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The Kerch Bridge Thread

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The Kerch Bridge Thread

Old 14th Oct 2022, 16:37
  #221 (permalink)  
 
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Some discussion on this earlier. Maybe both parties in this war would like to keep the sea lane open?
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 16:48
  #222 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kent Based
Also why detonate in the outside lane? Far better to move over one lane, closer to the rail tracks. More chance of causing damage to the opposite carriageway across the barrier.
It seems quite likely the driver didn't know he was about to meet his maker. The right-hand lane would be the normal one to be using anyway, but especially going up a hill.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 17:14
  #223 (permalink)  
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Or maybe they saw the train as a target of opportunity to seek maximum damage, so detonated there as opposed to the suggestion to do it later, also being a truck I would imagine it was in a crawler lane.
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 17:25
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Russia announces full repair of bridge by July 1 2023

According to Le Figaro

" La Russie a annoncé vendredi 14 octobre ordonner la réparation avant le 1er juillet 2023 du pont de Crimée, partiellement détruit lors d'une explosion samedi dernier que Moscou impute à Kiev.Le gouvernement «détermine la date limite pour la fin des contrats d'État pour l'exécution des travaux au 1er juillet 2023», peut-on lire dans un arrêté signé par le premier ministre russe, Mikhaïl Michoustine."

https://www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...-2023-20221014

EDIT: Apologies - didn't see Beamr's post 212
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Old 14th Oct 2022, 22:21
  #225 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Beamr
Apparently the damages are much more severe than what was initially stated by the russkies as they are anticipating to have it repaired by July. Their initial comment was that it would've been back in use the same day.

This'll add to the russian logistic nightmare very effectively as all the heavy stuff needs to be delivered by ferry.

They were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off the back of the truck, so it would have been back in use the same day, but as ever, it turned out to be an FSB clusterf**k


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Old 15th Oct 2022, 11:23
  #226 (permalink)  
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A little more information, and some further conflicting commentary that has arisen from the FSB. The website is an OSINT site...

https://www.molfar.global/en-blog/th...n=kerch_bridge

There is one point of interest in the frames grabbed from the video, there is a shape in the frame after the white flash of the detonation, that seems to show a square shape to the left of where the truck was 2 frames before... it is probably an artefact, but could be worth closer inspection. The text indicates commentary within Russia/FSB related to fertiliser, rather than what is described as photo film, which seems to come out of nowhere. The rolls were supposed to be ABS film in the first reports. The direction of the piece is towards a detonation on the water level, evidence seems unclear still either way. My own bias is a distrust of anything that involves Russian state security involvement.

Last edited by fdr; 15th Oct 2022 at 12:14.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 09:06
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Originally Posted by Geriaviator
Some discussion on this earlier. Maybe both parties in this war would like to keep the sea lane open?
Apologies if I missed that. Didn't see that on this thread. I am curious as to why Ukraine currently needs that sealane open as I wasn't aware that they were able to use it.

Sorry if my questions are an irritant. I've very much enjoyed following the quality information here. Thanks to those who were kind enough to answer my previous questions.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 09:32
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Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.

How many recall that old movie film was made of nitrocellulose compounded to make celluloid? It's possible someone figured out a way to convert or enhance the highly flammable film into an explosive.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 10:16
  #229 (permalink)  
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Dmitri said

Due to the peculiarities of its design made out of full-metal ballast troughs, the burning out of 450 tons of diesel fuel, followed by extinguishing with cold sea water, could seriously damage the integrity of the structure.
follow on replies

Good point about the overheated steel being dosed with cold water. It could easily lead to metallurgical changes in the structure, making it brittle and therefore subject to collapse under load without warning. The only mitigation will be replacement.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 17:08
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Originally Posted by Kent Based
Apologies if I missed that. Didn't see that on this thread. I am curious as to why Ukraine currently needs that sealane open as I wasn't aware that they were able to use it.
Technically, they don't. But, from what I've heard, Russian grain transports pass through that sea-lane, and if they blocked it Russia may have decided not to renew the grain deal for Odessa, in retaliation. But Russia is making noises about not renewing that deal anyway.

Originally Posted by MechEngr
Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.
My guess is that all the talk about movie film reels was just an error in translation or interpretation. The Russian sources used the word "пленка" (plenka) which according to the Microsoft Translator can mean foil, film, or sheeting. If I use the same automatic translator on the FSB report released last week, I get "construction polyethylene film". And the initial talk about fertilizer was based on "a source in law enforcement agencies", so not something official.
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Old 16th Oct 2022, 17:25
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Originally Posted by MechEngr
Perhaps - the truck bomb example from molfar said it would have to be non-hazardous and then repeats reports that it was film reels.

How many recall that old movie film was made of nitrocellulose compounded to make celluloid? It's possible someone figured out a way to convert or enhance the highly flammable film into an explosive.
I not only knew about old movie film being made out of celluloid but I also had a vague recollection of a connection to an explosive, this being the benefits of a miss spent youth! So at the risk of a visit from MI5, I did some research and the answer is....

