Nice little bridge, shame if something was to happen to it.

The Russians are planning to widen and improve the road over Arabat Spit to improve logistics to the southern area of operations. The route via Armiansk is now in HIMARS range and too dangerous for the Russians to use.


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Luxembourg is sending Humvee's, considering the standing Army is about 1000 and they only have 42 Humvees and about the same number of other vehicles, this is a big deal for them, and hats off to them. heck the country only has a population of 600,000

Looks like holding the NPP might be unsustainable

I maybe wrong but it doesn't actually say they are going into Ukraine...maybe it's to Poland??

i lived in Luxemburg for 2 years and it is a wealthy country with GDP around 45 percent of Ukraines and GDP per capita vastly higher. They did suffer immensely in WW2. Good on them for this help.

A good friend is Ukranian and she has arranged a trailer full of humanitarian relief that set off last weekend from the UK to Kharkiv. There was at least one generator in the shipment.

If anyone reading this thread is in a position to do something similar ...........then pull your finger out and help.

You think these would be ideal and they have 1700 heaters!

https://ljacksonandco.com/product/de...i-fuel-heater/

Plus mobile field kitchens

https://army-uk.com/news_detail.php?id=352

And generators galore.

https://army-uk.com/news_detail.php?id=351

Why on earth are we getting rid of kit that could usefully be donated to Ukraine? Seems barking mad to me.

Says Putin?

You still need people to do the work. I get a feeling that a bit of Mr Timchenko's message got lost in translation.
There have already been millions displaced, some internally and some across the borders.
If more people leave, might that send a signal to Mr Putin that he is succeeding? (not sure, just thinking out loud a little bit).

Power system damage in Ukraine
 

The damage being done to the power system in Ukraine is going to take years to make good.

Downing transmission lines, if the structures are being hit, is significant enough, but there are temporary measures that can be used to replace damaged towers. Damaged conductors are generally pretty easy to repair. But if transformers are being destroyed, that's a whole different game...large power transformers have a lead time measured in years, a price tag well into seven figures, and there is limited global capacity for manufacture. And in Europe, a very large proportion of the raw materials came from ... Ukraine. This war was already impacting the industry supply chain before Putin starting targeting the power system ... now, Ukraine will itself absorb manufacturing capacity to get itself back in shape post-war, whenever that is. And consider too that the rush to renewables had already stretched the supply chain before it all kicked off in Eastern Europe.

Getting mobile generation into damaged areas is important, but it will bring very local relief only. The authorities will have to decide who needs access to this generation, and it will only provide a small part of the lost supply. Someone above mentioned 1.5MVA generators as being the largest available on truck and that sounds about right...but they will only be suitable for the substation at the end of your street (in the UK, these typically operate at 11kV and up to around 1MVA). So good for local housing / schools / small industry, but not much more. A number of such machines would be needed to keep a hospital supplied, but that's before you then think about the diesel supply chain, and the operatives needed to keep it all running.

And one other big factor ... people. The power industry is currently crying out for people globally. Demand (from net zero projects) and lack of supply (power, unfairly, is not seen as a sexy career option) is causing even the big manufacturers to search far and wide for people. And locally in Ukraine, I guess many of the younger men have been moved to the front. As a power engineer, back in January I was imagining spending autumn in Kiev, helping Ukraine get back on its feet ... but there aren't that many of us to go around.

Putin knew exactly what he was doing hitting the grid, and it will take a long time to repair the damage.

For first time in history of #Ukraine War, #Ukrainian Air Force successfully used its German supplied IRIS-T SLM anti-aircraft system to shoot-down a Su-34 strike bomber of #Russian Air and Space Force at #Bakhmut tonight. The Su-34 was heavily armed as you can see here…

Comments on the video say it's an old one, not current.

Uk is sending 3 seakings to Ukraine. Crews have already been trained and first is in country.

Not sure what weapons capability they have if any, but guess they would support or casevac

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63725431

Is it the right time to think about aircraft museum donations, spares on ebay.

I can't post a link, but well worth watching BBC Newsnight's Victoria Derbyshire interview with the Russian ambassador to UK Andrei Kelin last night. Some of the evidence of Russian soldiers' abuse she presented to him was quite shocking, met with the usual evasion and denials. Hard to believe he lives in Britain and watches our news!

