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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Is Ukraine about to have a war?

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Old 7th Apr 2023, 15:29
  #16161 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
The tide sure is turning.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 15:59
  #16162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Girkens quote of the day:

"Artillery, in addition to the actual shell hunger, is experiencing the same large-scale hunger of “fresh” barrels - the guns are already worn out, the rifling is “licked off” by a large shot." and "the artillery is gone".. and "exp artillery crews are being used as assault infantry".. and this is coming from the Russian side...

https://t.co/yrCM9RjfnH
This post went without any significant notice but deep in the linked site there is one of the best Girkin's articles I've ever read.

https://kcpn.info/articles/действите...#1090;и/

I haven't seen translation anywhere but it would be worth to try at least google translate.
In a dark mood he explains why we may expect tough defeat for Russian army. He says that ZSU apparently learned mobile arms operations on brigade (or even larger) level and static tactics of Russian units without working comms, depleted ranks, with shell hunger will not be able to withstand upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Old school generals are not able to change anything and it is not the question of western kit bit rather western tactics which will be lethal. Girkin expects even worse defeat than Charkiv or Kherson in autumn and it is worth to read his lengthy analysis.

Good thing is that he will rather fall out of the window than be listened to. And if Russian armed forces would stop the huge problem with corruption and start reform immediately it is unlikely that it would bring much effect sooner than in a decade or so.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 16:04
  #16163 (permalink)  
 
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Nukem dukem is back on Russian TV spouting his sh*t.

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Old 7th Apr 2023, 16:07
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Impressive.

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Old 7th Apr 2023, 16:32
  #16165 (permalink)  
 
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The government of Poland warns of Russias intentions to expand the hostilities to West. Worth to notice that this publication is in the official Polish Government web pages.

The publication is worth a read, although I'll extract the main point here for ease of read.

https://www.gov.pl/web/special-servi...stroy-ukraine2

In August 2022, during a briefing at the Center for Military and Political Studies at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, its director Alexey Podberyozkin argued that the only scenario favorable for Russia was a further escalation of the situation and an expansion of aggressive actions against the West.

After a few months of Russia's war against Ukraine, an analyst with influence on Russian strategy argued for the need for further escalation, pointing out that only such escalation could ensure Russia's defense of its allegedly threatened interests. According to the Russian, choosing a different strategy will sooner or later end with the collapse of Russia and the disintegration of the state. Podbieriozkin's lecture shows that not only Russian political elites, but also military analysts are convinced of the need to escalate the war, as well as to expand the spectrum of hostile actions against the West.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 16:36
  #16166 (permalink)  
 
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It’s looking like the Russians sabotaged the Slovak Mig 29 that were to go to Ukraine.

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Old 7th Apr 2023, 16:45
  #16167 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pali
This post went without any significant notice but deep in the linked site there is one of the best Girkin's articles I've ever read.

https://kcpn.info/articles/действите...#1090;и/

I haven't seen translation anywhere but it would be worth to try at least google translate.
In a dark mood he explains why we may expect tough defeat for Russian army. He says that ZSU apparently learned mobile arms operations on brigade (or even larger) level and static tactics of Russian units without working comms, depleted ranks, with shell hunger will not be able to withstand upcoming Ukrainian offensive. Old school generals are not able to change anything and it is not the question of western kit bit rather western tactics which will be lethal. Girkin expects even worse defeat than Charkiv or Kherson in autumn and it is worth to read his lengthy analysis.

Good thing is that he will rather fall out of the window than be listened to. And if Russian armed forces would stop the huge problem with corruption and start reform immediately it is unlikely that it would bring much effect sooner than in a decade or so.
Scroll up to the top on the site and there's a complete English translation.

Last edited by Winemaker; 7th Apr 2023 at 17:23.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 17:13
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One thing is certain. Any expansion further west by Russia will be the catalyst to a full nuclear conflict. There will be no winners, least of all them!
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 17:24
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Originally Posted by Pali
This post went without any significant notice but deep in the linked site there is one of the best Girkin's articles I've ever read.
You must have missed ORAC's #16142!

And for those using Google translate who are confused by the appearance of "dill" in the text - it's a literal translation of the Russian slang term for Ukrainians.