Gun cotton

The power of guncotton made it suitable for blasting. As a projectile driver, it had around six times the gas generation of an equal volume of black powder and produced less smoke and less heating.
And gun cotton is one of the principle ingredients of Gelignite

It is all coming back to me

I have no idea how that could be related to the Kerch Bridge explosion, unless someone over there is lot better at chemistry than me

During my research I also came across this, something that I was also vaguely aware of....

Once Upon a Time, Exploding Billiard Balls Were An Everyday Thing

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart...ing-180962751/
So for those of you playing with your vintage balls, please do take care


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Old 18th Oct 2022, 21:34
  #232 (permalink)  
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Lightbulb Bleak future for Kerch

Todays revelation that there is an intent by Russia to destroy the dam on the Dneiper, upstream of Kherson, will make the Kerch Bridge, and the channel of the Sea of Azov under the centre span an inevitable total loss. That would be well within the Ukrainian capabilities to achieve, and makes Rostov irrelevant, as well as all the cities on the edge of Azov, like Berdiansk, Marioupol, etc. It also is an own goal to Crimea, losing the water supply to purportedly guarantee water to the same place seems to suggest that the emotional 5 Y/O is past his bed time and should stop making plans while in a huff.

Fill in the blanks for 5 points each:
  1. Russia blows the Karkhova dam, Ukraine [[b]fill in the blank] to [[b]fill in the blank]. This leaves [[b]fill in the blank] without [[b]fill in the blank] for the next [[b]fill in the blank].
  2. Russia blows the ZNPP, Ukraine [[b]fill in the blank] to [[b]fill in the blank]. This leaves [[b]fill in the blank] without [[b]fill in the blank] for the next [[b]fill in the blank].
(90 points just for spelling your name right)




And another thing:

Russia dropping the dam at Nova Karkhova, or dropping a nuke on Kherson is the epitome of a terrorist act, and has about a 90% chance of being viewed as such by 70% of the UN states, and a 70% chance of 90% of the UN states viewing that as a state sponsored terrorist action.

The action has reportedly been suggested by Russia's puppets, and Russia is the 7urd at the top of that pile of excrement.

So what happens when Russia gets finally, and well beyond due date, labelled as a terrorist state, and certainly a sponsor of terrorism? (remember Chechnya? 2014, Georgia? etc, they are a recidivist terrorist state, and they may be about to cross the rubicon of bad taste).
  1. Does the right of "innocent passage" relate to a terrorist organisation, actor or state? Ooops Vlad, enjoy your boating around St Pete, and exactly how will you be communicating with Kaliningrad? You effectively shut down Kaliningrad, about time too. How about the Black Sea fleet? where ya gonna run to sinner man? You won't get down to Turkey, and if you do, your fleet will be impounded on arrival in waters beyond Turkey, but even Turkey will not stand for Russia as a terrorist state using their waterway. Every Russian flagged ship, plane will be at risk of being impounded where they are, as they should be, where Russia is a terrorist state. That leaves Vlad with the Northern fleet to play with, and a constrained Pacific fleet. Nice job Vlad. Russian shipping, out of business, secondary sanctions guarantee that outcome.
  2. Trade with Russia such that it is would be curtained completely,
  3. Travel of any Russian passports would be a thing of memory,
  4. Mandatory seizure of all assets in foreign jurisdictions,
  5. [add as necessary... ]

I was wondering why the US has been so reticent to label Russia a terrorist state, and it is because it is catastrophic to Russia, as it should be. Russia gets to do Russian stuff in Russia for a fair old time, and doesn't get to do anything with the rest of the world

US State Dept naughty List:
  • Cuba January 12, 2021
  • Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) November 20, 2017
  • Iran January 19, 1984
  • Syria December 29, 1979
How many of these naughty list states ship, trade, interact with the country that designates them as terrorist states?




Chakhavadze, G., Sultana, M., Grasis, j., "[size=13px]The Concept of Maritime Terrorism Between Traditionalism and Expansionism: Re-thinking Maritime Terrorism as a Transnational Crime", [/size]Baltic Yearbook of International Law Online, 9 Sep 2021

Last edited by fdr; 18th Oct 2022 at 22:43. Reason: and another thing....
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Old 18th Oct 2022, 23:04
  #233 (permalink)  
 
