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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Tartiflette Fan 23rd Mar 2023 12:32

Seaborne attack on Sebastopol
 

The above is from Denys Davydov, a civilian pilot who is blogging most days on the war The first seven minutes concern the seaborne drone attack with more video than already shown on here: Denys is a native of Sevastopol, so he can add intelligent guesswork - and background material - on which major ship may have been hit. A good channel to drop in on - lots of detail particularly on all movements on the front-line ( 15 mins on if interested ).

NutLoose 23rd Mar 2023 12:34

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fp63mH6W...jpg&name=largeRemember this?


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5f4ca7935e.png

Look at it now..


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....a29213f3e2.png


https://www.dezeen.com/2023/02/28/ba...p-ukraine-war/

Sfojimbo 23rd Mar 2023 12:47


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11407229)
Another reason is that it’s much easier to get new builds through Congress...........

But would taking them out of the reserve fleet even been an issue? Here's 2,000 of them sitting in the sun: 40°12'9.01"N 120° 8'54.50"W (Wikipedia says that there's a total of 20,000 armored vehicles there).

The US military's response to Ukraine's need for armor remains incomprehensible to me. Why would the US, which has given or pledged over 100 billion dollars to Ukraine, be so chintzy about giving armor to Ukraine? It defies logic. This stuff has no reason to be rusting in the California outback, everything that is salvageable should be given to Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics etc.

I don't believe this 'secret armor' line, we know that much of it includes a layer of DU, and a layer or layers of the British Chobham or Dorchester pottery (or its US equivalent). Big deal, maybe they have arranged it so it's 3% or 7% more effective than the Challengers or the Leopards, but that's a big nothing when you compare even an Abraham's M1, rev 1 to a T-72 or whatever the Russians are scraping up for their army. The 'secret armor' argument is pure hokum.

Why aren't we giving Ukraine all our old Stryker vehicles? We're parking over 4,000 of them; why aren't they being shipped to Eastern Europe where they're needed? Why are we only sending 60 Bradleys to Ukraine, we should be sending 600 of them.

None of this makes any sense at all.

NutLoose 23rd Mar 2023 12:55

Says it all really.


Approach to Bahkmut


Tartiflette Fan 23rd Mar 2023 13:44


Originally Posted by Sfojimbo (Post 11407259)

The US military's response to Ukraine's need for armor remains incomprehensible to me. Why would the US, which has given or pledged over 100 billion dollars to Ukraine, be so chintzy about giving armor to Ukraine? It defies logic. This stuff has no reason to be rusting in the California outback, everything that is salvageable should be given to Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics etc.

.

Pretty certain that's wrong. That is about 12% of the military budget and I remember from an earlier post listing lots of detail per country that the aid is at the 4-5% level.

EDIT: Since January 2021, the United States has invested more than $33.2 billion in security assistance to demonstrate our enduring and steadfast commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

https://www.state.gov/u-s-security-c...al%20integrity.

Sfojimbo 23rd Mar 2023 13:50


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11407302)
Pretty certain that's wrong. That is about 12% of the military budget and I remember from an earlier post listing lots of detail per country that the aid is at the 4-5% level.

Here's a site that gives a 75 billion number.

Since the war began, the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress have directed more than $75 billion
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much...are-six-charts
I have seen a site that said the US had pledged $112 billion but I'm not going to waste time tracking it down again.

This is just quibbling about numbers and misses the point of my post.
The point is that the US has invested a huge sum in Ukraine but is being chintzy about donating what is essentially scrap iron.

Pali 23rd Mar 2023 14:57

Slovak Minister of defence J. Naď announced that first 4 Migs were safely delivered to Ukraine.


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....62cf469c9.jpeg

NutLoose 23rd Mar 2023 17:45

Well Boris… that nobody, and Zelensky may be closet gays according to the latest propogansh*t, talk about scrapping the bottom…..erm, of the barrel…

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B Fraser 23rd Mar 2023 17:51

Wow.........just wow.

VIDEO | In daylight and among their own. Zelenskyy, who went to coffee at the gas station with the soldiers, once again showed Putin how to make propaganda - Delfi

NutLoose 23rd Mar 2023 18:03

Interesting that Solovyov is talking about hoping China as part of the Russian Chinese “strategic partnership" will get US Nukes removed from the likes of Turkey. That is tantamount to admitting Russia is now subservient to China in this new relationship and Russia has lost its standing it had pre war.

