Ukraine War Thread Part 2
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Russia’s Long Range Missile Stocks based on Ukraine’s 🇺🇦 reporting as of July 24th, 2023.
All guesswork of course…
Ukraine's public estimate of Russian missile production is:
60 Kh-101s+Kalibrs per month,
5 Iskanders,
2 Khinzals.
They had previously estimated Kh-35 production at 40/month.
All guesswork of course…
Ukraine's public estimate of Russian missile production is:
60 Kh-101s+Kalibrs per month,
5 Iskanders,
2 Khinzals.
They had previously estimated Kh-35 production at 40/month.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
An indication of the scale of the war currently being fought - as a comparison the entire British army is currently composed of 8 brigade, and UKR has 11 fighting in a 30km stretch of a 1000km long front…
GeoConfirmed UKR [CO] - Velyka Novosilka Axis - Situation Update.
Based on geolocated footage:
Elements (!) of these units are fighting in this axis, on a 30km-wide front line:
Marine Brigades:
- 35th Marine Brigade
- 36th Marine Brigade
- 37th Marine Brigade
Mechanized/Infantry Brigades:
- 31st Mechanized Brigade
- 23nd Mechanized Brigade
- 68th Separate Jager Infantry Brigade "Oleksa Dovbush"
- 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar"
Tank Brigade:
- 4th Tank Brigade named after Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi
Reconnaissance Units:
- 74th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion
Territorial Defense Brigades:
- 7th Separate Battalion AREY UDA of 129th Kryvyi Rih Defense Brigade
- 110th Zaporizhia Defense Brigade
Support - Drone units:
- Aerial reconnaissance unit 'Luftwaffe'
- Birds of Magyar, 45th Special Tactical Air Reconnaissance Group
Support - Artillery Brigades:
- 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance brigade
- 47th Artillery Brigade
- 55th Artillery Brigade
GeoConfirmed UKR [CO] - Velyka Novosilka Axis - Situation Update.
Based on geolocated footage:
Elements (!) of these units are fighting in this axis, on a 30km-wide front line:
Marine Brigades:
- 35th Marine Brigade
- 36th Marine Brigade
- 37th Marine Brigade
Mechanized/Infantry Brigades:
- 31st Mechanized Brigade
- 23nd Mechanized Brigade
- 68th Separate Jager Infantry Brigade "Oleksa Dovbush"
- 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade "Kholodnyi Yar"
Tank Brigade:
- 4th Tank Brigade named after Hetman Ivan Vyhovskyi
Reconnaissance Units:
- 74th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion
Territorial Defense Brigades:
- 7th Separate Battalion AREY UDA of 129th Kryvyi Rih Defense Brigade
- 110th Zaporizhia Defense Brigade
Support - Drone units:
- Aerial reconnaissance unit 'Luftwaffe'
- Birds of Magyar, 45th Special Tactical Air Reconnaissance Group
Support - Artillery Brigades:
- 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance brigade
- 47th Artillery Brigade
- 55th Artillery Brigade
If as has been suggested that Wagner have a go at Poland, my initial thought is that Poland should be able to deal with the matter themselves without Poland Triggering Article 5.
Would the NATO Assembly trigger it for them? Or another NATO member?
My initial thought is that Poland would want to handle this themselves and destroy Wagner completely.
As they are mercenaries, are they subject to the same protections under the Geneva Convention? Are they classed as civilians / irregular troops or do mercenaries have their own classification.
I can't see at lower ranks the Poles giving them much in the way ofprotection, an easy time.
We may have discussed this before, but as they may stupidly strike through Belarus do the rules change?
Would the NATO Assembly trigger it for them? Or another NATO member?
My initial thought is that Poland would want to handle this themselves and destroy Wagner completely.
As they are mercenaries, are they subject to the same protections under the Geneva Convention? Are they classed as civilians / irregular troops or do mercenaries have their own classification.
I can't see at lower ranks the Poles giving them much in the way of
We may have discussed this before, but as they may stupidly strike through Belarus do the rules change?
NATO Article 5 is quite clear, worth the 15 second read.
Takeaway -
- The obligation is triggered by an armed attack.
