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The Kerch Bridge Thread

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The Kerch Bridge Thread

Old 13th Oct 2022, 01:34
  #201 (permalink)  
 
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Another issue is how the pallets were fused together. There were supposedly 19 (?) pallets; to detonate them at the same time they would need to be connected with either electrical detonator wiring or primacord, unless it was thought a single detonation would trigger the others. If the pallets were reloaded to another trailer after sitting in a warehouse someone would have to connect them. According to the above FSB report they were loaded by the warehouse lifts into the final trailer. Did the driver stop somewhere and string them together? Seems a bit of a skilled thing. And, of course, how were they triggered.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 01:36
  #202 (permalink)  
 
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Russians are keeping quiet about the real reason. Aliens have used a low powered directional laser from low orbit aimed at the Russian judge, but got the power settings slightly wrong.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 01:41
  #203 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by rattman
Christo (Bellingcat) has posted the FSB brief on it, (note he just copied it makes not statements about the a factual correctness of it) The post might answer some questions

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...208339456.html

The Bellingcat link is interesting.

27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.

"using the warehouse's mechanical loader".

So the load that is the apparent cause of the Kerch bridge issue was moved from one trailer, to another. 23 Tons, Good effort. The pallets in the photo are EU standard, so they would be picked up by forklifts... not all at once, so the pallet as explosives are separate, they are not all wired together according to the info provided. The whole load is supposed to be sympathetic detonations? All at once?

The schedule now suggests the timing of this was essentially arranged back in August when schemed up. It doesn't indicate means that the load was then interfered with in order to provide a triggering device, but 2 months later, it gets to blow up. Maybe.

This load was loaded, and unloaded multiple times, and the fact that it was nitrate rich, or that there were devices attached to (presumably) various parts was not noted? It was reloaded on the day before the blast, in the presence of the driver that didn't survive the blast, and he didn't note anything unusual?

This event as described arises from the required failure of multiple border crossing screenings, of multiple handling of individual charges without detection, and some means to then set it off down track at an unknown date/time. Maybe. The locals need to revisit their processes, as they don't work if this the means by which this happened.

Still impressed that the FSB got all of this info together in the period of time since discovery and exposé.

By this story, there are disconnects that occur at various locations, but the final one is... what was loaded onto the truck at the last location? An inventory would need to be taken and the documents traced through to source to confirm that the load was indeed related to what had transpired previously. Why would it be assumed that the FSB, who have a history of messing about in other peoples rice bowls, not have controlled this whole event? There is no part of this so far that could not be done by the FSB, and as indicated, the damage and the story doesn't sit easily together.

How many companies do the FSB have in the same countries?
What evidence is there that the same load actually was explosives from the start to the finish as described.

It is reasonable to assume that if this was a truck bomb, then the last truck in this story did pick up something and proceed to the bridge. That is, there is a likely train of events from Armavir to Kerch, yet even then there is a period where the vehicle was able to be accessed, although that is unlikely. There is a fair chance that the load from Armavir to Kerch was explosive. If the FSB was involved, and are doing the investigation, there is no confirmation that anything from Ukraine-Moldova-Bulgaria-Georgia-Armenia-Georgia-North Ossetia-Russia to Armavir is not of FSB obfuscation, involving props. What was picked up in Armavir, as far as evidence that excludes any involvement by FSB?

I'm conflicted on this, as I don't think that Ukraine would not have justification for any of this, however it is a misstep in part that is not characteristic of Ukraine to date, but which is the hallmark of Russia. Any explanation that occurs that involves Russian investigation is suspect, there has not been many occasions where Russia will act in a disruptive manner.

Recall back to why Russia went into Afghanistan. This whole event at the bridge is reminiscent of a re-run of the events immediately preceding the "help" from the USSR to Afghanistan, that started at the hands of Russian largesse.

About the only thing that is certain is that the bridge needs some maintenance work done.

Last edited by fdr; 13th Oct 2022 at 02:32. Reason: "and this begats that's..."
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 01:41
  #204 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr

……

…Unfortunately for the assumption of the blast coming from underneath, that is almost exactly in the center of the scorched area of the bit that was blown downwards... and is the midpoint more or less of the inter-pier distance. That is the gap before the most northerly expansion joint which failed as well. but without obvious scorching.