The 3 aircraft are ex Royal Navy Mk 5`s that have been operated by Heliops on Portland previously training German aircrews and now Ukranian .... "Dara, Damien and Finlay". Ones up this morning locally while one has already been delivered after a new paint job. Substantial ex MOD Sea King stores held by Heliops which no doubt go with them. Being ex Mk 5`s I believe they are NV capable but in terms or warfare then I think the options are limited.

And tucked away at Cosford ;)

I won't mention the bad practice of dumping parts on the floor instead of getting a rack to put them on, ohhh, just like the empty one next to it..... oops I just did. :E

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...3b430fc4_c.jpg

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/...2b78161b_c.jpg

Heliops appear to have lots of them and spares, I take it they generated three of these.

https://helioperations.co/somerton


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https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1229e91758.jpg
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Work it out - that’s between 50-100K casualties every month since mobilisation started.

As to train8ng up new instructors, good luck with that - unless they’ve got a zombie recruitment programme…

Russia is planning a second wave of partial mobilisation over the winter of 2022/23 but lacks the capacity for a general mobilisation, according to the independent Russian news website Verstka…..

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...451083776.html

A bit of coherent talk from Twitter, is it?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...045861890.html

(military aviation + Ukraine conflict content)

https://twitter.com/LivFaustDieJung/status/1595206514045861890

The thing that REALLY worries me is when the damage to Ukrainian infrastructure becomes so great that Ukraine has to consider taking major action outside its borders. There is some evidence that they may have been making small attacks, sabotaging facilities in Russia, but no positive proof that this hasn't been done by Russians that are opposed to the war. Kyiv is now without power, Russia having just knocked it out.

Russia seems to believe that they can get Ukraine to stop opposing their invasion by doing this. My reading of the runes is that Ukraine will do no such thing, every time Russia ramps up attacks it just seems to make Ukraine even more determined. I fear that, sooner or later, there will be a Ukrainian attack on a major Russian city. I think it's naive to assume that Ukraine isn't busy developing and building long range weapons with the capability to do this. Until now they've stuck firmly to a policy of just defending their own sovereign territory, but how long is that policy going to hold out?

I'm sure that a fair bit of the aid being given to Ukraine is dependent on assurances that Ukraine will not escalate their defence efforts beyond their own borders, but if the situation becomes desperate enough this winter, then who knows what they will do?

BREAKING: EU parliament votes in favour of labelling Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism

Do we let Putin destroy Ukraine or do we show some ball$ and provide Ukraine with the means to hit Russian infrastructure?

Or even..

About time. Now for the rest to follow suit.

Vlad has taken the low road, and ended up being declared a terrorist state. It is important for Ukraine to have greater range of their munitions, to protect those from Russian counter battery, but Ukraine cannot race Vlad to the bottom, that risks the coalition of support that exists for Ukraine to prevail against Vlad the impaler.

Ukraine needs to win in Ukraine, against the invader, they don't need to be attacking Russian civilians, after all the Russians have already a much worse issue, they have to wake up and look at themselves in the mirror for the next few generations, and know that what looks back is the cause of the failure of their nation, and of what will soon be a distant memory, the Russian Federation. They have no one else to blame.

Just to be clear, I wasn't suggesting attacking Russian civilians as such, but their infrastructure. Granted, there may unfortunately be civilian casualties among the personnel.

I would imagine hitting Russian substations etc would cause them more grief that Ukraine, at least Ukraine has the west to supply parts for the damaged sub stations. I would imagine a lot of the russian stuff is western supplied.

It's not just a sponsor. Russia is a terrorist state.

Thanks, EU ... a small step forward in recognising the reality.

Now, can we see more sanctions to seriously cripple Putin's evil regime? No, not just the oligarchs: I'm talking about total isolation from ANYTHING that could benefit the RU. Can more be done?

The more I read about the strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure with winter upon them, the more I think that the time is fast approaching for physical NATO intervention. A terrorist state as declared by the European Parliament, endless war crimes and the now suffering of innocent millions throughout the winter. Get Ukraine into NATO and blast Putin and his rotten regime out of their country. Missed opportunity with the stray missile, but the time to stop pussy-footing has arrived.

Much as I've been very reluctant for the West to get involved in yet another conflict on foreign soil, I am seriously worried that this view is going to gain more traction over the coming weeks and months. It frankly terrifies me if it were to happen, as our (as in the West's) track record of engaging in military action in foreign lands isn't exactly a glowing recommendation for the idea.