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The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.
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Old 18th Oct 2022, 23:12
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Originally Posted by steamchicken
The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.
I believe he is suggesting that any restraint Ukraine had against dropping the Kerch bridge and blocking the sea-lanes going under it would be gone if Russia would flood Kherson city.
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Old 19th Oct 2022, 03:28
  #235 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by steamchicken
The Kerch bridge isn't over the Dnieper.
Originally Posted by MikeSnow
I believe he is suggesting that any restraint Ukraine had against dropping the Kerch bridge and blocking the sea-lanes going under it would be gone if Russia would flood Kherson city.
It's an absolute certainty that the Kerch bridge gets dropped if the dam at Nova Karkhova gets destroyed by Russia.
Why? The wanton destruction of the dam to harm Ukraines citizens, destroys the water storage for Crimea. It also will destroy the land routes for Russia to access Crimea, which approach the Kherson area, and will be shredded by a major inundation. That leaves the Kerch Bridge as the sole access other than ship and aircraft. Russia doesn't have the capacity to continue a Berlin Airlift, and their boats seem to have interests in conversion to submarines. If the war gets "nasty" then the restraint by Ukraine to cause disruption of military supply routes while not affecting economic and civil trade would not be rational, so the dropping of the centre spans into the channel would be a fair option. That would cease all transitions in/out of the Sea of Azov to the Black Sea, and bottle up Rostov, then the former port... as well as all other ports surrounding the sea. The Ukrainians don't need to hit further around the coast of the Black Sea, it is going to be untenable to sit back and not label Russia as a terrorist state, and that will stop all Russian shipping internationally. They will barely have a means to transit between Vladivostok and Murmansk....
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Old 19th Oct 2022, 04:05
  #236 (permalink)  
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It would also scupper the forced “evacuation” of Kherson. I believe they didn’t want to knock both spans down until the last moment to allow Russians to flee Crimea rather than have to deal with those that remain..
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Old 20th Oct 2022, 00:40
  #237 (permalink)  
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Exclamation

Originally Posted by NutLoose
It would also scupper the forced “evacuation” of Kherson. I believe they didn’t want to knock both spans down until the last moment to allow Russians to flee Crimea rather than have to deal with those that remain..
Personally, I would like to see the Russians happily playing in their own kitty litter. To date, Vlad's personal wealth is almost enough to make up for the naughty things he has done, other than the dead civilians and Special Military War fighters of Ukraine. However he packages his doo-doo to the Russians, he will be remembered for what is the "Russian criminal attack against another Sovereign Neighbour", [I think calling this the "War in Ukraine" or "Ukraine War" is offensive to Ukrainians, they didn't start it, they didn't invade another country, Vlad did that... rant concluded]

Divesting himself of his earnings, to pay reparations for his breakages would be a good start. Whether he keeps his head on his shoulders or his face off the pavement is between him, gravity and the minions that dote on his every word. For now, he has more or less done a favour to the rest of the world by dismantling the Russian Airforce, Navy and Army, that should be good for at least a generation. I would hope that the people that signed the Budapest Memorandum would honour their word, as that would have stopped this untidiness in it's tracks, yet, here we are. To my elected representatives, no xmas cards for your shabby conduct and failure to honour your word. The belated support born of being shamed by the dignity and honour of Ukraine in upholding the very tenets of decency that our reps found means to avoid, year, no pudding for you guys/girls. It takes the women leaders of the Baltics and Finland to show any real backbone, you girls are the nearest thing to a bright light in this whole sordid take of human discharge, avarice and hubris. "Apart from that, Mrs Lincoln, how was the show?"

Russia can do the maths, and Vlad can actually turn the Titanic around now, and save his neck, well maybe on the latter, depends on how good a story he spins and how many Lada's he can give away in the great Russian car giveaway.

Flooding Kherson is pretty stupid, but so was the start of this war. Pouring in more candidates with the callsign "dead meat" seems to be adverse to Vlad's health and retirement prospects. If the rest of the world has the intestinal fortitude that the girls of Scandinavian/Baltic Governments have, then calling Russia out as a terrorist state and imposing the full force of such sanctions is the fastest way to get him to start playing with his abacus. Preferably before he causes a meltdown of the ZNPP, at which point, China, along with every other southern 'Stan, may just have a bit of an issue with Vlad.

Vlad will do what he will do, but the options are not that numerous only the time, bodycount and details of the damage change.

If he floods East Kherson Oblast, and melts ZNPP, I would think that the Kerch bridge centre span needs to become a hazard to navigation.

IMHO....


P.S.: There is a case to be made that dropping the Kerch bridge now may stop the deliberate flooding of the Eastern Kherson Oblast, even Vlad is going to take care about drowning his own troops, at least at headline levels of losses.

Last edited by fdr; 20th Oct 2022 at 00:46. Reason: P.S.:
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Old 20th Oct 2022, 03:31
  #238 (permalink)  
 
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Yeah but, fdr, I really don't think Vlad is motivated by wealth as a final goal. I suspect the manipulation of power is really his thing and the resistance of the Ukrainians is a craw in his throat. I think we are beyond rational now, it's become personal.
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Old 20th Oct 2022, 07:47
  #239 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
Yeah but, fdr, I really don't think Vlad is motivated by wealth as a final goal. I suspect the manipulation of power is really his thing and the resistance of the Ukrainians is a craw in his throat. I think we are beyond rational now, it's become personal.
Power is lord Lucas' gig, the cash gets that happening. Take away the cash, and he has some more issues, more importantly, take away the cash of the people that like the strong leader, and there is room for a bathroom accident or two.
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Old 20th Oct 2022, 22:37
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After removing the road surface of the damaged span, they are now cutting the remaining metal structure into small pieces, which are then loaded on a barge:


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