There are a bunch of unknowns, known, unknown etc... but the main thing is that the truck is going to be around the midpoint of where the explosion was located. If the truck was doing 120, it would be 33mtrs beyond the epicenter... and it would have gone into the drink on the section of road that collapsed from the western expansion joint. There is a possibility that the truck was past the next pier, and went into the water as the bridge collapsed. That arises as there is a difference in the soot that would be around the position that the truck would have got to at the higher speed... and it is of a truck size masking of the sooting...



…The truck could be right in the center. The wind was around 16kts steady from the right side... a fireball from below is going to be brought over the same area as is scorched, and as yet we have not seen any of the undersides of the section that collapsed in the V (for Victory).



Yep. The blast ‘shadows’ look to be telling a story. As to the ghosts in the dark areas they could well be from the helicopter water bombers or a fire fighting boat water gun washing the areas. Or there could be a shadow from the prime mover ?

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Old 13th Oct 2022, 02:37
  #205 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Flying Binghi
Yep. The blast ‘shadows’ look to be telling a story. As to the ghosts in the dark areas they could well be from the helicopter water bombers or a fire fighting boat water gun washing the areas. Or there could be a shadow from the prime mover ?
If it is, then it is in the wrong spot, there is little doubt that the epicentre of the detonation was near the centre of the two piers before the "shadow", that is on the span section that collapsed by being pulled back off it's bearings, IMHO. Could be washing? maybe. Doubt that it would come off without a bit of elbow grease, and it hasn't anywhere else. The resolution of the images is pretty lousy, Pity the guys on the ground doing the inspection are as likely as not to be part of the event.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 04:33
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Originally Posted by fdr
If it is, then it is in the wrong spot, there is little doubt that the epicentre of the detonation was near the centre of the two piers before the "shadow", that is on the span section that collapsed by being pulled back off it's bearings, IMHO. Could be washing? maybe. Doubt that it would come off without a bit of elbow grease, and it hasn't anywhere else. The resolution of the images is pretty lousy, Pity the guys on the ground doing the inspection are as likely as not to be part of the event.
I could have termed it better. I don’t mean deliberate washing of a particular area. More of an effect of either a water gun or helicopter drop bucket not being on target and inadvertently ‘washing’ the blast area thus causing what could be seen as a ghosting effect in the blast blackened area.

Re the prime mover ghosting possibility. I’m thinking it would likely be ahead of the actual placement of the truck trailer combo. Entirely conjecture on my part though in keeping with the spirit of this thread..
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 06:15
  #207 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Flying Binghi
Re the prime mover ghosting possibility. I’m thinking it would likely be ahead of the actual placement of the truck trailer combo. Entirely conjecture on my part though in keeping with the spirit of this thread..
If they wanted facts, they wouldn't have called it a Rumour network!

Overall, this is an interesting situation, and all possibilities are on the table on all matters. This is a matter that affects our professional community, civil and military, and more importantly, it is our planet. Collectively we haven't been held to nuclear ransom for some time, it was unpleasant and expensive last time, apparently Vlad slept through the interesting bits, including how that ended up for his brand.

Anything that has a contact anywhere near Vlad I would have a natural skepticism in, their history is replete with misbehaving, and obfuscation. Any document that has Russian fingerprints on it is naturally suspect, including their word of honour which frequently has not survived the time it takes for the ink to dry on the paper.

In other news, Iran seems to be getting asked to assist Russia with missiles to attack civil population in Ukraine. That should be a high point in their global standing, the same day the UN spoke with as close to unanimity as it ever does on the matter. Iran's response will be interesting to see, they have no natural love for Putin. They may be wanting some of their money back for their tanks and planes supplied by Russia.

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Old 13th Oct 2022, 08:36
  #208 (permalink)  
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Angel

Saying changed trucks etc might well have simply been the dropped of trailer, picked up by another company as opposed to unloading / reloading. The trailer unit may have been registered to the fictitious company it was being delivered too. DHL have loads of none DHL marked tractor units from multiple countries picking up DHL marked trailers at EGNX.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 09:13
  #209 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Saying changed trucks etc might well have simply been the dropped of trailer, picked up by another company as opposed to unloading / reloading. The trailer unit may have been registered to the fictitious company it was being delivered too. DHL have loads of none DHL marked tractor units from multiple countries picking up DHL marked trailers at EGNX.
That would have supported a prepared device, however, the story as related by the authorities... FSB etc, is that the load was transferred at Armavir, from one trailer to another. At that point, which is the last major staging of the load, the load would need to be prepared as a device.
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Old 13th Oct 2022, 10:57
  #210 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
and the document number above the serial number: 19910824-00026 That has all the hallmarks of being a Russian version of the EU Emsho, and that is the date of birth, of the girl from Moscow....
and the same expiry date...
and the same signature...
If this came from Russia, then they really are taking the mickey out of Putin. I presume that it is so bad that it is a meme from someone running along the same line of the credibility and competency of the FSB.

