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The Kerch Bridge Thread

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The Kerch Bridge Thread

Old 10th Oct 2022, 19:36
  #121 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
KERCH BRIDGE STRIKE: New overhead imagery reveals additional failures to bridge sections adjoining the blast site.
Does the person who posted that picture have clear confirmation about "precision strike munition" or are they guessing about that?
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 19:37
  #122 (permalink)  
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MELTED TRACK: MAKS 22 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA has posted this video of damage to the rail bed, tracks and underlayment of the railway of the Kerch Straits bridge. The heat of burning tank cars has, in places, malformed the track; it's also likely to have weakened the bridge itself...
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:05
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It seems to me that one of the difficulties we have built into our high precision weapons mentality is losing the notion that although a surgical strike with a mere 300Kg charge will take out a nasty Ayatollah and his house it simply can't deal wth a bloody great bridge - to the extent that we've lost the ability to take out bloody great bridges at all.
We've seen that multiple strikes from tube artillery all making one meter holes at one end of a bridge merely leaves the bridge standing, damaged sure but probably still useable.

Busting bridges requires dropping entire spans, not making 1m holes in the road deck.

The first try on the Kerch bridge did just that. And having seen the extraordinary structure of the bridge no wonder a boat bomb took it out, for that is surely what was did the job.

Next trick; to get another similar charge under the other span. And then to see that the next flammable train burns properly and melts the railway too...

Vlad - Happy Birthday mate....

G0 Ukraine!
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:11
  #124 (permalink)  
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Whodunnit?

Can rule out this event being caused by a missile, evidence so far points towards non military grade explosives with additives for enhanced thermal effects.
Delivery is either by boat or truck, with the truck being most obvious means, however the explosion epicenter seems to actually be behind the trucks location... which is curious.
In all cases, the device came from Russian controlled territory, and yet it is contended that the Ukrainians did this. We are to assume that Ukraine would not expect putin to go into a "rage" and attack what? the only thing that exists that Russia can hit, which is civilian targets, as they are soft and concentrated, Russia's preferred method of conducting genocide.

Ukraine has been rational to date, and a strike on the bridge without also hitting the land MSR routes misses the mark on rational strategy.Ukraine can range the A-14 along much of it;s length already, yet didn't make a fashion statement. Nor did they strike the rail line infrastructure at the same time. This doesn't appear to be up to the standard of Ukraine's planning, it has all the hallmarks of a botched FSB effort, the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

Reportedly Shoigu has resigned and is taking up decorating his daughters 14M USD dacha, not bad for an unemployed 18 Y/O. Who says crime doesn't pay? Certainly not Putin.

I'm leaning heavily to this being an internecine tiff for control of the Titanic's wheelhouse, with or without Putin being fully informed.

Suspect someone in the FSB is wearing a cone of shame for the overly exuberant display and the whoopsie that the train happened to be there to add to the show. How did Ukraine otherwise get a bomb past the worlds greatest border guards? straight through security... nice pictures... from inside Russia? during hostilities? Is Russian internal security that shambolic?

Stinks of maskirovska, and that suggests more to come.
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:16
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Originally Posted by ORAC
MELTED TRACK: MAKS 22 @Maks_NAFO_FELLA has posted this video of damage to the rail bed, tracks and underlayment of the railway of the Kerch Straits bridge. The heat of burning tank cars has, in places, malformed the track; it's also likely to have weakened the bridge itself...
That's like showing burned carpet in a house fire.
Tracks gone, so what? They're repairable in a couple of days. There's no evidence of serious damage (I didn't say no damage) to the underlying structure but even if there was does anyone really suppose the sickeningly wimpish Western H & S rules for running trains across it would apply in Russia even it was remotely possible; as if crews would have a choice when assigned to that duty and find out the hard way if the bridge could take it?

We still haven't got the message yet, have we?

The message of how Russia wages war?

I suspect we're about to find out.

Nuc?

Nah.

Gas.
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:18
  #126 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
It seems to me that one of the difficulties we have built into our high precision weapons mentality is losing the notion that although a surgical strike with a mere 300Kg charge will take out a nasty Ayatollah and his house it simply can't deal wth a bloody great bridge - to the extent that we've lost the ability to take out bloody great bridges at all.
We've seen that multiple strikes from tube artillery all making one meter holes at one end of a bridge merely leaves the bridge standing, damaged sure but probably still useable.

Busting bridges requires dropping entire spans, not making 1m holes in the road deck.

The first try on the Kerch bridge did just that. And having seen the extraordinary structure of the bridge no wonder a boat bomb took it out, for that is surely what was did the job.

