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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

Old 1st May 2023, 10:12
  #241 (permalink)  
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Damn those Russian cigarette smoking rabbits and their burrowing.

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Old 1st May 2023, 10:36
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And Russian tin worms are playing havoc in the Leningrad region.

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Old 1st May 2023, 11:15
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Report from the ISW detailing all the bewildering number of command changes just in Summer '22. It is therefore historical, but thought it might be of interest. The second catalogues changes during/after last autumn's Ukrainian counter-attack. The linked article gives a detailed commentary.




The start of Ukrainian counteroffensives in August and September of 2022 led to w

https://understandingwar.org/backgro...-april-30-2023




Gerasimov and his affiliates likely attempted to convince Putin that they co

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Old 1st May 2023, 12:47
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Ukrainian civilian BDR, sellotape over bullet holes, I hope they were all ok


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Old 1st May 2023, 13:14
  #245 (permalink)  
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Timelapse of the battle for Bakhmut.

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Old 1st May 2023, 18:27
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Just as tanks were and artillery etc, sorry but the more the USA cowers to these thugs the more they get away with it, the US reply should have been straight and to the point, a single nuclear weapon used there will be an equal response on the city of our choosing. Ie call their bluff. If itís okay for Russia to launch attacks from out of the Country then the same should go for Ukraine.
Sorry, Nutty, but President Joe Biden doesn't answer to you.
US support to Ukraine via arms, intel, logistics, training, et al will be whatever the various minds in DC decide is the best course forward. You don't get a vote.
(1) American aid is pretty darned substantial to date, (2) so far the bipartisan support for that stance remains good, (3) and the US has more than Ukraine to worry about.
Reaching a consensus on the above is very much the child of politics (which is more of a JB topic, as is your whinge).

On the practical side as it pertains to military personnel: trying to contain the war (since prevention utterly failed ) and keep it from spreading, as well as trying to gage the effects and risks of escalation without letting Agony Aunts - like yourself - influence the decision is what is needed to avoid 1914 all over again.(Well, that's one line of thinking at Foggy Bottom, there are others). The time to stop this war was during the prevention stage: lots of blame to go around there in a lot of capitals.

Another practical consideration: the US gets to benefit from some field testing and validation of various weapons systems (and some TTP), without having to throw in a lot of boots on the ground.
That appeals to a variety of Americans whether you like it or not.
Spoiler
 

For Video Mixdown: you may be right about turning points. (I have a weird analogy going on in my head, where Mariupol looks to be St Vith to Bakhmut's Bastogne, but that's probably a reach)
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Old 1st May 2023, 21:01
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Sorry LW, I meant to put NATO not the US, there are more than one nuclear power in that organisation.

By the west / NATO failing to provide the weapons needed, longer range missiles, fighters etc containment may well fail and then you are left with the problem and costs involved with bolstering the defence of some of NATOs smaller and threatened members.
If the west had provided the weaponry as and when asked for, then the depth of Russian incursion would never have happened, something we still haven’t learnt from. As for pre invasion I was one of those saying NATO / UN ha! should have gone in as peacekeepers at the invitation of Ukraine to the disputed border.

Last edited by NutLoose; 1st May 2023 at 21:16.
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Old 1st May 2023, 21:18
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Another drone attack on Sevastopol.

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Old 1st May 2023, 21:24
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List of the U.K., new purchases planned for Ukraine including long range missiles.

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Old 1st May 2023, 22:01
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Worried?

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Old 1st May 2023, 22:05
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Update on the derailed Russian train, they’re going to need another loco.

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Old 1st May 2023, 22:12
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
List of the U.K., new purchases planned for Ukraine including long range missiles.
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Sincerely hope that any ruZZian 'diplomat' who turns up at FCDO banging on about red lines is told to foxtrot oscar.
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Old 1st May 2023, 22:56
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Sorry LW, I meant to put NATO not the US, there are more than one nuclear power in that organisation.
You will get no disagreement from me. The failure to "speak with one voice" is what IMO enabled the decision (by Vlad Vader) that the risks were less (his assessment that the dysfunctional antics of various pols would leave the field clear to do that .. and it's his own damned fault that the logistics and momentum didn't result in the Blitzkrieg he was hoping to emulate.
As for pre invasion I was one of those saying NATO / UN ha! should have gone in as peacekeepers at the invitation of Ukraine to the disputed border.
But the snag there is that the Russian veto would have rendered that viable idea (hell, viable since 2014) moot.

As to military and aviation matters, I will note that while the US has offered up a variety of kit - to include Over 1,600 Stinger anti-aircraft systems - the State Department remains a bundle of mostly useless *****, and they have been since about the time I was loitering off of the coast of Lebanon on a destroyer in the early 1980's.
United States security assistance committed to Ukraine includes:
Spoiler
 


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Old 1st May 2023, 23:40
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The hit yesterday on Pavlohrad, full view, that’s one hell of a bang


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Old 2nd May 2023, 04:34
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The hit yesterday on Pavlohrad, full view, thatís one hell of a bang




https://twitter.com/revishvilig/stat...49113964175361

For the Gunny's out there, that looks more like a FAE type explosion than a munitions dump going off, reminiscent of the fertiliser in Beirut, or coal dust. Doesn't look like munition store IMHO.

Lots of bang though... Glaziers will be busy as will the hospitals for the shard injuries.
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Old 2nd May 2023, 04:43
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Not an expert here, but 'that looks thermobaric', I thought too.
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Old 2nd May 2023, 04:47
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Interesting overhead view of Ukrainians clearing trench lines using troops on the ground and grenade dropping drones, no translation.

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Old 2nd May 2023, 04:53
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Originally Posted by fdr
For the Gunny's out there, that looks more like a FAE type explosion than a munitions dump going off, reminiscent of the fertiliser in Beirut, or coal dust. Doesn't look like munition store IMHO.

Lots of bang though... Glaziers will be busy as will the hospitals for the shard injuries.
One report on Twitter says below, how accurate that is however bearing in mind Ukraine would want to put a good PR out about it.

Russia hit Pavlograd. Reportedly a chemical plant that stored old ballistic missiles + fuel which wasn't disposed of yet. In the footage secondary explosions can be seen which look like ammunition.

READ more on it

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ity-detonating



..

Last edited by NutLoose; 2nd May 2023 at 05:06.
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Old 2nd May 2023, 09:24
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
One report on Twitter says below, how accurate that is however bearing in mind Ukraine would want to put a good PR out about it.
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For what it's worth, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast was the home of Pivdenmash (formerly Yuzhmash) which is a space/rocket design bureau and factory and IIRC it's the home of the Ukrainian part of the UK small launch rocket company Skyrora. Anyhow it's obviously consistent with the explanation that old rockets and fuel might be somewhere there. If it's a cover up it is convenient for Ukraine that it should have happened there.

Pivdenmash operated initially as "plant 586" in the Soviet Union. In 1954, Soviet aviation engineer Mikhail Yangel established the autonomous design bureau designated OKB-586, from the former chief designer's division of plant 586.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PA_Pivdenmash
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Old 2nd May 2023, 09:27
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The Russians must be getting desperate if they are now being forced to blow up things they were probably quietly hoping to 'inherit' wholesale.
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