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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

MJ89 14th Aug 2022 22:53

(warning Aviation content)

Ukrainian air force Mig29 coming across a supposedly Russian su-25 on the first or second day of the invasion.

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 00:00

You couldn’t make these things up.


A headquarters of the Russian private military contractor Wagner in the embattled Donbas region was hit by a Ukrainian missile strike after a Russian correspondent posted a picture of it—including a plaque with its full address

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 00:08

Demining the Fields.


BlankBox 15th Aug 2022 00:52

https://en.defence-ua.com/industries...tion-3887.html


The specifications of this submarine are as follows: width 7.4 m, length 9 m, height 2.2 meters. Speed on the surface is 80 km/h, underwater – 50 km/h. The operating depth is 150 meters, the crush depth is 250 meters. The time spent underwater is 36 hours in battery mode, 18 hours in generator mode, and 54 hours in hybrid mode.
...I really dunno what to make of this :confused:

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 01:29

The partisan damaged rail bridge to melitopol.


India Four Two 15th Aug 2022 05:32

Spectacular timing for tank war games in Russia!


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1a9c3205b.jpeg

https://tuoitrenews.vn/news/society/...sia/68582.html

It is interesting to see the list of countries participating.

Beamr 15th Aug 2022 05:37


Originally Posted by India Four Two (Post 11278552)
Spectacular timing for tank war games in Russia!

It is interesting to see the list of countries participating.

The first group consists of teams from Azerbaijan, Belarus, Venezuela, Vietnam, Kazakhstan, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, China, Uzbekistan, and Mongolia, while the second is comprised of Abkhazia, Armenia, Zimbabwe, Iran, Laos, Mali, Myanmar, Syria, Sudan, Tajikistan, and South Ossetia.

Buster Hyman 15th Aug 2022 08:05


Originally Posted by India Four Two (Post 11278552)
Spectacular timing for tank war games in Russia!


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1a9c3205b.jpeg

Thats a crack team of Tankers right there!!!

DirtyProp 15th Aug 2022 08:55


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11278299)
Yes, outrageous.

Such an incursion would be either NATO, or not NATO.
NATO is defensive.
No non-NATO country with a Russian border shows the slightest appetite to commit suicide as far as I am aware. Please name such a country.

Well, Japan is getting increasingly vocal (and pissed) about the Kuril islands. Unlikely to escalate into a full conflict but the situation is not easy.

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 09:34

Translation

‎#Ukraine‎‎ kamikaze drone destroys a communication tower on the territory of the Russian Federation near the border ‎‎#war‎‎ ‎‎#Krieg‎

ORAC 15th Aug 2022 09:40

Well the whole of the northern Caucasus is an area to watch. If Putin falls and Russia has internal disorder don’t xpect Chechnya or th other republics not to stir up trouble.

Lots of anger at the disparate casualties in Ukraine as their men and sons have been fed into the meat grinder.whilst those in Moscow and S Petersburg have been spared…

And when the Chechens fighting for Ukraine head home they’ll undoubtedly take lots of experience and equipment with them - and volunteers and logistic support.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chechnya

https://jamestown.org/program/russia...orth-caucasus/


https://newlinesmag.com/reportage/ch...ns-in-ukraine/

Wokkafans 15th Aug 2022 09:48

With regard to artillery wearing out - a catastrophic failure in the field:

"Footage of an Ukrainian 2S7 failed when firing"

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

ORAC 15th Aug 2022 10:01

Russia now recruiting those over 50 to go to Ukraine….


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....afeec5924.jpeg

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....2a8d3361e.jpeg


Tartiflette Fan 15th Aug 2022 11:03


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11278686)
Well the whole of the northern Caucasus is an area to watch. If Putin falls and Russia has internal disorder don’t xpect Chechnya or th other republics not to stir up trouble.

Lots of anger at the disparate casualties in Ukraine as their men and sons have been fed into the meat grinder.whilst those in Moscow and S Petersburg have been spared…

And when the Chechens fighting for Ukraine head home they’ll undoubtedly take lots of experience and equipment with them - and volunteers and logistic support.

I have to say that -given the reputation of the Chechen as very tough fighters and the recent history of the brutal Russo/Chechen wars - I have been puzzled that Kadyrov is able to rule without any apparent internal discontent ( at least on what I read ) and giving enthusiastic support for Putin. Reports I have seen (linked on this site ? ) have shown that the Chechens were being treated like Moscovites in that their leaders were able to choose their engagements and chose the less risky ones. I recall them being in the rear of the fight for Kyev ( and part of the atrocities in the villages there ? ) and also as late-comers for the battle for Mariupol and the Azov steel-works.

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 12:02

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....392c9b5718.png

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 12:35

Balls of steel, looks like more bullsh*t Russian propaganda, you would not lift and carry those little blighters anywhere.


rattman 15th Aug 2022 13:21


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11278686)
Well the whole of the northern Caucasus is an area to watch. If Putin falls and Russia has internal disorder don’t xpect Chechnya or th other republics not to stir up trouble.