Next trick; to get another similar charge under the other span. And then to see that the next flammable train burns properly and melts the railway too...

Vlad - Happy Birthday mate....

G0 Ukraine!
may well have been a boat bomb, but I contend the gratefully received photos of the structure indicate this bridge was designed to be dropped readily. The exact targeting for small charges is now public domain, many thanks Russia. They are able to be transposed onto the main structure and good coordinates for striking with much smaller warheads. This isn't Paul Doumer, this is a relatively weak structure with critical load points asking for a TB2 strike or 2.

If it was my football, I'd be packing up and going home, this bridge isn't going to guarantee supply to Crimea.
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 21:48
  #127 (permalink)  
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Follow up:

Why would the strike package against the civilian targets in Ukraine have been [reportedly, unconfirmed] issued on 2nd and 3rd October?
Someone knows who did the bridge, and I would lay odds that it isn't Ukraine. As yet, Ukraine has not stated they did this. If they didn't, which is my suspicion, then they gain considerably by stating that now. How so? as it will filter back into Russia that an attack (once again, like the 5 in 1999) was done by their own government to gain popular public support for more Russians to go and get dead in Ukraine to benefit Putin and his various offshore bank accounts, and his rapidly diminishing master clique currently suffering a bout of bad luck and attendant attrition.

Now, sayiing you didn't do it, but Russia did, and they didn't do it very well, doesn't preclude the Ukrainians now showing how to do it properly, as in with coordination, against the bridge, and coast roads and rail that are occupied by the Russians on Ukrainian sovereign soil.

Nothing is better than exposing that the government did it to their own people so they can kill more of their own people for the benefit of a corrupt few.
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Old 10th Oct 2022, 23:54
  #128 (permalink)  
 
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This isn't Paul Doumer, this is a relatively weak structure with critical load points asking for a TB2 strike or 2.
It is a weak structure as the bridge deck spans are retained by gravity, not hard structure. The steel bridge spans must have a mounting system to allow for thermal expansion and contraction which, with the hot summers and cold winters of the area, is substantial. For example, a 200 foot steel beam will expand about 2 inches with a temperature delta of 120° F (sorry about the imperial units). There are multiple bridge support systems to accomplish this, though from the photos I suspect the rocker and pin bearing system is used; as one can see, the span is held in place only by its own weight.


This seems susceptible to earthquake or explosive damage; it's not surprising the spans fell. Joints would seem a good target for rocket attack.....

Edited for gramma.

Last edited by Winemaker; 11th Oct 2022 at 01:03.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 00:35
  #129 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Winemaker
It is a weak structure as the bridge deck spans are retained by gravity, not hard structure. The steel the bridge spans must have a mounting system to allow for thermal expansion and contraction which, with the hot summers and cold winters of the area, is substantial. For example, a 200 foot steel beam will expand about 2 inches with a temperature delta of 120° F (sorry about the imperial units). There are multiple bridge support systems to accomplish this, though from the photos I suspect the rocker and pin bearing system is used; as one can see, the span is held in place only by its own weight.


This seems susceptible to earthquake or explosive damage; its not surprising the spans fell. Joints would seem a good target for rocket attack.....
Yup, and they are apparent even on google earth.

Time for the bridge to end, along with the A-14, and the rail links. at the same time, by Ukraine this time, they have already been the victim of the terrorist in the Kremlin, and the bridge and road & rail infrastructure in Ukraine is Ukraines to deny from the terrorist organisation that the Kremlin is.

On related matters, I have been getting responses now from my email complaints to various Ministry of Foreign Affairs in relation to the application of the UN Charter, purported "Veto". The Charter is the controlling document, and the term "Veto" does not arise in the Charter. Try a word search of the Charter for the term "VETO"; It doesn't exist. Refer below, LH side...
Spoiler
 

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Old 11th Oct 2022, 00:57
  #130 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
More on the melted tracks. If the bogies have melted like that and the fire was whipping underneath the bridge I would think that structure is dubious at the least. From about 27 secs you can see distortion on the bridge steels between both tracks.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...DUsYvv1esrAAAA
Watching the videos I wondered why the burn lasted so long. Now looking at the gravel under the rail line I guess it could explain the long burn time.

It looks like the gravel is ‘contained’ under the track via low walls either side of the track.

From living beside a rail line for a time I know that there is a constant need to refresh gravel under the rails. Part of the reason is over time the gravel gets ground down to dust via regular ‘working’ of the gravel from heavy train usage.