​​​​​​​

Pali 23rd Mar 2023 18:49

Ukrainian pilots took over our Migs (probably the only serviceable) at AFB Sliač and headed home. Good hunting, brothers.
Footage provided by our DoD.


melmothtw 23rd Mar 2023 18:53


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11407480)
Ukrainian pilots took over our Migs (probably the only serviceable) at AFB Sliač and headed home. Good hunting, brothers.
Footage provided by our DoD.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...69512568696833

Do we know they are Ukrainian pilots? Genuine question - I can't find that reference in the link.

Sfojimbo 23rd Mar 2023 18:57


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11407480)
Ukrainian pilots took over our Migs (probably the only serviceable) at AFB Sliač and headed home. Good hunting, brothers.

Are these planes upgraded to a NATO standard?
Many months ago that was supposedly an issue with the Polish MIG-29s.

Wokkafans 23rd Mar 2023 23:45

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Wokkafans 23rd Mar 2023 23:52

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Wokkafans 23rd Mar 2023 23:53

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NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 00:23

Wow….

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 01:43

Interesting focus on some things that Ukraine needs to address.


To counter evolving tactics used by Russia and Wagner, troops require resources such as drones, radios and internet, night sights, 60mm mortars, grenades and grenade launchers for platoons, a full 81/82mm mortar company for each battalion, short-range missiles, AFAKs, uniform and safety equipment for every soldier. It is essential to prioritize discussions about these "enablers" in Ramstein meetings, not just larger equipment.

- Policy changes are necessary to modernize the military system, which still relies on outdated Soviet-style rules, and regulations. For example, drones purchased abroad needed a signature for release from MOD to the unit that purchased them. This was not done for 4 weeks. This delay means that soldiers die from a lack of drones. Activities like this should have a turnaround time of 12 hours maximum

- A new policy of creating mobile training teams near the front to update units out of battle with the latest lessons learned should be considered. It's wise to use those who have been injured in the war and cannot fight.

​​​​​​​
​​​​​​​

T28B 24th Mar 2023 01:52


Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj (Post 11407695)
My posts have all just disappeared- every one of them. I did not remove them.

You are correct. It unfortunately turned into a bickerfest that added no value to the topic at hand. The FOD was removed from the runway.

Anyone doubt that I am telling the truth that the US want to prolong the conflict?
You've stated your opinion, you've received feedback ... and you want to try again?
Right, TOGA button pushed, trying for a stabilized approach.

Notice to all: play the ball not the man, or the FOD sweeper will come again.

How about all of you put the first P back into PPRuNe: Professional.

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 02:28

Brave woman, those still resisting.. one hope she is freed.


Pali 24th Mar 2023 07:28


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11407482)
Do we know they are Ukrainian pilots? Genuine question - I can't find that reference in the link.

Yes, it was stated in the briefing given by Ministry of defence. Transfer via air was rather surprising but on the video you can see that original markings are gone and it would be impossible to expect from Slovak pilots to fly to a war zone with all the international politics ramifications.


Originally Posted by Sfojimbo (Post 11407484)
Are these planes upgraded to a NATO standard?
Many months ago that was supposedly an issue with the Polish MIG-29s.

All except two oldest ones were converted, radios, FOF, altimeters from meters to feet, etc. I've just listened to a podcast where a technician explained details about our fleet and he said that Ukrainians will be able to use almost all of them in combat because airframes have quite low hours (our air force didn't have funds to use them much).

It was a brave decision by minister Naď because in January government lost vote of confidence and new election will be held in September. It is quite likely that pro-Russian coalition will win and they threat him already now with criminal indictment for "misusing power" when sending Migs to Ukraine. I hate to say that but Slovakia will possibly join Orbán in anti Ukraine stance which will be very shameful. The years of hybrid war and massive Russian propaganda will take the toll. :ugh:
If they will be able to acquire over 66% votes we may expect some form of semi-fascist regime. Horrible.

Sfojimbo 24th Mar 2023 07:35

An unusual sight today on FR24 is an ATR c-72-600 mpa maritime surveillance aircraft, from Turkiye of all places, paroling the water offshore of Romania and headed toward the Ukrainian border (but it turned back at the latitude of Constanta).

This must be a NATO mission. This is the first time I've seen the Turks get involved.

