Iran

[ORAC]

Reference ceasefire "negotiations". Reportedly the US passed a list of 15 posts/demands to Pakistan to pass on to Tehran. In return the Iranians have stated their demands.

Talking past, not too, each other.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Iran has set the toughest possible conditions for a ceasefire. Main Iranian demands:

Complete closure of all U.S. military bases in the Persian Gulf.
Payment of reparations for all strikes on Iranian territory.
New rules for the Strait of Hormuz — Iran gains the right to collect transit fees from passing ships (like Egypt in the Suez Canal).
Guarantees that the war will never resume.
Immediate cessation of all Zionist strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Full lifting of all U.S. sanctions.
Preservation of Iran’s missile program without any restrictions and without negotiations.

Trump’s 15-point plan, as per Israel’s Channel12 report, calls for the end of any uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and the handing over of enriched material, which Israel and the United States say could be developed into a nuclear bomb.

Additionally, Iran’s Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities must be dismantled. The United Nation’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), must also be granted full access to Iran.

The 15-point plan submitted by Trump also calls on Iran to dismantle its “proxy paradigm”. The proposal states that Tehran must cease funding, direction and arming of its regional proxies.

The 15-point plan by Trump also states that Tehran would allow for uninterrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, the vital water route through which one-fifth of the world’s oil flows.

There are also indications that the US may be seeking some form of acknowledgment of Israel’s right to exist....

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by NumptyAussie

Suez, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq etc etc have all exposed issues with "genuine elite all-arms forces"

Yes but is Iran capable of a set-piece battle to defend a vital asset? Is its military training and organisation such that its dispersed and mosaic nature can prevail against a surprise schwerpunkt operation using all the modern disinformation , cyberwarfare and shock and awe that the US forces have in their doctrine?.

Perhaps we shall see but I hope both sides can see that the current trajectory does neither side any favours.

[NutLoose]

Originally Posted by arf23

lets face it, if Iran grabs just one American serviceman and parades them on TV then the US Military is tied up in knots, possibly for decades

I hope they have their tailors on standby to manufacture lots of ill fitting suits.

Isn't it Ironic that you tend to believe the information that is coming out of Iran re the talks, more than the information the American side is putting out.

Yes but is Iran capable of a set-piece battle to defend a vital asset? Is its military training and organisation such that its dispersed and mosaic nature can prevail against a surprise schwerpunkt operation using all the modern disinformation , cyberwarfare and shock and awe that the US forces have in their doctrine?.

And how did that pan out for the US in Afghanistan.... Ohh, wait it didn't, it dragged on for years with the US making a scrappy withdrawal that made the fall of Saigon look positively well executed. When you are fighting a war on someone else's patch of land, they naturally have the upper hand.

And even if they do succeed in taking the Islands, then what, you are going to have to maintain a credible force on those islands to hold and defend them for the next several decades to ensure the route stays open, and as sure as the US hasn't got a plan for this, Iran will simply move back in when that force becomes unsustainable.

.

[judyjudy]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Talking past, not too, each other.

Seems like there are three levels, of which they are only at the first…

Talking past each other

Talking to each other

Talking with each other

[EDLB]

"Yes but is Iran capable of a set-piece battle to defend a vital asset?"
Wrong question. Is is the other way around. Can the USA guarantee, that Iran can not successfully attack a single tanker along their 1350nm long shoreline with the SoH and Gulf of Oman?

[larssnowpharter]

The USA is moving a huge amount of hardware into theatre at the moment. This will be to pressure Iran into an agreement or to put the proverbial boots on the ground. A couple of weeks ago when the MEU was first reported as heading that way, the conversation was about Kharg Island. Then I dismissed that and suggested the islands in the SoH as being a more likely threat.

However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.

Option 1 seems unlikely and the mood music is depressing. Trump needs something that demonstrate that he is a winner.

Option 2 is being studied by the best brains at CENTCOM and elsewhere and various options will be being presented up the chain. The final call being made by the CinC. The lure of taking over the Straight will be strong and one that KSA seems to favour and may find truck with other nations.