Lots of anger at the disparate casualties in Ukraine as their men and sons have been fed into the meat grinder.whilst those in Moscow and S Petersburg have been spared…

I would expect the next immediate flashpoint to be belarus if the ukrainians win. Theres a LOT or trained and equiped belarussians. While they wont be able to take western heavy hardware, cant imagine ukraine will much if any effort to prevent them taking ukrainian / ex soviet / captured russian hardware with them

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 13:44


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11278823)
I would expect the next immediate flashpoint to be Belarus if when the Ukrainians win. There's a LOT or trained and equipped Belarusian's. While they won't be able to take western heavy hardware, can't imagine Ukraine will much if any effort to prevent them taking Ukrainian / ex soviet / captured Russian hardware with them

Let's just correct that little word :)

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 14:06

Well the rail bridge from Melitopol is well and truly shut, even Gupta in North West Frontier wouldn't cross that one


‎The partisans damaged the bridge near Melitopol and blocked the way of delivering ammunition from Crimea to the occupiers,‎

langleybaston 15th Aug 2022 14:13

It will buff up. Give or take a year or so.

Beamr 15th Aug 2022 14:26

Putin has boasted to arm Russias allies with the latest arms technology: "[Russia] is ready to offer partners and allies the most modern types of weapons - from small arms to armoured vehicles and artillery, combat aircraft and unmanned aerial vehicles"

my question is: what is most modern type of Russian weaponry that might be of interest after showcasing their efficiency in the war in Ukraine? Tanks? Frigates? S400's? Fast jets?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-08-15/

Lonewolf_50 15th Aug 2022 15:02


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11278850)
Putin has boasted to arm Russias allies with the latest arms technology
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...es-2022-08-15/

If you go a bit further down in the article, he also alludes to those who weren't at the fair as being girly-men, or something like that.

"I want to emphasize that Russia stands for the broadest comprehensive development military-technical cooperation. Today in conditions of confidence in the emerging multipolar world, this is especially important," Putin said.
"We highly appreciate the fact that our country has many like-minded allies and partners on different continents. These are the states that do not succumb to the so-called hegemon, their leaders show a real masculine character and do not bend."
I'll bet a nickel that he was addressing Latin American and South American customers. ;)

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 15:07


"I want to emphasize that Russia stands for the broadest comprehensive development military-technical cooperation. Today in conditions of confidence in the emerging multipolar world, this is especially important," Putin said.
"We highly appreciate the fact that our country has many like-minded allies and partners on different continents. These are the states that do not succumb to the so-called hegemon, their leaders show a real masculine character and do not bend."
Why do I suddenly feel the urge to rip my shirt off, splash myself all over with Brut (cringe) and jump on the back of an unsaddled horse and have my photo taken??

Lonewolf_50 15th Aug 2022 15:12


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11278871)
Why do I suddenly feel the urge to rip my shirt off, splash myself all over with Brut (cringe) and jump on the back of an unsaddled horse and have my photo taken??

But first, let Hans and Franz pump (clap!) you up! :E

Tartiflette Fan 15th Aug 2022 15:34


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11278871)
Why do I suddenly feel the urge to rip my shirt off, splash myself all over with Brut (cringe) ??

Well Nutty, that would go rather well with your hairdresser's car, don't you reckon ? :O:O

langleybaston 15th Aug 2022 16:03

One would imagine that Putin's best bet would be to arm/ rearm and equip his own mob first?

Rather a lot of heavy gear may be left behind when the retreat gets under way. Putin cannot even trust his people to disable any serviceable ironmongery.

ORAC 15th Aug 2022 16:29


One would imagine that Putin's best bet would be to arm/ rearm and equip his own mob first?
I would suggest he doesn’t ask his generals what they want - their responses might resemble that of Galland to Goering…

Tartiflette Fan 15th Aug 2022 16:30


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11278897)
One would imagine that Putin's best bet would be to arm/ rearm and equip his own mob first?
.

Of course and the miserable state of the Russian army was discussed in some detail last week when Ruslan Pukhow, director of the Institute for Strategy and Technology ( part of the Defence Ministry ) - and supposedly an intimate of Putin - gave an interview to a Russian journalist which was astonishingly frank.

https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland...132941476.html

I also read somewhere this week that existing export orders for India and Egypt are being delayed to allow the equipment (tanks, I believe ) to be diverted to RF.

jolihokistix 15th Aug 2022 16:44


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11278906)
I would suggest he doesn’t ask his generals what they want - their responses might resemble that of Galland to Goering…

Had the great pleasure and honour of meeting and chatting with both Adolf Galland and Robert Stanford-Tuck in New York in the early 1970s.

I wish Putin had someone honest and straight-talking he could rely on to give him a few home truths.

langleybaston 15th Aug 2022 18:01


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11278911)
Had the great pleasure and honour of meeting and chatting with both Adolf Galland and Robert Stanford-Tuck in New York in the early 1970s.

I wish Putin had someone honest and straight-talking he could rely on to give him a few home truths.