Sfojimbo 24th Mar 2023 07:40


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11407807)
in January government lost vote of confidence and new election will be held in September. It is quite likely that pro-Russian coalition will win and they threat him already now with criminal indictment for "misusing power" when sending Migs to Ukraine. I hate to say that but Slovakia will possibly join Orbán in anti Ukraine stance which will be very shameful. The years of hybrid war and massive Russian propaganda will take the toll. :ugh:
If they will be able to acquire over 66% votes we may expect some form of semi-fascist regime. Horrible.

Thanks for that update on Slovakia.

langleybaston 24th Mar 2023 07:48


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11407709)
You are correct. It unfortunately turned into a bickerfest that added no value to the topic at hand. The FOD was removed from the runway.

You've stated your opinion, you've renoceived feedback ... and you want to try again?
Right, TOGA button pushed, trying for a stabilized approach.

Notice to all: play the ball not the man, or the FOD sweeper will come again.

How about all of you put the first P back into PPRuNe: Professional.

thank you.
About time too!

B Fraser 24th Mar 2023 07:58


Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj (Post 11407695)
Anyone doubt that I am telling the truth that the US want to prolong the conflict?

Since you ask....yes. Remarkable claims require remarkable proof. If what you say held any water then there would be pressure on the UK and others not to provide material and training at the current rate. While some countries response has been utterly shameful, that is down to their own ineptitude and in one case, is the legacy of a totally incompetent minister who has moved on to a bigger clusterf*ck.

Take a look at the wider picture. The Russian capability has been found to be completely p*ss poor. Prolonging the war will only reduce this position. Whether their capability is medieval or stone age hardly matters so why prolong the war ? Whether they have 2,000 T50 tanks or 1,000 changes nothing so there is zero incentive. The size of the prison population being deployed as cannon fodder is of no consequence. Whether they are back inside, free or are turned to fertilizer is of no concern to the west.

Can we see some evidence so we can form our own view.


rattman 24th Mar 2023 08:05


Originally Posted by Sfojimbo (Post 11407812)
An unusual sight today on FR24 is an ATR c-72-600 mpa maritime surveillance aircraft, from Turkiye of all places, paroling the water offshore of Romania and headed toward the Ukrainian border (but it turned back at the latitude of Constanta).

This must be a NATO mission. This is the first time I've seen the Turks get involved.

They had wedgetail/peace eagles doing nato awacs missions on and off for the last 12 months

Timmy Tomkins 24th Mar 2023 09:49


Originally Posted by Pali (Post 11407807)
Yes, it was stated in the briefing given by Ministry of defence. Transfer via air was rather surprising but on the video you can see that original markings are gone and it would be impossible to expect from Slovak pilots to fly to a war zone with all the international politics ramifications.



All except two oldest ones were converted, radios, FOF, altimeters from meters to feet, etc. I've just listened to a podcast where a technician explained details about our fleet and he said that Ukrainians will be able to use almost all of them in combat because airframes have quite low hours (our air force didn't have funds to use them much).

It was a brave decision by minister Naď because in January government lost vote of confidence and new election will be held in September. It is quite likely that pro-Russian coalition will win and they threat him already now with criminal indictment for "misusing power" when sending Migs to Ukraine. I hate to say that but Slovakia will possibly join Orbán in anti Ukraine stance which will be very shameful. The years of hybrid war and massive Russian propaganda will take the toll. :ugh:
If they will be able to acquire over 66% votes we may expect some form of semi-fascist regime. Horrible.

Thanks for that Pali. I wasn't aware that things may change that way and wish you all over there the best for a better result than you fear. How sad that the EU and the wider Europe cannot be united on htis vital issue. I have Hungarian friends who were so desperte for democracy when they were part of the Soviet bloc and it hasn't delivered what they hoped for, so it would be worrying to see a pro-Ruso block forming in Europe and sad for all of you. Fingers crossed.

Baldeep Inminj 24th Mar 2023 10:25


Originally Posted by T28B (Post 11407709)
You are correct. It unfortunately turned into a bickerfest that added no value to the topic at hand. The FOD was removed from the runway.

You've stated your opinion, you've renoceived feedback ... and you want to try again?
Right, TOGA button pushed, trying for a stabilized approach.

Notice to all: play the ball not the man, or the FOD sweeper will come again.

How about all of you put the first P back into PPRuNe: Professional.

You have no interest whatsoever in the truth. My posts are too uncomfortable for you so you delete them and no, J was not playing the ma - others were.