But how? I will rule out the attack on the various islands except as a prelude. The islands also sit within artillery range of the mainland. Putting troops on them just makes them targets. The County of Bander Abbas would make sense. It's coastline is where most of the anti shipping missiles are housed and the port would be a prize. Plenty of flatish farmland to the East. Limited road access along the coast or through mountain valleys to the North. Definitely a tough ask but

I pray that Option 1 comes good.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by larssnowpharter

...
However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.
...

3. Acknowledgement of the strategic realities of geography, and joining Iran in shutting down all maritime trade through the Straits of Hormuz (the crazy uncle scenario)
4. To continue the day to day chaos that seems to be stuck to the shoe of this incumbent.

Iran may be able to be beaten up by air power, but that does not necessarily achieve any strategic aim, even if they were enumerated in a cogent manner by any adult in the US or Israel, being the teams that sent out this parties RSVP's. Without definition, it seems kind to draw parallels with Vietnam, at least in '64 there was some rationale for the mess, however ill conceived that was by Lansdale and Dooley. Right now the justification has more in common with Westmoreland and the verb added to the English language by his strategy, "attrite".

The 5th option is anything that Iran may elect to do, as far as the Straits of Hormuz is concerned, drones alter the dynamics far away from what we have used in the past, and there is little evidence that Israel or the USA have an effective strategy to deal with the potential to have tens of thousands of independent drone operations plinking any and all ships passing the chokepoint.

Bombing the stuffing out of people to make them like you is not an efficient way of doing business, whether it is entertaining or not.

So much winning, we do indeed get tired of it.

[Ninthace]

Originally Posted by larssnowpharter

The USA is moving a huge amount of hardware into theatre at the moment. This will be to pressure Iran into an agreement or to put the proverbial boots on the ground. A couple of weeks ago when the MEU was first reported as heading that way, the conversation was about Kharg Island. Then I dismissed that and suggested the islands in the SoH as being a more likely threat.

However, I think I may be wrong. There are only two ways out of this:
1. A negotiated deal that provides guarantees that the SoH stays open.
2. Securing the SoH by military force.

Option 1 seems unlikely and the mood music is depressing. Trump needs something that demonstrate that he is a winner.

Option 2 is being studied by the best brains at CENTCOM and elsewhere and various options will be being presented up the chain. The final call being made by the CinC. The lure of taking over the Straight will be strong and one that KSA seems to favour and may find truck with other nations.

But how? I will rule out the attack on the various islands except as a prelude. The islands also sit within artillery range of the mainland. Putting troops on them just makes them targets. The County of Bander Abbas would make sense. It's coastline is where most of the anti shipping missiles are housed and the port would be a prize. Plenty of flatish farmland to the East. Limited road access along the coast or through mountain valleys to the North. Definitely a tough ask but

I pray that Option 1 comes good.

I hope evaluation of Option 2 includes Iran's penchant for asymmetric warfare. While they may not be able to repel an assault on Bander Abbas, they are likely to increase attacks on the infrastructure of the Gulf States. No point in opening the SOH, if there is no trade left to pass through.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by judyjudy

Seems like there are three levels, of which they are only at the first…
Talking past each other
Talking to each other
Talking with each other

PM of Pakistan is trying to help get them to step 2.

Originally Posted by FP

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif offered on Tuesday to host peace talks to end the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran.“Subject to concurrence by the US and Iran, Pakistan stands ready and honoured to be the host to facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks for a comprehensive settlement of the ongoing conflict,” Sharif posted on X. The proposal comes one day after Trump said that U.S. negotiators were engaged in “very, very strong talks” with Iran—a claim that Tehran quickly denied.

From the same article, "and now for the bad news" in terms of this conflict extending in time.
2.