Really? Surely best if he is misinformed by sycophants.

dead_pan 15th Aug 2022 18:57


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11278897)
One would imagine that Putin's best bet would be to arm/ rearm and equip his own mob first?

Guessing he really needs the cash

dead_pan 15th Aug 2022 19:03


Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan (Post 11278907)
I also read somewhere this week that existing export orders for India and Egypt are being delayed to allow the equipment (tanks, I believe ) to be diverted to RF.

I'd read the Indian helo acquisition had been cancelled due to concerns regarding Russia's ability to supply spares.

tdracer 15th Aug 2022 20:55


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11278911)
I wish Putin had someone honest and straight-talking he could rely on to give him a few home truths.

I doubt Putin would tolerate someone telling him what he doesn't want to hear. Shooting the messenger comes to mind...

ORAC 15th Aug 2022 21:32

https://warontherocks.com/2022/08/en...ffense-part-i/

ENDING THE IDEOLOGY OF THE OFFENSE, PART I

…..
The ongoing war in Ukraine has shown that indications and warnings are a risky gauge on which to base decisions about the flow of forces into a theater. For Russia, whose deployment distance is stepping across a border, while the United States must cross an ocean and all of Western Europe, it is especially fraught. The Chinese advantage of proximity similarly creates challenges in defending Taiwan and elsewhere in the region.

These realities, coupled with the ever-growing threat to air bases and seaports from long-range precision fires, only complicate the getting-to-the-fight challenge. Even if there is sufficient warning, as there was in Ukraine this February, deployment could be stalled because of trepidations over fears of escalation or provoking enemy aggression.

What is needed as a first step in establishing regional deterrence in the Pacific and Europe is an assessment of what bare minimum has to be in place before a crisis to assure partners and allies that the coalition can credibly deter. This will include allied contributions, so the demand on U.S. forces will be less than shouldering the entire burden. If what is in place is not sufficient for the plan, it will likely not get there before the onset of hostilities….

Ironically, all the technologies that have been and are being developed for rapid, decisive offensive operations turn out to be even more formidable in the defense. They deny our adversaries surprise and enable us to dispose our forces where they can most effectively defend against attack. Consequently, as Alex Vershinin notes: “Emerging technologies in the fields of network, artificial intelligence, and space are shifting the balance back to defenses.” He continues by stating that the United States may have missed this shift and that the consequences are significant: “Unable to fight a short decapitation campaign, the United States may be forced into a prolonged attrition campaign, at unacceptable political costs.”

In the next part of this essay, I will turn to how the war in Ukraine can help the Department of Defense better understand the ascendance of the defense, so it can better prepare for the military problems it faces now and in the future.

NutLoose 15th Aug 2022 21:36

This is worrying, and might result in a regime change in Belarus? as I hate to think of the repercussions. I wonder if this is why the radar was taken out.


GlobalNav 15th Aug 2022 23:53


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11278911)
Had the great pleasure and honour of meeting and chatting with both Adolf Galland and Robert Stanford-Tuck in New York in the early 1970s.

I wish Putin had someone honest and straight-talking he could rely on to give him a few home truths.

He probably did at one time. They fare as well as (worse actually) those who spoke truth to our most recent former president.

fdr 16th Aug 2022 01:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11279065)
This is worrying, and might result in a regime change in Belarus? as I hate to think of the repercussions. I wonder if this is why the radar was taken out.

https://twitter.com/Lyla_lilas/statu...66401860440066

With some 85% of the population opposing the war, seems like a courageous move for the last dictator in Europe. That is a fair amount of firepower that they are playing with, presumably they don't mind being on the receiving end of all the capability Ukraine has to hit them should they desire to be a party to Putin and his war crimes. They have already been in the game as an accomplice and now they want to add to the disgrace? Of note however, many of their citizens have been working with Ukraine against Russia, that should be a red flag to the dictator as to the potential for his grand plan to backfire.

ORAC 16th Aug 2022 06:33

What's the significance of today's explosions in Russian-occupied Crimea, and could it potentially be even more significant than the HIMARS attack on a Russian ammunition train two weeks ago?


ORAC 16th Aug 2022 06:38

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2022-08-16/

Russia's Black Sea fleet struggling with effective sea control, UK says

Aug 16 (Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday that Russia's Black Sea Fleet is currently struggling to exercise effective sea control, with patrols generally limited to the waters within sight of the Crimean coast.

The Black Sea Fleet continues to use long-range cruise missiles to support ground offensives but is keeping a defensive posture, the British Defence Ministry said in its daily intelligence bulletin…

The Black Sea Fleet's currently limited effectiveness undermines Russia's overall invasion strategy, in part because the amphibious threat to Odesa has now been largely neutralised, the intelligence update added.

ORAC 16th Aug 2022 07:40

“At a press briefing Monday, following his meeting with President Volodymer Zelensky in Kyiv, Defence Secretary Austin said the United States just shipped five battalions of 155mm howitzers and their munitions to beef up Ukraine’s long-range fires.

He expected allies to do likewise in the coming days.”….


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