Refardless, I shall leave you to your insular and ignorant views and will not upset your cosy view of the world.

Signing off. Form links deleted. Have a nice life.

Buster Hyman 24th Mar 2023 10:57

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....b970b026c2.png
LOL! :}

Anyway, it'd be interesting to see how the Wedgetail performs in this theatre. From all accounts, it did well in Syria & Iraq but the RF would be a different test for it.

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 11:07

More on the transfer of the Mig 29 to Ukraine, thanks to Pali's country :ok:


https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ct_source=pitc

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 11:09

What do you make of this?


HOVIS 24th Mar 2023 11:15

Invalid Transponder code?

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 11:18

Aviation Content:

Su 30 downed


Spunky Monkey 24th Mar 2023 11:31

The video of President Zelensky with the troops and staff at the petrol station brought a proper lump to my throat. He is the man for the moment and the world is a better place with him and his team in it.
Slava Ukraini!

fineline 24th Mar 2023 11:40

Sorry to see you go BDIM. I am sure there are all kinds of different policies being discussed within and around Western governments, and I wouldn't be surprised if the viewpoint you describe hadn't been raised. There are those who might suggest that the long term strategic interests of the West would be to bleed Russia as long as it can. Maybe you have even been privy to such discussions, as you suggest.

I don't agree with that viewpoint myself, but unlike others here I support your right to present it. Tolerance - agreeing to disagree - is our superpower in the free world, it's the key thing that separates us from Russia, China, Iran, NK and other totalitarian hellholes. It's always a shame to see it being eroded. Media organisations are free to editorialise and frame things in tune with their audience, but to outright block alternate viewpoints is worrying. It seems to be happening more across the whole media landscape, of all political affiliations - often accompanies by ironic cries for "freedom of speech".

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 12:06

Fineline, a classic example, what a world to live in.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65015289

For those that may not have access to the BBC
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....ad11531051.png


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....320a7c3657.png



In the centre of the Russian town of Yefremov is a wall covered in pictures of war. Giant photographs of masked Russian soldiers with guns and supersized letters Z and V - symbols of the country's so-called special military operation in Ukraine.

There's a poem, too:

Good should have fists.

Good needs an iron hand

To tear the skin from those

Who threaten it.

This is the official, patriotic picture of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.


But in this town, 320km (200 miles) south of Moscow, you'll find another image of the Ukraine war. A very different one.

Town councillor Olga Podolskaya shows me a photo on her mobile phone. It's of a child's drawing. To the left is a Ukrainian flag with the words "Glory to Ukraine", on the right, the Russian tricolour and the inscription "No to war!". As missiles fly in from the direction of Russia, a mother and her child stand defiantly in their path.

The picture was drawn in April 2022 by then 12-year-old Masha Moskaleva. Her father Alexei, a single parent, had contacted the town councillor for advice. He told her that after seeing Masha's drawing, her school had called the police.

"The police started investigating Alexei's social media," Olga tells me. "And they told him that he was bringing up his daughter in a bad way."

Charges followed. For an anti-war post on social media, Alexei was fined 32,000 roubles (around $415 or £338 at the time) for discrediting the Russian armed forces. A few weeks ago, a criminal case was opened against him. Again, anti-war posts formed the basis for discreditation charges.

This time Alexei faces a possible prison sentence.

Alexei is currently under house arrest in Yefremov. His daughter Masha has - for now - been sent to a children's home. Alexei has not even been allowed to speak to her on the phone.

"No-one has seen Masha since 1 March," Olga Podolskaya tells me, "despite our attempts to get access to the children's home and to find out how she is.

"The Russian authorities want everyone to toe the line. No-one is allowed to have their own opinion. If you disagree with what someone thinks, then don't read their social media posts. But don't put that person under house arrest and their child in a children's home."

We are standing outside an apartment block in Yefremov. A window opens and a man looks out. It's Alexei. We're not allowed to communicate with him. Under the rules of his house arrest Alexei is only permitted contact with his lawyer, the investigator and the penitentiary service.

he lawyer, Vladimir Biliyenko, has just arrived. He's come to deliver food and drink which local activists have bought for Alexei.

"He is very worried because his daughter is not with him," Vladimir tells me after visiting Alexei Moskalev. "Everything in the flat reminds him of her. He's worried about what may be happening to her."