Originally Posted by FP

However, not everyone in the region appears to want the war to end. U.S. officials told the New York Times on Tuesday that Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has been pushing Washington to continue fighting Tehran, calling it a “historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East. This rhetoric mirrors some of Trump’s own regime-change ambitions for Tehran. Riyadh has rejected Tuesday’s report, stressing that “the kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always supported a peaceful resolution to this conflict, even before it began.”

And the Israelis look to be escalating in Lebanon versus Hezbollah, Iran's ally/proxy.

My takeaway from the above? It's not stopping any time soon. (Sincerely hope to be wrong about that).

It appears that SEC DEF's early comment to the media (four to five weeks operation) was overly optimistic.

Originally Posted by larssnowpharter

The USA is moving a huge amount of hardware into theatre at the moment.

Yes. A USNI podcast with a former CENTCOM commander.

https://youtu.be/2uKDSi9r5bE

(Start at about 1:17 minutes in to avoid ads). He makes five points that I'd like to pull out of the extended discussion. He is using a style of MilSpeak that sometimes takes a bit of decoding.

1. This Op Plan goes back a few Presidents (I'll suggest back to GW Bush when Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran, but he didn't state that explicitly).
2. It gets "re-tuned" based on political objectives, and how those change, even as it is being executed.
3. In his comments about the 'enemy gets a vote' and the limited successes Iran has had with attacking via missiles and drones, he mentions "naked human will" - interesting turn of phrase as regards Iran's position. (I think this podcast was a day or two before the significant attacks on Gulf infrastructure).
4. He asserts "air supremacy" - I disagree (see my previous post as regards potential ground ops on the islands), but to put his point in context, when he was interviewed (about 6 days ago) there hadn't been much talk about ground ops yet and the substatntive movement of the 82d hadn't been seen yet...he was addressing the Air Campaign from a military point of view. He was careful not to stray into the political realm.
5. The SOH is a Joint Force challenge: not just the Navy, and not just the Air Component. This struck me as a careful allusion to there being a ground ops component to the Op Plan / Plan of Campaign, that has been getting adjusted and redone over the years.
Also, I found it interesting he referred to this as a Campaign, but I can see why he did that based on the jargon used on the Joint Staff and in Joint Doctrine.

As much as I dislike the nation of Pakistan, I hope that their PM is able to get the right people to step 2...and that may need to include the envoys from all of the Gulf States who are probably not pleased with being attacked.

For Ninthace:

No point in opening the SOH, if there is no trade left to pass through.

That's a bit of hyperbole. Opening SOH if only half of what was available last year is still available is still useful to a great many nations. But your core point, which I'll put into my own words as Iran's position being "if we are going to bleed, you are going to bleed" is agreed. Iran's capacity for denial (both sea denial in the strait and denial of economic assets) has not been degraded sufficiently.

There is no Easy Button.

[ORAC]

As much as I dislike the nation of Pakistan, I hope their PM is able to get the right people to step 2...and that may need to include the envoys from all of the Gulf States.

As a general comment - there is a lot of discussion pointing out that the politics of the other Gulf states is hardening against Iran.

They've seen how Iran has closed off the Strait of Hormuz and attacked them and the effective power they wield in the region and think that that is a genie that can't be put back in the bottle. Therefore the only choice is to finish them now whilst they have a chance, as they'll never have the option again once the USA stops fighting.

[Lyneham Lad]

A pair of Pegasus (Pegasii?) are on station just SW of the Azores, presumably playing mother to whatever is in transit.

[DogTailRed2]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Yes but is Iran capable of a set-piece battle to defend a vital asset? Is its military training and organisation such that its dispersed and mosaic nature can prevail against a surprise schwerpunkt operation using all the modern disinformation , cyberwarfare and shock and awe that the US forces have in their doctrine?.

Perhaps we shall see but I hope both sides can see that the current trajectory does neither side any favours.

That's the question isn't it. Taking Vietnam as an example the North Vietnamese Army either lost battles, or did not bother to attack the Americans because they knew they couldn't win. They played the long, political war which America ultimately lost.
Iran will be looking to play that same game.