- The use of force is anticipated and is permitted to restore and maintain the security of the member state(s)
The states that permit that could be on the receiving end of a response if that is considered necessary to achieve the outcome of restoring and maintaining security. Not a certainty, but it is within the chalk lines.
Would think that consequences would be on the heads of the targets that transgress the border of Poland, and Belarus would be held accountable in the UN by further sanctions. Poland isn't going to ask nicely for surrendering of anyone with a gun and standing on their turf, not going to be interested in the cost of litigation and incarceration of mercenary messengers love childs of Putin/Lukashenka's hideous courtship.
Spoiler
Article 6 is worth a further 15 seconds to cogitate
Spoiler
Recent combat footage from the Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade. Sadly, no translation at present.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rtez...да
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rtez...да
After all the negotiations, a repair centre-for Leo tanks has been opened in the Bumar factory (close to Katowice ) in Poland, announced by the Polish Defence Minister , Mariusz Blaszczak. The first tanks for repair have already been received.
Reparaturzentrum für Leopard-Panzer in Polen geht in Betrieb
Ein von Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius (SPD) angemahntes Reparaturzentrum in Polen für an die Ukraine gelieferte Leopard-Panzer ist fertiggestellt und in Betrieb genommen worden. Das gab der polnische Verteidigungsminister Mariusz Blaszczak am Samstagabend bekannt. Die ersten beiden Leopard sind bereits aus der Ukraine im Bumar-Werk eingetroffen", schrieb der nationalkonservative Minister am Samstag auf
(. . .)
Reparaturzentrum für Leopard-Panzer in Polen geht in Betrieb
Ein von Bundesverteidigungsminister Boris Pistorius (SPD) angemahntes Reparaturzentrum in Polen für an die Ukraine gelieferte Leopard-Panzer ist fertiggestellt und in Betrieb genommen worden. Das gab der polnische Verteidigungsminister Mariusz Blaszczak am Samstagabend bekannt. Die ersten beiden Leopard sind bereits aus der Ukraine im Bumar-Werk eingetroffen", schrieb der nationalkonservative Minister am Samstag auf
(. . .)
As I understood it from other sources: Bumar has been doing repairs to Polish Leo's for years now. Any Polish Leo's transferred to Ukraine went with an understanding that they will be repaired back home. Such capacities just don't grow overnight, so it's natural that we simply see a continuation of old business. It may take 6 months to open a new repair-centre from scratch.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ct-2023-07-24/
Belarus arms emergency ministry to be ready in case of armed conflict
Reuters July 25, 2023July 25 (Reuters) -
The Belarusian ministry of emergency situations is completing the arming and military training of its personnel to be ready to aid the defence and internal ministries in the event of an armed conflict, the head of the emergency ministry said on Monday.
Emergency Minister Vadim Sinyavsky told state Belarus 1 television that employees will be ready to assist the ministries "in the event of an armed conflict or some kind of riots in which a significant number of personnel must be involved."…
Belarus arms emergency ministry to be ready in case of armed conflict
Reuters July 25, 2023July 25 (Reuters) -
The Belarusian ministry of emergency situations is completing the arming and military training of its personnel to be ready to aid the defence and internal ministries in the event of an armed conflict, the head of the emergency ministry said on Monday.
Emergency Minister Vadim Sinyavsky told state Belarus 1 television that employees will be ready to assist the ministries "in the event of an armed conflict or some kind of riots in which a significant number of personnel must be involved."…
So it is Belarus role now to create a little distraction and headlines here and there: Wagner, Poland, Emergency. Don't get overly excited.
The Russian TV shows are definitely propaganda, but even they are useful. At the beginning of the war they were saying how Russia was going into Ukraine to remove the Nazi regime. Now they are about 'defending the Motherland'. What does that tell us?
Please leave those who devote their time and resources to getting on with their valuable work. You don't have to read the bits you don't like.
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Russian Propagandists on the grain situation and “the” Russians being the saviours of the world as they are now the major supplier crap.
If as has been suggested that Wagner have a go at Poland, my initial thought is that Poland should be able to deal with the matter themselves without Poland Triggering Article 5.
Would the NATO Assembly trigger it for them? Or another NATO member?
My initial thought is that Poland would want to handle this themselves and destroy Wagner completely.
As they are mercenaries, are they subject to the same protections under the Geneva Convention? Are they classed as civilians / irregular troops or do mercenaries have their own classification.