I ask the lawyer why he thinks the authorities have taken Masha away.

"If they had real questions for the father, they should have invited him to give a statement. They should have invited Masha, too, and spoken to her," Vladimir says.

"None of this was done. They just decided to send her off [to the children's home]. In my opinion, if it wasn't for the kind of administrative and criminal charges Alexei has received, this wouldn't be happening. The social services seem obsessed with this family. I think it's purely for political reasons. The family's problems only began after the girl drew that picture."

On the street, I ask Alexei's neighbours what they think of the situation.

"She's a good girl, and I've never had a problem with the dad," says pensioner Angelina Ivanovna. "But I'm scared to say anything. I'm frightened to."

"Perhaps we could collect signatures in [Alexei's] support," a younger woman suggests. But when asked for her opinion on what is happening, she replies: "Sorry, I can't tell you."

I ask if she is frightened about possible consequences.

"Yes, of course."

It's a short walk from Alexei Moskalev's apartment block to School No 9, where Masha had studied and that her father says called the police over Masha's anti-war drawing. The school has yet to respond to our written request for comment. When we tried to visit, we were told we couldn't come in. Our telephone calls went unanswered.

But I have visited School No 9's website. The images there remind me of the patriotic wall I saw in the centre of town.

The home page features Heroes of the Special Military Operation - two dozen portraits of Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine.

There are patriotic slogans, too: "Everything for Victory. Let's support our lads on the front line!"

Soldiers back from Ukraine visited School No 9 last October. In а speech that day school director Larisa Trofimova declared: "We believe in ourselves and in our Motherland, which can never make a mistake."

Across town, supporters of the Moskalev family and journalists are gathering at the local courthouse. The Yefremov Juvenile Affairs Commission is taking legal action to officially restrict Alexei's parental rights.

It's an initial hearing known as "a conversation" with the judge. Lawyer Vladimir Biliyenko says Alexei had wanted to be here in person. However he hasn't been allowed to interrupt his house arrest to come to court, even though what's at stake is access to his child.

In the courthouse corridor an activist unfurls a poster.

"Return Masha to her father!" it declares. A police officer tells her to take it down.

The Juvenile Affairs Commission has yet to respond to our request to comment on the case of Alexei Moskalev and his daughter Masha.

One of Alexei's supporters, Natalya Filatova, believes the story of the Moskalev family reflects the crackdown on dissent in Russia.

"Our constitution proclaims freedom of speech, freedom of conscience, total freedom for citizens to express their opinions," Natalya tells me. "But now we're forbidden from doing that."



DaveReidUK 24th Mar 2023 12:24


Originally Posted by fineline (Post 11407945)
Sorry to see you go BDIM. I am sure there are all kinds of different policies being discussed within and around Western governments, and I wouldn't be surprised if the viewpoint you describe hadn't been raised. There are those who might suggest that the long term strategic interests of the West would be to bleed Russia as long as it can. Maybe you have even been privy to such discussions, as you suggest.

I don't agree with that viewpoint myself, but unlike others here I support your right to present it. Tolerance - agreeing to disagree - is our superpower in the free world, it's the key thing that separates us from Russia, China, Iran, NK and other totalitarian hellholes. It's always a shame to see it being eroded. Media organisations are free to editorialise and frame things in tune with their audience, but to outright block alternate viewpoints is worrying. It seems to be happening more across the whole media landscape, of all political affiliations - often accompanies by ironic cries for "freedom of speech".

I would wholeheartedly agree with those sentiments. While I don't see "bleeding the Russians dry" as an agreed strategy by any means, it's tempting to see hints of that in the actions (or inactions) of one or two of the more tardy members of the alliance.

It's always a good idea to remember that absence of evidence isn't the same as evidence of absence.

KeyPilot 24th Mar 2023 12:39

I also agree that BDIM's central hypothesis had some merit, however I think the issue was that he made the same point repeatedly, was confrontational to those who disagreed with him, and risibly claimed some kind of inside knowledge (either he didn't have any, or he did and then wouldn't have said so in a public forum!).

Moderation of social media is a balancing act, but I think the mods (on balance) got it right here.

NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 12:41

Stunned Russian propagandist that Zelensky actually visited Bahkmut.


NutLoose 24th Mar 2023 12:55

Ohh where do i sign up.... Not

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1638937155006283778?cxt=HHwWhIC21Zaq1r4tAAAA

..


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