Originally Posted by
rattman
The Bellingcat link is interesting.
27/ On 7 October, Yusubov drove from Kanevskoy in the north of the region to Armavir, arriving at the warehouse at lunchtime. The cargo was loaded onto his truck, an International ProStar with 870,000 km on the clock, using the warehouse's mechanical loader.
"using the warehouse's mechanical loader".
So the load that is the apparent cause of the Kerch bridge issue was moved from one trailer, to another. 23 Tons, Good effort. The pallets in the photo are EU standard, so they would be picked up by forklifts... not all at once, so the pallet as explosives are separate, they are not all wired together according to the info provided. The whole load is supposed to be sympathetic detonations? All at once?
The schedule now suggests the timing of this was essentially arranged back in August when schemed up. It doesn't indicate means that the load was then interfered with in order to provide a triggering device, but 2 months later, it gets to blow up. Maybe.
This load was loaded, and unloaded multiple times, and the fact that it was nitrate rich, or that there were devices attached to (presumably) various parts was not noted? It was reloaded on the day before the blast, in the presence of the driver that didn't survive the blast, and he didn't note anything unusual?
This event as described arises from the required failure of multiple border crossing screenings, of multiple handling of individual charges without detection, and some means to then set it off down track at an unknown date/time. Maybe. The locals need to revisit their processes, as they don't work if this the means by which this happened.
Still impressed that the FSB got all of this info together in the period of time since discovery and exposé.
By this story, there are disconnects that occur at various locations, but the final one is... what was loaded onto the truck at the last location? An inventory would need to be taken and the documents traced through to source to confirm that the load was indeed related to what had transpired previously. Why would it be assumed that the FSB, who have a history of messing about in other peoples rice bowls, not have controlled this whole event? There is no part of this so far that could not be done by the FSB, and as indicated, the damage and the story doesn't sit easily together.
How many companies do the FSB have in the same countries?
What evidence is there that the same load actually was explosives from the start to the finish as described.
It is reasonable to assume that if this was a truck bomb, then the last truck in this story did pick up something and proceed to the bridge. That is, there is a likely train of events from Armavir to Kerch, yet even then there is a period where the vehicle was able to be accessed, although that is unlikely. There is a fair chance that the load from Armavir to Kerch was explosive. If the FSB was involved, and are doing the investigation, there is no confirmation that anything from Ukraine-Moldova-Bulgaria-Georgia-Armenia-Georgia-North Ossetia-Russia to Armavir is not of FSB obfuscation, involving props. What was picked up in Armavir, as far as evidence that excludes any involvement by FSB?
I'm conflicted on this, as I don't think that Ukraine would not have justification for any of this, however it is a misstep in part that is not characteristic of Ukraine to date, but which is the hallmark of Russia. Any explanation that occurs that involves Russian investigation is suspect, there has not been many occasions where Russia will act in a disruptive manner.
Recall back to why Russia went into Afghanistan. This whole event at the bridge is reminiscent of a re-run of the events immediately preceding the "help" from the USSR to Afghanistan, that started at the hands of Russian largesse.
About the only thing that is certain is that the bridge needs some maintenance work done.