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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2022 04:00


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11331569)
... tell Russia NATO will now target any vessel, aircraft or base found to be launching missiles or rockets in their direction.

Why do you think that isn't already understood and communicated? What a trigger happy bunch of cowboys we see on your side of the pond. Yippy Kai Yay, Mother Forker!

Originally Posted by fdr (Post 11331556)
I hope the report is wrong about Moldova.

Give it 48 hours, the details should filter out.

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 04:04


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11331570)
Why do you think that isn't already understood and communicated? What a trigger happy bunch of cowboys we see on your side of the pond. Yippy Kai Yay, Mother Forker!
Give it 48 hours, the details should filter out.

Do you not think that a single strike on any base etc that has launched a missile into a nato country is not a proportional response if proved to be the case?

I would say though Article 5 isn’t worth the paper it is written on if you ignore it, Russia should not be targeting anything close to the border if that was indeed the case.


Three U.S. officials told the
@AP
that preliminary assessments indicate the missile that struck Poland had been fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian missile.

DaveReidUK 16th Nov 2022 06:36


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11331508)
Confirmed russia

On November 15, 2022, another massive shelling of the entire territory of Ukraine and its critical infrastructure, conducted by the armed forces of the Russian Federation, took place for many hours. At 15:40 in the village of Przewodów in the Hrubieszów poviat in the Lubelskie Voivodship, a Russian-made missile fell, killing two citizens of the Republic of Poland. In connection with this event, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Zbigniew Rau, summoned the ambassador of the Russian Federation to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and demanded immediate detailed explanations.

I think all that's confirmed so far is the country of manufacture of the missile, not who launched it.

SWBKCB 16th Nov 2022 06:37


Never attribute to malice what is attributable to stupidity or incompetence - isn't a bad rule of thumb.

Joe Biden has cast doubt on the origin of a missile that hit Poland and killed two people late on Tuesday, saying it is "unlikely" to have been fired from Russia.

Ukrainian and Polish authorities said the explosion was caused by a Russian-made missile, but Mr Biden appeared to suggest the missile may not have been fired from Russia.

He said: "There is preliminary information that contests that. I don't want to say that until we completely investigate it, but it is unlikely in the lines of the trajectory that it was fired from Russia, but we'll see."
https://news.sky.com/story/missile-t...-says-12748538

JanetFlight 16th Nov 2022 07:43

So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

rattman 16th Nov 2022 07:51


Originally Posted by JanetFlight (Post 11331640)
So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

No it has intention in the wording ukraine would not intentionally attack poland I also doubt russia would be stupid enough to intentionally attack poland / NATO/ Hence why there has been no governmental discussion about 5 and it all comes back to 4

ORAC 16th Nov 2022 08:05

Biden’s statement is strangely worded. Note he said the missile hadn’t been fired from Russia, not by Russia.

Remember a lot of the missiles hitting Ukraine have been ALCM fired by Bear/Backfire over Belarus, Iskander/other/S-300 ground launched from Belarus and a combination of SSM/SLCM fired from the Black Sea.

Not so say it might not be a Ukrainian misfire, but Biden hasn’t really clarified anything.

Pali 16th Nov 2022 08:05

Ukraine was under attack with 100 incoming missiles. Off course there is a chance that some of defending S-300 rockets may go astray and land in Poland but we should never forget that it is still Russia who is to blame.

If there would be chaotic mass shooting in a school and police would hit some innocent bystander we would still assign responsibility to the attacker.

Therefore I think it would be right time to provide Ukraine with means to hit any launching installation regardless if it is an air base or a frigate at Black Sea. The minimum would be ATACMS to end off Kerch bridge and any bases within Crimea. With collapse of logistics to the peninsula the ability to continue the war would deteriorate.

Establishing no flight zone within right bank of Dnipro would be a step in the right direction too. Lack of action will give Putin a hint about weakness of NATO and this always led to escalation.

Less Hair 16th Nov 2022 08:05

Did just debris rain down causing damage or did the S-300 hit and explode like being ground targeted on that important power line EU-Ukraine?
Could the "Ukraine-missile-claim" just be NATO's response in order to not lose the initiative and have the summit agenda remotely controlled by Russia?

ORAC 16th Nov 2022 08:18

​​​​​​​Croatia 🇭🇷 will provide Ukraine 🇺🇦 with 14 Mi-8 helicopters to get US Blackhawk helicopters in return reports a Croatian Newspaper.

Video Mixdown 16th Nov 2022 08:24


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11331653)
Ukraine was under attack with 100 incoming missiles. Off course there is a chance that some of defending S-300 rockets may go astray and land in Poland but we should never forget that it is still Russia who is to blame.

Whatever the source of the missile I too find this rush to absolve Russia of blame distasteful. This only happened because Russia is firing missiles at Ukraine.