The multibillion dollar question is knowing how Russia might react if the West were to directly intervene, or even just give Ukraine longer range weapons that could strike deep within Russia. I frankly do not trust any of our assessments of Russian capability, as the past 9 months have proved, beyond doubt, that every one of our assessments has been completely wrong. If we can have been so wrong about their military capability, what else have we seriously misjudged about Russia?

The major fear is that the madmen in the Kremlin may choose to do the unthinkable, and use their nuclear weapons. Some assessments of the remaining Russian weapon capability are suggesting that they have few conventional long range missiles left, and at least two reports suggest that long range missiles that landed in Ukraine, but had no warheads, were dummy nukes, perhaps fired as decoys, perhaps fired out of desperation. This war is evolving into a massively more serious phase now, with Russia under severe sanctions, with badly depleted and poorly trained and equipped land forces, having been declared a terrorist state and having expended most of its warstock of reasonably capable conventional weapons. There has to be a risk that the Kremlin may decide they have nothing to lose by using tactical nukes, and that could well be precipitated by the West upping the ante and taking more direct action.

I would not like having to sit around a table in whatever sort of decision conference decides on these things, it seems an almost intractable problem, with no good outcomes.

Much as I've been very reluctant for the West to get involved in yet another conflict on foreign soil, I am seriously worried that this view is going to gain more traction over the coming weeks and months.

Absolutely, and I'm one of them. I'm getting to the point where I'm thinking that if Russia wants a real war (and they are certainly looking for one now) then let's show them we are prepared to give them one. That in itself may convince Putin's mates that it's time to call it a day.

Russia remaking the Godfather…. Badly…

Prigozhin sent the European Parliament a sledgehammer in a violin case with an engraved logo of"Wagner" and traces of "blood" on the handle.

This is the Putin's world, that Ukrainians are fighting alone, giving their lives to stop.


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It seems an incredible contradiction to me that it is deemed 'acceptable' for Ruzzia to destroy the power, food and water supplies, housing etc all over a nation but for that nation to respond by damaging any infrastructure in Ruzzia it is thought beyond the pale and called escalatory and antagonistic!
What a ridiculously one-sided imbalance.

As to the SeaKings...WTF does Ukraine need antisubmarine helos for? OK, it would be nice to neutralise the Kilos in the Black Sea but that isn't going to happen with three land-based sonar encumbered Mk5s and no highly skilled A/S crews to operate them, leave alone the necessary ordinance to finish the job. But as the BBC's article depicts Junglies...It seems unlikely that the 'journalists' who scribbled this garbage have a clue of what they speak (do they ever?) so I don't think we're much the wiser. A flight of Mk4s might well be useful up to a point, but are there really not enough familiar and easily supported Mil8s around in Europe to do the job without encumbering Ukraine with an entirely seperate logistics organisation running a mere 3 SeaKings? Gibe them 30 (as if!) and it might make sense, but three?

Come on, MoD, surely we can do better than that? Where are all the Mk4s?

Sounds like unnecessary over complication to me as described, but then again maybe it isn't as the fact-free goons in the meeja have 'described' it...

on the chopper front - I'm not sure 3 Sea Kings is going to do it ........plus the shed full of spares to keep them going for the week.

Ukrainian Flight- and ground-crews have apparently spent some weeks undergoing training. Presumably the Ukrainian forces therefore see some merit in their acquisition.

A good idea would be for every other state to send the Dumas bouquets of sunflowers.

Somehow I cannot get rid of the idea of UKR asking select CEE and EU governments for a joint military / police force assitance WEST of Dnipro and let's say no closer than 60 kms from the Belarusian border. Tell me you are NATO without being NATO.

Build up inland support infrastructure (off-field hospitals, repair stations, food processing...) that would bring along their own AA assets. To free up UKR own resources which could be moved more densely close to the frontline. Having for example's sake an Austrian-Romanian deployment at Borodianka north of Kyiv, covered by a Spanish AA hardware

Keeping people warm and powered up seems to be a delicate task these days, sure. Just being afraid that without a change of gears this will all lead to a bloody stale mate once the Ukranians run out of ammo (literally). With Donetck region under occupation behind an umoveable frontline. That would be a dangerous rooting ground for rashist ideology ever onwards.

And Ukraine deserve better, we deserve to deliver better. Critical opinions welcome.

The potential of ending in a stale mate reinforces the argument for stepping it up sooner rather than later. If there's nothing left and nowhere to go then the 'unthinkable' is more likely in the mind of a cornered lunatic.