ORAC

Not sure if that cuts off Crimea, but it does Hungary, Slovakia and Transnistria as well as the rest of Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece.

That doesn’t been they will be gasless - the gas will instead be provided by Ukraine and imports through Greece from non-Russian sources…

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...on-2024-01-19/

Ukraine is not going to renew the gas transit contract with the Russian company Gazprom -- Ukrainian Media

The Ukrainian Minister of Energy, German Galuschenko, told reporters there are no plans to renew or make additional agreements noting that "the network of gas pipelines passed the stress test and is now ready for life without the transit of Russian gas."

Rockie_Rapier

A few days ago the option of sending Taurus to the UK, to free up more RAF Stormshadow to send to the UKraine was being discussed. This would also mean that Ukraine would not have to integrate another type of missile to Ukrainian A/C. What's not to like?

Of course, if the mission prep. gear also had to go to the UK, and Germany has only one set...

NutLoose

More like Excuses"R"uS and an attempt to put to bed the question once and for all, I canno believe they have only one computer system for them all, that would be barking mad and irresponsible, one bomb and the whole lot are scrap.

ORAC

Another refinery was hit last night near Moscow, the Kremlin is suppressing information but damage is visible on satellite photos.

The whole place is on fire.

Question for the experts: Any idea what did this?


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Geriaviator

Germany's stalling and leaking makes me wonder if Scholz wants to set up a non-aggression pact with Russia. Oh, wait a minute ...

ANOpax

Er, ORAC, I think you ARE one of the experts when it comes to the prosecution of this war.
It has been said before, but please keep up the excellent work.

NutLoose

Latest on Russia's push out of Adviivka

NutLoose

More on Refineries.

ORAC

"How many planes does Russia have? This is a complex question, but I'll let you in on a little secret: The numbers listed in international indexes are often quite far from the reality," writes military historian Andrii Kharuk in this guest op-ed.

https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-...s-russia-have/

Opinion: How many planes does Russia have?

alf5071h

"With the European elections potentially bringing more Ukraine sceptics to the Parliament, securing further assistance for Ukraine will become more difficult. Despite the costs, Europeans must be honest about the risks of a concessional peace deal that would be unlikely to bring a lasting peace to Ukraine, or Europe.

Ukrainians know that a concessional deal that cedes territory will not bring peace to what will remain of the country or allow it to prosper – that’s why many would refuse to accept it.

Russia will only come to the negotiating table when President Putin feels that the country has occupied as much Ukrainian territory as possible – which means further territorial gains – so that he can sell the peace deal as a palatable win to his military and political elites and people."

'Supporting Ukraine is costly – but Europe should be clear on the risks of letting Russia win.'

https://odi.org/en/insights/supporti...ng-russia-win/

note links to similar content
e.g: https://odi.org/en/insights/russia-u...watch-in-2024/

petit plateau

In some of those images you can see a row of what may be flare stacks, about one per unit, for inventory blowdown and depresurisation and any offgas disposal. The units are sort-of lined up along a internal access road, and the unit layouts are sort of similar such that the flare stacks also line up. This would be a relatively typical layout for good engineering reasons.

I point this out because in the fuzzy image with the most ? flames ? the ? flames ? (or ? steam ? or ? smoke ?) ) are also in a rough row. It is possible that the image was taken in the middle of a emergency shutdown. Any sensible operator would hit the ESD button if they thought they were under attack - there are very few instances where you might try to avoid an ESD, really only if you were sure you had flare header damage. So almost always ESD. Therefore do not rush to assume al the flames/etc are caused by damage as they may be perfectly normal flare events from an ESD.

However there is unit damage showing on some of the clearer photos. It does not seem to be associated with the columns but is instead associated with some other modules. Without having access to either horizontal imagery and/or plant drawings one cannot be sure what it might be. I think there are rain/snow roofs over those modules so what is underneath is unclear. The ejecta sprays out, which suggests pressurised to an extent. At a guess MEG/TEG boiler units, heat exchangers, perhaps (but less likely) separators and/or pump units or smaller compressors. Also depends on the feedstock nature.

As to what caused the damage, difficult to say. Personally I'd be targetting something with high pressure flammable inventory that is difficult to repair. The columns are often easier to repair than some of the other stuff I have noted - they tend to be low pressure steelwork and structured packing. Anyway the targets I'd pick would tend to want a mixed penetrating and fragmenting warhead, precisely aimed, going in at a steep oblique dive from a particular direction to avoid the tall towers en route. The ejecta would tend to point back down the inbound track unless there were secondaries. I see no sign of secondaries.

The Helpful Stacker

Didn't Germany and Russia do something similar before?

How did that work out in the end?

ORAC

More on Moldova and Russian inspired unrest…

President of Moldova Maia Sandu does not intend to sign the decree on the appointment of Yevgenia Gutsul as a member of the Moldovan government.

Commenting on Yevgenia Gutsul's visit to Russia during the briefing in Chisinau, the Moldovan president said that "the Russian Federation has made it clear that it relies on criminal groups to destabilize the situation in Moldova."

"There are state authorities that should assess the legality of a statement and if it is worth punishing for it," Maia Sandu said.

Also, she answered the question, "Is there any chance that Yevgenia Gutsul will become a member of the government?":

"I continue to declare that a person who works in a criminal group, not for the citizens of the Republic of Moldova, not in the interests of the inhabitants of the autonomy, a person who makes statements against her own country, has nothing to do in the government of the Republic of Moldova," concluded Maia Sandu.

Background:

Putin met with the bashkan (head) of Moldova's autonomous region of Gagauzia, Eugenia Gutsul, who traveled to Russia.

The head of Gagauzia said she discussed with Putin "complex regional and geopolitical issues, in the epicenter of which the region is located."…..

pilotmike

Yup, the air doesn't care which side of the gear it passes, and cares even less what the consequential effects are!

NutLoose

Damn Mike, the spell checker and I missed its auto replacement… negligent should read negligible.

NutLoose

Romania to train 50 Ukrainian pilots to fly the F-16. 👌

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ORAC

Used to support the wa4 as military vehicles have almost entirely been destroyed..

I don't think people appreciate how expensive Russian logistics are becoming. 24% interest on a truck lease has made it impossible to replace a mid sized company's fleet. Chinese & Ru trucks are expensive less fuel efficient and this is the entire margin.

Russian companies are canceling truck leases due to costs of 24% interest and outsourcing transportation. Only companies with very large fleets can continue operating. Also Chinese trucks are as expensive as EU ones but of lower quality.

​​​​​​​https://t.co/bHGv1YfWO0

Winemaker

Re the photos of damaged refineries:
Looks like steam to me. We learned about distillation columns in wine school; they are amazing systems with constant throughput and the distilled product drawn constantly out at different levels separating the fractions. A good target assuming one can start a fire, which should be easy..... This doesn't look like fire.

megan

Program aired in Oz last night, reporting from the Russian side by British journalist Sean Langan.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-...ide/103601754#

artee

Excellent program. The Ukrainian ambassador to Oz is frothing at the mouth.