IM
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 17:26
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You have to wonder if the real message from the Chinese to the Russians is - don't even think about the nuclear option, China and the West can survive quite happily without Russia as they are their biggest customers for everything, pressing the nuclear button would invite response from both East and West.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 18:28
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Voronezh aircraft plant in Russia is on fire.
Claim is it was used as an anti aircraft weapon against Ukrainian missiles.

No idea what they have been doing lately but apparently it was a part of Sukhoi Superjet production.


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Old 7th Apr 2023, 19:20
  #16172 (permalink)  
 
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Q

The Russian currency is now tanking



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Last edited by NutLoose; 7th Apr 2023 at 19:30.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 20:53
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Originally Posted by ORAC
British company supplied Russia with banned electronics worth almost $1 billion

Mykines Corporation, registered in London, has shipped about $1.2 billion worth of electronics to Russia following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops and the imposition of sanctions.

According to The Financial Times, citing customs documents, the company sent semiconductors, servers, laptops, computer components, telecommunications network equipment and consumer electronics to Russia. The declarations include such brands as Huawei, Intel, AMD, Apple and Samsung.

Of the total shipments, goods worth at least $982 million were listed as prohibited for export to Russia. Selling these goods to customers in #Russia without permission from the #UK authorities is a violation of sanctions.…
Looking at Companies House, this company is owned by two others in the British Virgin Islands. A quick trace of the sub companies takes you back to the start.
Not only are they breaking sanctions, this is where the tax money disappears to.
These tax havens are an affront to civilised democratic societies. Our services are cut, because companies and directors are squirrelling the funds away and little to no tax is being paid.
The Directors and Shareholders need to be investigated and jailed for very lengthy periods along with the accountants and banks that facilitate this sculduggery.
​​​​​​​Special action from 007 types to send out special messages also wouldn't go amiss.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 21:10
  #16174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Spunky Monkey
Looking at Companies House, this company is owned by two others in the British Virgin Islands. A quick trace of the sub companies takes you back to the start.
Not only are they breaking sanctions, this is where the tax money disappears to.
These tax havens are an affront to civilised democratic societies. Our services are cut, because companies and directors are squirrelling the funds away and little to no tax is being paid.
The Directors and Shareholders need to be investigated and jailed for very lengthy periods along with the accountants and banks that facilitate this sculduggery.
Special action from 007 types to send out special messages also wouldn't go amiss.
Thanks for the pointer, which as far as I can see confirms that the entity is not a company but a Limited Liability Partnership with two BVI companies as the members. Good luck getting any accounts or other information out of any of them! And the sole person named as having significant control ... Ukrainian, believe it or not. I don't.

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Old 7th Apr 2023, 21:44
  #16175 (permalink)  
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Note worthy from current leaks - Russia has 527 (97%) of its 544 battalions commited to Ukraine. With 474 (90%) of those inside Ukraine.

The Russian army outside of Ukraine area, including in all other possible flash areas such as Georgia, is effectively non existent.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 22:55
  #16176 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by IlyaMuromets
Thanks for the pointer, which as far as I can see confirms that the entity is not a company but a Limited Liability Partnership with two BVI companies as the members. Good luck getting any accounts or other information out of any of them! And the sole person named as having significant control ... Ukrainian, believe it or not. I don't.

IM
Then time to secondary sanction the BVI.
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Old 7th Apr 2023, 23:39
  #16177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by fdr
Then time to secondary sanction the BVI.
Sanction - no. Prosecute and put out of business with a billion dollar fine - YES!
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Old 8th Apr 2023, 03:38
  #16178 (permalink)  
 
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Spring is here. And there.


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Old 8th Apr 2023, 11:09
  #16179 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Note worthy from current leaks - Russia has 527 (97%) of its 544 battalions commited to Ukraine. With 474 (90%) of those inside Ukraine.

The Russian army outside of Ukraine area, including in all other possible flash areas such as Georgia, is effectively non existent.
Opportunity for mayhem
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Old 8th Apr 2023, 11:59
  #16180 (permalink)  

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Originally Posted by fdr
Opportunity for mayhem Outer Manchuria!
Fixed it for ya!
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