Awwww. C'mon! the Russians know the name and address of the driver of the truck at least, that was given to the Russians at the security checkpoint when the Russians inspected the truck and found it suitable for task er, ooops, not holding excess Vodka/contraband etc. By water or by land, this attack involved Russians either independent or in concert with Ukrainians.

Of course, Russia hasn't made an objection as yet to someone destroying Ukrainian property whilst under the care of the bare bear. In fact, come to think of it, Ukraine should bill Russia for the damage done to the illegally erected structure built on Ukrainian land, and for the demolition of it without an approval to demolish or remove the illegally built structure. I known my council would be over us like a rash for doing what the Russians have done.



Not to mention that the font is different - very clear with the 6 and 9...
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 08:11
  #211 (permalink)  
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Film of the on going repairs, I wonder if they are digging up the road surface near the floating crane not for repairs but to reduce the weight for lifting it?

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Old 14th Oct 2022, 10:49
  #212 (permalink)  
 
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Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July. Their initial comment was that it would've been back in use the same day.

This'll add to the russian logistic nightmare very effectively as all the heavy stuff needs to be delivered by ferry.

Originally Posted by REUTERS
​​​MOSCOW, Oct 14 Crimea bridge repairs to be finished by July 2023 - Russian government document
Repairs to the bridge between the annexed Crimean peninsula and southern Russia, which was damaged in an explosion last Saturday, are to be finished by July 2023, a document published on the Russian government's website said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...nt-2022-10-14/
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 11:26
  #213 (permalink)  
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Damaged section of the rail bridge at 1:26 and it looks bad.

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Old 14th Oct 2022, 11:32
  #214 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by MFC_Fly
Not to mention that the font is different - very clear with the 6 and 9...
Look at his hair either side of his mouth, you can see her hair, the section of the womans hair that is level with the centre of her lips shows on the side of his head , neither of which correspond to his rough wavy haircut , so his picture has been superimposed over the top of hers and hence the stamp does not cover his face.






Last edited by NutLoose; 14th Oct 2022 at 11:43.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 12:01
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July.
Hopefully Ukraine will be in a position to drop it with conventional demolition charges by then.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 12:24
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Damaged section of the rail bridge at 1:26 and it looks bad.



https://twitter.com/MorCam_USA/statu...77465039540225
But not bad enough to stop a train of (likley empty) tanker cars to cross it.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 13:32
  #217 (permalink)  
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Think they are using the far track?
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 13:56
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
But not bad enough to stop a train of (likley empty) tanker cars to cross it.
"empty", as in the Russian pledges with treaties?

Curious as to the military benefit of empty tanker cars, would have thought Crimea and the Kherson Oblast would prefer full. Special Kherson cat may hold out for kibble and kitty litter.

Great BDA images,
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 14:54
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Curious as to the military benefit of empty tanker cars, would have thought Crimea and the Kherson Oblast would prefer full. Special Kherson cat may hold out for kibble and kitty litter.
My mistake, got the direction of travel mixed up.
Looks like the outside track is serviceable then. That's a real pity. Stopping that fuel supply would really make a difference.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 15:42
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Watching the video NutLoose posted raises a few questions.

Why did the truck bomb (if that's what it was) detonate where it did? A better spot would seem to be at the apex of the road at the steel arch structure. As well as taking out the road section there would be an additional damage to the supporting cables. Plus possible damage to the rail bridge girders.

Also why detonate in the outside lane? Far better to move over one lane, closer to the rail tracks. More chance of causing damage to the opposite carriageway across the barrier.
.
Alternatively, if it's a false flag attack then why detonate alongside a fuel train? Why take out an incline section if a flat roadway section might prove easier to repair
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