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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 21st Mar 2024, 10:14
  #9421 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
You are accepting that Russia has the right to behave as if Ukraine is part of Russia when it is not. Putin's narrative has no validity outside Russia's borders.
I accept no such thing, nor did I imply it
Putin sees Ukraine as part of Russia and will act accordingly regardless of what we think so we have to address the realities of the situation. I asked the question because I find it hard visualise how the use of NATO forces can be used without there being a credible and sustainable end state. What are the options and what are the likely enemy responses?
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 10:32
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"I am suffocating, goodbye" and "I'm burning and I'm trapped under rubble, forgive me for everything" - These are the messages and calls that families of dead and injured Kharkiv residents received after today's Russian attack on Kharkiv. As of now, it is known that 5 people have died, 9 were injured and 5 more are missing.
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 10:34
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Originally Posted by Video Mixdown
You are accepting that Russia has the right to behave as if Ukraine is part of Russia when it is not. Putin's narrative has no validity outside Russia's borders.
An unfortunate rephrase is required;

"Putin's narrative has no validity outside of what he and his cohorts consider to be Russia's borders."

The rhetoric has been building actually since before the start of the Special War - it is scarily only a small step to invoke (using Stalin-era "logic", of which there seems to be a lot with current management) the concept of the Special War being necessary to eject an invalid regime from historically Russian lands, blah blah etc
Sold as a mini Great Patriotic War of sorts, if you will - and I suspect a lot of people might go along with it...

PS Providing kit (and even advisors perhaps, as long as a Uke actually pushes the buttons?) is one thing - foreign frontline "combat boots-on-the-ground" rather ups the ante however.

Last edited by konstantin; 21st Mar 2024 at 10:48. Reason: Addition
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 11:13
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
And if significant NATO forces became directly involved on the ground and in the air, what is the end state to be?
How would Russia not see that as an existential threat and would it not play directly to Putin’s narrative?
We shouldn't be trying to climb into the mind of the enemy to sympathise with it. We should be climbing into the mind of the enemy to destroy it.
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 12:29
  #9425 (permalink)  
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Ukraine just successfully deployed an FPV drone with a semi-autonomous targeting system, meaning it is far less vulnerable to electronic warfare (which jams the connection between the pilot and the drone) than traditional FPV drones.

I'd expect this technology to rapidly mature.

Normally when an FPV drone flies into a jamming field and connection is lost between the pilot and the UAV the drone falls out of the sky.

With this new targeting system, the pilot is can designate a target which the FPV will attack even after connection is severed by jamming.

​​​​​​​https://x.com/sternenko/status/17703...HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 12:52
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
We shouldn't be trying to climb into the mind of the enemy to sympathise with it. We should be climbing into the mind of the enemy to destroy it.
Why on earth do you think I am sympathetic?
“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”
Sun Tzu
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 14:46
  #9427 (permalink)  
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In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies.
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 16:03
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Originally Posted by golfbananajam
Not withstanding the very real threat that he might just press the button and start nuclear holocaust.
So we let him win?
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 16:46
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Originally Posted by DogTailRed2
Because your comments imply that NATO's actions are playing into Putin's hands which is essentially saying "We shouldn't do this else make Putin mad".
It's no different from people that say we should negotiate with Putin presumably out of indifference, fear?
NATO should do what NATO needs to do and to hell with the invader.
Far from it, however, part of campaign planning is to anticipate the likely response of an enemy to your actions. It is not a question of making Putin mad (some would say he already is) but working out how far and how fast he can be pushed. But you have not addressed my question on the desired end state as that will determine what "NATO should do" and equally, what it should not do.

Last edited by Ninthace; 21st Mar 2024 at 21:10. Reason: Sp
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 18:12
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Originally Posted by Ninthace
And if significant NATO forces became directly involved on the ground and in the air, what is the end state to be?
How would Russia not see that as an existential threat and would it not play directly to Putin’s narrative?
And what would China do?
A representative of China's Ministry of Defense reportedly stated on Saturday that Beijing is "ready to intervene" if the United States (US) or North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) decides to attack Russia.(...)
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/wo...k-russia/story
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 19:00
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Originally Posted by Peter_K
And what would China do?
Is that China's stated position, or just the mumblings of some official? Of course China wouldn't do anything without demanding something significant in return. Russia is already rightly wary of China, given recent reports on them wargaming an attack from that direction.
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Old 21st Mar 2024, 19:36
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Oops ...

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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 01:48
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Surprisingly, some honesty on Russian tv.

Russian expert blurts out Putin plan on TV
https://www.krone.at/3298817
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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 04:19
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Only through expansion at whatever cost can Putin continue to hold on to political power, and to his own life.
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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 06:25
  #9435 (permalink)  
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The control room of the Dnipro Dam took a direct hit from Russian missiles this morning.

The dam itself is intact.

That is the turbine/generator hall, not the control room. Control rooms on hydro plants are usually fairly small and tucked away in one corner. I suspect most of the smoke is from burning hydraulic oil inside the building and transformer oil outside. Neither is good.



Hmm, there is also significant damage on the other side/ top side.


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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 07:09
  #9436 (permalink)  
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During this morning's attack on Ukraine, a Russian missile targeted the Zaporizhzhia Hydro Power Plant dam. The dam is holding on, but the missile hit the trolley with people headed to their early work shift.

There is no threat of the dam breach - states "Ukrhydroenergo" operating the said power plant.

"The fire at the station continues. Emergency services and electrical engineers are working on site fighting the aftermass of the numerous airstrikes. There is no threat of a breach. The situation at the dam of the station is under control,"the company stated.

———————————————-

“The largest attack on the Ukrainian energy sector recently. Russian forces fired more than 60 Shahed drones and almost 90 missiles last night” - President Zelenskyy.

What we know as of now:

▪️ Kharkiv. Russians have carried out more than 15 attacks on energy facilities, and the city is almost without electricity.

▪️ Zaporizhzhia. Russians launched 12 missile attacks. Infrastructure facilities and civilian buildings were damaged, and there are casualties. Dnipro HPP was targeted.

▪️ Kryvyi Rih and Sumy region. Emergency shutdown schedules are introduced.

▪️ Vinnytsia, Lviv, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Khmelnytskyi regions. Another attack on a critical infrastructure facility.

▪️ Poltava region. Preventive shutdowns of substations have been applied and a schedule of emergency shutdowns has been introduced. Power engineers are working to restore power supply.


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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 07:18
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Just imagine if Ukraine could respond in-kind....
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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 08:48
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What the heck.. ?!

US has urged Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries
https://www.ft.com/content/98f15b60-...7-cbdde122ac0c

Excerpt:
"The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation, according to three people familiar with the discussions. The repeated warnings from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR, the people told the Financial Times.
"
True or Rumour/Fake?
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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 08:51
  #9439 (permalink)  
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Reactor back down to running on standby diesel generators….
​​​​​​​⚡️Energoatom: Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant on verge of blackout.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power station currently occupied by Russia, is in an “extremely dangerous” situation following a Russian mass missile attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on March 22, Energoatom announced.
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Old 22nd Mar 2024, 09:06
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Originally Posted by 51bravo
"The US has urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure, warning the drone strikes risk driving up global oil prices and provoking retaliation..."
An interesting remark in one media report just googled...
“Nothing terrifies a sitting American president more than a rise in fuel prices during an election year,” said Bob McNally, president of consulting firm Rapidan Energy and a former White House energy adviser.
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