pasta

Assuming we're talking about "inherited" nuclear weapons, in states which lack the capability to build from scratch, for what sort of timescale are they likely to remain viable as nuclear weapons?

My best guess is that Ukraine are preparing their ground forces for the offensive (we're still hearing about the odd strike on command posts and the like, that could be attributed to Storm Shadow) and the Russian ground forces are bracing themselves for the same. My guess is that we'll see more Belgorod-style border incursions before things get really hot, presumably with the aim of diverting Russian forces from the real front.

albatross

Treats seem to include Nuclear Weapons for your demented, totalitarian leaders! What could possibly go wrong?

Video Mixdown

You make a good point. From what others who know more about this than me have said, unless you have the technical capability, resources and money to maintain them they have quite a short shelf life. They could easily turn out to be more a poisoned (literally) chalice than a magic bullet.

Tartiflette Fan

I have no knowledge of how much maintenance nukes need, but wouldn't any opposition have to act/react as if it were 100% viable because there was a 10% chance that it might be ?

Video Mixdown

Quite right. I was thinking more of the risks to the owners themselves.

_Agrajag_

What we just don't know at all is the true extent of opposition to Putin inside Russia. I used to believe that this was small. I'm now becoming more convinced that opposition is growing. I'm still sure that it's mostly from younger people, who have a bigger world picture. Still get the feeling that Putin's days are numbered and that he will be overthrown.

What very much worries me is how that may happen and what may be the consequences. The history of Russia over the past century has shown how divisive and destabilising regime change tends to be there. I am sure there are a lot of Russians that are clinging on to the "better the Devil you know" principle. Anyone with memories of Stalin and to a lesser extent the hardships that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union may think twice before supporting the overthrow of Putin.

My money is on Putin being defenestrated via an internal coup. If that happens then the phrase "be careful what you wish for" may come home to roost. Putin is evil, but are any of those that might overthrow him any better?

I hope I'm wrong. I want to see the war in Ukraine end, but also want to see stability in that region. I fear that a military coup in Russia may end the war but make Russia less stable. Not a good looking outcome for a major nuclear power.

NutLoose

It appears that things are about to get interesting.

NutLoose

More..



​​​​​​​

FUMR

It all sounds very odd to me. I would have thought it best to stay quiet. There must be a reason I guess. Or is it to catch the Ruskies off guard as they all change their underwear in anticipation?

ORAC

That’s the third, presumably Storm Shadow, strike on Mariupol. As with the first 2 the casualties are reported to be in the hundreds.

It would seem the Russians still don’t learn and continue rushing in mass concentrations of troops to single areas…

​​​​​​​Better footage on how Russians troops were decimated yesterday near Mariupol. It is now reported by multiple sources that a Russian barracks got hit, killing and wounding hundreds of soldiers.

Ninthace

It is to give them a fighting chance to . . .
Run Away! Vide Monty Python and the Holy Grail

langleybaston

They use underwear?

How very civilised. Probably one pair.

Commando, front to front, front to back, inside out front to front, inside out front to back, commando during wash/ dry, front to front,
repeat.

NutLoose

more coming out

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA

meleagertoo

The calm before the storm.

Winemaker

Here's a really good analysis of the Ukraine vs Russkie long range weapons systems, well worth a watch. Thanks to our British compadres for supplying the Storm Shadow!

Winemaker

From the New York Times today, link here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/29/w...n-centers.html

ORAC

Kyiv
At least one person is dead after a fresh wave of "massive" drone attacks bombarded Kyiv early on Tuesday morning.

Ukrainian defence forces shot down more than 20 Iranian-made Shahed drones as Russia carried out new air strikes on the capital, the third attack in 24 hours.

Air raid sirens blared in several regions of Ukraine as falling debris hit multiple districts of Kyiv, including the historic Podil and Pecherskyi neighbourhoods. "A massive attack!" Mayor Vitali Klitschko said on Telegram app. "Do not leave shelters."

One person died and three others were injured when debris from a destroyed Russian projectile hit a high-rise apartment building, sparking a fire. Two upper floors of the building were destroyed and there could still be people under the rubble, Kyiv's military administration officials added.