I can't see at lower ranks the Poles giving them much in the way ofprotection, an easy time.
We may have discussed this before, but as they may stupidly strike through Belarus do the rules change?
Would the NATO Assembly trigger it for them? Or another NATO member?
My initial thought is that Poland would want to handle this themselves and destroy Wagner completely.
As they are mercenaries, are they subject to the same protections under the Geneva Convention? Are they classed as civilians / irregular troops or do mercenaries have their own classification.
I can't see at lower ranks the Poles giving them much in the way of
We may have discussed this before, but as they may stupidly strike through Belarus do the rules change?
* https://www.euronews.com/2023/07/13/...fence-ministry
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You can bomb them, you can kill them, but you WILL NOT break them….
Russian Propagandists on the grain situation and “the” Russians being the saviours of the world as they are now the major supplier crap.
https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/st...25932903669761
https://twitter.com/TheKremlinYap/st...25932903669761
Gotta wonder where these guys studied law... they certainly didn't study ethics or anything associated with humanities...
The despots vocal chords chime out on RT that they consider it all fine and dandy to attack food supplies to 3rd states, and the civilian port, and to threaten naval blockade of international shipping, overlooking the fact those are war crimes, common crimes and defined as crimes against humanity, and they continue with their proposition that they still get to send their food to the same 3rd states, after having destroyed another countries, exports of the same comoddities, one that they are purportedly "not in a state of war" with???
Whatever these dolts smoke, it is probably not legal even in California.
Is there a travelling circus near by that has lost it's clowns? Perhaps there is a village in Siberia that is down their quota of idiots.
Golly.
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Gotta wonder where these guys studied law... they certainly didn't study ethics or anything associated with humanities...
The despots vocal chords chime out on RT that they consider it all fine and dandy to attack food supplies to 3rd states, and the civilian port, and to threaten naval blockade of international shipping, overlooking the fact those are war crimes, common crimes and defined as crimes against humanity, and they continue with their proposition that they still get to send their food to the same 3rd states, after having destroyed another countries, exports of the same comoddities, one that they are purportedly "not in a state of war" with???
Whatever these dolts smoke, it is probably not legal even in California.
Is there a travelling circus near by that has lost it's clowns? Perhaps there is a village in Siberia that is down their quota of idiots.
Golly.
The despots vocal chords chime out on RT that they consider it all fine and dandy to attack food supplies to 3rd states, and the civilian port, and to threaten naval blockade of international shipping, overlooking the fact those are war crimes, common crimes and defined as crimes against humanity, and they continue with their proposition that they still get to send their food to the same 3rd states, after having destroyed another countries, exports of the same comoddities, one that they are purportedly "not in a state of war" with???
Whatever these dolts smoke, it is probably not legal even in California.
Is there a travelling circus near by that has lost it's clowns? Perhaps there is a village in Siberia that is down their quota of idiots.
Golly.
Appears to me that the firehose of lies has kept up a steady pressure - a powerful and immoral weapon, and it's working a treat in Russia.
IMO, as much as it's repugnant to us, only way to counter it is to go on the info-offensive (on Russia) rather than wait and get drenched.
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Odesa, damage to the Cathedral 
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Bradley repairs in the field, engine out.
Excellent full read on the Bradleys and the repairing off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-war-vehicles/
Excellent full read on the Bradleys and the repairing off.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...-war-vehicles/
But even amid the early damage, Ukrainian troops have experienced the benefits of the new equipment. In the biggest plus, soldiers said, the Bradley protects everyone inside — typically, soldiers suffer just minor injuries if the vehicle hits an antitank mine, for example. Each Bradley is designed to carry a three-person crew and six soldiers as passengers.
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A damaged Leo, posted by the opposition but I haven't seen it before, so do not know when it happened.
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Poland, troops are heading to reinforce the borders.
Quote from elsewhere
Quote from elsewhere
A Polish Army Convoy consisting of roughly 200 Pieces of Equipment including KTO Rosomak 8x8 Wheeled-Armored Vehicles was spotted recently heading towards the Polish-Belarusian Border.
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Another KA-52 apparently down, no survivors.
According to Oryx Blog, Russia has lost 38 Ka-52s so far, not counting this one