Timmy Tomkins 16th Nov 2022 09:01

"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Article 4 allows enhanced security measures to be taken. So now is the time for that aicraft deal to be resurected. US F16s for Polish Migs etc that can now legitimately go to Ukraine, along with any other goodies deemed necessary

rattman 16th Nov 2022 09:23


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11331675)
"Never let a good crisis go to waste"
Article 4 allows enhanced security measures to be taken. So now is the time for that aicraft deal to be resurected. US F16s for Polish Migs etc that can now legitimately go to Ukraine, along with any other goodies deemed necessary

Claims the article 4 meeting request has been withdrawn

Brewster Buffalo 16th Nov 2022 09:32

AP News Agency reporting that "Poland are saying the missile was Russian Made and also that "Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one..........The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly." I heard some report that the missile was a surface to air one...and the Ukrainians are probably still using Soviet equipment...

So sounding more likely that this was an unfortunate accident...

Buster Hyman 16th Nov 2022 09:39


Originally Posted by Brewster Buffalo (Post 11331696)
So sounding more likely that this was an unfortunate accident...

If correct, thank God wiser heads prevailed & it was fully investigated before acting.

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 09:57

More high quality footage of the Bridge in Kherson


NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 10:00

It seems the temporary Russian Kherson region that they still retain is now leaderless.


NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 10:12

Very good read on the cost of the Russian missiles being used and also on how long to restock ( 5 yrs)

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/what_...iles-4709.html

https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_m...date-4646.html

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 11:47

Well he does not appear to have problems with the russian tank traps.


ORAC 16th Nov 2022 11:56

It is reported that a refinery plant in Russia, 170 km from the border with Ukraine, was attacked by a drone.

​​​​​​​https://meduza.io/news/2022/11/16/gu...bazu-pod-orlom

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2022 12:08


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11331571)
Do you not think that a single strike on any base etc that has launched a missile into a nato country is not a proportional response if proved to be the case?

A NATO response, taken collectively, is done after consultation, not as a reflex. You do not understand Article V.
Now take your 'This is War' reflex and eat crow.
Poland Says Missile Was Likely Fired by Ukraine Air Defense (msn.com)

Originally Posted by JanetFlight (Post 11331640)
So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

If the clueless were in charge, perhaps, but fortunately they are not.
(I found your post amusing enough to chuckle as I sipped my coffee. :) )

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2022 12:15


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11331661)
Croatia 🇭🇷 will provide Ukraine 🇺🇦 with 14 Mi-8 helicopters to get US Blackhawk helicopters in return reports a Croatian Newspaper.

Great news (yes, I am biased, I flew them a long time ago, good aircraft) and I note that they had no interest in the NH 90. :p

Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11331663)
This only happened because Russia is firing missiles at Ukraine.

True.

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11331675)
"Never let a good crisis go to waste" Article 4 allows enhanced security measures to be taken. So now is the time for that aicraft deal to be resurected. US F16s for Polish Migs etc that can now legitimately go to Ukraine, along with any other goodies deemed necessary

As long as the Poles have the runways and airbases to operate from, and get the support / ground equipment, yeah, seems a good chance for an upgrade.
Gotta hand it to the Viper team: a design (with upgrades, of course) that has stood the test of time and is beginning to remind me of the C-130 as regards usability and popularity.
@gums, you and the gang done good! :ok:

But hang on: now that Sweden is about to Join NATO, maybe the Grippen would be an option?
*gets popcorn* :}

Tartiflette Fan 16th Nov 2022 12:21


Originally Posted by JanetFlight (Post 11331640)
So...if that is the case, would Poland and NATO invoke the article 5 against Ukraine?

Yes ....superbly inciteful question. Come back in another 20 years, will you ? Following parts of your Pprune biography fully verified

.Biography Crazy
Location Southern Shores of Lusitania Kingdom
Interests Hunting Demons
Occupation HeadBanging

Sue Vętements 16th Nov 2022 12:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11331199)
Russians film a tank trying to breech a Pyramid from their defence line as a demonstration of their effectiveness

Aren't they just showing everyone how crap their tanks are?

Tartiflette Fan 16th Nov 2022 12:30


Originally Posted by Sue Vętements (Post 11331773)
Aren't they just showing everyone how crap their tanks are?

and their engineers. if the "teeth" are simply plonked down individually , with no inter-connection - any bladed tank will just be able to punch through at any point to enable a break-through.

Asturias56 16th Nov 2022 12:50


Originally Posted by Buster Hyman (Post 11331702)
If correct, thank God wiser heads prevailed & it was fully investigated before acting.


yes NATO saying it was a Ukrainian missile

fdr 16th Nov 2022 13:17


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11331779)
and their engineers. if the "teeth" are simply plonked down individually , with no inter-connection - any bladed tank will just be able to punch through at any point to enable a break-through.