"The attack was massive, came from different directions, in several waves," Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv's military administration, said on Telegram.

The Kyiv City Military Administration has posted its summary of the attack, saying, “In the last 24 hours, the enemy has already carried out 3 attacks. Moreover, the enemy is constantly changing weapons for attack, after the combined missile-drone, and then ballistic, the aggressor used exclusively UAVs.”

Moscow

Drones hit several buildings in Moscow causing “minor” damage and no serious injuries, the mayor of the Russian capital said early on Tuesday.

“All emergency services of the city are at the scene of incidents,” Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a statement.

Russia’s RIA state news agency reported that some residents of a building on Moscow’s Profsoyuznaya Street in the city’s south were being evacuated.

​​​​​​​Moscow City Officials have announced that Air Defense Batteries were able to Shoot Down at least 10 Drones which were Detected over the City within the last few hours, with Damage from Debris and “Successful Impacts” affecting multiple Residential Buildings; it was additionally stated that Emergency Services are currently on-scene of at least 1 Fire though there are No Injures being reported.

fdr

Yeah, Nah... Seriously?

Russia moves it's lips again.

The first video is of a drone happily flying along at altitude and being "shot down" presumably, without any fire from the ground. What hit it? there is no HMG or LMG or missiles being fired, the drone miraculously self immolates.

Maskirovka should be spelt MOSCOWVERA. Didn't happen, but, Vlad, whatever floats your boat. The Ukrainians are being attacked by Russia indiscriminately, and suddenly you, Vlad, expect the world at large to believe that they change their tactic that has put the world on their side and shown Russia as being a callous Nekulturny country, and they suddenly throw that away for no strategic benefit? Really,

I put this into the Liar Liar category, which is really all things Russian.

Or we are to believe Mr Putin, and his team that these are factually valid images, coming from the guys who

• Blew up their own apartment blocks, twice and tried another time;
• Falsified images of HMMWVs etc destroyed in a commotion by Russians inside Russia, to "show" that they had killed dozens of the revolutionary Russians....
• Lied to Russia about the Moskva... (it did sink guys... )
• Lied about the Ivan Khurs...
• Lied....

Was really neat that a drone can attack the flagpole of the Crimlin, "It is 123 meters tall, and has a view of the surrounding English countryside.... "

Russia lied about Sergey Magnitsky, a man of infinitely greater courage than Putin, murdered Anna Stepanovna Politkovskaya, and around 150 other journalists telling the truth, murdered the opposition to his criminal gang, defenestrated many of his loyal followers, and basically just added to the depravity synonymous with the name Russia. Japan and Germany are glad, though, Russia has surpassed in infamy all that have gone before, and that is a pretty impressive feat. Bravo, Vlad. There are Russian heroes, there is Alexi Navalny, there are the others that fight against the evil that sits in the high tower, and there are those Russians that hated Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin so much they travelled at their own expense to join a bunch of foreign defenders against Vlad, they hate Vlad enough that they will give their lives defending another country from their criminal despotic leader. That takes some effort to achieve that level of response.

We are witnessing the second collapse of empire that Russia has brutally maintained for hundreds of years in various guises. Russia has no god given right to supremacy, that went out with Hitler, but then, given that Vlad's dad was a SS supporter in round 2, that may be the apple-tree-radius playing out, and perhaps he really believes that Russia has a destiny that doesn't involve bogs, Lada's and cheap vodka, the things like toilet seats that it is apparently worth desecrating the name of a nation and shaming it for generations to come to achieve, all for one man, "Robbing Hoodlum" .

just sayin'

ORAC

It is indeed a high probability this is a Kremlin false-flag operation - especially looking at the targets and lack of casualties.

The drone footage also raises many questions, as the drones shown would not have the range to reach Moscow from Ukraine - and will invite questions as t9 why the were only intercepted once the6 reached Moscow itself.

ORAC

“They were just ordinary tourist drones wishing to inspect the famous dome of St Basil’s cathedral in Moscow”…..