When the fuel tanks initially burst a lot of the fuel would not burn but flow to the gravel below. If there is a course gravel layer that contains various layers diminishing sized grains through to dust than I guess that would be a good reservoir for a long lasting burn.

What I don’t know is would the gravel to dust layer, whilst feeding the fire above, also act as an insulator to the concrete below ?
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 02:26
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Originally Posted by fdr
Can rule out this event being caused by a missile, evidence so far points towards non military grade explosives with additives for enhanced thermal effects.
Delivery is either by boat or truck, with the truck being most obvious means, however the explosion epicenter seems to actually be behind the trucks location... which is curious.
In all cases, the device came from Russian controlled territory, and yet it is contended that the Ukrainians did this. We are to assume that Ukraine would not expect putin to go into a "rage" and attack what? the only thing that exists that Russia can hit, which is civilian targets, as they are soft and concentrated, Russia's preferred method of conducting genocide
Perhaps those intrepid Ukrainian farmers from inside russian controlled territory with a fertiliser bomb (anfo) on a tinny?

Would have been an blast and a half if instead of fuel tank railcars beside the explosion site, there had been railway boxcars loaded with ammunition, perhaps those boxcars at the rear of the train on the bridge? Bye bye Kerch railway bridge

Dot
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 02:31
  #132 (permalink)  
 
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Typically fuel soaked items don't burn - the heat released from the vapor flame above simply causes the liquid to vaporize, absorbing the heat and limiting the temperature to the boiling point of the liquid. See candle wicks and kerosene lamp wicks for examples. While those do get consumed it's the part of the wick that cannot maintain a flow of fluid that gets burned.

The tracks themselves aren't protected by being soaked in fuel and they would have heated to the flame temperature, both expanding and buckling lengthwise from the heat, but also lowering their strength where the weight of the tankers caused them to buckle.

I'd guess that the underlying structure is fine and that they may have to replace the sleepers (ties) along with the rails, as the concrete ties would not have been effective at storing fuel and gotten over-baked. Gravel and dust aren't great insulators, but the energy required to change the phase of liquid to gas is considerable and puts a limit on how hot the liquid can be.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 04:38
  #133 (permalink)  
 
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This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.


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Old 11th Oct 2022, 05:11
  #134 (permalink)  
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Pali: This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.
Hopefully so, but the damage that counts is below the sleepers and has no6t been clearly shown yet. The beams did a get a bit of blow torching, and hopefully, the droids will dutifully comply with the supreme commanders face saving orders and drive ever heavier loads along the track until the damage becomes apparent.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 06:53
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Originally Posted by Pali
This is really bad news for Russia. The fire was so hot that steel structures are visibly deformed. If they don't replace segments we may see the same fate like Remagen bridge.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/...44919794159618
That casts more than a little a bit of doubt about the video the Russians posted yesterday of a train supposedly crossing (or having crossed) the bridge.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 07:06
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Clearly nothing could have run on the track with the fuel tank cars on it. But the parallel track might be relatively unscathed. I don’t see any obvious damage in the video.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 07:11
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
That casts more than a little a bit of doubt about the video the Russians posted yesterday of a train supposedly crossing (or having crossed) the bridge.
There are two sets of tracks on the top of the rail bridge. The adjacent set appears to have little or no damage and is what they must have used to run their test train over with. The flim-flam steelwork of the safety railings and so on is obviously going to need replacing at some point, but no huge rush. Another day or so and they will have replaced the fire-damaged rails and any necessary sleepers. I think the fuel fire drained down between the track ballast and straight into overboard drains, i.e. it did not significantly puddle underneath primary structure. There s not good photo evidence to be sure of this, but that is what the limited evidence suggests.

WARNING : Aviation content : It would be nice for Ukraine if something with significant range and the ability to get through the SAM defences were available for them to attack the rail bridge.
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 10:32
  #138 (permalink)  
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Useful thread with a further link to the original bridge plans. (In Russian) by a contributor towards the end.

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Old 11th Oct 2022, 10:58
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Useful thread with a further link to the original bridge plans. (In Russian) by a contributor towards the end.
Interesting. Looking at the bridge underside photo he posted it would appear the rail bridge is steel support as well.

I can not see the link to the build plans ?
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Old 11th Oct 2022, 11:25
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Originally Posted by Flying Binghi
Interesting. Looking at the bridge underside photo he posted it would appear the rail bridge is steel support as well.
Yes, they are.
They were fabricated as 65m long (max) sections on Tuzla Island, and then slide into place using incremental launching, at about 45mm per minute.

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