A Rome plow blade will be quite handy on the front of a tank taking them on.

fdr 16th Nov 2022 13:22


Originally Posted by Asturias56 (Post 11331792)
yes NATO saying it was a Ukrainian missile

NATO also note that irrespective of who fired it, the missile is related to aggression in contravention of UN resolutions, in self-defense by Ukraine. Much like murder statutes in the USA, where someone gets shot by the police during an action related to dealing with criminal activity. The criminal has a liability for the consequences of their actions.

No further word from Moldova, an errant S-300 fired in self-defense is looking like the case, with Russia still the responsible party.

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 13:27


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11331764)
A NATO response, taken collectively, is done after consultation, not as a reflex. You do not understand Article V.
Now take your 'This is War' reflex and eat crow.

Yes I do understand it and that it is an agreement between all countries and all agree, I never said or inferred otherwise, What I said was as a proportionate response would be a single strike at the point of origin as opposed to ramping it all up. .
Now take your 'This is War' reflex and eat crow.

dead_pan 16th Nov 2022 13:51

NATO should immediately invoke Article V and invade Ukraine, and hold whoever was responsible for this heinous attack to account. Surely Russia would accept this?

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 13:58

Where would you stop? the Kerch bridge? ;)

BTW let's not forget the two innocent Poles in all of this, just going about their daily lives.

Timmy Tomkins 16th Nov 2022 14:17


Originally Posted by Video Mixdown (Post 11331663)
Whatever the source of the missile I too find this rush to absolve Russia of blame distasteful. This only happened because Russia is firing missiles at Ukraine.

I agree and whilst NATO has sort of said that too we are still awaiting a response and there should be one. Not necessarily a strike but use the opportunity to put more kit - whatever form - into Ukraine and anywhere else that may be useful. What's Putin gonns do?

Video Mixdown 16th Nov 2022 16:09


Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins (Post 11331836)
I agree and whilst NATO has sort of said that too we are still awaiting a response and there should be one. Not necessarily a strike but use the opportunity to put more kit - whatever form - into Ukraine and anywhere else that may be useful. What's Putin gonns do?

What they need is something that can hit the Tu-95/Tu-160 that are launching missiles at them.

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2022 16:38


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11331804)
Yes I do understand it

You have yet to demonstrate that.

TW let's not forget the two innocent Poles in all of this, just going about their daily lives.
Yeah, it matters not to them, now, where that came from.

Originally Posted by Timmy Tomkins
I agree and whilst NATO has sort of said that too we are still awaiting a response and there should be one. Not necessarily a strike but use the opportunity to put more kit - whatever form - into Ukraine and anywhere else that may be useful. What's Putin gonna do?

About what he already has done, probably, given the billions in aid and kit already provided to Ukraine.
I saw something in the news about a new aid package being bandied about in Washington to the tune of over 30 billion, will see if anything substantive is in that story.
I am guessing more air defense, and more artillery, and more fundamental stuff like winter clothes and spare parts. And ammo.
This is kind of vague, not sure of the rumors of the 30 billion is a rumor, or if that number came from somewhere credible (Secretary of State, House of Representatives, etc).

Says here that the Swedes are offering some more Air Defense assets.

STOCKHOLM, Nov 16 (Reuters) - Sweden will deliver new military aid worth 3 billion crowns ($287 million) to Ukraine, its biggest package of defence material to date which included an air defence system, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said.

Confusious 16th Nov 2022 16:53

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....0b91201b46.jpg

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 16:56

Hmmm I wonder if that is Zelensky saying it is possibly a cover up by western leaders to prevent them having to take further action? It hints at that.

Lonewolf_50 16th Nov 2022 17:03


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11331917)
Hmmm I wonder if that is Zelensky saying it is possibly a cover up by western leaders to prevent them having to take further action? It hints at that.

That's a good question. Information and rumor fly fast, he points out that he needs to be in the loop on the investigation. (He's desirous of not getting blamed for two deaths in Poland, probably).
He needs to walk a fine line, and has had to since before 24 Feb.
If he makes a careless move he may lose support from some of the folks who are, to date, offering him support.
Between a rock and a hard place, he is.

MPN11 16th Nov 2022 17:10

Agree ... surprised he's ducking the issue. A simple "Sorry, we're busy having a War here" would have sufficed. But the poor sod is under so much pressure, I really feel sympathy for him.

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 17:16

I would imagine somewhere on the remains there will be a serial number that can be traced, however such as the war is, both sides have been using captured weaponry so tracing may be impossible.

NutLoose 16th Nov 2022 17:21

Ukraine now has fire control over Russia’s three main supply routes, it just got worse as the alternate is a journey of 80-120Km for artillery shells.



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