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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 22nd April 2024 | 13:56
  #10201 (permalink)  
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Q: What would a defeated Russia look like?

A: Professor Snyder answers.

I thought it was a very reasonable answer and quite a positive one.

https://x.com/intellect_vids/status/...-NZ5fB5v4R2Axg
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 17:54
  #10202 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by kamanya
Q: What would a defeated Russia look like?

A: Professor Snyder answers.

I thought it was a very reasonable answer and quite a positive one.

https://x.com/intellect_vids/status/...-NZ5fB5v4R2Axg
I think the most worrisome aspect of a defeated Russia is that it's hard to come up with a scenario where Putin remains in power after such a defeat - and even harder to come up with a scenario where he remains alive after his fall from power.
It can be pretty frightening to contemplate what Putin might do when faced with that outcome.
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 18:09
  #10203 (permalink)  
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From: front seat, facing forwards
And what or who comes next.
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 18:16
  #10204 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by petit plateau
There is a lot of blame to go around. We all need to do better. That is my general sentiment. Clearly something is getting lost in translation.
Yes.
Interesting observation here ...
Earlier this April, an anonymous Ukrainian senior military officer told Politico that "F-16s were needed in 2023; they won't be right for 2024," while experts have told Newsweek that the promised number may be too small to make a strategic difference across the entire front line.

"A single system can't change the situation on the battlefield," NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told German newspaper Bild earlier this month. "This isn't a silver bullet that could change the course of the war."

But as Ukraine's artillery shortage intensifies, allowing Russian mechanized forces to ramp up tactical gains, while degraded air defense capabilities permit Russian aviation to penetrate deeper into Ukrainian held territory, F-16s could provide much-needed (if limited) relief.
While that source was at least partly right, in terms of timeliness, he had neither the trained ground crews, the trained pilots, nor the logistics in place to have the F-16's do what the UKAF MiGs had been doing: fight to their full effectiveness. But the Vipers are coming, which is good news.

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Old 22nd April 2024 | 20:23
  #10205 (permalink)  
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by just another jocky
And what or who comes next.
Whatever it is, will be a surprise, there are nearly infinite permutations, I just tend to prefer the ones where Vlad is in a ditch warming the passers by, and not by his questionable charm.

Russia wheels are falling off the troika, (oops, perhaps rails are coming off the runners...)

True change will only come along when Pavlov, the average Russki punter starts to bite the hand that whips it. So far, thy have only had 1,400 years of install obsequiousness to power, so that should end well...

"...popcorn, popcorn, go!" Waiting for the sequel: Somalia is starting to look like an advanced and enlightened nation with a roaring economy compared to Vlad's shack d'ill repute. Somalia has better technicals, or did back in the day.

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Old 22nd April 2024 | 20:34
  #10206 (permalink)  
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
About 20 years ago I had to brief the one star each day on the results of operations the previous 24 hours. Included figures were KIA and EKIA. The former number was confirmed kills/dead enemy; in other words, someone out in the op area was able to count the bodies. The latter number was "estimated" and was usually two to three times the former number. It was not, as far as I could tell, relied on in any way ...but the pattern remained consistent the whole time I was in that billet.
See above. Prepare to be amazed, but it's interesting that what you estimate matches what I saw on a daily basis in terms of info generated from activities on the ground.
Yep; might be, but depending on how well the Russians take care of their wounded ... somewhere between 50 K and 150 K looks to be a plausible estimate.
Normally that would be a reasonable assumption, I suspect that the figures are going to be far higher.
  • Russia is quicker using a 7.62 than bandaids, probably cheaper too;
  • The lethality of the Russian ransoms is way up there, near the sale orbit as their turrets;
  • Russia has taken the habits honed on the Somme and Stalingrad and made them more lethal to their own side;
  • Pretty sure that we ave seen FP video that gives parts of Russians that exceed the normally expected figures by multiples;
  • The employment of drones has reduced the rounds per strike massively. When a drone chases the guy around the tree, until he runs into the drone, the Pk is considerably higher that prior events. Think, Basra, and what that did to car parking.
Will be surprised if Vlad not running around 1:1, this is no better than Round I. The sad bit is that V V P hasn't swan dived out of a tall tower as yet.
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 20:44
  #10207 (permalink)  
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by ORAC
Avdiivka - Two Russian soldiers are discussing how Russia is winning…..
Second best army in that trench.

