately, have been a good thing.

In 2003, Bush junior started an unncessary war on very dubious grounds - so who was the agressor in this latter case? I see no parallel.

In the case of the war in Ukraine, any cessation of hostilities without first expelling all Russian forces from the occupied regions will clearly give Putin time to re-arm and re-coup his position before agressing yet again.

According to all the TV reports the Russians have shipped all the troops they managed to evacuate up to support the Donetsk front. That means troops in Kherson ar3 thin on the ground. A push from both the west and north could put the UAF on the approaches to Crimea.

Ukraine has launched a massive attack on Russian-occupied cities in Kherson Oblast. This includes:

- Kakhovka
- Oleshky
- Velyka Lepetykha
- Hornostaivka
- Rubinavka
- Skadovsk
- Askaniya-Nova
- Novotroiske

Ukraine is absolutely determined to rattle Russian troops in this area.


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Thread detailing inspection and damage to the Nordstream pipeline.

Twitter

Reality starting to seep through…..


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Ukraine says military operation underway on left bank of Dnipro River.

Ukraine's Southern Operational Command said that the operation had been launched on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, and a storm in the sea is helping Ukrainian troops to liberate this territory.

With the temperature dropping rapidly, and many civilians without power, does anyone know of plans to send portable generators out to Ukraine? I imagine the military of the various nations have some pretty big ones.

I was thinking along the same lines, but I suspect the logistics of fuelling them is a bigger problem to tackle. If Ukraine can get over to the left bank of the Dnipro near Kherson and then move north, pushing Russians out of that region then they may be able to recapture the big power station at Zaporizhzhia. That used to supply 20% of Ukraine's power, so if they could get that back on line then it would be a better bet than a few tens of thousands of gen sets.

Big power stations are not much use without a distribution network. Big transformers to get from generated voltage to transmission voltage , as high as 275 kV, and back down again. Switching yards, power pylons and wires are also needed. Some bits are easier to renew than others so it will depend on exactly what has been damaged, where.

Multiple generators producing power at the use voltage are much easier to connect to small groups of buildings, provided you do not need to network them, or take the power far from where it was generated.

N

I agree, but Zaporizhzhia can generate 5,7000MW, it's the largest power station in the whole of Europe. The biggest portable generators top out at around 18kW, the biggest truck mounted generators top out at about 1.5MW. The sums are not in favour of using even big truck mounted generators (and by big I mean artic sized) as thousands would be needed to generate as much as Zaporizhzhia. If the connections to the Ukrainian power grid can be fixed, then I suspect that is less work than trying to find and ship thousands of generators, and find a way to keep them fuelled and maintained until next spring.

Is not relying on one big station far too vulnerable? One good missile and you are bereft. Distributed networks, however clumsy, are far harder to destroy.

The power station in question has had a team of international safety experts based there for some weeks now, just to try and act as a deterrent to either side bombing the place. I believe that Russia has agreed not to (although I'm not sure that's worth much), but there could be a case for putting the Zaporizhzhia power station under the control of a neutral state, just because of the immense consequences of bombing Europe's largest nuclear power plant. It would make Chernobyl look small by comparison if that were to happen.

These are what they need.

https://www.ft.com/content/ba6bd46a-...a-43db76e69936

As for joining NATO when they eject Russia, if that isn’t a viable goer due to parts of NATO not agreeing then perhaps permanent bases with NATO aircraft in country at say a couple of airfields etc may deter them.

There would be no need to join NATO if the UN actually abided by Art. 27(3) and reverted to historical precedent on the meaning of the words, that there is actually no Veto power where the PM that is wanting to "just say No", when they are one of the belligerents are automatically required to abstain from a vote, and that abstention is not nor should it ever have been considered a Veto. That is what the rule says, yet here we are today as the UN is such a dysfunctional system they selectively apply the rules and then feign disappointment that the rule that they misapply stops them having to make a decision. I would contend that the UN as it is run at present is a clear and present danger to civilisation, and needs to be replaced with an institution that actually does the one thing it was supposed to do.

Until then, there is always Paris NATO, or a collective announcement of UN states that they will defend any country that is attacked by [Fill in any term describing Russia, e.g., CIS, RF, Russia, Wish I was a Soviet empire etc...]