[ORAC]

I only hope they've learnt from the Ukrainians and have plenty of jammers and drone interceptors.

https://x.com/visionergeo/status/203...978604854?s=20

​​​​​​​Iranian soldiers in underground trenches on Kharg Island are posting photos and stating that they are ready to repel a possible US landing.

Judging by the photo, the Iranians have already received FPV kamikaze drones produced by the Chinese company Shenzhen Beizao Innovation Technology Co., Ltd. This model is equipped with a 5.8 GHz frequency video transmission antenna.

The only threat that the US would face in a land operation - unlike Iranian standard conventional weapons - is precisely the large-scale use of medium-range FPV kamikaze drones within asymmetric warfare and ambushes carried out by operators… Otherwise, Iran does not have armored vehicles on land, nor can it offer organized resistance within the framework of standard infantry tactics against the US elite amphibious and land forces - especially considering they will have 100% air support…

Thus, if the US suffers losses in land clashes during the capture of the Strait of Hormuz islands, the vast majority will be caused by ambushes carried out by Iranian FPV drones… It is likely that Russian operators experienced in the Ukraine war are already on site.

[ORAC]

Awarded on 10th March.

Video

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/20...014116975?s=20

​​​​​​​U.S. Air Force Major Michael Blea was awarded the Silver Star for extraordinary heroism during combat operations, likely in support of Operation Epic Fury, in a ceremony on March 3, 2026, at Ramstein Air Base, Germany.

The Silver Star is the nation's third-highest military decoration for valor.

A pilot for the 480th Fighter Squadron based at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, Maj. Blea received this award for intentionally flying his F-16CJ "Fighting Falcon" into enemy fire to shield his fellow service members.

https://www.usafe.af.mil/News/Articl...oism-during-c/

Spangdahlem-based Airman awarded Silver Star for extraordinary heroism during combat operations

RAMSTEIN AIR BASE, Germany -- U.S. Air Force Maj. Michael “Danger” A. Blea, 480th Fighter Squadron assistant director of operations, assigned to the 52nd Fighter Wing at Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany, was awarded the Silver Star during a ceremony at Ramstein Air Base, Germany, March 3, 2026.

The presentation of the award recognized Blea’s extraordinary heroism in combat during his deployment to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in 2025. He now is one of fewer than 100 military personnel to earn the Silver Star since the U.S. Air Force was established as an independent military service in 1947.

U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jason T. Hinds, U.S. Air Force in Europe – Air Forces Africa commander, presented the nation’s third highest military decoration for valor in combat to Blea before both an in-person and virtual audience of Airmen, family members and distinguished guests.

According to the official citation, Blea distinguished himself through conspicuous gallantry while engaged in combat operations against enemy forces. Despite intense enemy fire and significant personal risk suppressing enemy air defenses, Blea, piloting his F-16 Fighting Falcon deliberately placed himself in harm’s way to lead and protect his team. During the engagement, Blea maintained situational awareness in a rapidly evolving and hostile environment, coordinated critical actions under fire, and ensured the safe movement and accountability of personnel. His decisive leadership and calm under pressure directly enabled mission accomplishment while preventing loss of life.

The citation credits his actions preserving combat effectiveness and safeguarding fellow service members during a moment of extreme danger.

"I am truly honored to be presented with a Silver Star,” Blea said. “While we never wish to be in these circumstances that put us in this position, it is always a possibility that we understand and that we are prepared to handle through the dedication and perfection that we strive to attain every day in training. The hard work and commitment allow the unpredictable situations to be manageable ones that we can and will overcome.”

Hinds emphasized both the magnitude of the actions described in the citation and the character behind them.

“We are here to award Maj. Michael Blea the Silver Star Medal for gallantry and action against an enemy of the United States, an honor that’s reserved for those whose courage under fire rises far above the call of duty,” Hinds said. “Danger's skill, his composure under pressure, allowed him to outmaneuver the threats, support his wingman and enable mission success.”