What a waste of the future to one egotists visions of grandeur.
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 20:56
  #10208 (permalink)  
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From: 3rd Rock, #29B
Originally Posted by ORAC
**BREAKING**
Thread 🧵

#Ukrainian strike on #Russian Navy base at Sevastopol in Crimea appears to have damaged, possibly seriously (TBC), the submarine support ship Kommuna (ref H I Sutton - Covert Shores ).

Kommuna gets a degree of sympathy because she is an ancient and beautiful ship, 112 years old(!). But objectively she is a legitimate target and provides Russian navy with valuable capabilities. She often participates in submarine trials and can conduct seabed warfare.


ORAC, me old matzot, have you been standing close to the rum barrel? While 'tis true that beauty is in the eye of the beholder, methinks y'all better lay ooff the scrumpy and go to spec savers. Not even Brunell hisself would call her anything other than, "comely". She may be prettier than the littoral lumps, but, golly.

You can probably get great parking for the car, and some free food for the being eye dog!

woof!

(she would look better with 500 fathoms overhead, and Vlad on the manifest)
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 22:17
  #10209 (permalink)  
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From: Peripatetic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-aid-package

The UK will send more Storm Shadow long-range missiles to Ukraine as part of its single biggest military aid package to the country since Russia’s invasion, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said.

As well as the Storm Shadows, which are precision-guided cruise missiles with a firing range in excess of 250 kilometers (155 miles), Britain is also sending more than 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, Sunak’s office said. The package amounts to £500 million ($620 million) of new spending, taking total UK military aid to Ukraine this financial year to £3 billion.….

As part of the new funding, Britain will also procure drones to be sent to Ukraine, scaling up domestic defense supply chains.

The package also includes some 60 boats, comprising offshore raiding craft, dive boats and maritime guns, as well as more than 400 vehicles, including “Husky” vehicles and over 160 other armored vehicles. Some 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition will also be included.
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Old 22nd April 2024 | 22:56
  #10210 (permalink)  
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The problem with repeating the lopsided casualty figures is that Russian leaders are actually proud of the huge sacrifices they have made in the past, and enjoy being number one in the world. "We lost more than you lot did in WW2!"

So rather than depressing them or degrading their will to push on, such death lists may actually serve to feed the trolls with borscht and caviar.
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Old 23rd April 2024 | 02:55
  #10211 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
What I would like to see the U.K. send all those boats and outboards seized during illegal immigrant crossings.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...le%20smugglers.


..


Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd April 2024 at 13:47.
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Old 23rd April 2024 | 03:08
  #10212 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
The way snipers are holding the front.

​​​​​​​
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Old 23rd April 2024 | 11:42
  #10213 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread

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Old 23rd April 2024 | 11:47
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
More Lithuanian aid arriving in Ukraine, they do not get enough credit, the armed L-39ZA they handed over to Ukraine recently, although it hadn't flown in a couple of years was Lithuania's SOLE combat aircraft.

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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:01
  #10215 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Please not these posts below by Koda are I believe from a Russian.

Now I must admit while watching this, I wasn't errmmm looking at the gun being fired...

https://twitter.com/Roberto05246129/status/1782179065698324789

..

Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd April 2024 at 13:04.
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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:04
  #10216 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Captured Leo 2a5 to be transported back to Russia.


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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:13
  #10217 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
Himars have taken down another S-400 battery. Decoy?

https://twitter.com/Roberto05246129/status/1782715266398405113


..

Last edited by NutLoose; 23rd April 2024 at 12:41.
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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:20
  #10218 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
They have taken down the TV mast in Kharkiv, about time Moscow went off the air too..

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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:45
  #10219 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread


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Old 23rd April 2024 | 12:51
  #10220 (permalink)  
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From: Falling off the end of the thread
They're readying deliveries, Bradley's in Poland near the border awaiting the go to deliver.



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