They found an abandoned wounded Russian

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germany is, they are also requesting that civilians evacuate from Kherson and Mykoliv

Arresting a couple of Russian soldiers that refuse to take part in the war, watch the film, the cell door in the back of the van has holes in it to allow air in for them to breath, but the outer door has none.. :ugh:

Cling film tents, Russias latest equipment.

Probably to prevent the redirected exhaust gases from escaping

Those Russians caught up in it all.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2022/10/...new-residence/

Lots are, way back in March the U.K. had supplied over 500 alone, Germany has sent over 2400 so far

Nothing like treating your troops well, and this is nothing like treating them well.

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Even private companies are sending rather efficient ones, Here's a story of two that were sent to Ukraine last week with combined total power of 1.2MW by an anonymous Finnish company. Apparently other one is today running a hospital in Kropyvnytskyi and other one is on a flatbed being delivered where ever most needed.

https://fb.watch/gY9zStlzf5/

THE DUMP OF THE UNKNOWN SOLDIER:

Searchers in Kherson have discovered that departing Russians used a local landfill to dump and burn the corpses of their own dead soldiers. Some were burned, others merely buried in trash.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...son-landfillIn


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NATO Parliamentary Assembly now recognizes Russia as terrorist state. All 30 #NATO countries #supported the proposals of the delegation. NATO call for setting up a special tribunal for Russian warcrimes.

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Nice to see the responses to my query about generators. Seems a lot are going out. Of course they can't replace a power station, but if the hospitals and the vulnerable can be helped through the winter it's a huge bonus.

My friend who was in Kherson until Mid September told me of this back in July, I scarcely believed. She said it was happening 2 or 3 times a week and that there were multiple locations , one in the Tavrik district of the city and more on the outskirts.
Sometimes it was a lot for example after the large strike at the airport that resulted in 200 Russian KIA. As she said at the time
"morgues are filled to the fullest ..many body fragments. all this **** they burn"
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Note the bit at the end about medics and engineers - British troops being deployed to Ukraine - something not picked up and reported elsewhere..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2228763.html

Power boss asks Ukrainians to leave the country to ease burden on damaged energy network

Citizens of Ukraine have been advised to leave the country – if they can – to help reduce demand on the energy network.

Ukrainians should consider leaving for “three to four months” as it “will be very helpful to the system”, Maxim Timchenko, the head of Ukraine’s biggest private energy supplier, has said.….

Mr Timchenko suggested that people reducing their energy use would help Ukraine win the war. He said: “If you consume less, then hospitals with injured soldiers will have guaranteed power supply. This is how it can be explained that, by consuming less or leaving, they also contribute to other people.”

Fixing the damaged infrastructure is also becoming more difficult as Ukraine has run out of equipment and spare parts. Mr Timchenko called on “partners, government officials, companies and equipment producers to help with the immediate supply of available equipment”….

Meanwhile, Rishi Sunak has visited Ukraine to meet Volodymyr Zelensky, as he announced a new £50m package of air defence support for the country.…

Mr Sunak said: “We are today providing new air defence, including anti-aircraft guns, radar and anti-drone equipment, and stepping up humanitarian support for the cold, hard winter ahead…..

Downing Street said the funding would help provide generators, shelter, water repairs and mobile health clinics, with the UK also sending tens of thousands of extreme-cold winter kits for Ukrainian troops.….

It follows the announcement by defence secretary Ben Wallace earlier this month that more than 1,000 new anti-air missiles would be provided to Ukraine. The UK is also planning to send army medics and engineers.….

And who calls who "Nazi"? Les Misérables have a heck of a choice, get gassed by the home team, or get turned into seagull tucker on the local dump. The PRO and CON columns of that non trivial choice would be interesting to decipher from the natives of the outer states of the federation of light and music.

That is without doubt not actually for real. Just a little internal propaganda to scare the conscripts.

:confused:

​​​​​​​Russian soldier claims there is an evacuation happening in Armiansk, Crimea. In another audio message later, he says they escorted 4 columns. And then also adds that "you will see on 28 [presumably November 28th].