Among those in attendance was retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Jeffrey L. Harrigian, former commander of USAFE-AFAFRICA. Harrigian reflected on both Blea’s valor and the example he sets for future generations of Airmen. “This doesn’t happen without the team,” Harrigian said. “We have an incredible team. What you [Blea] all continue to deliver each and every day is demonstrated not only in this mission, but what the troops, the maintainers and everybody that it takes to generate a sortie, that was part of what you did.”

As the medal was pinned to his uniform, the audience responded with a standing ovation – a tribute to Blea’s courage, leadership and selfless service.

The Silver Star citation formally recognizes Blea’s actions exemplifying the highest traditions of military service and reflects great credit upon himself, his unit and the United States Air Force.

[ORAC]

Published by the Iranian Consulate in Mumbai:

https://x.com/IRANinMumbai/status/20...607655513?s=20

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

I thought they'd been doing this all along? Unless they've opened up the target list.

Video:

https://x.com/MOSSADil/status/2036781781647491430?s=20

​​​​​​​ISRAEL STRIKES KEY IRANIAN TARGETS IN TEHRAN

The Israeli Air Force has carried out multiple waves of airstrikes over Tehran, targeting Iranian regime military infrastructure, according to the IDF.

• Strikes focused on strategic regime-linked sites in the capital.

• Part of an ongoing campaign against Iran’s military capabilities.

• Marks a significant escalation deep inside Iranian territory.

Recent reports indicate these strikes are part of sustained operations targeting missile systems, command centers, and IRGC infrastructure.

[ORAC]

Video (In Farsi)

https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/20...303271724?s=20

​​​​​​​Iran is preparing to take over UAE with a ground invasion if the US put troops on the ground.

IRIB Iranian state TV:

“If the United States makes a mistake, Iran’s armed forces are ready to seize the coastlines of the UAE and Bahrain and reshape the region”

[DogTailRed2]

Originally Posted by ORAC

I only hope they've learnt from the Ukrainians and have plenty of jammers and drone interceptors.

Another proxy war.

[gums]

Salute!

About to move on to my other blogs, and then the preceding.... and I throw the "not quite so accurate flag". Nothing against the major, but scant details about the scenario and completely incorrect stat about the number of decorations.

Far, far more Silver Stars since 1947. My own class from the trade school has over 100. My C-flight from 'nam has 5 or 6 amongst us( all of us had two or more tours). Oh well.

Gums sends...

P.S. I was honored to fly Arnie's wing, my flight commander and best jet pilot I ever flew with. See:Colin Clarke - Hall of Valor: Medal of Honor, Silver Star, U.S. Military Awards

[ORAC]

A-10 strafing runs.

Videos

https://x.com/clashreport/status/203...903363336?s=20

​​​​​​​7 Iraqi Army soldiers were killed and 13 wounded after a U.S. airstrike hit the clinic and engineering department at the Habbaniyah base in Anbar.

The base, which is shared by the Iraqi Army and PMF/Hashd al-Shaabi, was struck in two consecutive U.S. attacks on March 24–25.

Baghdad called the strikes a serious violation of Iraqi sovereignty, especially because a military medical facility was hit, and has begun diplomatic and security consultations.

​​​​​​​Grok assessment:

@grok examine this claim and the video carefully, and share detailed information from trusted sources:

Grok: The Iraqi Defense Ministry confirms 7 soldiers killed & 13 wounded in today's airstrike on Habbaniyah base's military clinic & engineering unit (shared Iraqi Army/PMF site in Anbar). This follows yesterday's strike there killing 15 PMF fighters incl. a commander. Baghdad calls both violations of sovereignty & intl. law protecting medical sites.

Your video shows consistent post-strike rubble, smoke & uniformed personnel searching debris (matches rescue ops described by Rudaw, Anadolu Agency, Shafaq News, Al Jazeera). Main post's 1st vid depicts an A-10 aircraft (typical US close-air platform); 2nd matches site aftermath.

No US confirmation/denial yet; event <2hrs old. Sources: http://mod.gov.iq statements, Rudaw, AA, Al Jazeera reports.