Not sure if this relates to the recent reported loss of a Tu22:

Perhaps a better perspective....

WW2 militaria deaths by country:

Yugoslavia = 300,000 to 446,000
USA = 407,300
UK (and Crown Colonies) = 383,700
Italy = 341,000
Romania = 300,000
Poland = 240,000
France = 210,000

So, potentially, Russia may well have lost in just 2 years of fighting in Ukraine, already more than almost any other country that fought in WW2 other than China, Japan, Germany and USSR.

According to BBC, Russians KIA are 50000
I think BBC is more reliable than X accounts

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853

I think the Ukraine numbers at both killed and wounded, so maybe not a good comparison.

The important figure is not how many you have lost but how many you are prepared to lose? In a war of attrition Russia wins. Which is why letting this war enter into a period of attrition was a mistake. One we will regret long term.

Technically, the BBC gives 51k as a baseline figure. In other words, this is the number of combat deaths (excluding "DNR" and "LNR" ) that could be conclusively established. They have also used indirect methods, such as monitoring changes in the rate of cemetery growth and excess mortality in military age men. Those figures suggest something approaching twice the number of KIA and up to 123k if you include DNR and LNR (which I presume you would count as Russian losses).

I think that the UAF figures are (intentionally) not clear about whether they refer to casualties or killed, but 450k casualties would be about right given 100-120k KIA.

Lithuania delivering trainer jet to Ukraine.
Along with rocket pods...

The missing 4th pilot has been located and is dead, normally the loss of a crew would be tinged with sadness but they were targeting civilians and while they have jets, crews are a finite supply, so the more they lose the better..

Russia is restoring old BMP 1’s

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Norway handing over more AD systems to Ukraine.

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According to the account on the BBS WS, the criteria are even more stringent than that - the figure quoted is for deaths that are identifiable by name, from a range of sources including social media, press, cemetery inscriptions, etc.

I'd be amazed if the actual number of KIA didn't come to twice, or even three times that number.

Russian resupply lines that Ukraine need to deal with.



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Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if its not currently well in excess of 100k currently, and more likely 150k+.

150,000 KIA possibly at the upper range of estimates, but not implausible.
Given the brutality of the fighting, the meatwave tactics, likely appx 1-2-3 KIA for every vehicle destroyed for a start (?), 60 troops here and 60 sailors there in a single attack... 150K would average to about 200 KIA per day. And that unfortunate figure could very well be in the ballpark.
Double that for wounded with a very approximate rule of thumb?
450K total casualties quite possible.

Reliable data is scarce. The daily UKR data on Russian losses is seemingly KIA+WIA, and has been fairly informative daily data that has been plausible imho when you do various ratios (e.g. casulaties per vehicle/asset etc). The BBC KIA data is an undercount as you point out, but is at least a lower bound on KIA. There is also a data hole in the MIA area which may account for the gap between Ukraine's own stated KIA number and some reports of an actual KIA number that is higher, i.e. the stated KIA one perhaps excludes many MIA.

It is not good that USA internal politics have forced a war of attrition on to Ukraine over the last 6-months, and that failing can be shared very widely amongst the remainder of the Western allies who all still have not sufficiently resourced Ukraine's efforts to defend itself. But we are where we are. I sincerely hope that the removal of the USA blockage stabilises the short term, and that later in the year the F16 arrival makes both a quantitative and qualitative difference. Let us hope that penny packet arrivals of F16 do not lead to undue F16 (and crew/groundforce) attrition as they will get heavily targetted.

Avdiivka - Two Russian soldiers are discussing how Russia is winning…..

My local museum has one of those. Probably in better condition

Must be contemplating how they will hold all the territory they have stolen, with so little equipment left, and then there's the extra buffer zone that comrade Putin reckons they will need to add on.

Lithuania has annexed Belarus? Who knew? 😏
IM